One of the hardest things to do as a fantasy manager is to sell high on a player after a breakout or record-setting season and then sell for a premium, especially if you drafted the player and watched him develop into a stud. However, they are times when the return value of a player is just too good to pass on. You have to decide what’s best for your teams and hope you’re right. Let's take a look at why I believe selling high on Daron Payne is the right move for fantasy managers
The Past
The Washington Commanders selected Payne in the 1st round with the 13th overall pick of the 2018 NFL draft. Payne played his college ball for the Alabama Crimson Tide for three seasons (15’-17’) where he become a star interior defensive lineman. While his overall numbers may not show just how impactful he was, he shined the brightest when the lights of the big stage were on. Payne posted career numbers of 44 games played. 102 tackles, 39 solos, five TFLs, three sacks, one interception, six PBUs, one forced fumble, and two fumble recoveries. Again not eye-popping numbers I agree.
Where Payne stood out was in the back-to-back college football playoffs. In the 2016 semi-finals, he made four tackles while helping Alabama hold the high-powered Washington Huskies to a measly 44 rushing yards and 194 total yards of offense. In the finals versus the Clemson Tigers, Payne tied a personal best in tackles with five, while adding a ½ sack and helping hold the Tigers to just 91 rushing yards. The box score won’t show his entire performance, but if you watched the games, you saw just how disruptive he was with his constant eating of double teams and pressures on the QB.
In the 2017 playoffs, Payne was a wrecking ball where he earned Defensive Player of the Game in both the All-State Sugar Bowl (semifinals vs Clemson) and the National Championship Game (vs Georgia). In the semifinals, he filled the boxscore with one of the more impressive performances I have seen from an interior defensive lineman. In that game, he had quite the night as he recorded two tackles, numerous pressures, one interception that he returned for 21 yards to set up an Alabama score, and one PBU and even came in on a goal line package and caught his first career touchdown.
Payne saved his best performance for last. He would help lead the Crimson Tide to a national championship with another MVP performance. In that game versus the Georgia Bulldogs, Payne would register six tackles all against the run, as he spent the entire game in the Bulldog backfield. He helped hold Georgia’s dynamic RB duo (Sony Michel, Deandre Swift, & Nick Chubb) who was averaging over 215 rush yards per game to 133 on the night. With this two-game playoff performance, Payne literally sent his draft stock skyrocketing.
The Present
Payne has played all along the defensive front (NT, DT, DE) for the Commanders over his career and that versatility has served him and the ball club well. As a rookie and in his second season, he played mostly as a nose tackle, a position that doesn’t get the praise it deserves. Over those two seasons, he played in 31 games, while making 25 starts. He posted back-to-back seasons of 56 tackles, with a total of 112 tackles, 67 solo stops, nine TFLs, 12 QB hits, seven sacks, and five PBUs, with one fumble forced and one recovery. Payne earned a spot on the NFL All-Rookie team in 2018.
In his third season, he would make the move over to left defensive tackle. He started all 16 games while registering totals of 54 tackles, 27 solo stops, seven TFLs, eight QB hits, three sacks, three forced fumbles, and one recovery. The following year, he would flip to the right defensive tackle spot where he started all 17 games for the Commanders. Payne would record his first of two 60-tackle seasons with 35 solos, six TFLs, 15 QB hits, 4½ sacks, and one fumble recovered. His tackle, solos, and QB hits would set new personal best marks as a pro.
In his five seasons with the Washington Commanders, Payne has helped them become one of if not the top defensive lines in the NFL. He has steadily gotten better each season and this year he has performed at an elite level. Payne has registered 50-plus tackles each year, including a personal best of 64 this season. During his first four seasons with the team, he produced 14½ sacks in 64 games played, while this season alone he had 11½ sacks in 17 games. This past season was been an impressive one for Payne. To go along with his new personal-best tackle and sack records, he has also set new marks in TFLs (18), QB hits (20), and PBUs (5). Quite the season for an interior defensive lineman.
The Future
What does the future look like for Payne? Well, one thing is for certain. The man is going to get a huge payday! Whether that comes from Washington in form of an extension (which they passed on last year btw) or the franchise tag, or he hits free agency and some team pays him big money. If he leaves Washington via free agency, what does that look like for Payne going forward? For me I want him to stay in Washington and so do the Commanders, although it will cost them more this year. The team hasn’t had a lot to hang its hat on recently, but one of the league’s best defensive fronts has been one of them and Payne is a big part of that. We know what he can do on this team and that’s huge for us fantasy managers.
If he does leave, where he lands will be the most important to us fantasy managers. There aren’t many teams that have the successful defensive line that Washington has. Even those that do (49ers & Bills instantly come to mind), is there a need for them to really go after Payne, not likely. How will he fit in with his would-be new team? What would his role be? Do they have a track record of success on defense? There will be so many questions and uncertainty about Payne if he goes to another team.
There is one more thing I’d like to bring up and that is the dreaded payday letdown. Let me explain! He was an above-average player mostly in college but at the end of his career, he busted out with that unforgettable playoff showing, which he parlayed into a huge payday at the draft. Then in his first four years with Washington, he has an above-average player with the potential for more. Now this year he’s in a contract year and has a huge season, that will pay him another big contract. It’s happened numerous times in NFL history. Do you remember Albert Haynesworth leaving Tennessee for Washington after a big season, then him falling off the map? I’m not saying that’s what will happen with Payne but it is worth noting if he leaves the Commanders.
I will be watching this situation very closely this off-season and if Washington can’t get him re-signed and it looks like he will hit free agency, then I will sell my shares of him where I can get max value. His value will never be higher this offseason than it will be for the next month and a half. It’s simple, he stays in Washington you hold onto him but if he leaves you sell.
All stats provided by Pro Football Reference
Thanks for reading my article. I am a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers of America). Follow me on Twitter at @HollywoodTitan, on Facebook on my IDPNation page, on Reddit in the fantasy football IDP sub — I’m user KingTitan1 — and tune in each week and listen to IDP Nation and Devy IDP Grind, the podcasts that I co-host, on several different platforms. Feel free to email or dm me with any questions, as I’m always glad to help fellow IDPers. #IDPNation #IDP #IDPDevy
