Draft season is just around the corner and there is no better time than now to start breaking down NFL prospects. This class is packed with players that are going to make an impact at the next level. I will cover each and every one of them from the big dudes in the trenches to the erasers patrolling the secondary. Let’s get started with a prospect from the ACC, Payton Wilson of the North Carolina State Wolfpack.
The Background
Outside linebacker Payton Wilson was a four-star recruit from Orange High School in Hillsborough, North Carolina, where he won numerous awards, including Player of the Year & Male Athlete of the Year by the Raleigh News & Observer. Wilson had monster seasons as a junior (127 tackles, 39 TFLs, and 12 sacks) and senior (103 tackles, 21 TFLs, 10 sacks, with a pick-six, two PBUs, and a fumble recovery), as he finished his high school career for Orange Panthers with 26 games played, 266 total tackles (10.2 per game), 70 TFLs, 24 sacks, two interceptions, seven PBUs, one fumble recovery, and one blocked kick. He was a multisport athlete as he competed in lacrosse and won a state championship in wrestling.
Wilson was ranked 67th overall nationally by 247 Sports and chose to stay in state and play for the North Carolina Wolfpack. He enrolled at NC State in early January 2018 but missed all of spring practice rehabbing a knee injury suffered late in his senior high school year. He would be back for summer camp and unfortunately suffered a 2nd knee injury, resulting in a redshirt season. As a redshirt freshman in 2019, it wouldn’t take Wilson long to showcase his skills. He would lead the Wolfpack in tackles (69), despite only starting one game. He would finish the season with eleven games played, 69 total tackles, 36 solos, 52.9% solo rate, five TFLs, one interception, and four PBUs.
He was an All-ACC performer as r-sophomore in 2020, leading the conference with 10.8 tackles per game and finishing 4th in NCAA with 108 tackles. Wilson played in ten games that season and added 11½ TFLs, 3½ sacks, two interceptions, and three PBUs. Wilson had surgery on both shoulders during the offseason to clean up some things and coming off such a great year, he was named to the preseason Bednarik, Nagurski, and Butkus watch list as an R-junior. However, two games into the season, he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. He played in two games with totals of just five tackles, 1½ TFLs, and one sack.
He would miss all of spring practice rehabbing but would be ready at the season’s start and put together a solid campaign. The season wasn’t all rainbows as he left the first game of the year and missed the second. A determined Wilson was a semifinalist for Comeback Player of the Year, playing in eleven games and recording 82 total tackles, 38 solo stops, 46.3% solo rate, 12½ TFLs, 4½ sacks, one interception, and four PBUs. His 83 tackles would rank 3rd on the team and his 7.45 tackles per game was 15th best in the conference.
After not having the season that he wanted, Wilson decided to use his Covid year and return for another year with the Wolfpack. That turned out to be a great decision! After having terrible luck with injuries over his career, a healthy Wilson would save his best for last. He was named 2023 All-American 1st team, ACC Defensive Player of the Year, Butkus Award winner (Nation’s best LB), and the Bednarik Award winner (nation’s best defensive player). He put together a monster season for the Wolfpack, playing in all twelve games, recording 138 total tackles, 69 solo stops, 50% solo rate, 17½ TFLs, six sacks, three interceptions, nine PBUs, one pick-six, one forced fumble, and two recoveries.
Wilson finished his career at North Carolina State with 46 games played, 402 total tackles, 202 solos, 48 TFLs, 15 sacks, seven interceptions, 20 PBUs, 1 touchdown, one forced fumble, and two recoveries. He leaves the Wolfpack with 23 career double-digit tackle games and an 8.73 tackle-per-game average. One hell of a season and much deserved after having so many injuries in his career. Wilson graded out extremely high in my IDP rookie grading system with a BCR (Blue Chip Rating) of 18.72, IS (Impact Score) of 10.785, and a BPS (Big Play Score) of 2.043. All three are elite marks that rank among some of the best in the past few years.
Player Breakdown
When breaking down Payton Wilson’s game, you first have to address the concern of his injury history of multiple knee and shoulder issues. There is no way you can accurately do a breakdown and not include those. A big part of how teams evaluate him will depend a lot on what his medical results show. He tested at the combine so they will definitely go through those with a fine tooth comb! On the field, Wilson is the top linebacker prospect in this class. He has the length, athletic profile, and production that NFL teams covet. He measured in at 6’4”/233 lbs with a 4.43 sec (40-yd) and 34.5” vertical. Match that up with his film and you can see why he is such an impact player.
Wilson has good burst, lateral agility, and range that shows on almost every play, whether that’s playing the run, pass rush situations, or dropping in coverage. He’s a three-down linebacker with blitzing capabilities and can play both man and zone coverages. He has the production (48/15 TFL and sacks & 7/20 interception and PBUs) to back that up. Wilson isn’t a power guy, and injuries have certainly limited that. He is however solid as a run-and-hit type of player. Moves fluidly through traffic and attacks the ball aggressively. He can play too upright and with his height, that’s not a good combo, but correctable.
Wilson can be too dodgy as well, which can partly be blamed on his lack of strength and again injury history. With his speed that’s not a glaring weakness. Still, that’s a correctable flaw if he wants it to be. I like his aggressiveness but he has a tendency to overrun plays and/or miss tackles at times. He’s a little older prospect than most in this class but he’s also more experienced. While being a major tackle producer and very good in coverage situations, he’s surprisingly a really good pass rusher from the inside linebacker spot.
NFL & Fantasy Projection
Wilson is a 1st round linebacker, but the injury history will drop him somewhere in the second round. He’s a three-down linebacker and is at his best on the money-down situations, which teams need and love. There are some who feel rookie Edgerrin Cooper is the top linebacker of this class, and while he’s certainly talented, he isn’t as good overall as Wilson. The value that the NFL team that drafts Wilson is going to be crazy, considering that getting Wilson in the second round is like getting two first-round picks. If the injury issues stay behind Wilson, I can see him being an 8-10 year player who will play at a high level.
In the IDP world of fantasy football, Wilson is exactly the type of player that you are looking to add to your teams. Just like the NFL, you will have to decide if you believe the injuries are behind him. Early results show he is one of the top three defensive players and the first linebacker being taken off the board. For me, the injuries are what they are and I am more than willing to take the chance on getting a potential top option at the most important in any IDP format.
Thanks for reading my article. I am a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers of America). Follow me on Twitter at @HollywoodTitan, on Facebook on my IDPNation page, on Reddit in the fantasy football IDP sub — I’m user KingTitan1 — and tune in each week and listen to IDP Nation and Devy IDP Grind, the podcasts that I co-host, on several different platforms. Feel free to email or dm me with any questions that you have, as I’m always glad to help fellow IDPers. #IDPNation #IDP #IDPDevy
