Transcript
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Good morning everybody. It's Sunday morning, eight o'clock. This is the Moneymatter
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Show with Dean Greenberg. Every time
we do the show, we do appreciate
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those that listen. If you're not
listening today, you know where to go
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next time. Well, if you're
listening today but you can't listen another time,
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you know where to go. Just
go to our website. We have
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them all put on podcasts and you
can listen. If you can't get If
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you don't go to a website,
just go to any of your podcast places.
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We're on there too. It's Money
Matters with Dean Greenberg, and you
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can hear our show. So what
will happen this week? Well, we
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had a pretty good week running up
after last week into the to Friday.
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We made another week another all time
new high in the S and P five
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hundred. So that's that's good stuff, right, because this week we showed
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again for some reason, that interest
rates are probably not gonna be able to
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come down. The jobs was stronger
than expected. Unemployment kicked up to four
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percent. I don't know if that
always makes sense, right, More jobs,
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but unemployment goes up, So do
you really believe those numbers? I
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don't know. It's just like inflation. Oh in flace, she's only three
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four percent. Well, you know, go to the store, go buy
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stuff. It's not a person I
talk to that says that the discretionary income
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is so way down. They are
spending so much money. They don't know
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where it's going. They had to
keep looking at their budgets and say,
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oh, man, look how much
food is gone, how much this has
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gone on, how much that's gone
up. But yet somehow, when you
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listen to the White House and the
administration, they're doing a great job.
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On a side note there, why
do they even hold these congressional hearings.
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You put doctor Fauci on there,
and all you have is a love affair
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with the Democrats and the Republicans telling
them how much they hey and all.
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Obviously, everyone who believes the right
is going to stay on the right.
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Everyone on the left don't even do
it. Don't even waste our money unless
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you're going to let people be independent
thinkers and really really decide which side they're
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on, because you can't tell the
difference between lying and the truth anymore.
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And if you think about it,
that's why everyone's still backing Trump. Trump
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has gained so much more money,
so much more support for going through that
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sham trial. But all you have
on the other side is people going,
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how can you vote for a convicted
felon. It's because we don't believe it
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was fair and people don't believe those
things, and just say, oh,
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you're in a cult, you're this, you're that. You know what.
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I'm so tired of listening to people
say the wrong things. We just need
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to get out and we need to
vote, and we got to get things
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changed. But I want the entire
Congress to change. I want politics on
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the local levels to change. I
want people to be able to be able
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to be independent thinkers, be independent
and really do what they think is right
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for the constituents, not just fight
for one little group you come in there,
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yes you're fighting, but you have
to go ahead and understand. We
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are a country split down the middle, but yet we are probably more in
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the middle with seventy percent of our
people than the media. Lets us think
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there's extreme left, extreme right.
That's all you pretty much hear about.
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There's a lot of people on the
right to believe some things. On the
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left, there's a lot of people
on the left that believe something's on the
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right, which squeezes it right in
the middle, because there's not one person
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that says we don't need to do
something about the border. The problem we
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have. We can't do anything about
the border as individuals, and they fight
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about it, they make it political, but not one side has a solution
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to bring them across the border.
Not one side gets us that solution on
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how we're going to take care of
them, where the money's going to come
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from, and how are they going
to be beneficial to the American people.
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I am tired of just saying we
have to do this, that's humanitarian.
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We have to take care of everybody
that's in these countries as well as China
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a bad country now because some we
are away. We have twenty five thousand
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Chinese Vietnamese coming across the border,
Indonesian Nigerians. These aren't just the people
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coming up from these from countries that
are are impovershed. These are people coming
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from countries that don't believe the way
we do. They're infiltrating our country.
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But we have no way, no
way of being able to say what we
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need to do to a solution as
we let them here and we don't even
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want to. We don't even have
a way to stop them. Oh,
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we'll let twenty five hundred come through
a day, come through where that's what
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I want in the heir come through. Where. How are you gonna stop
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them coming across the border with the
cartels? Are you gonna put the wall
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up? You're gonna keep Mexico.
Isn't it interesting how everything that Trump wanted
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to do is now the right thing
to do, But as soon as Biden
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got in, it was the wrong
thing to do, and it was wrong.
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But they're gonna do it the right
way. They're gonna do it.
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Then you know your hear Well,
we're not gonna separate babies from their families.
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Okay, what are you gonna do
with the babies that don't belong to
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the families? But they say that
the families. When you vet them in,
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you realize that's not their family.
What are you gonna do? Keep
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them together? His family because they
say the family. Wake up people and
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understand it is a business for the
cartel to be smuggling these people across the
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border. That's what it is.
And while they're bringing these people across the
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border, don't think they're not bringing
drugs and everything else that you can bring
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in that don't belong here, not
to mention the gangsters that are coming in
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and wrecking habit in our big cities
and getting off, but yet they're worried
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about a business expense. We have
switched to America towards a very, very
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bad course. We are becoming a
country that's imploding within. And that's figuratively
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and it's going to happen reality because
we're going to see all these people coming
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in that are going to end up
being arrist acts down the road unless we
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get somebody in that cleans up what
we have here, stops them from coming
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in, and has a real process
of bringing people to be citizens of the
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United States. There's no way we
can release these immigrants coming in that can't
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speak calling any English, don't have
any skills, aren't educated, don't know
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the American values. But yet we
put him out there and then we give
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him money, we give him credit
cards, and now he's going to stop
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the border. But he never said
how how are we going to stop?
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How were we going to keep him
ill legally coming across the border. You
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have to put up a barricade,
and you have to give the enforcement people
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the ability to go do what they
need to do. That's what they need
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to do, and with that we
can start building our economy and stabilizing it.
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Yes, the markets are doing well, and yes, you know we
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got employment, we got all this
stuff. But people, any type of
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attack within is going to destabilize our
economy. And that's what China and Russia
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and Iran and all these other countries
that want to make us be knocked down
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a few pegs. No, that's
how they get to us, bring down
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our economy. That's a black Swan
event. If you look back just to
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two thousand and one, you got
to believe they've been planning something. You
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can hear it in the FBI's voices
when they say stuff, you gotta be
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worried, you got to be this. You know this chatter. You know
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that they know some things. But
where's the protection coming. And we keep
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letting people in. So that needs
to change, and when that changes,
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will be in much better shape of
having to deal with what we have to
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do with everything else. So interest
rates were the big thing this week,
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okay for some reason because they think
that inflation is slowed a little bit.
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It's really just maintaining that our unemployment
report would come in and say, hey,
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everything's great. They're going to be
able to lower interest rates the Federal
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Reserve. It didn't happen. We
had a lot more jobs created than they
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expected. So the market's though held
in there. Why the markets hold in
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there because they're realizing that the economy
will still have good earnings and that they
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keep raising earnings pictures. That means
the prices of the stocks and the companies
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can go up. What interest rates
does when it comes down, it does
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help stocks like the small companies because
if you saw the Rustle two thousand was
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doing great up until Friday. It
helps tech companies, startups, that's who
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it helps them. Also, when
those interest rates don't happen boom, the
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money flows out flows into more stable
type stocks, industrials, utilities. I
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still think utilities have a long way
to go. Why do I say that.
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I say that because we're going to
need more and more electricity, more
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generation of electricity to be able to
handle more electric cars, more electric trucks,
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buses, a more electric type of
society. It's got to come from
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somewhere. Well, there's no doubt
that AI is going to be able to
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help it. There's no doubt that
most industries, if they want to survive,
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are going to have to go in
that direction. Every industry is going
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to have to learn AI and how
it helps them, otherwise they're going to
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be extend I said this before.
We've had transformations in my life that have
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really changed the world. But if
you go back a long time ago,
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like my grandmother used to say,
and she was born in nineteen hundred,
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the transportations that she saw was like
the automobile, the industrial revolution, Okay,
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airplanes. Those were the big things
that changed in her life. What
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have we seen. We've seen computers, they were they changed people's lives.
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The way we communicate through the internet
change people's lives. The internet, our
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smartphones was the next big innovative thing
that created an incredible industry. But what
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went away was, you know,
the actual hardware, the hardware and computers
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went away. The hardware and phones. You still need phones, but that's
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not where the money is. The
money is in the technology of the speed
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of computers. The technology is in
the programs, the apps on the phones.
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The smart phone, it's what's inside
it, the chips that make that
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phone so transformative. Well, now
we're in twenty twenty four, and I
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know it started a couple years ago, but now for the next five,
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six, seven years, a transformation
of our country, our lives is in
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the hands of artificial intelligence. Now
there's going to be bad, I hope
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there's more good. But every industry
that's going to have AI is going to
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flourish. It's going to save money, it's going to cut back on waste,
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it's going to save on labor.
It's going to go ahead and be
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creative and be able to help market. It's gonna change so many things.
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You know, we had the robots
and stuff and they're good, but to
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s AI is going to really,
really, really change the way we live,
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we think, we interact. So
everything involved with artificial intelligence, it's
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gonna be good. But for artificial
intelligence to work in the health industry,
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transportation industry, the farming industry,
the services industry, you name it,
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it has to come from the chips. And yeah, you got you got
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AMD, you got micro and you
got you know, super micro computers.
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You got a bunch of them,
right, but who's the leader of them
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all? You got the video and
what was amazing about in the VIDIA more
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than the fact they're gonna split ten
for one tomorrow on Monday, it's the
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fact that they came out in the
last three months with two more chips that
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are even more advanced than the other
ones that they have, which means the
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people that aren't even there where they're
with their their chip, they're selling crazy
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when they get to that level.
The video is already two steps ahead of
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them. So people say, how
do you hold on to it? You
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know, it's not for everybody.
It's very you know, it's gonna it
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was speculative that now that's turned into
a type of product that you can hold
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on to because it's something that's being
used. But it's sometimes just like Cisco
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and Intel and IBM, it will
be coming in more of an industrial if
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they don't stay ahead of the game, or somebody else will come up with
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something. But right now, for
the next six months, year, two
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years, maybe the video is the
leader in the industry and they will continue
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to be. And that's why you
can hold on. Now with the split,
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will they go up again, I
don't know. It's probably gonna fall
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off like they usually do, some
profit taking, but then it gets cheaper
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for people to do it. So
it holds in there a little bit better.
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That's mechanics. But if they keep
growing and selling and have the ability
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to go ahead and and and meet
demand, their profit levels continue to grow
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and grow and grow, which could
make them pass Apple as the biggest company
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around. That says something. Now, if you look at navidia O the
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chips, you look at Apple,
they become a much bigger, more diversified
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company. So at some time,
will Apple, Google, Microsoft come up
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with their own chips. I don't
know. I'm sure there's gonna be some
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collaboration and different things. Can Can
NAVIDI just go to the moon? No?
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But can it have more room to
grow for six months a year?
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Probably? It takes time to build
these factories. It takes time to develop,
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and no one has it's time when
they want to keep up pace with
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everybody. So you keep looking at
that and saying, wow, that's amazing.
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But I'm telling you artificial intelligence is
transformational and it will change what we're
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doing over the next five to seven
years and the things that are going to
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come across we don't care and imagine
you know they've been working on, you
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know, driving, autonomous driving.
These chips will make that even better.
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Autonomous driving is actually very very important, especially as a population continues aging.
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People want to drive when they're seventy
five, eighty eighty five, even ninety
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years old, but our reflexes might
be getting a little bit less as we
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get that up in age. Can
you imagine just being able to get in
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the car and have the car you
just tell them where you want to go,
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and it takes you there safely.
That's what these this market will take
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it. And that's just a simple
thing. Think about healthcare. What AI
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is going to do for healthcare,
which means we're gonna live longer, We're
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gonna detect things sooner. Imagine walking
in and just getting a scan, and
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the AI looks at everything and can
tell you where you're vulnerable, so you
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can be preventive of what can be
happening. You can tell you how your
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knees wearing out, your elbows wearing
out, oh, your blood vessels,
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your heart, so you can do
things beforehand. Now, obviously you can
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do things now with MRIs and stuff, but imagine the level of intelligence that
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this can do. The electrical grids. Then we're gonna need so much more
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electricity. What is AI going to
be able to do for us water,
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can they came up come up with
that can help us with that power?
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Air transportation, imagine every single way
that maybe AI can make that experience more
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streamlined, easier, being able to
anticipate how many people are going to not
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show up, or how many people
are going to show up, should we
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have another plane, should we not
have another plane? Rather than have a
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person trying to think this out,
AI will be so much smarter than them.
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Game planning, think about sports,
Wow, think about that planning a
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game right, planning, offense,
defense, You plug things in. I
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know they're using it now, but
imagine the level to be able to use
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00:18:48.359 --> 00:19:02.359
it at interactions. Planning a wedding, traveling you know, this is what
220
00:19:02.400 --> 00:19:03.759
I like to do, This is
what I want to do. They put
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a whole trip together for you.
Put me at hotels. I don't want
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to spend more than five hundred dollars
a night at a hotel. Finds the
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hotels for you. It's amazing the
way things are going to work. Look
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where we are today, where we
were just thirty years ago. Think about
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how the first computer was with the
punch cards in those big rooms. Just
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to do some arithmetic and where we
are now. So as we move forward,
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those are the areas you want to
concentrate in for growth. But you
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ask me why the markets can continue
higher, These are why the markets continue
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higher. We also in the month
of an election. You're here with June,
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July, and August are the best
months. But I'm going to put
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00:19:52.440 --> 00:19:59.960
a caveat in there. Eighty percent
of the time from June twenty ninth,
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June nineteenth, June nineteenth to June
twenty eighth, the market as a June
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swoon. Eighty percent of the time
the markets went down that time. So
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if you're a trade to think about
that as these markets rally, if they
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rally into that period of time,
and I think the markets can rally,
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we keep making new highs. I
think we have the ability to get to
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about fifty four thirty fifty four fifty
on this run back and forth, as
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long as we keep our lows higher
than where we were we before, and
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00:20:29.519 --> 00:20:33.759
as we move up we make higher
highs. And then from that level,
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00:20:33.799 --> 00:20:36.799
I think if we, you know, probably take a little pause or something,
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I think we can end up somewhere
around fifty six hundred, give it
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take fifty points on the s and
P. Five hundred doesn't seem like a
243
00:20:42.680 --> 00:20:45.400
lot from here, but it's three
four percent more. But if you get
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00:20:45.440 --> 00:20:49.039
it on a pullback of two three
percent, then that's a six to seven
245
00:20:49.079 --> 00:20:55.720
percent rally you can get if you
get into the indexes. Then sometime in
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00:20:55.759 --> 00:20:57.880
August, if we do get to
fifty six hundred fifty six hundred on the
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00:20:57.920 --> 00:21:03.960
SMP, we're gonna be talking about
mitigating risk again. We took off of
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00:21:03.000 --> 00:21:08.400
mitigating of risk back down around our
five thousand level, looking for a rally
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coming through the summer. We get
that rally, we'll mitigate risk again.
250
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We do have some cash. If
we have this June swoon, I will
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be putting to work. The markets
go up and down. You cannot plan
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for a black swan event. Unless
the black swan event comes from when we
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00:21:33.279 --> 00:21:42.759
are over stretched to the upside.
Then just normal mitigating risk will help protect
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your portfolio. At some time,
the markets will turn down again from what
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00:21:48.799 --> 00:21:51.799
level is hard to tell. I
think we can go up to around that
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00:21:51.839 --> 00:21:56.519
fifty six fifty six to fifty level
and I'll become a lot more cautious because
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then valuations will mean something again.
Plus I don't think September, October,
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November going into the election is going
to be anything but sideways. Why Because
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00:22:07.920 --> 00:22:12.119
there's a big stark difference between Trump
and Biden getting in and I'm just talking
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about their agendas. I'm talking about
their taxation, I'm talking about spending money,
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00:22:19.200 --> 00:22:25.920
I'm talking about wars, I'm talking
about foreign policies. It's a stark
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00:22:26.279 --> 00:22:30.359
difference. How to handle the border
is different, how to handle inflation is
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different. How to make demands on
electric cars and telling oral micas this is
264
00:22:33.680 --> 00:22:37.799
what we need is different. How
we handle industries in America is different.
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How we handle the energy in America
is different between the two. But the
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biggest difference is taxation. We all
know in twenty twenty five, the Trump
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taxes reduction that he put in expires
in January twenty five. And when that
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happens, everybody's tax brackets go up, everybody's tax reckets go up, and
269
00:23:03.240 --> 00:23:11.559
the small businesses get hurt from that
twenty thousand dollars deductible. Think about that
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00:23:15.079 --> 00:23:18.960
small business will get hurt from the
deductible they get from the from the Trump's
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00:23:18.960 --> 00:23:26.359
taxation. Why do you want to
hurt these businesses? You see he doesn't
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00:23:26.400 --> 00:23:29.799
say he's gonna raise taxes. He
just lets these expire and go back.
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Corporate taxes go up, they start
looking to go other places. Again.
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This is how these things work.
The biggest thing we're gonna have to worry
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about is from the Inflation Reduction Acts
is Medicare. And we're gonna keep talking
276
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more and more about this because Medicare
right now, eight thousand dollars is the
277
00:23:51.920 --> 00:23:56.680
most you pay for drugs out of
pocket. On the surface, it seems
278
00:23:56.720 --> 00:23:59.960
good because they've negotiated now that the
most you're gonna have to pay out of
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00:24:00.039 --> 00:24:03.720
pocket is two thousand dollars. The
most you're gonna have to pay for your
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00:24:03.799 --> 00:24:08.200
drug a drug use will be two
thousand dollars. You can't pay more than
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an That's great, right until you
realize how much the insurance is going to
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00:24:14.480 --> 00:24:17.839
go up, not just for Medicare, but for all the other carriers that
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have to pay for this. It's
going to increase hour premiums. We'll be
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back some Money Matter Show. Appreciate
you listening. Welcome back everybody to the
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Money Matter Show. Appreciate you being
part of the show, being part of
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what we say, part of what
we do. And those of you that
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are the many of you that have
come in and actually done business with us,
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00:24:37.759 --> 00:24:41.720
We do appreciate that too. I
remember this show is about a lot
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of different things, but we talk
about a lot of different things. And
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00:24:45.440 --> 00:24:49.400
Greenberg Financial Group is both a registered
and investment advisory and they broke a dealer.
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00:24:51.039 --> 00:24:53.680
That means we're registered with the SEC, members of FENRA, members of
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00:24:53.759 --> 00:24:57.319
CIPIC. On the show, we
do talk about things, we have ideas,
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we have our own opinions. Every
time thing has risk, and we
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promise to tell you the truth about
everything that goes on. But you have
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to understand everything has some type of
risks, so you have to know what
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kind of risk tolerance you have and
what is involved with the risk, whether
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or not you can accept it or
not. New all time highs again this
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00:25:17.799 --> 00:25:22.279
week ASDAK s and P five hundred
just keeps pushing higher and higher, and
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00:25:22.319 --> 00:25:26.200
it's being driven, of course by
technology, primarily in video. Yeah,
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because the dal Jones did not make
a newd no, nor did the equal
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weight to SMP five hundred, nor
did the Russell. Interesting thing going to
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00:25:33.319 --> 00:25:37.799
happen over the weekend and video everybody's
favorite stock is going to split ten.
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For one reason I even bring it
up. I think most of you know
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that is if you look at your
account over the weekend, you could get
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00:25:44.240 --> 00:25:48.599
really misled because it takes a day
or so for them to adjust the price.
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00:25:48.039 --> 00:25:52.200
So you may find that tomorrow when
you look at your account, you
307
00:25:52.240 --> 00:25:56.359
have ten times as many shares of
the Nvidia as you had today, but
308
00:25:56.480 --> 00:26:00.160
it's the same price as it close
today. So if you want to have
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a windfall, take a look at
your account tomorrow online. Well think about
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00:26:03.920 --> 00:26:06.759
that, right, So you have
one hundred chairs, I'm going to have
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a thousand, and it's what twelve
hundred? Yeah, so you'll have one
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00:26:10.119 --> 00:26:12.880
point two million dollars in your account. It's gonna be it's gonna be really
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nice day tomorrow because call your brogus, seal it, seal it, close
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me out. It just a little
little fyi. Interest rates trending lower most
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of the week until Friday. Huh
yeah, I mean for the weekday edged
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lower, but yeah, Friday was
the one day where I saw a big
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increase off that labor report two hundred
and seventy two thousand new jobs. We
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00:26:34.119 --> 00:26:37.119
were looking for one hundred and ninety, right, Yeah, and that was
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up from one sixty five from last
month. So the interesting part is that
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for the most of the week,
interstrates were moving lower because the economic numbers
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00:26:45.799 --> 00:26:52.880
were not very good until the employment
report. We manufacturing ism forty eight point
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00:26:52.000 --> 00:26:57.839
seven. That is contraction. It's
zero to one hundred and fifty bean break
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even anything above fifty expansion. I
think below fifty contraction. We actually saw
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the Chicago PMI last week a week
ago was thirty five, which is shut
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00:27:10.200 --> 00:27:14.680
down. I mean that's twenty twenty
levels in the Chicago arena. Nationally,
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00:27:14.799 --> 00:27:21.960
forty eight point seven is contraction recession, and manufacturing services sector fifty one point
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00:27:22.000 --> 00:27:26.880
four, so that's still expanding.
That's good. A labor department's job openings
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00:27:26.920 --> 00:27:32.240
and a labor turnover survey showed that
the level of employment vacancies slipped to eight
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00:27:32.319 --> 00:27:37.119
million for the month. That's down
nearly three hundred thousand from March nineteen percent
330
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below a year ago nineteen percent.
The big question is how they're going to
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00:27:41.400 --> 00:27:47.599
get to service industry to lose jobs. Yes, yes, because it doesn't
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seem to be happening. No,
it doesn't. But we've talked on the
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show about going from things to experiences, and now we're starting to see signs
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that the experiences have been had.
Even still, America is more of a
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00:28:00.400 --> 00:28:04.720
services dominated economy ever since the nineteen
seventy routing of our manufacturing. Were not
336
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predominantly a manufacturer anymore as a country. We kind of import most of that
337
00:28:10.319 --> 00:28:12.359
stuff. At this point, it
seems like the employment report was kind of
338
00:28:12.359 --> 00:28:15.640
a one off though, from from
the other numbers. Dean, I don't
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00:28:15.720 --> 00:28:18.440
know, you know who believes these
numbers anymore, David, I said that
340
00:28:18.559 --> 00:28:22.880
all the time. Okay, it's
like and then they redo them, and
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00:28:22.960 --> 00:28:26.759
then the stuff I almost wish,
you know, they when they get the
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00:28:26.839 --> 00:28:30.240
wheel numbers, they put them out, but they're so far behind. Same
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00:28:30.319 --> 00:28:33.319
thing with like, you know,
what do we need earnings forecasts at all?
344
00:28:33.759 --> 00:28:37.079
Because it anticipates the stuff. You
should be buying a stock on what
345
00:28:37.200 --> 00:28:41.720
they did, not what somebody thinks
they're going to do, and then they
346
00:28:41.799 --> 00:28:44.960
disappoint and get killed. That's the
way it used to be. But the
347
00:28:45.039 --> 00:28:48.519
market's a leading indicator anyways, Absolutely
reject right. But the way it used
348
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to be is they never made forecasts. They would come out and tell you
349
00:28:52.000 --> 00:28:56.599
this is what I've done Okay,
here's our earnings. This is how we
350
00:28:56.720 --> 00:29:00.000
got there, this is how it
breaks up. These are what we say
351
00:29:00.240 --> 00:29:03.000
happening. But they never forecasted what
their earnings would be. That's why so
352
00:29:03.079 --> 00:29:07.279
many of the companies, like Apple
and all still underestimate what they're going to
353
00:29:07.359 --> 00:29:11.599
do. Speaking of Nvidia, the
market cap, did you see the market
354
00:29:11.720 --> 00:29:17.720
cap pasted Apple last week? And
Video is now the second largest company behind
355
00:29:17.799 --> 00:29:22.839
Microsoft. I had of Apple.
So so you've got a company here that
356
00:29:22.519 --> 00:29:30.279
has essentially one product and they're now
four times the value. I've seen the
357
00:29:30.319 --> 00:29:33.279
same value as Apple, who has
four times the revenue. Well, you're
358
00:29:33.319 --> 00:29:37.880
talking about capitalization. Now, what's
the market cap? Both market what's what's
359
00:29:37.920 --> 00:29:41.799
the what's the uh? What's the
uh? The the pe on these?
360
00:29:41.119 --> 00:29:45.599
I think probably Apples, I haven't
looked with the Apples is probably Attle bit
361
00:29:45.640 --> 00:29:48.839
more modest and in video because the
growth isn't there right because well they are
362
00:29:48.880 --> 00:29:52.359
of products, but they keep coming
out with innovented products. The reason the
363
00:29:52.480 --> 00:29:57.440
video keeps going up even in the
last six weeks maybe two months. While
364
00:29:57.440 --> 00:30:02.279
the stills, I mean one's paying
top price for the chip that they have,
365
00:30:03.160 --> 00:30:04.839
they came into the next one I
think it was called Blackwell or something.
366
00:30:06.200 --> 00:30:08.240
They announced about two months ago,
and last week they came up with
367
00:30:08.319 --> 00:30:14.799
another another advancement over that chip that
they have. So when people catch up
368
00:30:14.839 --> 00:30:18.000
to their amazing chip they have,
now they're gonna be two three four chips
369
00:30:18.039 --> 00:30:22.400
ahead of them. That's why I
say for six months to two years,
370
00:30:22.839 --> 00:30:26.039
the video will stay number one and
can keep growing well. At some time
371
00:30:26.119 --> 00:30:30.920
they have a problem. Of course, price to earnings on the video seventy
372
00:30:30.000 --> 00:30:34.319
Apple fifty, right, so more
modest? Yeah, sorry, Apple,
373
00:30:34.359 --> 00:30:38.440
Actually priced to earnings is thirty.
That sounds more like it. Yeah,
374
00:30:38.480 --> 00:30:41.680
thirty, and then video seventy.
Yeah, so double double the price.
375
00:30:41.960 --> 00:30:45.000
But where's the forward earnings. That's
a big one, Okay. They keep
376
00:30:45.119 --> 00:30:48.680
anticipating that the video is going to
keep growing and making so much money.
377
00:30:49.119 --> 00:30:53.839
They miss its trouble, oh big
ka. Also to count beta, which
378
00:30:53.920 --> 00:30:56.599
is how much the stock is moving
towards the actual market, and the videos
379
00:30:56.680 --> 00:31:00.640
is two point two. Apples is
one point two. So Navidia definitely moves
380
00:31:00.680 --> 00:31:04.119
a lot more volatile as Apple.
Yes, yeah, And I don't know
381
00:31:04.160 --> 00:31:08.440
if Navidia turns into the Apple down
the road, sure, just because no
382
00:31:08.559 --> 00:31:12.960
where it just becomes a U or
an Intel. I think it becomes more
383
00:31:12.960 --> 00:31:18.119
of an Intel if it doesn't keep
ahead of the game. That certainly would
384
00:31:18.160 --> 00:31:21.839
be where it would be headed for
sure. But they're big enough now they
385
00:31:21.880 --> 00:31:25.880
can do what Apple does, any
new chip coming up, any startup company
386
00:31:25.920 --> 00:31:30.119
that can offer billions of dollars make
the guy really rich or the company real
387
00:31:30.279 --> 00:31:33.680
rich and just put them under their
own wink. They also should have a
388
00:31:33.720 --> 00:31:37.799
whole bunch of cash available to them, right, I think, so you
389
00:31:37.839 --> 00:31:40.839
should be able to be investing in
these new things that we talk about that
390
00:31:41.200 --> 00:31:42.359
we seemed an chlonic compute. I
mean, there should be a lot of
391
00:31:42.440 --> 00:31:45.359
things that they could put into investments. And well, the CEO is coming
392
00:31:45.400 --> 00:31:48.759
out last week talking about how AI
is going to go into the physical form
393
00:31:49.039 --> 00:31:52.319
is the next step, So that's
probably what they're investing in. It would
394
00:31:52.319 --> 00:31:56.720
be my guess it's gonna be in
what physical form, like a robot robots,
395
00:31:56.839 --> 00:32:01.079
Yeah, AI robots, that's like
there already start Yeah, they're already
396
00:32:01.119 --> 00:32:07.759
starting that, but there's going to
go more into it. That says leading,
397
00:32:07.960 --> 00:32:10.960
leading somewhere, and where's it and
then where where does Tesla and must
398
00:32:12.039 --> 00:32:15.200
come into all this with all his
AI stuff. Well, they're buying N
399
00:32:15.279 --> 00:32:17.359
video chips. Yeah, that's what
They're buying a lot of nvideo ships,
400
00:32:17.880 --> 00:32:22.319
right, But what Musk is doing
is kind of interesting. He's redirecting in
401
00:32:22.480 --> 00:32:30.119
video chips away from Tesla towards space
X and Twitter. Well supposedly he was
402
00:32:30.200 --> 00:32:35.599
storing him. He said they didn't
have the the uh, the availability to
403
00:32:35.720 --> 00:32:38.839
store them at Tesla. So I
don't know if he says a lot.
404
00:32:39.119 --> 00:32:43.559
But you also just kind of sad
stuff because here's the other thing. It
405
00:32:43.680 --> 00:32:47.799
might need a space an area,
uh to store these chips that has to
406
00:32:47.880 --> 00:32:52.680
be you know, clean and and
a certain temperature and and everything else,
407
00:32:53.599 --> 00:32:58.319
which I would think that stuff for
space X would be under the same same
408
00:32:58.440 --> 00:33:01.160
thing. Yeah, you know,
a little different than Tesla. Tesla needs
409
00:33:01.200 --> 00:33:05.000
a factory, but I don't think
that they need these titles. No,
410
00:33:05.119 --> 00:33:07.319
who knows the truth on anything.
I know this. He's moving everything to
411
00:33:07.400 --> 00:33:10.920
damn Texas and I love it.
No, absolutely, they got to get
412
00:33:10.960 --> 00:33:15.640
handed to it. And it's a
It's just it's a little odd because he
413
00:33:15.799 --> 00:33:21.759
really has kind of backed away from
the nationwide ev charging network that Tesla is
414
00:33:21.799 --> 00:33:24.880
building out, and of course that's
going to slow down. The initial buildout
415
00:33:24.960 --> 00:33:29.359
is there. Now, you just
got to keep adding the location after you
416
00:33:29.400 --> 00:33:31.960
think that's because he's still doing it
on purpose, or he sees the government's
417
00:33:31.960 --> 00:33:36.160
going to stop giving out so much
money to other people to build out that
418
00:33:36.240 --> 00:33:38.599
infrastructure, and since they probably won't
be part of that, he's saying,
419
00:33:38.640 --> 00:33:40.640
Hey, I'm gonna put my money
in other places. I don't know.
420
00:33:40.680 --> 00:33:46.400
What I do know is that anything
that dissuades people from their confidence in the
421
00:33:46.759 --> 00:33:53.000
charging system is a negative for Tesla. That's a negative for the government because
422
00:33:53.000 --> 00:33:58.920
all they want you to do is
buy EV vehicles, the lins all they
423
00:33:58.960 --> 00:34:00.880
want you to do. But certainly
they're leaning that way. Yeah, good
424
00:34:01.039 --> 00:34:05.759
job, Dave, good jobs.
Somehow we back door into the Tesla situation
425
00:34:05.960 --> 00:34:08.440
the EV stuff. Good job even
on the top of it. But somehow
426
00:34:08.480 --> 00:34:12.599
you got us to talk about speaking
of what good job, Speaking of which
427
00:34:12.599 --> 00:34:15.119
I've been reminded with one hundred and
five hundred and seven degree temperature that you
428
00:34:15.199 --> 00:34:19.639
don't want EV's in hot climates,
and you don't want EV's and cold climates.
429
00:34:20.480 --> 00:34:22.559
I was I was pretty happy all
winter. I was getting about sixty
430
00:34:22.679 --> 00:34:28.199
five percent of what they advertised the
range to be that's now dropped to fifty
431
00:34:28.239 --> 00:34:31.039
five percent. So if you have
three hundred mile range, you're really getting
432
00:34:31.039 --> 00:34:34.719
about one fifty to one sixty.
So you want them in southern Calin,
433
00:34:34.840 --> 00:34:37.800
that's it. I think So'll be
a good place to hang out. Yeah,
434
00:34:38.159 --> 00:34:43.199
Phoenix, EV. Gotta be interesting
to see what that type of capacity.
435
00:34:43.199 --> 00:34:45.400
I don't know if it gets to
a point todd where it's just that's
436
00:34:45.400 --> 00:34:46.760
as bad as a gift, or
if it would be worse than Phoenix,
437
00:34:46.800 --> 00:34:52.360
But I do know it's a little
bit irritating now with the heat up as
438
00:34:52.400 --> 00:34:54.880
I'm getting about ten percent less range. Yeah, I think what you said
439
00:34:54.920 --> 00:35:01.440
last week as well with the the
freight EV's just think so undeniably ridiculous to
440
00:35:01.840 --> 00:35:07.400
be implementing those on any level if
you're transportating, which is because diesel we
441
00:35:07.519 --> 00:35:09.800
talked about it really does ten x
the amount of disks. It's three hundred
442
00:35:09.800 --> 00:35:15.519
and fifty miles on an electric semi
truck, twenty one hundred miles. Yeah,
443
00:35:15.639 --> 00:35:19.039
on a diesel one. That's just
crazy. Why we did anyone?
444
00:35:19.639 --> 00:35:22.320
When we come back, Okay,
take a show break, we're going to
445
00:35:22.360 --> 00:35:25.159
talk about the markets we're going to
talk about why we think we can still
446
00:35:25.199 --> 00:35:30.159
go higher, where we think we
can go, when we're going to start
447
00:35:30.199 --> 00:35:35.320
looking to mitigate risk, and how
you think about mitigating risk. I know
448
00:35:35.400 --> 00:35:38.119
it might be a term that some
people don't really understand. They've heard it,
449
00:35:38.480 --> 00:35:42.360
but how's it applied to them?
We will be talking about it.
450
00:35:42.639 --> 00:35:45.320
Appreciate you listening. We'll be right
back. We're back. It's the money
451
00:35:45.320 --> 00:35:50.039
amount of show. We all appreciate
you listening. Dylan, go ahead and
452
00:35:50.079 --> 00:35:52.960
give what we did for the weekend
the month so far. Yeah, for
453
00:35:52.039 --> 00:35:54.719
those of you just tuning in.
For the week, the Dow was pretty
454
00:35:54.719 --> 00:35:58.840
flatters, up point three percent.
The S and P five hundred was up
455
00:35:58.840 --> 00:36:02.039
one point three percent, Deck was
up two point four percent, Russell two
456
00:36:02.079 --> 00:36:06.920
thousand, which is the small cap
index, was down two point one percent,
457
00:36:07.000 --> 00:36:08.719
and the equal weight to S and
P five hundred was down point eight
458
00:36:08.760 --> 00:36:14.400
percent. Then for the month,
I mean that was the first week of
459
00:36:14.400 --> 00:36:16.840
the month really, so yeah,
I'll let me get date, let me
460
00:36:16.920 --> 00:36:22.039
gets the same. Yeah, it
was, you're to date. The NASDAK
461
00:36:22.119 --> 00:36:24.880
is still taking the lead. S
and P five hundred, the non equal
462
00:36:24.920 --> 00:36:28.519
weight to one is not too far
behind. That's up twelve percent. That
463
00:36:28.719 --> 00:36:31.199
Nasdak's up fourteen percent. The biggest
difference though, is that the equal weight
464
00:36:31.199 --> 00:36:34.920
to S and P five hundred is
up four percent. So it's kind of
465
00:36:34.960 --> 00:36:37.239
what we saw last year where the
Magnificent seven were all tech stalks leading the
466
00:36:37.320 --> 00:36:40.519
way, and they're shooting that Nasdak
up, they're shooting the S and P
467
00:36:40.599 --> 00:36:44.239
five hundred up, and then equal
weighted was not up as much either,
468
00:36:44.599 --> 00:36:47.400
and we're seeing the same thing this
year because and video is running everything wild.
469
00:36:47.719 --> 00:36:51.280
And again, if you want to
benchmark, it's probably the equal weight
470
00:36:51.320 --> 00:36:53.519
to S and P five hundred to
four percent for the year. That's probably
471
00:36:53.639 --> 00:36:59.079
a good bench on election. Yeers, that's an average. Yeah, DAL
472
00:36:59.519 --> 00:37:01.880
is down or not down, but
it's only up three percent. It's just
473
00:37:01.920 --> 00:37:05.000
that, I mean, it's only
made up of thirty stocks, and when
474
00:37:05.039 --> 00:37:07.679
you have salesforce go down thirty percent, it's going to get hit. IBM's
475
00:37:07.760 --> 00:37:12.679
down. They're having a tough year
at the main numbers. I was looking
476
00:37:12.719 --> 00:37:15.960
at the S and P five hundred
or eleven sectors in the S and P
477
00:37:15.079 --> 00:37:21.119
five hundred number one performer kind of
interesting utilities. They've been laggered for the
478
00:37:21.239 --> 00:37:24.440
last couple of years, the utilities
came out. Number one had a strong
479
00:37:24.599 --> 00:37:29.920
May of fifteen point eight percent for
the year. Number two very misleading.
480
00:37:30.320 --> 00:37:37.519
It's the communications sector communications. Get
this, guys, of the communications ETF,
481
00:37:37.639 --> 00:37:43.199
twenty six percent of that ETF is
Google, twenty two percent of that
482
00:37:43.480 --> 00:37:49.559
ETF is Meta or Facebook, so
fifty percent. So how is that a
483
00:37:49.599 --> 00:37:52.719
communicator? And then you go to
Verizon in AT and T in Sprint,
484
00:37:52.079 --> 00:37:57.039
Oh, you talked to people the
actual communicator, but it's just a lot.
485
00:37:57.119 --> 00:38:01.000
It's because your mindset is so that
I understand what you're saying. But
486
00:38:01.119 --> 00:38:05.320
technically you can make a case of
his communications. It would be a weak
487
00:38:05.400 --> 00:38:08.599
case because there is no in my
mind, it's not a cell phone I'm
488
00:38:08.639 --> 00:38:14.960
talking about. It did not belong
in communication people. What would a newspaper
489
00:38:15.000 --> 00:38:17.599
company be? You got Meta,
you talk to people through I am the
490
00:38:17.960 --> 00:38:22.840
Facebook messenger. If I want a
communication DT, if I'm thinking Verizon AT
491
00:38:22.960 --> 00:38:25.760
and T, what would an encycled
encyclopedia company that sort of thing? Right,
492
00:38:25.800 --> 00:38:31.400
And that's probably one of the worst
performing ETFs numbers. Interestingly, despite
493
00:38:31.480 --> 00:38:37.079
the dramatic dropping all recently, a
year to date, Energy is the third
494
00:38:37.199 --> 00:38:40.760
best performing etf oil had an interesting
week this week where it dropped big.
495
00:38:42.119 --> 00:38:45.679
I believe it was on Tuesday,
like five dollars big. It was amazing
496
00:38:45.920 --> 00:38:49.400
gap down huge on some opex news. I don't know if you all heard
497
00:38:49.440 --> 00:38:53.280
really what happened, but it seemed
like there was some just business wasn't moving
498
00:38:53.320 --> 00:38:57.400
as much as they thought that was
gonna and then they re looked at their
499
00:38:57.440 --> 00:39:00.800
production numbers and huge drop all this
on it and then kind of gained back
500
00:39:00.840 --> 00:39:04.400
at least two or three dollars and
only ended the week down two bucks.
501
00:39:05.239 --> 00:39:07.800
Worst performing sectors in the S and
P real estate the worst performer, down
502
00:39:07.880 --> 00:39:13.559
four point four percent for the year. Rallied a little bit on last week,
503
00:39:13.960 --> 00:39:15.840
but still down four point four which
is funny because you were mentioning a
504
00:39:15.880 --> 00:39:21.639
stock last week. I believe it
was Pulty, or maybe it was Toll
505
00:39:21.679 --> 00:39:24.719
Brothers, which it has gone absolutely
no. So there is certain new builders
506
00:39:24.920 --> 00:39:31.679
very interesting. You very really do
you see an industry that's pretty much bifurcated
507
00:39:31.719 --> 00:39:38.840
as much as they are think about
it housing, apartment complexes, they're all
508
00:39:38.960 --> 00:39:49.599
doing great, retail, shopping doing
great commercial okay, but office space they
509
00:39:49.719 --> 00:39:54.039
get about it. Office space is
falling off the cliff for years. Yeah,
510
00:39:54.199 --> 00:39:58.639
right, for years since the pandemic. You know, nobody came back.
511
00:39:58.920 --> 00:40:01.480
They come back, and people way
too much at too much high high
512
00:40:01.639 --> 00:40:07.159
levels of rent bate. They've been
locked in on contracts on you know,
513
00:40:07.199 --> 00:40:10.599
I'm surprised byden times and given them
the ability to get out of those contracts
514
00:40:10.719 --> 00:40:14.760
forgive them. Yeah. Yeah.
And we've talked about the fact that a
515
00:40:14.800 --> 00:40:16.639
lot of the regional banks, the
smaller banks, have a lot of those
516
00:40:16.719 --> 00:40:21.440
assets, the commercial real estate assets
on their books, and that was the
517
00:40:21.519 --> 00:40:25.000
worry about commercial real estate not being
the traditional thirty year mortgage have we all
518
00:40:25.239 --> 00:40:29.880
normal get when we buy houses.
They're in a five year reoccurring right,
519
00:40:30.000 --> 00:40:32.599
You're looking at that benchmark rate each
time. So a lot of those commercial
520
00:40:32.599 --> 00:40:36.519
real estate projects are coming up on
that five years. If they got that
521
00:40:36.639 --> 00:40:38.800
financing in twenty twenty one, they're
going to have to start looking in twenty
522
00:40:38.880 --> 00:40:43.119
five and twenty six. So if
we had rates continue to be this high
523
00:40:43.159 --> 00:40:45.599
at that time and they have to
refinance at those rates, there's a lot
524
00:40:45.599 --> 00:40:50.039
of commercial real estate projects that just
can't handle that type of expenditure that would
525
00:40:50.119 --> 00:40:52.559
increase. So at that point,
then if that project fails, that leads
526
00:40:52.599 --> 00:40:55.400
to it being failed on the banks
books, and that could lead to some
527
00:40:55.480 --> 00:41:00.039
contagion throughout. So with that said, you know you're buying into reads,
528
00:41:00.119 --> 00:41:04.519
you got to make sure what you
know what's inside the read, all right.
529
00:41:05.199 --> 00:41:07.360
You know there's all different types of
reads. I mean, obviously there's
530
00:41:07.480 --> 00:41:12.320
multi asset reads which have a little
bit of everything. But you got to
531
00:41:12.400 --> 00:41:15.840
know which ones are there because the
office space complex ones are going to be
532
00:41:15.920 --> 00:41:17.920
the ones that are going to be
hurting for the next few years. Red
533
00:41:19.000 --> 00:41:24.159
being in shame traded fund called the
real estate that's trust yest r E.
534
00:41:24.840 --> 00:41:28.960
So I said, we're going to
talk about the markets. Okay, obviously
535
00:41:29.039 --> 00:41:31.079
you're making new highs. You know
a lot of people get nervous when we
536
00:41:31.199 --> 00:41:35.480
make new highs. But you always
have to look at it. Where are
537
00:41:35.639 --> 00:41:42.519
we when we're making new highs.
What kind of year is it, what
538
00:41:42.719 --> 00:41:46.519
kind of the economy, who's in
charge of running the country, all those
539
00:41:46.599 --> 00:41:51.679
things. There's a lot of reasons
right now, a lot to be nervous
540
00:41:52.280 --> 00:41:57.960
s and P. Five hundred it's
about fifty almost fifty three to fifty or
541
00:41:58.000 --> 00:42:04.519
so, Okay, just because it's
making new Hives doesn't mean it's not gonna
542
00:42:04.519 --> 00:42:09.679
it's gonna stop. We're in an
election year. The feders are gonna do
543
00:42:09.760 --> 00:42:15.599
anything to hurt interest rates. Anything
he would help interestrates. I don't think
544
00:42:15.639 --> 00:42:19.760
that's gonna happen. The economy is
doing well right now. We're in the
545
00:42:19.840 --> 00:42:22.239
months that usually show us that June, July, and August is in the
546
00:42:22.280 --> 00:42:27.880
best months of the electric year,
election year. So even if there's a
547
00:42:28.000 --> 00:42:34.440
pullback, you'll probably see the market
being bought with the with the with the
548
00:42:34.519 --> 00:42:38.239
one caveat that for some reason,
June nineteenth, the June twenty eighth,
549
00:42:38.360 --> 00:42:44.239
eighty percent of the time the market
goes down that week, that June swoon
550
00:42:44.639 --> 00:42:47.079
figure. Okay, so have compassion. If you have that cash on the
551
00:42:47.119 --> 00:42:51.559
sidelines and you're invested right now,
let it keep going. Make sure you're
552
00:42:51.599 --> 00:42:57.360
in good things, or at least
the good indexes. If the markets rally
553
00:42:57.480 --> 00:43:02.000
and get up to that fifty six
hundred level or so in August, we're
554
00:43:02.039 --> 00:43:07.039
gonna have to mitigate risk. Just
common sense tells you you gotta pull money
555
00:43:07.079 --> 00:43:13.199
off the table, reallocate your portfolio, be prepared for whatever happens in the
556
00:43:13.280 --> 00:43:16.760
election. No one says you can't
get back in even if the markets want
557
00:43:16.800 --> 00:43:22.599
to rally. Whoever gets in a
thousand points that day. That doesn't mean
558
00:43:22.920 --> 00:43:25.440
while you're selling everything, but two, it doesn't mean you can't get back
559
00:43:25.480 --> 00:43:30.960
in and add to your positions of
what you want. But remember the biggest
560
00:43:31.840 --> 00:43:37.920
This election is so different. Depending
who gets in, the agendas are so
561
00:43:38.119 --> 00:43:43.800
different. The outcomes of their agendas
will be so different. The most important
562
00:43:43.880 --> 00:43:50.559
thing is that taxes or he of
course Biden's going to say I'm not raising
563
00:43:50.679 --> 00:43:57.199
taxes, but if he does nothing, everybody's taxes are going up. The
564
00:43:58.039 --> 00:44:01.440
Trump tax cut that he put in
has a what is it said, sunset
565
00:44:02.199 --> 00:44:07.840
in January twenty five, which means
in twenty five, everyone's tax bracket moves
566
00:44:07.920 --> 00:44:14.360
up. Small businesses don't get their
right off that they get, You're going
567
00:44:14.480 --> 00:44:19.000
to see a lot of other things
come into play. The big thing,
568
00:44:19.079 --> 00:44:24.880
though, you couple that with inflation, it is to become devastating to the
569
00:44:25.000 --> 00:44:31.360
economy. And that's why I believe
down the road you better understand how to
570
00:44:31.440 --> 00:44:37.199
mitigate some of the risk because we
can have that move down that we've been
571
00:44:37.239 --> 00:44:40.519
looking for because of the trouble.
Sometimes next year if Biden gets in,
572
00:44:42.400 --> 00:44:46.119
because taxes go up, the borders
don't get closed, the wars don't stop.
573
00:44:47.000 --> 00:44:53.880
Something hopefully not happens in America.
Inflation isn't going anywhere, and we're
574
00:44:54.000 --> 00:45:00.760
infiltrated with illegals that are only going
to cost us money. If you look
575
00:45:00.800 --> 00:45:05.159
at that and you can tell me
that's an okay way of surviving the economy,
576
00:45:06.719 --> 00:45:10.000
then you got rose colored glasses on, because I'm telling you we cannot
577
00:45:10.039 --> 00:45:15.119
afford it. We just can't.
The average person will start hurting and you
578
00:45:15.199 --> 00:45:20.760
will see jobs being cut, and
you'll see the economy roll into that to
579
00:45:20.920 --> 00:45:23.400
that downturn, and when that happens, the markets will go down, and
580
00:45:23.559 --> 00:45:29.719
you better be prepared beginning. I've
been able to afford it to oil prices
581
00:45:29.840 --> 00:45:32.159
down a dollar sixty on a week
to seventy five to forty. That's on
582
00:45:32.199 --> 00:45:36.840
one of the lower weekly closers we've
seen recently. And gas is still what
583
00:45:37.239 --> 00:45:38.480
gas. I don't know, I
don't know. I don't buy gas being
584
00:45:39.360 --> 00:45:43.719
no, you can't try, you
can only get you only go thirty miles
585
00:45:44.280 --> 00:45:49.679
cross down. But I don't buy. Yeah, I gotta stop on the
586
00:45:49.719 --> 00:45:52.000
way to your house. If you
just get some electricity. I can't get
587
00:45:52.039 --> 00:45:55.679
to Phoenix and back, but I
can't. The bottom line is is you
588
00:45:55.760 --> 00:46:00.519
know what most tag gas tanks are
taking eighty dollars to fill them. Yeah,
589
00:46:00.760 --> 00:46:04.360
you know if smaller one sixty bucks, that's twenty dollars more than it
590
00:46:04.599 --> 00:46:07.440
was not too long ago. And
if you add that up twice a month,
591
00:46:07.519 --> 00:46:12.000
that becomes forty fifty dollars for people
more than what they're paying now.
592
00:46:12.519 --> 00:46:15.480
That is a lot of money to
a lot of people right now, during
593
00:46:15.559 --> 00:46:20.159
these times when it becomes having to
pay for gas, having to get food.
594
00:46:20.519 --> 00:46:22.719
I mean, we all know,
I don't even go to the grocery
595
00:46:22.760 --> 00:46:24.800
store, and they know how much
more everything is, you know, don'
596
00:46:25.159 --> 00:46:29.199
don't And I would talk it the
other day. Burritos used to be six
597
00:46:29.280 --> 00:46:35.280
seven dollars. They're twelve to fifteen
bucks now, sure burritos the good fifteen
598
00:46:35.440 --> 00:46:37.920
seventeen dollars hammers, you know.
Yeah. Gold had a rough day on
599
00:46:38.039 --> 00:46:42.320
Friday. It really collapsed down seventy
five bucks, finished the week down twenty
600
00:46:42.400 --> 00:46:45.760
three dollars to twenty three hundred.
Almost all commodities had a rough down Friday.
601
00:46:46.159 --> 00:46:51.480
Silver was down, big, copper
was down, big even oil saw
602
00:46:51.639 --> 00:46:53.920
a little bit, so it seemed
like those rates really weighed heavily on the
603
00:46:53.920 --> 00:46:59.920
commodity range. The other side of
the hour, stronger dollar two. I
604
00:47:00.039 --> 00:47:01.920
could leave you hang. We talk
about mitigating risk. We're going to tell
605
00:47:01.960 --> 00:47:06.519
you how you end up doing that, and you have to have a financial
606
00:47:06.599 --> 00:47:09.119
plan to do it. You must
have that plan. That's why we do
607
00:47:09.199 --> 00:47:13.760
these financial plans for free for anyone
that wants one. They just need to
608
00:47:13.840 --> 00:47:15.719
call us and we sit down and
we'll go through the process with you.
609
00:47:16.039 --> 00:47:21.079
But a financial plan helps you learn
how to mitigate risk. Will be back.
610
00:47:21.199 --> 00:47:25.880
It's the Money Matter Shell. Thank
you for listening. Welcome back to
611
00:47:25.960 --> 00:47:29.760
the second hour of The Money Matter
Show. Dylan Greenberg. I'm here with
612
00:47:29.840 --> 00:47:32.039
Dave Sure, with Todd Glick and
Sebastian Borsini. We're gonna be talking a
613
00:47:32.079 --> 00:47:36.880
lot about financial planning, how we
go about it, our process, everything
614
00:47:36.920 --> 00:47:39.159
that goes into it, because it's
very intricate and very unique to each client.
615
00:47:39.519 --> 00:47:42.840
Before we get started on that,
for those of you just tuning in
616
00:47:43.679 --> 00:47:45.159
for the week, the Dow is
up point three percent. The S and
617
00:47:45.199 --> 00:47:49.800
P five hundred was up one point
three percent. NASDAK was up two point
618
00:47:49.840 --> 00:47:52.280
four percent, Russell two thousand was
down two point one percent, and the
619
00:47:52.440 --> 00:47:57.440
equal weight to SMP five hundred was
down point eight percent. You're to date,
620
00:47:58.159 --> 00:48:00.960
the Dow is up three percent,
the NASDAK is up fourteen percent,
621
00:48:00.440 --> 00:48:06.039
S and P five hundreds up twelve
percent, Russell two thousand's flat at barely
622
00:48:06.159 --> 00:48:08.079
up point two percent, and the
equal weighted S and P five hundred is
623
00:48:08.159 --> 00:48:10.559
up four percent. So you see
a big discrepancy between the S and P
624
00:48:10.719 --> 00:48:15.239
five hundred and the equal weighted S
and P five hundred. And that's because
625
00:48:15.960 --> 00:48:21.119
companies like Nvidia just running the markets
wild with tech. Literally one company can
626
00:48:21.199 --> 00:48:22.880
make a difference in all we saw
last year. We're like, wow,
627
00:48:22.920 --> 00:48:27.400
it's only seven companies making the difference. That's crazy. Now it's just one.
628
00:48:27.639 --> 00:48:31.599
Yeah, miss not abricrimey Fish.
Even though that which is up four
629
00:48:31.639 --> 00:48:35.199
hundred, which is an interesting one. Have you ever have you dug more
630
00:48:35.239 --> 00:48:37.559
into that? No, it's going
up. No, I think that's because
631
00:48:37.559 --> 00:48:39.199
I mean it's just it's still to
me like a brick and mortar at the
632
00:48:39.280 --> 00:48:42.840
malls. And then you still got
their online Yeah, but the same idea.
633
00:48:42.960 --> 00:48:44.800
I guess they might have changed their
clothes. I haven't tried to shop
634
00:48:44.840 --> 00:48:46.960
there. They're just killing it after
and literally a year ago you left,
635
00:48:47.039 --> 00:48:51.239
they were left for dead. And
you like even a short squeeze either,
636
00:48:51.320 --> 00:48:53.719
like GameStop which got hammered last week. Oh game stop. They can't talk
637
00:48:53.719 --> 00:48:59.159
about that. It's crazyness, right. Lululemon Apparel, they finally caught a
638
00:48:59.199 --> 00:49:02.000
pit bid this sweet about eight nine
percent on the week after they reported some
639
00:49:02.039 --> 00:49:07.199
pretty good earnings. It issued weaker
guidance and they didn't hold their three to
640
00:49:07.239 --> 00:49:09.119
fifty level. But I think they
closed a week out around three thirty three
641
00:49:09.199 --> 00:49:15.199
forty. Right. The US US
business was surprisingly weak, China business was
642
00:49:15.280 --> 00:49:19.679
surprisingly strong. It's very strong.
Looks like they've got some new S and
643
00:49:19.760 --> 00:49:23.800
P five hundred got KKR go.
Daddy added to the S and P.
644
00:49:23.960 --> 00:49:27.280
It was just announced there. Oh
yeah, what were they take it out?
645
00:49:27.320 --> 00:49:30.880
Did they say alumina? Alumina?
Oh yeah, is one of those?
646
00:49:30.559 --> 00:49:35.159
Yeah, and there was another another
one. I just missed it again.
647
00:49:35.400 --> 00:49:37.519
Dina said this many many times.
If the index isn't working, and
648
00:49:37.599 --> 00:49:40.199
they'll get rid of the bad stuff
and put some new stuff in so it
649
00:49:40.280 --> 00:49:44.199
will work. What is something to
really note for clients I don't think a
650
00:49:44.239 --> 00:49:46.119
lot of them really understand what the
S and P five hundred is. You
651
00:49:46.199 --> 00:49:49.760
know, it's five hundred companies,
but it's not the same five hundred,
652
00:49:50.199 --> 00:49:53.199
it's it's it They change them pretty
frequently. Yah, how much of the
653
00:49:53.280 --> 00:49:57.840
largest companies if there's a split or
something like that, though, they'll take
654
00:49:57.880 --> 00:50:00.199
one out and may I mean,
we've seen how many three chain just this
655
00:50:00.360 --> 00:50:02.199
year alone, right, And there's
more than five hundred companies in there.
656
00:50:02.280 --> 00:50:06.079
We know that about five hundred and
three or four something like that. Because
657
00:50:06.239 --> 00:50:08.639
you get Google, like Google has
two classes to shares. It's a great
658
00:50:08.679 --> 00:50:13.199
example. So just with Google,
there's five hundred and one company or shire
659
00:50:13.239 --> 00:50:16.480
Hathaway has and that's how they get
to five h four. But that's why
660
00:50:16.559 --> 00:50:21.360
investing in the indexes over long run
are always going to be great because you're
661
00:50:21.519 --> 00:50:24.800
you're actively It's kind of like active
portfolio. It's an active manager who takes
662
00:50:24.920 --> 00:50:29.639
out the bad stuff and puts in
good stuff. Except the Dow is struggling
663
00:50:30.119 --> 00:50:32.760
but Walgreens and why because it's thirty
companies, right, and you're looking at
664
00:50:32.800 --> 00:50:37.480
diversification, and the rule of diversification
is the more you have, the lower
665
00:50:37.559 --> 00:50:39.159
risk, Well you'll have. And
the thing with S and P five hundred
666
00:50:39.320 --> 00:50:44.840
is the five five hundred largest companies
the Dow is those stocks are picked by
667
00:50:44.880 --> 00:50:50.159
a committee just what they think is
the best and the biggest. It shows
668
00:50:50.199 --> 00:50:52.960
that the market they try and cover
the broad market in those thirty stocks,
669
00:50:52.960 --> 00:50:57.360
and that's what they look for.
And but it's still only thirty stocks picked
670
00:50:57.360 --> 00:51:00.239
by committee, not by largest cap. Do you know the Dow I was
671
00:51:00.320 --> 00:51:04.840
equal weighted? No market cap?
Wait, it is market cap? Okay,
672
00:51:04.880 --> 00:51:07.000
Oh it's yeah, Okay, So
that's something to note as well,
673
00:51:07.079 --> 00:51:10.679
right, because the reason SMP does
so well, I mean of these compared
674
00:51:10.719 --> 00:51:15.239
to the equal weight to S andps
because those top seven make up about well,
675
00:51:15.280 --> 00:51:16.639
the top ten of the S and
P holdings make up like thirty five
676
00:51:16.679 --> 00:51:21.360
percent of the actual S and P. It's it's kind of I had a
677
00:51:21.400 --> 00:51:23.400
client last This might be a segue
because I had a client last week asked
678
00:51:23.440 --> 00:51:31.320
me about the difference between value investing
and momentum investing or growth investing. And
679
00:51:31.639 --> 00:51:36.719
it's pretty simple. Value investing is, as the name implies, trying to
680
00:51:36.760 --> 00:51:39.239
find value. Let me give you
a couple of examples. On April twenty
681
00:51:39.320 --> 00:51:44.079
fifth, Bolling was one hundred and
sixty dollars. Five weeks later, it's
682
00:51:44.079 --> 00:51:47.639
one hundred and ninety dollars. Raytheon
sixty eight and a half in October,
683
00:51:47.880 --> 00:51:53.039
three months later, ninety three,
m seventy six in March, sixty days
684
00:51:53.119 --> 00:51:59.679
later, one oh six. That's
value investing. You've determined that these three
685
00:51:59.760 --> 00:52:05.559
companie have tremendous value, and when
the stock declined, you wanted to buy,
686
00:52:05.679 --> 00:52:07.760
and you held it for however long
it takes for it to realize its
687
00:52:07.840 --> 00:52:12.280
value. Momentum investing, on the
other hand, is something like Nvidia,
688
00:52:12.679 --> 00:52:15.760
a stock that goes up almost every
day and you just climb on, hoping
689
00:52:15.840 --> 00:52:19.039
to get a piece of the ride. Well, it's things like watching a
690
00:52:19.039 --> 00:52:21.800
two hundred day moving average. If
a stock gets above that, it has
691
00:52:21.880 --> 00:52:25.400
momentum. There's other indicators that are
technical that tell you or not if a
692
00:52:25.480 --> 00:52:30.079
stock is actually gaining momentum or losing
momentum. And that's also how you do
693
00:52:30.159 --> 00:52:35.119
momentum. Now, I don't think
there's really any data that would show one
694
00:52:35.239 --> 00:52:37.159
is better than the other. I
think is more of a where you're comfortable.
695
00:52:38.320 --> 00:52:44.039
Yeah, but momentum investing is aligned
with momentum which you get through indicators.
696
00:52:44.280 --> 00:52:46.920
And of course momentum investing is wonderful. And and VIDIA has gone from
697
00:52:47.000 --> 00:52:51.559
four hundred to twelve hundred and fifty, and you get into twelve to fifteen
698
00:52:51.559 --> 00:52:52.920
and it goes to a thousand.
I think we look at investing more for
699
00:52:53.079 --> 00:52:58.519
long term. Two surementium investing is
not necessarily long term investing all the time.
700
00:52:59.440 --> 00:53:01.559
Momentum besting would have killed it in
twenty twenty when meme stocks and everything
701
00:53:01.599 --> 00:53:05.280
goes up right, you throw it
dark no matter what's gonna work. Twenty
702
00:53:05.320 --> 00:53:07.800
twenty two, where things don't work, momentum investing is not going to do
703
00:53:07.880 --> 00:53:10.119
too well. So it does depend
on the market environment and what's going on.
704
00:53:10.599 --> 00:53:14.519
So as we're talking about the Dow, we've got the numbers through the
705
00:53:14.679 --> 00:53:19.119
end of May for the thirty stocks
that make up the Dow. Top performer
706
00:53:19.239 --> 00:53:23.559
has now become American Express up twenty
eight point nine percent for the year,
707
00:53:23.639 --> 00:53:28.760
followed by Walmart up twenty six percent. At the bottom no secrets here,
708
00:53:29.119 --> 00:53:35.719
Boeing an Intel battling to be the
worst performing Dow stock. The biggest drop
709
00:53:35.920 --> 00:53:39.559
during the month of May was a
Salesforce dot Com, which is the company
710
00:53:39.639 --> 00:53:45.519
that replaced Walgreens that dropped thirteen point
nine percent in May. I think I
711
00:53:45.559 --> 00:53:50.920
said Mark in May to down ten
point eight for the year. One of
712
00:53:51.000 --> 00:53:57.199
the previous number one performers, Disney. Ever, since the hedge fund went
713
00:53:57.239 --> 00:54:00.599
away lost the proxy battle, that
stocks drifting lower. It was down another
714
00:54:00.719 --> 00:54:06.440
eight percent in May. It's now
at fifteen percent for the year. Sixty
715
00:54:06.599 --> 00:54:08.800
days ago it was up thirty percent
for the year. Yeah, you know,
716
00:54:08.920 --> 00:54:12.679
I think what's interesting there is the
top two on the Dow. You
717
00:54:12.719 --> 00:54:17.119
got American Express credit card company number
two, Walmart discount grocery store. So
718
00:54:17.880 --> 00:54:22.360
it seems like their businesses are doing
well. We've seen that with TJ Max
719
00:54:22.480 --> 00:54:27.079
with Ross. The discounter is doing
a lot better than the higher end things
720
00:54:27.119 --> 00:54:32.360
like lou Larket's struggling premium outlet it
or Premium Shopping. It's interesting because in
721
00:54:32.480 --> 00:54:37.679
a recession or in a weekending economy, two of the stocks that do really
722
00:54:37.719 --> 00:54:43.880
well typically are Costco and Walmart.
Both of them are up twenty eight percent
723
00:54:44.000 --> 00:54:50.079
for the year. They both hit
new all time highs last Friday. The
724
00:54:50.920 --> 00:54:53.400
Costco is a lot more expensive.
It has a price earningge ratio of fifty
725
00:54:53.760 --> 00:54:59.039
with a small dividend. Walmart,
a price earningge ratio of twenty five,
726
00:55:00.079 --> 00:55:01.880
does have a bit of a dividends, so Walmart would be the safer way
727
00:55:01.920 --> 00:55:06.079
to play that. But both of
them are up almost equal to ours.
728
00:55:06.119 --> 00:55:10.440
I was surprised that Walmart has gone
up as much as Coparts total revenue for
729
00:55:10.519 --> 00:55:15.760
last year was more than Amazon's by
about almost sixty billion. Really it killed
730
00:55:15.800 --> 00:55:21.599
it. Yeah, wow, Well
they started really going hard on their e
731
00:55:21.679 --> 00:55:24.679
commerce stuff on on their website and
all that. Yes, whether they've been
732
00:55:24.760 --> 00:55:29.280
trying really really hard to compete with
Amazon and they've not had a lot of
733
00:55:29.360 --> 00:55:32.880
luck in that space. I don't
see. We talked about UPS last week
734
00:55:34.000 --> 00:55:37.039
losing the battle to Amazon, and
in my neighborhood, I see awful lot
735
00:55:37.079 --> 00:55:40.360
of Amazon trucks. Once in a
while we'll see a UPS truck. I
736
00:55:40.519 --> 00:55:45.440
have never seen a Walmart truck ever. Yeah, yeah, I mean neither
737
00:55:45.519 --> 00:55:49.280
see fed XUPS and Amazon. Yeah, Walmart's not. I mean, they're
738
00:55:49.320 --> 00:55:52.360
working really really hard to get into
that space, but they're just it's just
739
00:55:52.639 --> 00:55:55.360
isn't working at this point. Todd
last week, we don't think Walmart deserve
740
00:55:55.480 --> 00:55:59.960
deliveries though, Oh you don't think
they deliver have their own trucks. Yeah,
741
00:56:00.079 --> 00:56:01.360
uh, I don't know. No, I don't think they do have
742
00:56:01.440 --> 00:56:05.519
their own trucks. I don't see
them, right, I think they outsourced
743
00:56:05.519 --> 00:56:10.559
it, yes, right, And
like not seeing unicorns, Oh they're changing.
744
00:56:10.639 --> 00:56:15.280
The reminds me of changing the Boston
Marathon logo to a unicorn. Really,
745
00:56:15.559 --> 00:56:17.840
why what was it before? Forward
progress change? It was just a
746
00:56:17.920 --> 00:56:23.519
horse, So they put a horn
on the horse. Interesting unicorns? Job?
747
00:56:24.400 --> 00:56:28.519
What the heck? Right? Yeah? Interest rates continue higher, to
748
00:56:29.280 --> 00:56:31.000
continue higher. They were actually a
little lower on the week, but they
749
00:56:31.079 --> 00:56:35.000
had a real jump on Friday after
that. Job. What we got in
750
00:56:35.039 --> 00:56:38.039
the inversion four point four on the
ten year, four point eight seven on
751
00:56:38.199 --> 00:56:42.719
the two years, so forty four
basis point inversion. That's about where we've
752
00:56:42.719 --> 00:56:45.000
been still. That's actually a little
bit big, bigger I think than it
753
00:56:45.119 --> 00:56:49.000
was the last week. So it
was been around thirty nine something like that.
754
00:56:50.119 --> 00:56:52.559
Our neighbors in Mexico they just had
an election. Yeah, big,
755
00:56:53.039 --> 00:56:57.199
big got went big, went up
big off of that's went up eight percent
756
00:56:57.280 --> 00:57:00.360
against the pay so or the pace
so lost a lot of value against the
757
00:57:00.360 --> 00:57:04.000
dollar's probably how we're yeah, right, either way either way you look at
758
00:57:04.039 --> 00:57:08.199
it, cheaper vacations in Mexico.
Now, okay, the first bottom line,
759
00:57:08.239 --> 00:57:13.840
bottom line, first female president and
she's Jewish, Yes, a juice
760
00:57:13.920 --> 00:57:17.280
can. I'm a juice can.
They're very a jew Mexican. Really.
761
00:57:17.880 --> 00:57:22.519
She beat out seven or thirty seven
candidates that were assassinated. Pretty interesting.
762
00:57:23.320 --> 00:57:30.719
Thirty seven candidates were assassinated. That
includes but that wasn't just presidential candidates.
763
00:57:30.280 --> 00:57:34.159
Right. They make it look they
make it sound a little worse. Yea,
764
00:57:34.280 --> 00:57:36.960
it is brutal, but yeah,
there have been a lot of If
765
00:57:37.000 --> 00:57:38.880
you're running against the Carteli, you're
going to be having a funeral. Their
766
00:57:38.880 --> 00:57:43.719
equities also got crushed. India,
they also had their election. Their prime
767
00:57:43.760 --> 00:57:45.800
minister I'm not even going to try
to pronounce his name, but his alliance.
768
00:57:45.840 --> 00:57:51.159
They were poised for the third straight
term in power. They there ETF
769
00:57:51.280 --> 00:57:53.480
India ETF hit and all the time
high. Yeah, it's actually a really
770
00:57:53.559 --> 00:57:58.119
important point about these elections. This
year. We have more democratic elections than
771
00:57:58.119 --> 00:58:00.760
the history of the world, So
there's more more changes going on or will
772
00:58:01.280 --> 00:58:06.519
go on, more potential for change, yes than any time the change right,
773
00:58:06.760 --> 00:58:08.119
which is also good. This means
we have more democracy in the world
774
00:58:08.119 --> 00:58:12.000
than we have in the history of
the world. But I like my guy
775
00:58:12.039 --> 00:58:15.320
out in Argentina, what's his name, He's doing really good. He brought
776
00:58:15.360 --> 00:58:19.960
that inflation way down for Argentina and
been really interesting. In El Salvador,
777
00:58:20.000 --> 00:58:22.719
they've they've done great since they've done
their president change as well. Thanks.
778
00:58:22.760 --> 00:58:25.920
So. The main thing though with
this is though, if you're nervous about
779
00:58:25.920 --> 00:58:29.920
what's going on, with the uncertainty
about elections, just and you're trying to
780
00:58:29.960 --> 00:58:31.079
figure out what you want to do
in the Marcus you want to be more
781
00:58:31.119 --> 00:58:34.480
conservative, or if you thinks it's
going to be a good outlook, do
782
00:58:34.480 --> 00:58:37.000
you want to become more aggressive?
Come talk to us and we can get
783
00:58:37.039 --> 00:58:40.119
your risk tolerance in line to make
sure you're going to be going on the
784
00:58:40.159 --> 00:58:43.400
path that you want to go,
and we can go. There's a risk
785
00:58:43.440 --> 00:58:45.199
Tallerant questionnaire that we do. We
do it through our financial planning process.
786
00:58:45.559 --> 00:58:49.800
It's all free until we meet,
be free. We go through their financial
787
00:58:49.840 --> 00:58:52.920
planning process, and then at the
end we give you the risk Tallant question
788
00:58:52.039 --> 00:58:55.239
There we nail down your risk score
to see what you actually are. If
789
00:58:55.239 --> 00:58:59.360
you're going to be more aggressive,
if you're more conservative, and then ask
790
00:58:59.440 --> 00:59:01.800
how you can give yourself an outlook
of how you want to invest in these
791
00:59:01.880 --> 00:59:07.880
markets with the uncertainty about what's going
on. Last week we talked at link
792
00:59:07.960 --> 00:59:12.840
about the financial plan and that you
guys are doing, and what it means,
793
00:59:12.920 --> 00:59:15.480
what it looks like, what you
know, how you how you get
794
00:59:15.519 --> 00:59:19.360
a questionnaire ahead of time, you
come in, you meet in a room
795
00:59:20.159 --> 00:59:23.000
with it closed doors, You go
through the financial plan, and then a
796
00:59:23.079 --> 00:59:27.400
couple of weeks later, you guys
come back with a proposal, and let's
797
00:59:27.440 --> 00:59:31.199
say to your client, Todd accepts
a proposal and we begin to aliccate the
798
00:59:31.280 --> 00:59:36.480
assets. Give us an idea of
the categories that we would be looking at
799
00:59:36.519 --> 00:59:43.800
having assets in, what kind of
what kind of investments would Greenberg Financial consider
800
00:59:44.000 --> 00:59:49.400
for clients? Right? I mean, the thing I'll explain that probably is
801
00:59:49.440 --> 00:59:52.679
what you're alluding to is our customized
models, what we call our MAP models.
802
00:59:53.239 --> 00:59:57.880
It stands for Managed Asset program.
And what we're doing is finding an
803
00:59:57.880 --> 01:00:00.440
allocation that first of all, matches
your risk. So for some people there
804
01:00:00.559 --> 01:00:05.159
have balanced growth, it's gonna be
anywhere from sixty to forty percent, sixty
805
01:00:05.199 --> 01:00:08.840
percent stock, forty percent bonds.
You could be more growth so you're gonna
806
01:00:08.840 --> 01:00:12.239
have more stock, or you could
be more conservative, you're gonna have less
807
01:00:12.239 --> 01:00:15.800
stock. So that's the first idea
is you got to find your allocation range
808
01:00:15.840 --> 01:00:19.199
between stocks and bonds. Once you
find that, that's when you start allocating.
809
01:00:19.239 --> 01:00:22.039
That's our job where we actually go
into it and understand that we don't
810
01:00:22.079 --> 01:00:24.480
want to put all the money to
work all at once. So what we're
811
01:00:24.519 --> 01:00:29.320
first doing is dollar cost averaging.
What that means is that we are taking
812
01:00:29.360 --> 01:00:32.400
a systematic approach to making to putting
the money to work over a four month
813
01:00:32.440 --> 01:00:36.599
period instead of day one of beginning
investing. With us, we don't just
814
01:00:36.679 --> 01:00:39.920
populate all the positions in all at
once because that might not be the best
815
01:00:40.000 --> 01:00:43.440
time to do that. So we
like to do that over a four month
816
01:00:43.480 --> 01:00:45.440
period to get a better average cost. And that's for the equity side.
817
01:00:45.480 --> 01:00:51.719
The equity side can be broken up
into many different tranches or buckets. You
818
01:00:52.000 --> 01:00:53.639
could say. The first one is
value. We talked a little bit in
819
01:00:53.679 --> 01:00:58.760
the previous about value and we tend
to think value is anything that has a
820
01:00:58.800 --> 01:01:02.280
dividend above three percent around there,
and so again, value companies that are
821
01:01:02.440 --> 01:01:06.760
putting out dividends, they're not going
to have that growth orientation of them.
822
01:01:07.000 --> 01:01:09.559
But with value, we like to
use ETFs exchange traded funds. So what
823
01:01:09.719 --> 01:01:14.480
that means is it's a basket of
value companies. Instead of investing in just
824
01:01:14.599 --> 01:01:17.199
one value company, you can best
invest in hundreds of them. That way,
825
01:01:17.199 --> 01:01:22.719
you get a less volatile performance,
meaning it doesn't go up and down
826
01:01:22.760 --> 01:01:25.000
as much, but you have more
consistent dividend as well. That's coming in
827
01:01:25.079 --> 01:01:29.679
the door. The other thing is
the opposite is growth. Any company that's
828
01:01:29.719 --> 01:01:31.760
lower than three percent dividend, so
they're not really there to give you a
829
01:01:31.800 --> 01:01:36.599
dividend. They're looking to get the
cash from stock investors and to grow the
830
01:01:36.679 --> 01:01:39.119
company further. Those are companies like
Apples or in a videos they might even
831
01:01:39.159 --> 01:01:43.400
be giving out a dividend, but
it's not anywhere close to three so they're
832
01:01:43.440 --> 01:01:46.679
really growth oriented. And so those
are where you can find more opportunities,
833
01:01:46.719 --> 01:01:50.639
and those are going to be more
volatile. Right. Growth is more volatile
834
01:01:50.719 --> 01:01:54.960
because you're accepting more risk, but
predominantly with more risk, you are expecting
835
01:01:54.960 --> 01:01:59.760
a higher return. Lastly, we
have the GfG model, and the g
836
01:02:00.079 --> 01:02:04.119
G model is the twenty five percent
allocation for almost all of our accounts,
837
01:02:04.239 --> 01:02:08.519
and what that means is it's broken
up into six ETFs exchange traded funds well
838
01:02:08.840 --> 01:02:14.079
that mimic indexes. So one of
them is the dal Jones. We have
839
01:02:14.159 --> 01:02:16.800
the S and P five hundred,
the Nasdaq one hundred, the Russell,
840
01:02:17.519 --> 01:02:22.119
the MidCap and as well as the
equal weighted SMP. Why we do that
841
01:02:22.320 --> 01:02:25.400
is we want to have an allocation
to the broad market and so that way,
842
01:02:25.679 --> 01:02:30.559
if the market ever takes off and
we're not unnecessarily invested as much as
843
01:02:30.599 --> 01:02:34.199
we need to be, we have
at least part of the portfolio participating in
844
01:02:34.280 --> 01:02:36.960
that market growth. I know Dylan
can talk a little bit more about the
845
01:02:37.039 --> 01:02:39.079
fixed income side of things. Yeah, when we do fixed income, what
846
01:02:39.159 --> 01:02:44.400
we do is we like to build
the bond ladder. If we're doing a
847
01:02:44.679 --> 01:02:46.480
map with is the managed asset program, and what we do, what a
848
01:02:46.519 --> 01:02:51.159
bond ladder is is a one year
bond to year bond through your bond for
849
01:02:51.280 --> 01:02:53.000
your bond five year bond. Roughly, what we've been doing is short term,
850
01:02:53.039 --> 01:02:57.599
so it's been about a five year
ladder and it's we want them to
851
01:02:57.679 --> 01:03:00.800
mature roughly the same time because we
want to be a to take advantage of
852
01:03:00.840 --> 01:03:04.480
the ladder and so like. In
that meaning is the end of the month
853
01:03:04.559 --> 01:03:06.920
of say we want them all to
mature, at the end of October,
854
01:03:07.039 --> 01:03:09.880
whatever it is that happens, and
then that's how we build the fixed income
855
01:03:09.920 --> 01:03:13.840
side because we want the stability.
We don't necessarily want it to go into
856
01:03:13.880 --> 01:03:17.119
bondyts if we can help it,
because you don't have your principle guaranteed in
857
01:03:17.199 --> 01:03:21.079
that sense if a bond mature,
if you have an individual bond, you'll
858
01:03:21.079 --> 01:03:23.199
get your principle back plus the interest
at the maturity of the bond. If
859
01:03:23.199 --> 01:03:28.480
you have bondytfs, you just buy
into the ETF which is a cheaper way,
860
01:03:30.559 --> 01:03:32.360
but it's not going to necessarily give
you your principle back. And we
861
01:03:32.400 --> 01:03:37.360
saw that in twenty twenty two.
Bonditfs lost a lot. They lost more
862
01:03:37.400 --> 01:03:39.840
than equity side, and you don't
get that principle back. If you sold
863
01:03:40.239 --> 01:03:43.880
because you were nervous about it,
then you lost that person, You lost
864
01:03:43.920 --> 01:03:45.760
that money. You realize the loss. If you just waited out in an
865
01:03:45.760 --> 01:03:50.000
individual bond, it didn't matter.
You would have got your principle back and
866
01:03:50.320 --> 01:03:52.960
whatever interest was there. So that's
why we like that fixed income side because
867
01:03:53.000 --> 01:03:58.079
it's more stable. Yeah, with
the fixed income side. The reason we're
868
01:03:58.159 --> 01:04:01.880
laddering is because we're diversifying cross two
things, time and interest rates. Risk.
869
01:04:02.119 --> 01:04:05.239
We don't know necessarily if rates are
going to be higher a year,
870
01:04:05.360 --> 01:04:08.440
two years, three years into the
future, or if they're going to be
871
01:04:08.519 --> 01:04:11.079
lower. But if you have a
bond ladder of five years, it doesn't
872
01:04:11.159 --> 01:04:14.599
matter because you have one coming mature
each year. If rates are higher in
873
01:04:14.679 --> 01:04:16.280
a year, great, you have
one year that's coming to mature. You
874
01:04:16.360 --> 01:04:19.159
can take that money and buy in
the higher rate. If rates are lower
875
01:04:19.320 --> 01:04:23.440
in a year, great, then
you're all four of your year's products that
876
01:04:23.639 --> 01:04:27.599
haven't come mature yet have all appreciated
in value. So what we're doing is
877
01:04:27.679 --> 01:04:30.599
we don't have to necessarily play the
game of where interest rate's going to go.
878
01:04:30.920 --> 01:04:32.360
That's what you are doing. If
you're buying a bond etf you have
879
01:04:32.480 --> 01:04:36.320
to kind of know where instrates are
going, Whereas if you're buying actual individual
880
01:04:36.440 --> 01:04:40.159
bonds, you don't have to play
that game. You just have to hold
881
01:04:40.199 --> 01:04:43.079
the maturity, and it gives you
a lot more stability on that side of
882
01:04:43.119 --> 01:04:45.559
things. And that's one of the
coolest things about our firm and being part
883
01:04:45.599 --> 01:04:47.320
of an independent firm, is that
we can actually go on the market and
884
01:04:47.440 --> 01:04:54.039
buy those bonds, those treasury bonds, individual treasury bunds, individual corporate bunds.
885
01:04:54.599 --> 01:04:57.719
Most money managers will just buy that
bond etf and let it get hammered
886
01:04:57.760 --> 01:05:00.519
in twenty twenty two. That's not
what we do. Can do a little
887
01:05:00.519 --> 01:05:03.400
bit more. We have more freedom, yes, and as well as it
888
01:05:03.480 --> 01:05:09.079
could be other buckets on the fixed
income side, like high income. A
889
01:05:09.159 --> 01:05:13.400
lot of people have a have a
hard time understanding what high income means.
890
01:05:14.280 --> 01:05:17.840
All bonds have a risk associated with
them. A company that is kind of
891
01:05:18.039 --> 01:05:21.519
close to bankruptcy, it's going to
be the worst rating. Right, They're
892
01:05:21.559 --> 01:05:26.599
going to offer you the highest rate
of return to buy their bond. Why
893
01:05:26.800 --> 01:05:29.239
because they have to, Right,
they don't look good on the books.
894
01:05:30.599 --> 01:05:34.039
You have to attract the people for
a risk adjusted way. If you're buying
895
01:05:34.079 --> 01:05:38.840
an Apple bond, we we know
they're not going to really ninety nine point
896
01:05:38.880 --> 01:05:41.440
nine percent. Probably they're going to
be around next year, right, so
897
01:05:41.519 --> 01:05:45.280
they don't have to offer you a
lot higher than the benchmark tenure US rate
898
01:05:45.400 --> 01:05:47.599
is offering you. So when you're
looking at bonds, it does depend on
899
01:05:47.679 --> 01:05:54.280
the quality of them. So high
income is you are buying some questionable companies,
900
01:05:54.599 --> 01:05:57.639
So you're not actually going to be
buying individual high income bonds in that
901
01:05:57.840 --> 01:06:00.199
tranch. What you want to do
is buy a basket of them, a
902
01:06:00.320 --> 01:06:03.480
thousand of different junk bonds. That
way, if six hundred of them go
903
01:06:03.679 --> 01:06:08.039
default, you still have four hundred
that are going to even out the overall
904
01:06:08.760 --> 01:06:12.320
ETF's performance. And so there are
a lot of things that when people say,
905
01:06:12.360 --> 01:06:15.639
oh, look at this thing paying
ten twelve percent, it doesn't necessarily
906
01:06:15.719 --> 01:06:18.000
mean that's what it is because it
could go bankrupt, and it doesn't mean
907
01:06:18.039 --> 01:06:20.760
you're going to get your principle back
if they do. So you have to
908
01:06:20.880 --> 01:06:26.320
understand high income versus investment grade and
then treasuries. There's three different kind of
909
01:06:26.400 --> 01:06:30.239
buckets of bonds, and that's what
we specialize and that's what we can help
910
01:06:30.280 --> 01:06:33.119
you with. It isn't necessarily rocket
science. So we have stocks and we
911
01:06:33.159 --> 01:06:38.599
have bonds. The rocket science part
comes with how to allocate the stocks,
912
01:06:38.920 --> 01:06:43.440
how to allocate the bonds. And
our objective at the end of the day
913
01:06:44.119 --> 01:06:49.119
is to have a portfolio that is
consistent with your risk tolerance and your investment
914
01:06:49.199 --> 01:06:53.960
objectives, because if we're all on
the same page, we can handle the
915
01:06:54.039 --> 01:06:58.360
inevitable dips to come along without panicking
well. And this is a big part
916
01:06:58.400 --> 01:07:00.880
of what we do with our strategic
income model, where we're trying to generate
917
01:07:01.159 --> 01:07:05.320
income for retirement for our clients.
A huge part of that is the fixed
918
01:07:05.360 --> 01:07:11.880
income allocation. It's roughly a fifty
to fifty give or take allocation with fixed
919
01:07:11.920 --> 01:07:15.800
income and equity and fixed income.
Sign is built upon this so we can
920
01:07:15.880 --> 01:07:18.639
figure we can generate some income for
them during retirement, try and bridge any
921
01:07:18.679 --> 01:07:24.440
gaps of their expenses and what they're
getting from Social Security, your pensions or
922
01:07:24.440 --> 01:07:27.199
anything like that, or if they
have to just rely on there, say
923
01:07:27.239 --> 01:07:30.039
that four one K that they're rolled
into an IRA, they got to rely
924
01:07:30.159 --> 01:07:32.760
heavily on that for income. That's
how we build it. Build it through
925
01:07:32.760 --> 01:07:38.440
a series of bond laddering high income
and if you want the details, we
926
01:07:38.519 --> 01:07:42.000
can get into in person. It's
much easier to explain. Yeah, the
927
01:07:42.079 --> 01:07:45.239
sim model is really cool, the
strategic income model that we put together because
928
01:07:45.639 --> 01:07:48.199
the predominant way of distribution is that, hey, I'm just going to sell
929
01:07:48.280 --> 01:07:51.400
the first of the month, the
first of the year, and that's going
930
01:07:51.480 --> 01:07:55.280
to I'm going to sell out of
the portfolio that I need for living expenses
931
01:07:55.360 --> 01:07:58.280
for that year. But that's not
necessarily the best time to be selling.
932
01:07:58.559 --> 01:08:00.320
The only way to know is to
be systematic, to be tactical. One
933
01:08:00.320 --> 01:08:02.920
of the things that clients always come
in and tell us is we don't like
934
01:08:03.039 --> 01:08:06.079
our advisor or old advisor that used
to say it, just sit out and
935
01:08:06.159 --> 01:08:11.039
wait. And so what we do
is we put three four five years of
936
01:08:11.119 --> 01:08:15.039
income put away into these treasuries guaranteed
products. That way we know we have
937
01:08:15.159 --> 01:08:16.640
the income that we need for at
least three, four or five years.
938
01:08:17.039 --> 01:08:20.439
The reason we do that is Dave
knows this since forty years of experience,
939
01:08:20.520 --> 01:08:24.079
the market's up three out of every
four years. So all we have to
940
01:08:24.119 --> 01:08:26.239
do is play the waiting game.
But the worst thing you could do is
941
01:08:26.279 --> 01:08:29.039
sell at bottoms. Right the old
adage you want to buy low, sell
942
01:08:29.159 --> 01:08:31.359
high. But if you're taking distribution, sometimes you don't get a decide when
943
01:08:31.399 --> 01:08:34.560
you're selling, and you might be
selling low. But if we have income
944
01:08:34.600 --> 01:08:38.640
put away, we don't have to
decide to sell there. We can actually
945
01:08:38.720 --> 01:08:42.439
sell at more opportune times. And
that's really what that purpose of the SIM
946
01:08:42.520 --> 01:08:46.960
model is. Yes, to take
away the nervousness of market fluctuations for a
947
01:08:47.079 --> 01:08:50.560
four or five year period. And
what we'll do is we'll show you the
948
01:08:50.640 --> 01:08:55.600
SIM model for your value, your
distribution, what you need throughout the years,
949
01:08:55.800 --> 01:08:58.600
and we'll map it on the worst
possible time. We think that you
950
01:08:58.640 --> 01:09:01.239
could have decided to retire right at
two thousand, because at two thousand you
951
01:09:01.319 --> 01:09:04.960
had three straight years negative ten,
negative thirteen, negative twenty three, five
952
01:09:05.039 --> 01:09:08.439
years you had good growth and then
boom, two thousand and eight happened.
953
01:09:08.680 --> 01:09:12.720
I mean, that's a pretty tough
seven years to start your retirement, yes,
954
01:09:12.960 --> 01:09:15.119
right, And so we want to
show you what would your portfolio look
955
01:09:15.199 --> 01:09:18.640
like if we took out the distributions
that you're asking for and we really went
956
01:09:18.720 --> 01:09:21.720
through the S and P five hundred
back tests during that time. Does it
957
01:09:21.800 --> 01:09:26.680
survive? Right? Does it survive
your period from two thousand and twenty twenty
958
01:09:26.720 --> 01:09:30.000
three? And that can really help
people bomb some fears as well, thinking
959
01:09:30.039 --> 01:09:31.960
about that is kind of one of
the worst times you could have retired.
960
01:09:32.079 --> 01:09:35.239
And the idea of this SIM model
is that it's more liquid. I mean
961
01:09:35.239 --> 01:09:40.600
because you can go into an annuity
and they can generate income. Biggest differences
962
01:09:40.680 --> 01:09:44.760
they guarantee that income from different areas, but it's locked up. Your money
963
01:09:44.840 --> 01:09:46.880
is locked up into an annuity and
you have surrender charges all these different fees.
964
01:09:47.279 --> 01:09:50.680
The sim model is much more liquid
in case of emergencies or something like
965
01:09:50.760 --> 01:09:54.479
that. And also when we have
cash, we don't just sit it and
966
01:09:54.720 --> 01:09:58.640
earn enoughing like it is in most
people's bank accounts. It's actually we take
967
01:09:58.680 --> 01:10:01.359
an active approach and al at it
to a Vanguard money market that's paying us
968
01:10:01.359 --> 01:10:05.079
around five point two percent currently,
and so it is are still earning money
969
01:10:05.119 --> 01:10:10.760
when we're waiting looking for opportunities.
We are being tactical right now with the
970
01:10:10.800 --> 01:10:13.640
Vanguard paying over five percent, that
we can be patient with getting into the
971
01:10:13.680 --> 01:10:15.800
markets. Because four years ago with
that same fund, that money market phone
972
01:10:15.840 --> 01:10:19.520
was paying point zero one. So
we were trying very actively to find ways
973
01:10:19.560 --> 01:10:24.079
to get more income because that Vanguard
wasn't paying much. But when it does,
974
01:10:24.479 --> 01:10:28.079
we take advantage of being patient so
we can get stuff going. Our
975
01:10:28.119 --> 01:10:32.600
clearing firm on the money market fund
is currently paying point eight and Vanguard is
976
01:10:32.640 --> 01:10:38.680
paying five point two eight. It
is very very easy for us to just
977
01:10:38.880 --> 01:10:43.840
leave it in our clearing firm money
market fund, way easier than buying and
978
01:10:44.000 --> 01:10:49.479
selling Vanguard on a daily basis.
But that's a big difference to every client.
979
01:10:49.880 --> 01:10:56.479
We have something like twenty five million
dollars in the Vanguard fund, that's
980
01:10:56.520 --> 01:10:59.960
a four percent difference. That's a
million dollars a year worth of interest from
981
01:11:00.079 --> 01:11:02.239
making for our clients just by being
aware of what's going on. Also,
982
01:11:02.720 --> 01:11:10.800
you don't see individual treasuries, individual
corporate bonds in most managed accounts, and
983
01:11:10.880 --> 01:11:15.239
the reason you don't put it is
because it's an incredible amount of work to
984
01:11:15.399 --> 01:11:17.920
do that. But we're you know, we're happy to do that work,
985
01:11:17.960 --> 01:11:20.960
and we want to keep doing that
work, and we think it's the right
986
01:11:21.000 --> 01:11:25.159
thing to do, and it's really
working out well. We know what when
987
01:11:25.199 --> 01:11:27.880
our bonds are going to mature,
we know exactly we're going to get that
988
01:11:28.000 --> 01:11:30.920
money back. We're going to get
rate of interest as competitive with ETFs and
989
01:11:31.000 --> 01:11:35.439
mutual funds. And it just takes
a lot more work, and again we're
990
01:11:35.439 --> 01:11:39.279
more than happy to put in that
work. And we would like to take
991
01:11:39.279 --> 01:11:42.239
a minute to thank you for joining
us on this Sunday morning. We're about
992
01:11:42.279 --> 01:11:45.000
to take a quick break here,
we'll be back. We've got two more
993
01:11:45.039 --> 01:11:49.000
segments of The Money Matter Show.
Thank you for listening. Welcome back to
994
01:11:49.039 --> 01:11:53.000
The Money Matter Show. My name
is Todd Glick. I'm here with Dylan
995
01:11:53.039 --> 01:11:58.199
Greenberg, Dave Sherwood, and Sebastian
Borssini. We had an interesting labor report
996
01:11:58.279 --> 01:12:00.920
came out this week. Some people
would look at it and shake their heads
997
01:12:01.239 --> 01:12:04.000
or scratch their heads, thinking,
how did that possible. We have a
998
01:12:04.079 --> 01:12:08.840
non farm payrolls that went up,
but the unemployment rate also went up.
999
01:12:09.399 --> 01:12:12.600
To me, that tells me that
there's a structural change, and actually it's
1000
01:12:12.680 --> 01:12:15.399
not as crazy as some people would
say it is. I think what it
1001
01:12:15.520 --> 01:12:19.119
really shows is full time employees going
to part time and more part time employees
1002
01:12:19.159 --> 01:12:24.319
actually being added. And that's what
the non farm payrolls is showing that these
1003
01:12:24.399 --> 01:12:27.640
jobs are being part time. They're
adding part time jobs, not full time
1004
01:12:27.720 --> 01:12:30.840
jobs, and more people are losing
their full time jobs are being changed a
1005
01:12:30.920 --> 01:12:32.600
part time. There's one of the
few things that makes any sense when you
1006
01:12:32.680 --> 01:12:35.239
look at that report. That's the
only thing that can make sense with them.
1007
01:12:35.439 --> 01:12:39.119
You know, one of the things
that we look at as a veteran
1008
01:12:39.199 --> 01:12:45.000
of this business is mergers and acquisitions. Companies don't buy other companies when they're
1009
01:12:45.039 --> 01:12:49.199
concerned about the future. They buy
their companies when they're excited about the future.
1010
01:12:49.319 --> 01:12:53.199
So you'd like to see a pick
up in that kind of activity.
1011
01:12:53.680 --> 01:12:56.920
Most of it occurs over the weekend. And interestingly, when we walked in
1012
01:12:57.079 --> 01:13:01.119
last Monday morning, it's so common
to have take place over the weekend that
1013
01:13:01.159 --> 01:13:06.640
they call them Monday has a nickname
Merger Mondays, like Tuesday has turnaround Tuesday,
1014
01:13:06.640 --> 01:13:10.479
you know, if the market's going
up or down, and typically Tuesday
1015
01:13:10.600 --> 01:13:14.119
is a turnaround day. So and
Merger Monday, we walk in, we
1016
01:13:14.239 --> 01:13:20.039
find out that Stereocycle, that's a
medical waste disposal company, is going to
1017
01:13:20.039 --> 01:13:25.920
be bought by Waste Management. We
find out that Marine Max that's a recreational
1018
01:13:26.000 --> 01:13:30.960
boat and yacht company is going to
be bought by One Water Marine, a
1019
01:13:30.039 --> 01:13:38.000
competitor, and Paramount Gullible has a
revised buyout offer from Skydance Media. So
1020
01:13:38.520 --> 01:13:42.039
on Monday morning, first thing out
of the shoot. Three mergers, and
1021
01:13:42.159 --> 01:13:46.279
again, mergers don't tend to take
place when there's concern about the future,
1022
01:13:46.880 --> 01:13:51.600
right, But also you know the
interesting numbers of this year is that bankruptcies
1023
01:13:51.640 --> 01:13:58.239
are actually still pretty elevated, and
you don't hear about it a lot because
1024
01:13:58.239 --> 01:14:01.079
I feel like they're the smaller companies
that are going through the corporate bankruptcies.
1025
01:14:01.239 --> 01:14:04.039
Yeah. Yeah, it just seems
weird, you know, because you don't
1026
01:14:04.039 --> 01:14:06.479
see a lot of the big ones
going out like a couple of years ago.
1027
01:14:06.520 --> 01:14:11.000
Yeah, that we works and a
whole bunch of kind of big technologies
1028
01:14:11.039 --> 01:14:14.079
going out. But right now it
just seems maybe some of the small ones,
1029
01:14:14.119 --> 01:14:16.479
but the small cap space seem to
have had or found a little bit
1030
01:14:16.520 --> 01:14:21.880
of a bottom bounce back or try
to bounce back, but it still gets
1031
01:14:23.399 --> 01:14:27.199
still finding a trouble funding the footing. Yeah, Russell two thousand, down
1032
01:14:27.239 --> 01:14:31.079
two point one percent for the month
and up two tenths of one percent in
1033
01:14:31.279 --> 01:14:34.199
one of the strongest years we've had
in a while. Yeah, So there
1034
01:14:34.520 --> 01:14:39.880
just is not a lot of interest
in small cap stocks right at this point
1035
01:14:39.880 --> 01:14:43.159
in time. We're gonna have a
couple of economic numbers next week that are
1036
01:14:43.199 --> 01:14:46.880
fairly important. On Wednesday we get
the CPI and on Thursday we get the
1037
01:14:46.920 --> 01:14:53.359
PPI, and we know that the
pc the personal consumption Expenditure Index is the
1038
01:14:53.439 --> 01:14:59.359
fed's favorite measure of inflation, but
CPI goes a long ways. CPI is
1039
01:14:59.439 --> 01:15:05.520
probably the most most widely publicized measure, So on Wednesday morning, look for
1040
01:15:05.600 --> 01:15:10.680
that CPI to be a market mover
one way or the other. I've talked
1041
01:15:10.720 --> 01:15:14.600
a lot on the show about Cava
Grill only because it's kind of the fastest
1042
01:15:14.640 --> 01:15:18.840
growing restaurant in the country, and
we shot before about it being a Mediterranean
1043
01:15:18.960 --> 01:15:24.319
Chipotle with the bread instead of that
what do they call it? Red?
1044
01:15:24.399 --> 01:15:28.039
I can't think of Peter, thank
you with Peter bread instead of tortillas,
1045
01:15:28.079 --> 01:15:31.159
and the word escape me. So
it's like at Chipotle with Mediterranean food instead
1046
01:15:31.199 --> 01:15:36.920
of Mexican and Peter's instead of tortillas. And shares have more than doubled just
1047
01:15:38.000 --> 01:15:41.880
this year. JP Morgan came out
on Monday and said that's too much,
1048
01:15:42.520 --> 01:15:45.840
downgraded the stock from a bye to
a hold, sending us down down seven
1049
01:15:45.920 --> 01:15:48.720
percent. Said, hey, did
you mention that we had the FED next
1050
01:15:48.760 --> 01:15:55.920
week too? Uh, I'm not
seeing FED. I'm seeing on June twelfth,
1051
01:15:55.920 --> 01:15:59.039
we have a FED interest rate decision. It could be right, and
1052
01:15:59.079 --> 01:16:01.279
there's this are these are important because
they're actually going to show their interest rate
1053
01:16:01.359 --> 01:16:03.960
projections for the first, second,
third year, and their current ones.
1054
01:16:04.079 --> 01:16:09.600
So those were the dot plots they
talk about, the dot plots that the
1055
01:16:09.720 --> 01:16:13.920
market really cares about that because it's
showing what the seven FED members are all
1056
01:16:14.039 --> 01:16:16.000
thinking, where interest rates are going
over the next couple of years. That
1057
01:16:16.119 --> 01:16:20.399
can really influence the ten year and
where rates are right now. So I
1058
01:16:20.479 --> 01:16:23.640
think that's gonna be a big,
big one too. What day is that?
1059
01:16:24.239 --> 01:16:29.039
Wednesday? June twelfth, CPI and
and the FED, so I FED,
1060
01:16:29.159 --> 01:16:32.079
I FED is Wednesday. That's what
my economic calendar says. Yes,
1061
01:16:32.439 --> 01:16:35.680
I didn't have it on this week's
economic calendar, although it may be I
1062
01:16:36.039 --> 01:16:40.399
can't. Yeah, it's currently sitting
that five point five, five point two,
1063
01:16:40.399 --> 01:16:42.800
five to five point five, so
probably just gonna hold. But it's
1064
01:16:42.840 --> 01:16:45.600
more of the dot plots that they
come out with. Bitcoin had an interesting
1065
01:16:45.720 --> 01:16:48.359
week. First two days. It
seemed like it was rallying over that seventy
1066
01:16:48.439 --> 01:16:51.159
k and we're back down below that
seventy thousand. IM pretty sure as of
1067
01:16:51.239 --> 01:16:55.560
Friday's closed. Yeah, right at
support where you want to see it.
1068
01:16:55.800 --> 01:16:59.119
I was interesting, real bullish on
that space right now. I was interested
1069
01:16:59.159 --> 01:17:01.159
to see the miners. I thought
they were going to catch a little bit
1070
01:17:01.239 --> 01:17:05.239
higher of a bid. But I
saw some report that came out from Carrosill
1071
01:17:05.319 --> 01:17:12.479
Capital which discussed to disclose a short
position right, and they say that all
1072
01:17:12.560 --> 01:17:15.680
we right platforms will always remain too
high cost to mind bitcoin profitably. What
1073
01:17:16.159 --> 01:17:18.079
are your thoughts on that? Yeah, I read the whole report, and
1074
01:17:18.119 --> 01:17:21.039
then I looked into their other trades
and realized they are not doing good on
1075
01:17:21.159 --> 01:17:25.479
most of them. Capital. Yeah, I was actually looking at that too.
1076
01:17:25.520 --> 01:17:29.880
They've been shorting it shorted Carvana since
February and that was a terrible trade
1077
01:17:29.920 --> 01:17:31.600
for them. I don't think they
have a really good and then you look.
1078
01:17:31.680 --> 01:17:35.000
I actually looked up them seeking Alpha, where they've been on since twenty
1079
01:17:35.079 --> 01:17:39.600
ten, and their average hit rate
is a thirty nine percent. They lose
1080
01:17:39.720 --> 01:17:42.520
most of their recommendations, so I
don't I don't care. I was also
1081
01:17:42.600 --> 01:17:45.680
on casing Capital's thing, but I
was looking at the Carvana report and at
1082
01:17:45.680 --> 01:17:47.840
the end of it it says Carvana
shares should be worthless. You know,
1083
01:17:48.399 --> 01:17:50.840
I just got a little bit of
a kickout. Yeah, I mean short
1084
01:17:50.880 --> 01:17:57.319
sellers get real, you know whatever. Wow, Yeah, Well, anything
1085
01:17:57.399 --> 01:18:00.520
they can do to drive the price
of the stock down right because sold it.
1086
01:18:00.640 --> 01:18:03.119
They came out on Twitter that we're
going into war against Root, the
1087
01:18:03.520 --> 01:18:05.840
mining company. It's like, okay, if you're going to war against the
1088
01:18:05.840 --> 01:18:09.760
stock, you're getting a little too
emotional about it. You know, Investing
1089
01:18:09.840 --> 01:18:14.079
is not supposed to be emotional,
supposed to be driven with rational reasons.
1090
01:18:14.159 --> 01:18:16.479
Ultimately, it seems that theres a
lot of short interest against these miners,
1091
01:18:16.560 --> 01:18:19.479
and eventually you can see there's a
lot of suppression. I would not be
1092
01:18:19.720 --> 01:18:24.239
surprised to see them pop, but
it's not I would say, if you're
1093
01:18:24.279 --> 01:18:28.800
invested in interesting bitcoin, not necessarily
going into minings is going to be the
1094
01:18:28.840 --> 01:18:31.119
safest route to go. Well,
I'm mistaken that you were thinking that the
1095
01:18:31.560 --> 01:18:36.600
top on bitcoin was around seventy and
you expected did you drop back to sixty
1096
01:18:36.680 --> 01:18:40.439
three? I know I did expect
the job down sixty three, and I
1097
01:18:40.520 --> 01:18:43.880
was surprised that didn't. It only
dropped around sixty seven and then popped right
1098
01:18:43.960 --> 01:18:45.760
back up to seventy one. Now
it's back down the sixty nine. I'm
1099
01:18:45.800 --> 01:18:48.560
thinking here, I really like it. I think it's going to hit a
1100
01:18:48.600 --> 01:18:51.199
new all time high in the next
probably a month or so. I want
1101
01:18:51.199 --> 01:18:55.119
to ce NBC. Do you think
it'll hit a million this year? Not
1102
01:18:55.239 --> 01:18:59.039
a million this year, but one
hundred a million, one hundred thousand.
1103
01:18:59.319 --> 01:19:03.119
I think chance that was on CNBC
was a million. My peak for this
1104
01:19:04.800 --> 01:19:11.199
must a lot of the ets.
Best Buy, the much maligned on this
1105
01:19:11.359 --> 01:19:16.159
show retailer, hit a new fifty
two week high on Monday after City Group
1106
01:19:16.439 --> 01:19:20.840
I finally went from it and they
did a double upgrade from sell to buy.
1107
01:19:21.000 --> 01:19:25.680
They've been one of the most negative
analysts on the street. On best
1108
01:19:25.760 --> 01:19:29.920
Buy went from a cell to a
buy and said the electronics retailer should see
1109
01:19:30.359 --> 01:19:36.279
upside to earnings and valuations as consumers
replaced technology and artificial intelligence lifts demand.
1110
01:19:38.600 --> 01:19:42.439
We were talking about game Stop in
the in the connection between Best buying game
1111
01:19:42.479 --> 01:19:45.800
Stop, which is what it's pretty
much a brick and mortar disc shop.
1112
01:19:46.119 --> 01:19:49.399
Yeah, like video games disc you
don't download. If you need to buy
1113
01:19:49.439 --> 01:19:53.159
your video games, where you're gonna
go. There's really three options, Best
1114
01:19:53.199 --> 01:19:55.920
Buy, Walmart, or game Stop. And not to mention, you could
1115
01:19:55.960 --> 01:20:01.600
buy games off of Xbox, Microsoft
platforms, even Playstock or PlayStation platforms,
1116
01:20:01.600 --> 01:20:05.720
and they also have these as if
it were Netflix, a subscription based service
1117
01:20:05.840 --> 01:20:10.159
to games that you pay a monthly
feed ten dollars a month, and each
1118
01:20:10.279 --> 01:20:14.640
month you get a new cycle of
games, cycle of thirty games that can
1119
01:20:14.800 --> 01:20:17.720
definitely hurt a stock her company like
game Stop or even Best Buy. Well,
1120
01:20:17.720 --> 01:20:20.239
we should bring up Game Stopping.
It was a pretty crazy week for
1121
01:20:20.399 --> 01:20:25.359
it bounced real high in the early
weeks and then sold off big on Friday.
1122
01:20:25.399 --> 01:20:27.439
It was a meme stock. I
mean, the company should be out
1123
01:20:27.479 --> 01:20:30.920
of business. They have no they
have not according to Roryan Kitty. You're
1124
01:20:30.319 --> 01:20:33.560
the one that started this. You
know, they have no business being in
1125
01:20:33.720 --> 01:20:38.479
business. My thing with it is
he came out on Friday and was saying
1126
01:20:38.520 --> 01:20:42.600
something about how he's not he's making
a bet on the management of game Stop.
1127
01:20:42.600 --> 01:20:45.479
He's making a bet on Ryan Cohen. Right This was the same bet
1128
01:20:45.560 --> 01:20:48.359
that he made two years ago.
Ryan Cohen has done nothing besides to sell
1129
01:20:48.399 --> 01:20:51.960
his own shares well, and that's
the thing, and that's why it dropped
1130
01:20:51.960 --> 01:20:55.319
a lot. They said, Ryan
Kitty just came out and said a bunch
1131
01:20:55.359 --> 01:20:58.520
of the same things from years ago, like that, and nothing new.
1132
01:20:58.640 --> 01:21:02.239
So that's why people sold something is
a reason. It's also just not a
1133
01:21:02.279 --> 01:21:05.680
great company right now. And yeah, I mean it wasn't before you know,
1134
01:21:05.960 --> 01:21:10.920
before all this happened. Without the
meme madness, they'd be gone.
1135
01:21:12.279 --> 01:21:15.239
Wouldn't you agree? Without the meme
madness day, would you gone? Yeah?
1136
01:21:15.319 --> 01:21:18.920
Pretty close. I mean the only
reason games Stout stayed in business was
1137
01:21:18.960 --> 01:21:24.439
because I watched the movie. Because
when they were during the pandemic, they
1138
01:21:24.479 --> 01:21:28.359
were able to stay open because they
sold mouses. It and it made them
1139
01:21:28.399 --> 01:21:30.520
an essentral business, so they were
able to actually stay open. And then
1140
01:21:30.720 --> 01:21:34.800
the whole meme stock started. But
I just thought that was interesting little tidbit
1141
01:21:34.920 --> 01:21:39.439
that they were able to be in
an essential, essential business because they sold
1142
01:21:39.680 --> 01:21:43.680
mouse. It is interesting. We've
talked a lot about the two stocks buying
1143
01:21:43.800 --> 01:21:46.319
for the worst stock in the Dow, which is Intel and Boying. You
1144
01:21:46.439 --> 01:21:50.840
got a battle going back and forth
to see who's the worst. On Tuesday,
1145
01:21:50.840 --> 01:21:58.079
I think it was the company Intel
announced a new artificial intelligence chip aimed
1146
01:21:58.119 --> 01:22:01.319
at competing with those from rivals in
video and a MD. Now, all
1147
01:22:01.399 --> 01:22:05.560
you've got to do to get your
stock to bounce is to say you're involved
1148
01:22:05.600 --> 01:22:11.600
in AI. Right, So what
happened? Doctor bumped at all? Nothing
1149
01:22:11.720 --> 01:22:16.079
close that day lower that charts looking
interesting. It went to a fifty two
1150
01:22:16.079 --> 01:22:23.920
weeks and it's just absolutely of no
interest to anybody, and except for Phoenix
1151
01:22:24.039 --> 01:22:27.239
because they are still building their factory
up there, and I can't imagine you're
1152
01:22:27.279 --> 01:22:30.279
a big company building a multi billion
dollar factory and you're going to go out
1153
01:22:30.279 --> 01:22:34.000
of business. So at a certain
point there's a value. If you haven't
1154
01:22:34.000 --> 01:22:36.399
seen this thing up there, it
is huge too. Oh no, I've
1155
01:22:36.399 --> 01:22:40.600
seen It's enormous. Is just the
one off of Iken. This is the
1156
01:22:40.640 --> 01:22:44.159
one, Yeah, the one see
when you drive out of Phoenix. Yeah,
1157
01:22:44.319 --> 01:22:45.840
it's gigantic. It looks like a
city. And then you got like
1158
01:22:46.159 --> 01:22:50.560
seventeen or fifty cranes up in the
area. It's a building. They have
1159
01:22:50.640 --> 01:22:54.399
to build those. Uh we're talking
to a client and he was saying he's
1160
01:22:54.399 --> 01:22:57.760
an electrician for those buildings up there, and he was saying that you got
1161
01:22:57.840 --> 01:23:00.920
to build six foot or what they're
doing is, well, this Taiwan summer
1162
01:23:00.920 --> 01:23:05.000
conductor, and I'm sure Intel is
similar building six foot thick concrete walls and
1163
01:23:05.119 --> 01:23:09.439
that's how they have to do it
in sense of seismic activity, right.
1164
01:23:09.840 --> 01:23:13.439
But he's thinking they're doing it because
they just a status quo over in Taiwan
1165
01:23:13.479 --> 01:23:15.199
how to build it, and they're
building with the same plans. I can
1166
01:23:15.239 --> 01:23:18.439
see that. That's crazy. The
way they build those things is insane.
1167
01:23:18.479 --> 01:23:21.640
Todd has a lot on that.
Yeah, the way that they moved the
1168
01:23:21.760 --> 01:23:27.560
forward with again the seismic activity and
whatnot. Yeah, I mean their ginormous
1169
01:23:27.600 --> 01:23:30.960
factories. We also heard that Taiwan
also brought over their chemical factory that's going
1170
01:23:31.000 --> 01:23:34.079
to be put into Cassa Grant.
Calci Grant is going to be a huge
1171
01:23:34.159 --> 01:23:38.359
chemical and manufacturing hub, they say, because of all these things. So
1172
01:23:38.439 --> 01:23:41.520
it's really interesting. I didn't know
that. How we'll talk on the next
1173
01:23:41.520 --> 01:23:44.720
segment. I think it's an interesting
to how actual chips are etched and made.
1174
01:23:45.319 --> 01:23:46.680
I didn't know this, so I
think it would be an interesting thing
1175
01:23:46.720 --> 01:23:49.399
to talk about how much I make
an actor report a year over your revenue
1176
01:23:49.439 --> 01:23:53.800
gain of forty not too bad,
not too bad? Right? Killing it?
1177
01:23:53.920 --> 01:23:56.840
Yep, they're killing it, so
it'll be interesting. They had to.
1178
01:23:56.960 --> 01:24:00.039
You know, they've had some real
struggles in Phoenix with not only materials
1179
01:24:00.319 --> 01:24:03.600
and spec but getting the kind of
help they need. So hopefully we'll get
1180
01:24:03.640 --> 01:24:06.920
it done. In Arizona's going to
become a hotspot for tech. So we'll
1181
01:24:06.960 --> 01:24:11.319
be back with the final segment of
The Money Matter Show right after this break.
1182
01:24:11.359 --> 01:24:15.399
Thanks again for joining us. Welcome
back to the Money Matter Show.
1183
01:24:15.439 --> 01:24:18.399
My name is Sebastian Borsenium here with
Todd click Junior, Dylan Greenberg and our
1184
01:24:18.600 --> 01:24:21.840
good friend Jonathan Sabilia. How are
you doing today? Very well? How
1185
01:24:21.880 --> 01:24:27.199
are you all right? Jonathan?
Before we get into trust, did you
1186
01:24:27.279 --> 01:24:30.239
know how they make chips chips?
Yeah, you know how they make those
1187
01:24:30.279 --> 01:24:33.399
little little micro chips. So the
little micro chips in your phone, like
1188
01:24:33.439 --> 01:24:38.279
the nvidio chips that tellduct to chips, the Intel chips and all those little
1189
01:24:38.319 --> 01:24:41.239
things chips. Is it a trick
question? No, we learn about it.
1190
01:24:42.479 --> 01:24:46.039
We're just setting it up. But
what it is is a chemical actually,
1191
01:24:46.560 --> 01:24:50.319
so they make these little etchings onto
these little devices, and that's how
1192
01:24:50.439 --> 01:24:55.239
the processor is able to send the
information around to it. But you can't
1193
01:24:55.359 --> 01:24:59.159
just like put a little like pin
needle on it. You Actually, they
1194
01:24:59.319 --> 01:25:02.800
have a lazy your etching machine and
they use a chemical to layer this on
1195
01:25:03.079 --> 01:25:08.239
and they're able to etch layers on
layers on layers into something that is just
1196
01:25:08.560 --> 01:25:13.880
microscopic small, and that's how Taiwan
and in the video, and they'll make
1197
01:25:13.960 --> 01:25:17.439
all these silicon plates themselves and actually
able to produce the chip. And it's
1198
01:25:17.560 --> 01:25:20.640
fascinating and when you think about how
they're actually able to do that hard And
1199
01:25:20.840 --> 01:25:24.800
the reason we're bringing that up too
is because there is a like we said
1200
01:25:24.800 --> 01:25:29.199
in the previous segment, was Taiwan
semi Conductor is bringing their chemical company over
1201
01:25:29.239 --> 01:25:31.720
here and they're building some cells a
factory in Costa Grand. It's gonna be
1202
01:25:31.920 --> 01:25:38.560
specifically produce that chemical for the Taiwan
semiconductor factory going up in Phoenix. I
1203
01:25:38.640 --> 01:25:42.239
knew all this stuff. A lot
of Costa Grand farmland getting bought up and
1204
01:25:42.359 --> 01:25:45.279
being changed into manufacturing. So that's
gonna be an interesting thing to see.
1205
01:25:45.319 --> 01:25:48.960
How that city farmers aren't too happy, Some people that live in Casta Grond
1206
01:25:49.199 --> 01:25:54.479
forever aren't too happy. But they're
building a lot to turning kind of turn
1207
01:25:54.560 --> 01:25:57.399
it into a lot of the Phoenix. Bringing a lot of big corporations,
1208
01:25:57.479 --> 01:26:01.119
big factories over there. Intel Intel
tell us about more have a lot of
1209
01:26:01.119 --> 01:26:04.840
clients. It's around there, yep, exactly. So interesting factors are being
1210
01:26:04.880 --> 01:26:11.880
built up, not as interesting as
communal property or frozen constraate orange juice.
1211
01:26:12.920 --> 01:26:15.399
You guys know which one do you
want to talk about? John, Well,
1212
01:26:15.720 --> 01:26:17.239
I think frozen constraate oranges is a
lot more fun. Do you guys
1213
01:26:17.279 --> 01:26:20.560
know about frozen constraate orangers? No, it's doesn't usually pop up on my
1214
01:26:20.680 --> 01:26:24.359
radar. Actually, come on,
you're in a finance No, no,
1215
01:26:24.439 --> 01:26:27.760
hold on, say that again.
Trading places, trading place. You're talking
1216
01:26:27.760 --> 01:26:30.079
about a movie, the movie nineteen
eighty three. Oh, you're dating yourself.
1217
01:26:30.159 --> 01:26:32.920
No, that was young when that
I was like two years old when
1218
01:26:32.960 --> 01:26:36.880
that movie came out, so before
my time as well. That's a classic,
1219
01:26:38.000 --> 01:26:41.000
guys. Tell me about this orange
juice? Yeah, what's this frozen
1220
01:26:41.079 --> 01:26:46.000
concentrated orange juice? Well, there
was a hard freeze in Florida in the
1221
01:26:46.079 --> 01:26:51.680
movie, and the commodity market was
going down for the frozen constraate orange juice
1222
01:26:51.720 --> 01:26:57.199
and Eddie Murphy and I think it
was I forgot who else was in the
1223
01:26:57.239 --> 01:27:01.720
movie. Just where's the connection where
they were trading stocks and bonds and trading
1224
01:27:01.760 --> 01:27:05.680
commodities and it's a big you know, I suggest you both, all three
1225
01:27:05.720 --> 01:27:09.800
of you guys go home this weekend. Don't go out, just stay in.
1226
01:27:09.960 --> 01:27:14.159
OK, we're talking about trading commodities. Trading commodities, Well, I
1227
01:27:14.199 --> 01:27:16.039
thought it's all either way we were
talking. We're going to talk to you
1228
01:27:16.199 --> 01:27:20.039
about today's communal property. It's a
big thing in this state because we do
1229
01:27:20.159 --> 01:27:25.279
we are community property stay here in
Arizona, and there's a lot of issues
1230
01:27:25.319 --> 01:27:29.399
with some people trying to keep money
separate. They don't want to commingle.
1231
01:27:29.479 --> 01:27:30.840
They want to you know, they've
been through a divorce already. They don't
1232
01:27:30.840 --> 01:27:34.199
want to go through that stuff again. What are the type of things that
1233
01:27:34.239 --> 01:27:39.199
people need to know about. I
kind of know some, but I think
1234
01:27:39.279 --> 01:27:44.279
you can lay out the table better
on what the rules are around this equally
1235
01:27:44.359 --> 01:27:48.600
interesting as frozen constrain or juices,
community property and separate property rules here in
1236
01:27:48.680 --> 01:27:53.880
Arizona. Okay, So I don't
want to speak to other states, but
1237
01:27:54.319 --> 01:27:59.119
you know, there's a lot of
situations where you know, you inherit property
1238
01:27:59.399 --> 01:28:03.039
and that's inherit inherited, it's considered
separate property in a marriage, and some
1239
01:28:03.119 --> 01:28:05.239
people want to keep it that way. You know, they want to make
1240
01:28:05.239 --> 01:28:09.880
sure mom and Dad's you know,
property that they gave me is going to
1241
01:28:09.920 --> 01:28:12.159
go to my kids and not to
my spouse. Even though you love that
1242
01:28:12.279 --> 01:28:16.079
person, right, it's supposed to
stay inside the family. We have situations
1243
01:28:16.119 --> 01:28:19.239
where you come into a new marriage
and you have all this property. You
1244
01:28:19.279 --> 01:28:25.159
want to make sure it goes down
to your kids. Okay, there's a
1245
01:28:25.319 --> 01:28:31.760
presumption of community property if you generate
that asset while you're married. Okay,
1246
01:28:32.479 --> 01:28:36.640
generate or get that assets or presumption
of community property unless you deal with it
1247
01:28:36.720 --> 01:28:43.960
otherwise, including inherited assets, it's
considered separate property. But there will be
1248
01:28:44.039 --> 01:28:47.439
an argument because let's say you inherit
a house and you and your spouse move
1249
01:28:47.479 --> 01:28:54.079
into the house. Okay, Now
we're testing the community property waters whereas what
1250
01:28:54.119 --> 01:28:58.279
if it's an investment property. If
it's an investment property, okay, are
1251
01:28:58.319 --> 01:29:01.880
you using Let's say you're both are
working and your husband, you're you're what,
1252
01:29:02.119 --> 01:29:08.199
you're the wife or whatever. You're
the wife and your husband you both
1253
01:29:08.239 --> 01:29:12.920
get W two's and you both contribute
to the upkeep of that property with your
1254
01:29:13.079 --> 01:29:15.840
W two money. Okay, now
you're com mingling money. Now there's what's
1255
01:29:15.880 --> 01:29:20.920
called inequitable share that your spouse has. So if there's a divorce, maybe
1256
01:29:20.960 --> 01:29:24.680
there's a you know, one of
you dies, you know, there's an
1257
01:29:24.760 --> 01:29:30.239
argument that that property without taking the
proper precautions, could be up for grabs.
1258
01:29:30.399 --> 01:29:32.359
It's not as cutting black, you
know, cutting dry, as you
1259
01:29:32.439 --> 01:29:35.600
think it may be when it comes
to, hey, this isn't over here,
1260
01:29:35.680 --> 01:29:39.520
We're not. It's not I inherited
it. No, it's it can
1261
01:29:39.600 --> 01:29:42.479
be the littlest things like even if
you use the shared bank account with that
1262
01:29:42.560 --> 01:29:45.039
little bit of money boomed. So
even to say you inherit it and you
1263
01:29:45.159 --> 01:29:47.680
sell it immediately, you don't try
and live in it, you don't try
1264
01:29:47.680 --> 01:29:50.439
and use as investment property, rent
it out anything. You just sell that
1265
01:29:50.520 --> 01:29:54.840
property immediately. Same thing. You
could run into the same issues, well,
1266
01:29:54.880 --> 01:29:57.680
as long as you keep it separate, right, So if you inherit
1267
01:29:57.720 --> 01:30:00.199
it and then you sell it immediately, keep that in a separate bank account
1268
01:30:00.199 --> 01:30:03.359
if you want exactly the many you
put any of those pro seeds into the
1269
01:30:03.399 --> 01:30:05.800
same bank account, that's when it
can get dicey. I mean, yeah,
1270
01:30:05.840 --> 01:30:08.600
how do you prove it's you know, yeah, no, it makes
1271
01:30:08.640 --> 01:30:12.399
sense, but you start co mingling
funds. That's the famous term. You
1272
01:30:12.479 --> 01:30:15.279
know, it's hard to argue that
it's not us. You know. Something
1273
01:30:15.319 --> 01:30:17.199
I always think about is along this
line is a prenup. Right, they
1274
01:30:17.239 --> 01:30:20.960
always talk about you need to need
a prenup? Are they worth it in
1275
01:30:21.079 --> 01:30:25.640
this state? Is it necessary?
What are your thoughts on that? So
1276
01:30:25.880 --> 01:30:30.760
prenups are enforceable. The recommendation is
to both of you get spouses or spouses
1277
01:30:30.800 --> 01:30:34.239
both of you get attorneys. Okay, you before you get into the marriage,
1278
01:30:34.720 --> 01:30:38.560
you want an attorney to represent each
one of you. You do not
1279
01:30:38.640 --> 01:30:41.520
want to go to you don't want
to find one attorney both of you because
1280
01:30:41.840 --> 01:30:44.960
that attorney's got to advocate for both
of you guys, and you both will
1281
01:30:45.000 --> 01:30:48.479
have separate property, and you can't
advocate for you can't have a joint representation.
1282
01:30:48.640 --> 01:30:51.720
I don't believe you can have a
joint representation. I've called Arizona bar
1283
01:30:51.840 --> 01:30:56.560
on this. You can't have You
should not have a joint representation during a
1284
01:30:56.600 --> 01:31:00.000
prenup proceeding. Creating one sounds like
a conflict of interest. The ventures exactly
1285
01:31:00.159 --> 01:31:03.479
right. So what you do is
you'll both get your separate you'll both get
1286
01:31:03.520 --> 01:31:08.000
your own attorneys. We'll prepare the
prenup, and then each attorney is going
1287
01:31:08.039 --> 01:31:13.000
to review the review of the preup, review the prenup. And that's a
1288
01:31:13.119 --> 01:31:17.680
key thing to understand with the prenup
is you're not necessarily just as a one
1289
01:31:17.800 --> 01:31:21.520
individual of the party or the relationship
that you just need to do your own,
1290
01:31:21.640 --> 01:31:25.239
like you're saying, both need to
have representation. If you're going to
1291
01:31:25.279 --> 01:31:28.319
get a prenup. It's expensive,
but if your goal is to keep things
1292
01:31:28.359 --> 01:31:32.760
separate, you need to spend that
money, right and it could be enforced
1293
01:31:32.800 --> 01:31:38.319
even in Arizona, a communal property
state, as in you could keep things
1294
01:31:38.359 --> 01:31:43.000
separate if you sign a prenup with
the goal is once you know you're going
1295
01:31:43.039 --> 01:31:46.239
to spend all this money on upfront
for the prenup, now you still have
1296
01:31:46.399 --> 01:31:49.680
to have some due diligence to keep
things separate. Now, if you kept
1297
01:31:49.720 --> 01:31:53.840
the house separate, you know,
the investment property. But if you took
1298
01:31:53.920 --> 01:31:56.279
some of that, let's say,
Hope, I got fifty thousand dollars,
1299
01:31:56.319 --> 01:32:00.439
that's considered separate property that's in the
prenup, and then you start dipping it
1300
01:32:00.520 --> 01:32:03.680
into a joint or cash account.
Right now, we have problems. You
1301
01:32:03.760 --> 01:32:06.079
still have to be you know,
you still have to keep up with the
1302
01:32:06.159 --> 01:32:11.960
due diligence of it. But the
hard part is is that you guys have
1303
01:32:12.039 --> 01:32:15.720
been married. You want it's a
second marriage for both of you, guys,
1304
01:32:15.840 --> 01:32:18.039
or even for one of you,
and you both have children outside the
1305
01:32:18.079 --> 01:32:21.640
marriage, and you want to take
care of both kids, and you both
1306
01:32:21.680 --> 01:32:26.520
have separate property. Okay, I
just a big law firm. I just
1307
01:32:26.640 --> 01:32:30.439
reviewed one of their trusts, a
big law firm here apparently respected, and
1308
01:32:30.199 --> 01:32:33.119
they did a joint trust with a
bunch of separate property with a bunch of
1309
01:32:33.199 --> 01:32:38.800
ridiculous terms in there in that trust. And I don't want to say it's
1310
01:32:38.840 --> 01:32:42.239
not enforceable, but it wasn't the
best way of going about it. They
1311
01:32:42.239 --> 01:32:45.239
should have created two separate trusts.
Because they both had kids from outside the
1312
01:32:45.279 --> 01:32:47.479
marriage. They didn't have kids together. They should have put their separate property
1313
01:32:47.600 --> 01:32:50.880
in each separate trust. That's the
best way to protect it and keep it
1314
01:32:51.000 --> 01:32:56.159
that way. I've heard some horror
stories in the past, people trying to
1315
01:32:56.159 --> 01:32:59.600
get around the community property, and
I think it's just something to bring up
1316
01:33:00.159 --> 01:33:02.760
if there's any individual that tries to
say, I don't want this spouse to
1317
01:33:02.800 --> 01:33:06.199
get it. I'm just going to
spend all this money and improve the home
1318
01:33:06.279 --> 01:33:11.600
and at a pool and do all
this, and what could lead What are
1319
01:33:11.640 --> 01:33:14.880
some of the things that can happen
if they try to kind of hide money
1320
01:33:14.920 --> 01:33:18.359
through home improvements or new purchases or
things like that. You mean in the
1321
01:33:18.359 --> 01:33:21.760
house that that both of you own, right, I mean imagine you're going
1322
01:33:21.800 --> 01:33:26.359
through a divorce and you have your
assets now, but you know that she's
1323
01:33:26.399 --> 01:33:29.279
going to take half of it.
So before that happens, you spend half
1324
01:33:29.319 --> 01:33:31.800
of your assets and to improve things
that you're going to continue to have and
1325
01:33:31.880 --> 01:33:34.520
things like that. Well, I
don't know a lot about family law,
1326
01:33:35.239 --> 01:33:40.600
the area of family law. However, every time I speak to a client
1327
01:33:40.680 --> 01:33:45.000
and they went through a divorce,
those family law attorneys are expensive, and
1328
01:33:45.159 --> 01:33:49.520
part of that fifty sixty thousand dollars
legal fee that you pay that attorney is
1329
01:33:49.600 --> 01:33:55.800
that they are going through everybody's assets. We have a core proceeding. You
1330
01:33:55.880 --> 01:33:58.039
need to have an accounting. I
want to know exactly what you have.
1331
01:33:58.119 --> 01:34:01.039
They go through your they go through
your tax returns, they get all your
1332
01:34:01.199 --> 01:34:04.279
W two's, they want to know
all your pensions. They do I'm assuming
1333
01:34:04.439 --> 01:34:09.039
some sort of background check, financial
background check. They're gonna know what money
1334
01:34:09.079 --> 01:34:12.640
you have, Okay, they're gonna
find it. Spending all that money,
1335
01:34:12.880 --> 01:34:15.760
right, so hiding it you can
try go okay. I mean, if
1336
01:34:15.800 --> 01:34:17.680
you get paid in cash, because
you you know, maybe emos some lawns
1337
01:34:17.680 --> 01:34:24.119
on the side, fine, but
typically for the big dollar items, you're
1338
01:34:24.159 --> 01:34:26.279
not gonna you're not gonna be able
to hide it. Yeah, they're gonna
1339
01:34:26.279 --> 01:34:29.399
be able to find it. With
the with the things that are how they're
1340
01:34:29.399 --> 01:34:32.279
reported today. I mean it's pretty
easy to get a hold of those type
1341
01:34:32.279 --> 01:34:35.159
of records. Sure, yeah,
absolutely, so, you know, at
1342
01:34:35.199 --> 01:34:40.119
the end of the day, it's
my hardest clients are the ones that have
1343
01:34:40.279 --> 01:34:44.000
children outside the marriage and that have
separate property because they have different interests.
1344
01:34:44.079 --> 01:34:47.640
Because of that, I assume they
should. I mean, I don't ever
1345
01:34:47.840 --> 01:34:51.680
if my God forbid, my wife
and I ever got divorced, first thing
1346
01:34:51.720 --> 01:34:56.279
I told her to do if you
ever remarry, all right, and keep
1347
01:34:56.319 --> 01:34:59.439
everything separate. That's the first thing
you do. You can tell yourself that
1348
01:34:59.560 --> 01:35:01.319
before. What's that you didn't tell
yourself that before you got married the first
1349
01:35:01.319 --> 01:35:05.720
time. I'm just saying he told
her the second time. So I'm just
1350
01:35:06.880 --> 01:35:11.760
hopefully just a second time that third
time. But we are coming up to
1351
01:35:11.840 --> 01:35:14.720
the end of the show. If
you want to get in touch with John,
1352
01:35:15.079 --> 01:35:17.399
talk to him about any estate Planning
does reconsultations. His name is Jonathan
1353
01:35:17.680 --> 01:35:21.600
Sabilia. His firm is Edward Law
Firm. Feel free to call us we
1354
01:35:21.680 --> 01:35:25.199
can get you in contact with them. If you want to do a financial
1355
01:35:25.239 --> 01:35:28.760
plan or risk tolerance, we can
review your risk, which current portfolio is
1356
01:35:28.840 --> 01:35:30.640
or anything like that. Feel free
to call us or get in contact with
1357
01:35:30.800 --> 01:35:34.359
us through our website. At the
end of the day, though, we
1358
01:35:34.399 --> 01:35:38.720
all want to be happy, we
all want to be healthy, and we
1359
01:35:38.800 --> 01:35:43.279
all want to be profitable. Thanks
for talking. We will be back next week.
