Draft Dreamer: Walter Nolen

With the NFL season coming to a close and a new champion to be crowned in a couple of days, it’s now officially draft season. This is the chance for all teams to reset and fans to renew their hopes. If you have followed my work, then you know this is my favorite time of year and it’s never too early to start breaking down NFL Draft prospects. This class is packed with players that are going to make an impact at the next level. I will cover each one of them from the big dudes in the trenches to the erasers patrolling the secondary. Let’s get started with a prospect who everyone should have very high on their draft boards, Walter Nolen of the Ole Miss Rebels.

The Background

Walter Nolen was a five-star recruit at linebacker for the Powell Panthers in Powell, Tennessee. As a senior for the Panthers, he finished with 93 tackles, 74 solo stops, 87% solo rate, 33 TFLs, 17 sacks, 31 QB hurries, three PBUs, six forced fumbles, and one fumble recovery. 247Sports graded Carter as the #1 player in the state (TN), the #1 defensive lineman, and the 2nd best player overall in the 2022 class. Nolen would lead the Powell Panthers to a 13-2 record and a Class 5A state championship. He would receive 26 offers, all from the best teams in the country. Coming down the stretch it was a tough battle between Tennessee and Texas A&M for his services, but he would choose the Aggies in the end.

In his first season in College Station, Nolen would play in ten games, making four starts for the Aggies. His stat line for his freshman campaign would be 29 total tackles, 17 solo tackles, 2½ TFLs, one sack, one forced fumble, and one recovery. For his sophomore campaign, Nolen would begin to develop into one of the nation's best interior defenders with 12 games played, making ten starts for the Aggies with a box score of 37 total tackles, 20 solo stops, 54% solo rate, with 8½ TFLs, four sacks, and one PBU. Nolen would play two years (22’-23’) at Texas A & M with totals of 22 games played, 66 total tackles, 37 solo stops, 56% solo rate, 11 TFLs,  five sacks, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery, and one PBU.

During the off-season, Nolen would enter the transfer portal and make the move to join the Ole Miss Rebels. In his lone season with the Rebels, Nolen put together his best collegiate season with 13 games played, all starts, with 48 total tackles, 25 solo tackles, 52% solo rate, 14 TFLs, 6½ sacks, three PBUs, and two fumble recoveries. He would earn consensus All-American honors, one of 14 in school history, Outland Trophy finalist, Walter Camp, and Bednarik Award semifinalist. His 14 TFLs tied for the team lead and ranks 10th all-time in school history. Nolen’s 6½ sacks were 4th on the team and helped set the new team record of 52.  His 14 TFLs also helped set a new team record of 120. 

We haven’t seen numbers on my IDP Draft Grade Chart like Nolen’s single season at Ole Miss since that of Ed Oliver of the Houston Cougars in 2019. Nolen’s career numbers aren’t quite as good overall but if the upward trend to what we saw last season continues, Nolen is going to be a star at the next level for a long time. His single-season numbers last year at Ole Miss on my IDP Rookie Draft Grade spreadsheet are a BCR (Blue Chip Rating) of 13.344 and a BPI (Big Play Impact Score) of 1.961. His career PRS (Pass Rush Score) of .500 isn’t truly indicative of his pass rush abilities but is over double what it was at Texas A&M. 

Player Breakdown

Nolen is widely considered one of the best, if not the best interior defensive linemen in this draft class. His combination of size, speed, power, and explosiveness is only a piece of what separates him from the rest of the players at the position. It’s not every day that you see a player who is 6’3”/305 lbs and can show the versatility to play all along the defensive line and be one the best at any of those positions. Nolen is a trustworthy run-stopper with a potentially high floor as a pass rusher. That ability and skill set from the interior makes him an elite prospect in this year's draft class. I rarely do player comps, but think Bryan Bresee or better potential with Nolen projections.

Naturally, his strength and power stand out first and foremost, but when I watch his tape it’s his burst and first-step quickness that pop off the screen to me the most. That instant type of explosion puts the offensive lineman on skates instantly and gives him the upper hand from the jump. He has violent hands, shooting his hands and using a variety of swipes and rips to further put pressure on offensive linemen. Again his power and strength show up big versus the run at the point of attack and when anchoring down. You’ll be hard-pressed to find a more fundamentally sound player at his size. Nolen’s quickness which I mentioned earlier really stands out when he’s involved with slants or stunts.

As a Pass rusher, Nolen still has some improvements to make, but he can dominate when presented with one-on-one matchups. Would like to see his toolbox in that area expanded and he’s been working on that. If his current upward trend continues as a pass rusher, he will be a problem on the interior. Once he gets to the NFL, I expect elite coaching to take him to another level in this phase of the game. As a run defender, he can be a bit too quick to disengage at times and lose the initial advantages that he’s created for himself. These types of things can be easily addressed. There have been and will be questions about his weight control, but he’s done a really great job of keeping that under control.

NFL & Fantasy Projection

The combination of size, talent, and effort for Nolen is unmatched. Yes, he can play a little inconsistent at times and needs some more polishing of his game overall, but the potential and upside for Nolen are off the charts. I can’t wait to see how he tests at the NFL Combine in a few months and I expect his draft stock to skyrocket. You just don’t find players this size, with his athleticism, talent,t and proven production. Nolen has first-round talent and I could easily see him pushing to be a Top 15 selection on draft day. Outside of QB and EDGE, games are won in the trenches and he’s the type of talent you just can’t let pass you by.

In the world of IDP fantasy football, you first must know the type of leagues you play in. For example, are the leagues general position or position-specific? That alone affects his fantasy football value. For me, I play almost exclusively the latter and in those types of leagues, Nolen will be highly sought after. The position premiums alone make the IDL positions just soo valuable and a player such as Nolen who can have a major impact is few and far in between. Even with that, don’t go overspending or reaching for Nolen. As talented as he is and depending on the roster size, and starter limits, I feel that a 4th round pick is fair value for him. I would be comfortable spending a pick as high as a 3rd rounder for him in certain leagues and situations.

Thanks for reading my article. I am a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers of America). Follow me on Twitter at @HollywoodTitan, on Facebook on my IDPNation page, on Reddit in the fantasy football IDP sub — I’m user KingTitan1 — and tune in each week and listen to IDP Nation and Devy IDP Grind, the podcasts that I co-host, on several different platforms. Feel free to email or dm me with any questions that you have, as I’m always glad to help fellow IDPers. #IDPNation #IDP #IDPDevy