With the start of the NFL season just around the corner, training camps are open and rosters beginning to take shape, it’s time to closely examine which IDP rookies could make an immediate impact. Which teams are going to jump-start the clock and roll with rookies? One team that will be starting an IDP rookie is the Tennessee Titans, with LB Cedric Gray.
Rewind to the Past
Cedric Gray spent four years at the University of North Carolina where he was a 2X All-ACC 1st team selection and a Butkus Award semifinalist for the Tar Heels. As a true freshman, he played in all 12 games but most of his play reps came on special teams with only three tackles of record. Gray would get his breakout opportunity as a sophomore for the Tar Heels. He would play in 13 games, making 11 starts, with 100 total tackles, 53 solo stops, 53% soo rate, seven TFLs, 2½ sacks, two interceptions, five PBUs, one forced fumble, and one fumble recovery. His 100 tackles (7.69 per game) would lead the team and rank tied for 4th nationally. Gray would finish the season with at least eight or more tackles in seven of the final eight games and included five games in double-digit tackles.
Gray would follow that breakout season with what was his best overall year with the Tar Heels. He would be a 1st team All-ACC selection and named the team's Defensive MVP. Gray played and started all 14 games, while leading the ACC in both tackles (145) and solo tackles (82), with adding 12 TFLs, one sack, two interceptions, eight PBUs, three forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries. He finished the season ranked in the top three in NCAA in tackles (3rd), solo tackles (2nd), and forced fumbles (8th). Gray averaged 10.35 tackles per game and at least eight or more tackles in eleven of the 14 games, and included six games in double-digit tackles.
Gray would put together another spectacular season as a senior, earning 1st team All-ACC honors for a second time and being a Butkus Award semifinalist. He started and played in all 12 games with totals of 121 total tackles (10.08 per game), 64 solo tackles, eleven TFLs, five sacks, one interception, five PBUs, two forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries. Gray would lead the ACC in total tackles and solo stops while finishing 3rd in assisted tackles. Gray had nine games with at least eight or more tackles in eleven of the 14 games and included five games in double-digit tackles. He finished his Tar Heel career with 51 games played, making 37 starts, 369 total tackles, 199 solo tackles, 30 TFLs, 8½ sacks, five interceptions, 18 PBUs, six forced fumbles, and five fumble recoveries. Gray also finishes career with a 7.23 tackle per game average and 16 double-digit tackle performances.
Back to the Future
The Tennessee Titans drafted Gray in the 4th round of the 2024 NFL draft with the 106th overall pick. With the lack of both talent and depth on defense, especially at linebacker, this was clearly the right pick. The Titans brought in free agent Kenneth Murray to replace Azeez Al-Shaair and have Jack Gibbens (entering 3rd year) as their most experienced returning starter. As you can see the Titans had to find some talent and depth at the position. The biggest questions that I see are how confident in and how long will the new coaching staff stay with Gibbens and how fast can Gray learn and be ready? In my personal opinion, they will stay with Gibbens as long as he’s being productive and the Titans are still in the playoff race. Once either of those falter, they will want to see exactly what they have in Gray.
The Titans got one of the most productive linebackers in this draft class and one that they will develop into what they want at the position. Gray has good size (6’1”/235 lbs), with decent speed (4.64 sec) and athleticism. He isn’t an elite type player but does everything very well and is always seemingly in a position to make plays. Not being a one-dimensional player will be huge for Tennessee as they can use Gray to help take advantage of matchups. Gray is a proven production player who has very good length and pursuit speed, all of which are needed to play LB. He can be a handful to block when he’s shooting downhill into gaps and understands how and when to use angles to the ball. Gray is lacking in the power department, which shows up as he struggles to take on/disengaging from blocks. His power can be improved with some work.
Fantasy Breakdown
How and when Gray is used will depend on how well the season is going for the Titans. Can Gibbens hold off the rookie? How long will Tennessee stay in the playoff hunt? And don’t forget (knock on wood) any injuries that could pop up. Gray will start as a backup/special teams player, but as the third linebacker of this group, he still should see plenty of reps. His only competition is Gibbens and if he can outperform him and be consistent, I don’t see how the Titans can keep him off the field. The training camp battles between Gibbens and Gray should be at the top of your must-pay-attention list. For me, if Gray is outperforming Gibbens, I think you have to let him be the starter or at the least play in a heavy rotation.
For those of us who drafted Gray, we did so with the thought process that he would start sooner rather than later. Of course, we want him to start right away but don’t be discouraged if that doesn’t happen. Be patient and play the long game with Gray and you will be rewarded. As a full-time starter, he will be a lock for 100 tackles and that’s what we’re looking for. He’s good in coverage so there will be some opportunities for him to contribute to the box score in those areas and anything he gives you as a pass rusher is just icing on the cake. When the Titans decide to roll with the rookie, make sure you are too.
Gray is coming off the board at an average pick of 46.9 and is the 4th linebacker being selected. He is also drafted as the 15th overall IDP rookie in rookie drafts. That puts Gray being drafted in the early to mid-4th round of rookie drafts and for me, that’s great value for a player at a premium IDP position who will be a starter. Gary is a must-add for your IDP portfolios and has a great investment price for the IPO (Initial Public Offering) of his stock. The return value for Gray projects is high and one that should help fantasy managers for a long time.
All stats provided by Pro Football Reference
Thanks for reading my article. I am a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers of America). Follow me on Twitter at @HollywoodTitan, on Facebook on my IDPNation page, on Reddit in the fantasy football IDP sub — I’m user KingTitan1 — and tune in each week and listen to IDP Nation and Devy IDP Grind, the podcasts that I co-host, on several different platforms. Feel free to email or dm me with any questions, as I’m always glad to help fellow IDPers. #IDPNation #IDP #IDPDevy
