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Sept. 10, 2022

Year 3 Breakout Candidate: AJ Epenesa

Year 3 Breakout Candidate: AJ Epenesa

In this article, I have a year three breakout player that you should be considering adding to your IDP rosters. Maybe you didn’t draft as well as you hoped. Maybe you waited too long to draft for the position. Or maybe you’ve already been hit with an injury or the dreaded position change. Whatever the reason, I have a great suggestion at the defensive end that you can add off of waivers that will help stabilize your team.

 

The Buffalo Bills selected defensive end  Aj Epenesa from the Iowa Hawkeyes, in the 2nd round of the 2020 NFL draft with the 54th overall pick. In three seasons with the Hawkeyes, Epenesa played in 37 games and recorded 101 total tackles, 61 being solos, 36 TFLs, 26½ sacks, nine forced fumbles, one fumble recovery that was returned for a TD, and seven PBUs. In 2018, as a sophomore, he led the Big10 conference in sacks (10½) and forced fumbles (4), with each of those totals finishing in the top ten of the NCAA. A year later as a junior, Epenesa would rank 3rd in the conference with 11½ sacks and would finish his career ranked 1st on Iowa’s all-time sack list and 6th on the conference's with 26½.

Provided by: Sports Reference College Football

 

The Bills drafted Epenesa to be one of the cornerstone pieces of their defense. In his first two years with the team, he played in 28 of 32 games, making just one start. Over that span, he played 621 defensive snaps (34%) and 223 special teams snaps (30%). During that span he produced a total of just 28 total tackles, 19 being solos, five TFLs, 13 QB hits, 2½ sacks, two PBUs, and a 14.2% missed tackle rate. I know that’s not eye-popping numbers, but keep in mind there were other contributing factors. One he was buried on the depth chart behind veterans such as Mario Addison and Jerry Hughes, both of who are now gone. The Bills also dabbled with playing Epenesa at outside linebacker or standing up which isn’t his best strong suit.

 

Now we head into year three and it appears the light switch has been flipped. The Bills have a number of youngsters along their d-line but Epenesa seems to have found his spot, which is opposite the young gun Gregory Rousseau. With Addison and Hughes now gone, there is an opening, and Epenesa has taken advantage of the opportunity. The Bills moved him back to the defensive end, his more natural fit in the 4-3 scheme. Go back and watch his film at Iowa and you will clearly see that’s where he excels. He’s had a terrific preseason and while most preseason content doesn’t matter, for Epenesa it’s been a prelude to this season’s success.

 

In the season opener versus the LA Rams, he played 36 defensive snaps (54%) with just 3 special teams snaps (16%). In that game, he produced two tackles, one solo, four QB hits, and 1½ sacks. As you can see with the increased rep count, his production has gone up. With him playing more in his natural position and an increase in reps, his production has exploded. If he can keep this pace remains to be seen, but if you’re looking for help at the defensive end position, Epenesa is a great buy-low option that can score way above his predicted value. He can be picked up off of waivers in almost every league, so grab him now before it’s too late.

 

Thanks for reading my article. I am a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers of America). Follow me on Twitter at @HollywoodTitan, on Facebook on my IDPNation page, on Reddit in the fantasy football IDP sub — I’m user KingTitan1 — and tune in each week and listen to IDP Nation and Devy IDP Grind, the podcasts that I co-host, on several different platforms. Feel free to email or dm me with any questions that you have, as I’m always glad to help fellow IDPers. #IDPNation #IDP #IDPDevy.