Aug. 18, 2024

Market Rebound: Navigating the Political and Economic Shifts

Market Rebound: Navigating the Political and Economic Shifts

In this episode of Money Matters, brought to you by Greenberg Financial Group, we delve into the latest market moves as stocks bounce back from a recent dip. We explore how the current political landscape is shaping our economy, comparing different...

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In this episode of Money Matters, brought to you by Greenberg Financial Group, we delve into the latest market moves as stocks bounce back from a recent dip. We explore how the current political landscape is shaping our economy, comparing different policies and their potential impacts. With recession fears still looming, we analyze where the economy might be headed and what investors should consider in these uncertain times. Tune in for expert insights and strategies to help you stay ahead in today's volatile market.

Transcript
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Good morning everybody. It's that time, Sunday morning, eight o'clock

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right here, seven ninety K and st It's the Money

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Matter Show, and this is Dean Greenberg. Today we will

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be bringing you two hours of information to try to

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help you guide through these markets. They've been very volatile.

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Let's face it, up, down, up again, a nice big

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W padd in that form last week. Obviously he's getting

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closer to the top part of that other W. And

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we we looked back and we said, wow, where were

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we last Monday? What caused all that last Monday? And

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how could it correct this fast? In today's markets, information

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goes so fast. This is what can happen, all right.

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So there was a lot of information this week from

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inflation and retail sales. Inflation with lower than expected PPICPI

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numbers came in lower, retail sales was way above what

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was expected. Walmart was way above their expectations. All these

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things were good. And to face the fact that if

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you want to lower interstrates, you have to have it

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strong an economy that can sustain the fact if we

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h with what's going on, we don't want to go

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ahead and have inflation going up and lower interstrates because

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that will just be more inflationary. But I am concerned though,

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and I'm not going to deny it that if we

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go ahead and keep lower interest rates and stimulate this

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economy from where it is now, well we're going to

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see inflation again. And you know, you hear everything that's

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going on. And I'm going to discuss it a little bit,

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the two economic plans, because this election is all about

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to me the economic plans, because if we're not strong economically,

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I don't care about anything else. It's not going to work.

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You could talk about abortion from the cows come home.

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You can talk about the border, you can talk about healthcare,

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you could talk about wages, you could talk about everything.

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But if the economy isn't healthy, no one is going

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to care about the other stuff. And right now the

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economy is not healthy for individuals on statistically, when you're

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looking at it economically, sure it's looking good, but everything

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is going down and is misleading. This week, though, after

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getting crushed last week, the markets have come back strong.

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The Dow was up three percent, the S and P

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was up four percent, the NASZAK was up over five percent,

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Russell was up over three percent, and the equal weighted RSP,

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which is the equal weighted S and P five hundred

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was up two and a half. But monthly you still

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have to the wrestle to down five percent. You have

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the equal weighted down point five percent. You had the

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NAZAC even and you have the S and P up

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a half a percent and the Dow down almost one percent.

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So that's telling you there's been a rotation of selling

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and then buying. We had opportunities last week, not this week,

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this past week. We had them two weeks ago when

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that market fell off and it was scary and it's

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hard to buy. I get it, but those are the

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times you got to buy it. Those big tech stocks

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don't give you that many opportunities when they drop off

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like that. I mean, the Video was at ninety one.

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Microsoft was under four hundred, Meta was back on the

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four hundred. All I can't remember all of them, just

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go down the road. Tesla was down under two hundred.

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They were all hopping that very very quickly. And then

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because that's where the Bundy wants to run to. But

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it's not a buying opportunity now if you're not in,

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it's hard to buy. If you are in, it's easy

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to hold. But if they keep going higher into the

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beginning of September and you have over I don't know

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whatever you want to have your position, but I certainly

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don't like that more than ten percent. But most positions,

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you know, you start off at three to five. If

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it grows to ten fifteen, you have to pull back

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a little bit. You just do because that one stock

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that made you all the money. You can quickly, as

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you see, give back your portfolio. And then you find

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yourself selling on the downturn rather than the upturn. Now

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I'm not saying you sell everything, not at all, but

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some of these stocks have really run. I see a

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rotation into the smaller companies. I see rotation in the

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mid cap and small cap. I see a rotation in microcap.

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Those will do well if interest rates come down, they

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really will. But those are longer term holds. So you know,

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make sure if you're looking at doing something and building

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a position, your dollar cost average into it. This is

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what we do. This is what we do here at

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Great Greenborough, after doing a financial plan, after putting everything

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together and then managing the money, which is a little

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unique than most firms because they handed off to other people.

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With our experience, which is pretty close over forty years now,

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I feel like it we're pretty good at putting models together,

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understanding on a retail basis that we go ahead and

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mitigate risk. You know, we're acting as a family office

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for individuals that don't have to have tens of millions

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of dollars. We have everything here for them. We give

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them the planning, we do the financial analysis, the tax

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analysis we do we do, we do the estate planning,

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and we manage the money and we know how to

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mitigate risk. We know how to put portfolios together. It's

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very important in this up and down world. So this

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week we had the retail sales came out one percent

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and I started thinking, wow, why is it up so much?

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You know, they talk about climate change, but that no

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one's talked about the shift and educational calendar. So think

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about it. Most of us used to go to school

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to about first or second week of June, and then

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we had the summer off and didn't go back to

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school to have the labor day. Now what ends up

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happening is you're going back to school in the middle

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middle to the beginning of August. In Arizona, we go

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back August first. That means that you're not buying stuff

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in August, you're buying it in July. So the July

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numbers are going to be good. And this has happened

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across the country, so you're going to see a spike

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in there. So that's kind of why I think retail

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sales went up so much. We'll see if it continues.

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I hope it does. With inflation coming down in retail

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sales and the markets, and and and and and and

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and weakening the economy a little bit, you go ahead

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and able to lower interest rates without affecting and spiking inflation.

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We've seen that happening. We've seen the little weaknesses in

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the economy, except the retail sales, which is the one

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that you want to be doing well because that'll keep

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the economy going. But it's so interesting as we go

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through this time period of an election that's a few

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months away. I don't know about you, but I am

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very concerned and always have been when I look at

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who I want to vote for president, is the economic

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plan and what is sustainable and what keeps us from

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having to pay out to everybody in taxes. And that's

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why you know, a long time ago as a Democrat

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and changed over to the Republican side because I believe

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in the Republican way of doing business. The economics of

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everything is what allows us to do everything else. If

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we're a poor nation, if we cannot generate profits for people,

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if we can't go ahead and make money, we're not

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giving money to the people that need it. But some reason,

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the Democrats want a big government. They want to be

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in charge of everything. They think they're the ones that

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can control everything except the free market. What they can

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do is tell you all the great things they did

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bringing drug prices down. And it is good that they

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bring drug prices down, especially on insulin, right. But what

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they're not telling you now that they're putting in there

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that they're capping everybody at two thousand dollars maximum out

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of pocket for drugs. What they're not telling you, and

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you're going to see this in the next three to

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six months, people on Medicare, the drug part D is

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going up three to four times more in premium. All

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insurance companies, healthcare companies are going to raise their premiums

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to pay for this. So, in other words, healthy people

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are going to be paying for non healthy people in

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premiums and those people that need to bring down the

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cost in their drugs, they will have to pay more

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in premiums, except they won't have the money, so their

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premiums will be lower. So again it's a hidden socialist

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way of creating problems for people that are kind of

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in the middle up there because they're going to pay

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more for everything and giving to the others. Again, I'm okay,

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if you don't have it, we give it, but prove

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to us that you cannot work, Prove to us that

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you need this, Prove to us that you are in

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that position, and yes, we as a country will help.

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But the way you have to do that is stop

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giving to people that don't deserve, Like everyone coming across

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the border. We have not heard one thing about what

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the Left is going to do with the people coming

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across the border other than they want to give them

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driver's licenses. Why they give them driver's license so they

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have a picture ID so they can go vote. I

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don't want illegal immigrants having drivers' licenses because you know

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they're not going to be able to pay for the insurance.

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Most of them that don't have jobs that get a

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license are driving illegally. A lot of them are driving illegally. Now,

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how many people do you know have gotten into problems

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with uninsured motorists. So premiums are going up. It's going

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to be harder for people to pay for that. Nobody

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looks at the consequences of the headlines of our politicians.

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They just don't. They sound good, okay, but they're not good,

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especially the ones on the left. Everything on the left,

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everything when it comes to economics, sounds good, and it's

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about government control. Bigger government. More government won't pay people

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in the government will increase, the irs will increase, this

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will increase that. What they won't increase is border safety.

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That's the problem. So Kamala Harris the other day comes

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out and unveils a plan, even though she doesn't talk

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about it. Her big thing is price controls. Price controls,

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obviously we know the one with drugs limit every one

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to two thousand now sounds good premium, So go through

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the roof food companies. She actually says she is going

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to go ahead and make sure that she knows how

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to go ahead and make sure companies aren't going to

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gouge people, and she's gonna bring down prices on food companies,

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we're gonna have more competition that brings down prices. Competition,

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does I get that. But if you're going ahead and

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controlling pricesmaller companies obviously are gonna be out of business

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if you can controlling their prices versus the big company,

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if the course of volume. This is all common sense.

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So you're not going to have small companies if you

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are going ahead and controlling prices. And who are you

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to control the prices? As you know that most of

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us know, on the average a grocery stores profit margin

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is one point six percent. Average margin that they make

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is one point six percent. That means on every hundred

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dollars to make it a dollar sixty, every one hundred

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dollars they make a dollar sixty, that's what one point

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six percent margin is. So think about when food goes bad.

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Think about when somebody goes ahead and opens up a

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bag of chips and eating it around the store and

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then stuffs it away. It doesn't pay for it. Think

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about all the theft that goes on in today's world

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that they don't want to prosecute people. If it's under

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one thousand dollars, it's incredible, but she's not talking about

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the tech companies yet because you know their profit margins

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are what twenty twenty five thirty percent. But they are

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talking about raising corporate taxes. Well, if you raise corporate taxes,

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what's gonna happen? People are gonna go find safe havens.

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And then who's gonna pay for it? The consumer? Everything

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they talked about is going to go ahead and cost

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us more money. When you talk about raising minimum wage,

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Look what's happened by raising minimum wage. We put a

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lot of people out of the low level job, low

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entry level jobs. Fast food places are becoming obsolete of

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employment for the most part. You got chiosits everywhere. So

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people that need jobs the lower spectrum can't find jobs.

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So you might raise the raise the minimum wage. But

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if they can't find a job because they've been taken

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over by robots, computers, kiosks, what good is it? And

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if you raise minimum wage, enforcing that on, that means

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that five dollars meal and McDonald's goes to ten dollars.

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You don't ever not pass on your cost because if

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you don't, you're gonna be out of business. You're gonna

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show worse earnings. So how they think that we can

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keep an economy going because I know they don't really

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look at the stock market because they think that's just

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for rich people, which it's not, because that's the way

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most people, if you're working and you have a four

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to one K plan, are going to retire, okay, is

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by the growth of your pension plan or your four

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oh one K plan. That's how you're going to retire.

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And there's not enough education telling people to put money

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away because they can't afford to put money away and live.

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But somehow their whole message is we're going to do

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better going forward. Prices are too high going forward, and somehow,

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some way they blame this whole thing on Trump. They

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talk about how they've increased jobs, They talk about how

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they've done brought down inflation and everything else. What they

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don't talk about is how we were in a pandemic.

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Of course, it's easy to get millions of jobs because

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millions of people were out of work. What they don't

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talk about is how bad their policies were to keep

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inflation down. They could have done stuff to leave inflation down.

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Number one drill, I know we've producing more oil than

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we we could have produced more. We could have kept

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it here. We could have been the one sending it

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out and exporting and keep prices. Energy prices down. They

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went over one hundred dollars. They could have kept the

254
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prices down. That was one way of doing it. Forcing

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everybody with regulations into to electric cars and doing this

256
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and doing that could have kept prices down. You don't

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think these motor companies that have lost billions of dollars

258
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are gonna figure out a way to get it back.

259
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Car prices are up. Use car prices are up. Food

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is up. Everything is up. Don't believe them when they

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tell you they are gonna bring prices down. They tell

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you they are just because you saw inflation at two

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point five and is going lower. You go to the store,

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how much are you saving a dollar? Maybe? I don't

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even know if you're saving it. You don't feel it.

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Gas hasn't come down. Don't believe it, and don't believe

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that their policies are gonna work. But they both sides,

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though exaggerate, both sides mislead. I was listening to Harris

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the other day and she was talking about how Trump

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was gonna put it in a national sales tax. Well,

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first of all, I'd rather see a national sales tax

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with a low federal tax. How about that. How about

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you go ahead and do a national sales tax, and

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then that's a consumption tax, and that means everything you buy,

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you're paying you want. That's equal share. So somebody wants

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to buy a yacht for ten million dollars, you're gonna

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pay a heck of a lot of sales charge. But

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if you're gonna have to go ahead and uh don't

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have that type money, and you buy something one hundred dollars,

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you're gonna have a sales change just like everybody else,

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but you won't have any federal taxes, you won't have

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any state taxes. So it's how you consume what you

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want to do. So now you want to be able

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to do it. Stop asking the government to do everything

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for you. I don't understand how people think that's okay.

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How are we gonna pay for things? They want to

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go ahead, okay, and and go. If you have medical debt,

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they want it not to affect you your credit anything.

289
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So why should people buy insurance? If you're healthy, don't

290
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buy insurance. If something happens to you, just don't pay

291
00:17:59.880 --> 00:18:05.960
you bills. Just like school they always come up with great,

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great ideas with no solutions. If you're going to go

293
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ahead and pay down school debt, now what about the

294
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next four years? What about the next ten years? You

295
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think schools are getting cheaper, they're not. What plan do

296
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you have to keep it away? Or you're gonna just

297
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keep telling people they don't have to pay the school debt.

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And if you're not gonna do that, why is it

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fair for this four years that you're in as president

300
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people don't pay school debt, but in ten years from

301
00:18:31.799 --> 00:18:35.039
now they have to pay the school debt. Why is

302
00:18:35.079 --> 00:18:37.559
it fair for people that have got had to go bankrupt,

303
00:18:37.640 --> 00:18:39.839
that can't pay for their medical bills, and you're gonna

304
00:18:39.839 --> 00:18:42.599
sell going forward, They're not gonna have to be able

305
00:18:42.640 --> 00:18:46.960
to pay it and it won't affect them. People will

306
00:18:46.960 --> 00:18:50.480
take advantage at every turn you do. And I understand

307
00:18:50.480 --> 00:18:52.519
you're trying to say, I'm helping the poor people. The

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poor people have access, they have free health care. They

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if they work, they have health care. If they don't work,

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they have health care. All you're doing is costing everybody

311
00:19:03.440 --> 00:19:08.039
else that's working hard, that's that middle class. You're destroying it.

312
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Absolutely destroying it. You talk about giving first homeowners twenty

313
00:19:14.880 --> 00:19:19.720
five thousand dollars towards their home. Why are you coming

314
00:19:19.799 --> 00:19:22.960
up with that now? For the last three years most

315
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people could afford homes. And then what are you gonna

316
00:19:26.079 --> 00:19:31.119
do after that? Interstates are too high? Twenty five thousand dollars?

317
00:19:31.160 --> 00:19:34.759
Is there? Houses have gone up more than twenty five thousand,

318
00:19:34.799 --> 00:19:37.279
They've gone up one hundred hundred and fifty thousand. Of course,

319
00:19:37.319 --> 00:19:42.000
twenty five thousand helps, but it's not gonna cure. And again,

320
00:19:42.440 --> 00:19:44.440
what about the people that bought a house last year?

321
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This year they do they get help? And again you

322
00:19:50.480 --> 00:19:54.519
can't help everybody. But don't go ahead and keep giving

323
00:19:54.720 --> 00:19:59.640
away everything everything that continue to talk about a new

324
00:19:59.680 --> 00:20:04.279
way forward, a new way forward. Why do you need

325
00:20:04.319 --> 00:20:06.880
a new way forward? If, on the other hand, you're

326
00:20:06.880 --> 00:20:10.759
telling me how great the Biden Harris administration did on

327
00:20:10.799 --> 00:20:15.839
the economy? What new way forward? Keeping them closing the

328
00:20:15.880 --> 00:20:17.559
borders that you said you're going to do but you

329
00:20:17.640 --> 00:20:21.279
never did. Is that the new way forward? Open the

330
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borders more? Okay, you talked about Medicare for all. All

331
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you talk about is well, he wants to get rid

332
00:20:27.720 --> 00:20:30.759
of the affordable care Act. No, he wants to make healthcare.

333
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Trump wants to make health care good for everybody. Everybody.

334
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Bring down course, competition brings down course. You know how

335
00:20:39.480 --> 00:20:42.279
you bring down competition in health care? Allow them to

336
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go ahead and go cross state lines. Let them go

337
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cross state lines. Increase competition, and your price comes down.

338
00:20:52.839 --> 00:20:55.319
Why were there so many companies that said, I'm not

339
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going to go ahead and ensure affordable health care because

340
00:20:59.519 --> 00:21:02.079
it was good? Want to run amount of business? We

341
00:21:02.160 --> 00:21:05.960
are capitalists, We are not socialists. And this group wants

342
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to be socialists. In sheep clothing period, they say prices

343
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are too high. Yes, they are too high, but why

344
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are they too high? What in three and a half

345
00:21:18.359 --> 00:21:21.000
years have you been able to do to bring prices down?

346
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Trump comes up with the idea, hey, and he has

347
00:21:26.079 --> 00:21:27.799
a story behind it too. On how he came up

348
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with the idea no taxes on tips all of a

349
00:21:31.839 --> 00:21:34.440
sudden out of nowhere last week. What do we hear

350
00:21:35.319 --> 00:21:38.640
now a biden An administration and Harris want to do

351
00:21:38.799 --> 00:21:44.240
no taxes on tips? How are American people that blind

352
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to not understanding that the economy only runs through the

353
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Trump administration type people? They understand they're business people. They

354
00:21:54.720 --> 00:21:59.720
have not been career politicians. He brings in the cabinet

355
00:22:00.160 --> 00:22:04.160
people that understand business, not putting in D E de

356
00:22:04.319 --> 00:22:09.559
EI and and and esp and everything else that they want. Okay,

357
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you hire the most credible people for the jobs. Whether

358
00:22:16.599 --> 00:22:21.319
the male, female, what what race they are doesn't matter.

359
00:22:22.519 --> 00:22:25.480
What matters is who is put in the effort, the

360
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time and and and has the ability to be smart

361
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to help America. Don't get it. I want things affordable.

362
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I want prices where we are. Don't talk to me

363
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about tariffs as being a national sales tax when you've

364
00:22:44.200 --> 00:22:47.319
kept your tariffs on that Trump did before. What I

365
00:22:47.400 --> 00:22:53.720
can't stand is how they both sides well exploit and

366
00:22:53.799 --> 00:22:57.279
mislead what the others are trying to do. I just

367
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can't stand it. I just wish the election was already

368
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done and over with, and all I need to do

369
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is figure out who's in and how am I gonna

370
00:23:04.920 --> 00:23:06.960
make money doing it? Because you know what, they don't

371
00:23:06.960 --> 00:23:09.640
care about you, They don't care about me. I care

372
00:23:09.680 --> 00:23:11.680
about you, and I care about how I'm gonna make

373
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money for you. And there is gonna be a distinct

374
00:23:14.119 --> 00:23:17.119
difference right now on how this economy is gonna work out.

375
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Whether it's Trump or or Harris, it's gonna be different.

376
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And one's gonna have a lot of regulations. One's gonna

377
00:23:23.440 --> 00:23:26.079
get rid of regulations. One's gonna shut the border, the

378
00:23:26.119 --> 00:23:30.359
other's gonna have open board policies. One's gonna have an

379
00:23:30.400 --> 00:23:32.960
idea on how to run an economy, the others not.

380
00:23:33.599 --> 00:23:36.000
And they're just gonna blame everybody else. That's the way

381
00:23:36.000 --> 00:23:41.160
it's gonna be. One's gonna understand how we get insurance

382
00:23:41.200 --> 00:23:45.519
companies and and and and medical companies and and drug

383
00:23:45.559 --> 00:23:49.440
companies all on board to work together because they sit

384
00:23:49.519 --> 00:23:52.720
down and talk about it. That's good for everyone to compromise.

385
00:23:52.960 --> 00:23:57.319
The other's gonna make mandates. We see them. They're gonna

386
00:23:57.519 --> 00:24:01.319
demand prices come down. I'm gonna go after people with

387
00:24:01.519 --> 00:24:05.160
price gal who's price gouging in food when it costs

388
00:24:05.200 --> 00:24:12.079
up much. It's a real simple, understandable thing. Go ahead

389
00:24:12.160 --> 00:24:15.519
and look at economics on both sides. Don't believe the

390
00:24:15.599 --> 00:24:19.000
bull actually things. Will see what it does and then

391
00:24:19.079 --> 00:24:21.480
make a decision on who to vote for, because our

392
00:24:21.519 --> 00:24:24.920
economy is at what's at stake. Thank you for listening,

393
00:24:25.160 --> 00:24:27.359
and thank you for being part of our show. We'll

394
00:24:27.359 --> 00:24:28.119
be right back.

395
00:24:29.039 --> 00:24:31.480
Good morning, Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. This

396
00:24:31.599 --> 00:24:35.200
is Dave Sherwood. I'm here with Sebastian Barsini, Dean Greenberg,

397
00:24:35.279 --> 00:24:39.240
Dylan Greenberg, and Todd Glick Junior. Hi, guys, Hey, how

398
00:24:39.240 --> 00:24:39.720
are we going.

399
00:24:40.119 --> 00:24:42.680
That's a good week in the markets.

400
00:24:42.039 --> 00:24:46.720
Unbelievable higher every single day. Uh. This week at S ANDPN,

401
00:24:46.799 --> 00:24:48.119
the NASDAK, we'll.

402
00:24:47.960 --> 00:24:50.079
Run down the numbers here. We have the dal Jones

403
00:24:50.160 --> 00:24:52.559
up two point nine percent on the week, the S

404
00:24:52.559 --> 00:24:55.440
and P five hundred was up three point nine, NASDAK

405
00:24:55.519 --> 00:24:57.799
up five point three led the way this week.

406
00:24:57.839 --> 00:24:59.039
The Russell two.

407
00:24:58.799 --> 00:25:01.640
Thousand small caps we're up three percent on the week,

408
00:25:01.720 --> 00:25:04.279
and the equated S and P was up two and

409
00:25:04.359 --> 00:25:07.240
a half percent. So overall everything was up. But we

410
00:25:07.319 --> 00:25:11.279
obviously see that the major seven we're getting the majority

411
00:25:11.279 --> 00:25:13.759
of the bids and the n video back to like

412
00:25:13.880 --> 00:25:14.799
nothing ever happened.

413
00:25:14.960 --> 00:25:16.880
You know what that performance was on the week, But

414
00:25:17.160 --> 00:25:17.960
nineteen percent?

415
00:25:18.759 --> 00:25:21.720
What in video for the week? Nineteen percent? It was

416
00:25:21.720 --> 00:25:24.640
one hundred and forty then it dropped to ninety two

417
00:25:24.759 --> 00:25:30.160
or ninety three a week ago Monday, August fifth, and

418
00:25:30.880 --> 00:25:32.960
it's coming right back now. It closed it what won

419
00:25:33.680 --> 00:25:35.279
eighteen one nineteen on Friday?

420
00:25:35.559 --> 00:25:37.400
Yeah, I was up nineteen percent one week.

421
00:25:37.599 --> 00:25:40.160
Amazing. That's just absolutely amazing. You know. The I think

422
00:25:40.200 --> 00:25:42.759
the biggest headline from this past week, at least for me,

423
00:25:43.400 --> 00:25:45.319
and this is this kind of gives you an idea

424
00:25:45.319 --> 00:25:49.759
of the upside down world we live in. Turns out

425
00:25:49.799 --> 00:25:52.960
that Donald Trump's number one supporter is the guy making

426
00:25:53.000 --> 00:26:00.000
all the electory vehicles. Wow, somehow that shouldn't be right.

427
00:26:00.160 --> 00:26:02.359
Yeah, I mean obviously with the ev mandate, you would

428
00:26:02.359 --> 00:26:05.359
think that Elon would be a little more to that side.

429
00:26:05.400 --> 00:26:09.079
But yeah, on that, I mean, it broke records the

430
00:26:09.079 --> 00:26:11.839
amount of people that tuned into that thing. And it

431
00:26:11.920 --> 00:26:15.559
was a conversation between Elon and Trump on the platform

432
00:26:15.799 --> 00:26:19.119
X and Blue, CNN Out of the Water and all

433
00:26:19.160 --> 00:26:21.599
the type of Foxes and all those type of shows.

434
00:26:21.319 --> 00:26:24.759
And it was amazing. I mean, ninety million people I

435
00:26:24.759 --> 00:26:27.359
think overall at some point not not to listen to

436
00:26:27.400 --> 00:26:29.559
the whole thing, but the tuned in at one point

437
00:26:29.680 --> 00:26:30.079
or another.

438
00:26:30.480 --> 00:26:31.640
I was just gonna say, we were talking to some

439
00:26:31.720 --> 00:26:34.319
of the iHeartRadio guys and they said it was just

440
00:26:34.359 --> 00:26:37.559
insane the numbers that X got ninety million like.

441
00:26:37.519 --> 00:26:43.279
You just said ninety million people that had X. I mean,

442
00:26:43.799 --> 00:26:47.200
I don't think the majority of people my age have X.

443
00:26:48.599 --> 00:26:52.000
No formerly Twitter. Yeah, but like all.

444
00:26:51.880 --> 00:26:54.359
Social media platforms, what you see is that you'll have

445
00:26:54.519 --> 00:26:57.759
a good eighty percent of the accounts not real people.

446
00:26:58.359 --> 00:27:01.640
Most of the activity post that you see on social media,

447
00:27:01.720 --> 00:27:04.759
it's it's met it's posted by bots and things like that.

448
00:27:05.000 --> 00:27:07.720
I love that term. Explain that term bots.

449
00:27:08.279 --> 00:27:12.880
Bots are accounts that are based on a real person,

450
00:27:13.079 --> 00:27:16.720
but not the actual person, And then you are able

451
00:27:17.079 --> 00:27:21.720
through pretty much propaganda, suade people, get people in arguments.

452
00:27:22.880 --> 00:27:25.359
You might not even believe what the account's saying. It's

453
00:27:25.440 --> 00:27:27.759
just really designed to get people mad.

454
00:27:28.039 --> 00:27:31.240
And it is kind of a cool, clever, short version

455
00:27:31.240 --> 00:27:34.200
of robot. Yes, so it's kind of I kind of

456
00:27:34.240 --> 00:27:34.440
like that.

457
00:27:34.559 --> 00:27:35.799
It's kind of like if you ever heard of a

458
00:27:35.839 --> 00:27:40.839
burner account. A burner account, don't want someone to know

459
00:27:40.880 --> 00:27:43.799
that it's you when you're using it. Same same IDEA

460
00:27:44.319 --> 00:27:44.799
good point.

461
00:27:45.000 --> 00:27:47.359
First positive week for the market since mid July. We

462
00:27:47.400 --> 00:27:52.519
had four consecutive weeks lower before we got to this

463
00:27:52.599 --> 00:27:55.559
week with and and so why if you go back

464
00:27:55.599 --> 00:27:58.640
to early August, the first two trading days of August

465
00:27:58.680 --> 00:28:01.680
were a Thursday and a Friday and big sell off.

466
00:28:01.680 --> 00:28:04.440
About three percent declined in that two day period over

467
00:28:04.519 --> 00:28:05.839
concerns about recession.

468
00:28:06.119 --> 00:28:09.599
And what signaled that was the unemployment numbers that came out, right.

469
00:28:09.480 --> 00:28:12.400
Yeah, And then we came in the following Monday, which

470
00:28:12.440 --> 00:28:15.799
would have been the fifth and of course that had

471
00:28:15.880 --> 00:28:19.519
the Japan carry trade situation in markets down a thousand points,

472
00:28:19.559 --> 00:28:25.200
and all this recession fears again didn't help. And then

473
00:28:25.400 --> 00:28:28.799
what we had this week was a lot of indications

474
00:28:28.839 --> 00:28:32.319
that the recession we know of recession is coming at

475
00:28:32.319 --> 00:28:35.000
some point, that's just part of the economic cycle, but

476
00:28:35.200 --> 00:28:38.799
it appears to have been delayed. The numbers we saw

477
00:28:38.920 --> 00:28:42.680
were good. We had good inflation numbers, we had extremely

478
00:28:42.720 --> 00:28:46.839
strong retail sales, we had Walmart blowout numbers of Walmart,

479
00:28:46.960 --> 00:28:50.359
and positive guidance, and boy, things are doing looking good here,

480
00:28:51.039 --> 00:28:53.440
and it's like, well, gosh, maybe there isn't going to

481
00:28:53.480 --> 00:28:54.240
be a recession.

482
00:28:54.839 --> 00:28:57.400
Much of that sell off that we saw even on

483
00:28:57.440 --> 00:29:00.440
the Friday, that's the day that Japan raised their rates,

484
00:29:00.920 --> 00:29:02.039
so that what's set.

485
00:29:01.799 --> 00:29:03.960
Off that I started it, you're saying, and.

486
00:29:03.839 --> 00:29:06.640
Then obviously bled into Monday, which was the biggest loss

487
00:29:06.680 --> 00:29:08.640
of the year. Now we're on this week, which is

488
00:29:08.640 --> 00:29:09.640
the biggest week of the year.

489
00:29:10.000 --> 00:29:12.799
It's kind of interesting seeing change. Yeah, CNBC did a

490
00:29:12.839 --> 00:29:17.960
survey that and last week sixty percent of Americans believe

491
00:29:18.039 --> 00:29:20.880
we are in a recession. That shows you how tough

492
00:29:20.920 --> 00:29:21.559
it is out there.

493
00:29:21.599 --> 00:29:24.440
Well, you mentioned Walmart having some pretty good blowout earnings

494
00:29:24.519 --> 00:29:26.920
right when I was just thinking about Kroger. Kroger did

495
00:29:26.920 --> 00:29:29.319
not have blowout earnings. So maybe people are looking to

496
00:29:29.400 --> 00:29:33.680
those discount stores because of that recession. Their pockets are hurting, right.

497
00:29:34.119 --> 00:29:36.480
I think the other thing that would I agree with you,

498
00:29:36.519 --> 00:29:38.079
and I think the other thing that would kind of

499
00:29:38.200 --> 00:29:41.839
dovetail with that was the refinance, the mortgage refinancing. Now,

500
00:29:42.039 --> 00:29:46.039
mortgage interest rates are not that great right now, historically speaking,

501
00:29:46.079 --> 00:29:50.480
they're they're probably average, but they're not great. And the

502
00:29:50.559 --> 00:29:54.400
refinancing is just really aggressive fifty nine percent increase of

503
00:29:54.400 --> 00:29:57.319
a week over a week, one hundred and eighteen percent

504
00:29:57.519 --> 00:30:01.720
more than the same period last year. And our friend

505
00:30:01.799 --> 00:30:04.799
Dave Hann, who owned All American Lending, did predict this.

506
00:30:04.960 --> 00:30:06.720
He said, what's going to happen, and these credit card

507
00:30:06.720 --> 00:30:08.799
bills are going to get high enough that people are

508
00:30:08.839 --> 00:30:10.480
just going to be forced to refinance. I think it's

509
00:30:10.519 --> 00:30:11.400
what's happening.

510
00:30:11.119 --> 00:30:13.599
Which shows how severe the situation about the credit card

511
00:30:13.599 --> 00:30:16.519
that is. Because if you have everybody jumping into this

512
00:30:16.720 --> 00:30:20.160
refinance world, when you still have all this downward pressure

513
00:30:20.160 --> 00:30:22.720
on interest rates, like how bad had had you have

514
00:30:22.759 --> 00:30:25.200
had to have been hurting in order to refinance like

515
00:30:25.240 --> 00:30:27.240
that a snap of a finger right at a drop

516
00:30:27.279 --> 00:30:27.519
of a.

517
00:30:27.519 --> 00:30:30.440
Rate, and to refinance now when rates are I think Todd,

518
00:30:30.480 --> 00:30:33.039
you watched them closer. Now they probably got to what

519
00:30:33.160 --> 00:30:34.079
low Sabins.

520
00:30:34.440 --> 00:30:36.799
No, the mortgage rates got to six point four to

521
00:30:36.839 --> 00:30:37.519
three percent, that.

522
00:30:37.559 --> 00:30:40.640
Was the big No, I'm talking about the highest, the highest, Yeah,

523
00:30:41.160 --> 00:30:44.559
low Sabins. And now they're down to six point four.

524
00:30:44.400 --> 00:30:46.240
Six point four to nine that's what they got down

525
00:30:46.279 --> 00:30:47.799
to them. Well I got down at six point four three.

526
00:30:47.799 --> 00:30:50.000
It's up this week a little bit. But yeah, I mean,

527
00:30:50.279 --> 00:30:54.440
like you said, the refinancing I think had to eventually happen.

528
00:30:54.519 --> 00:30:57.799
But as we've always said, year over year, one hundred

529
00:30:57.799 --> 00:31:00.680
and thirty percent increase, last year is probably the worst

530
00:31:00.759 --> 00:31:03.799
year for refinancing ever, right, no one was doing it,

531
00:31:03.920 --> 00:31:06.880
So you know, how much is that number really showing?

532
00:31:07.319 --> 00:31:09.640
Certainly it's more right now, I'm not saying that, but

533
00:31:09.799 --> 00:31:13.359
compared to like a twenty one, it's significantly still down

534
00:31:13.440 --> 00:31:15.480
and people aren't it's the ones that are really really

535
00:31:15.559 --> 00:31:18.680
hurting that are having to tap that. I don't know

536
00:31:18.680 --> 00:31:19.960
if that increases.

537
00:31:20.240 --> 00:31:22.799
Significant you're saying. It's kind of like when we compare

538
00:31:22.839 --> 00:31:25.599
the electric vehicle sales. It is a starting from a

539
00:31:25.599 --> 00:31:27.920
small base, right, you know, so if you go from

540
00:31:27.960 --> 00:31:29.759
two to four is one hundred percent, right.

541
00:31:29.599 --> 00:31:31.759
It's a little easier to hit that growth number.

542
00:31:31.799 --> 00:31:34.599
There were eight people refinanced this year and four people

543
00:31:34.640 --> 00:31:36.519
refinanced last year. That's one hundred percent increase.

544
00:31:36.799 --> 00:31:39.519
But I mean, I have had people tell me that

545
00:31:39.599 --> 00:31:44.319
appraisals are not coming in to market values, and that's

546
00:31:44.359 --> 00:31:48.799
obviously really potentially a bad thing. Which was interesting to

547
00:31:48.839 --> 00:31:50.880
me because it still seems that we have the same

548
00:31:50.880 --> 00:31:55.839
supply demand construct in the housing industry. Not much supply,

549
00:31:56.440 --> 00:31:58.680
still got plenty of people that need houses, right, So

550
00:31:59.039 --> 00:32:02.640
doesn't seem like you a big housing price drop anywhere.

551
00:32:02.720 --> 00:32:05.440
Really, I don't know about a big drop, and I

552
00:32:05.480 --> 00:32:07.720
agree with that, But I'll tell you one thing I

553
00:32:07.759 --> 00:32:10.200
have noticed is there are a lot more for sale

554
00:32:10.200 --> 00:32:13.359
signs in their stand up for a lot longer. I've

555
00:32:13.400 --> 00:32:16.640
got a client that is having to move out of

556
00:32:16.640 --> 00:32:20.279
her home for financial reasons, and she said, I think

557
00:32:20.319 --> 00:32:21.839
we're going to have a bidding more. This is going

558
00:32:21.920 --> 00:32:24.240
to be really incredible. This house is so special and

559
00:32:24.319 --> 00:32:27.039
such a special location. Blah blah blah. You know a

560
00:32:27.119 --> 00:32:29.440
lot of people really love their house. She's lived their

561
00:32:29.440 --> 00:32:32.279
twenty years now, she loves it there. Put the house

562
00:32:32.319 --> 00:32:34.039
on the market at five eighty and then I went

563
00:32:34.039 --> 00:32:36.559
to five sixteen and five forty. Now it's five twenty

564
00:32:37.160 --> 00:32:39.359
and it's been on the market for about two months

565
00:32:39.599 --> 00:32:42.519
and there's no bidding more. They haven't had an offer.

566
00:32:43.880 --> 00:32:47.680
I'm seeing for sale signs in my hood. I live

567
00:32:47.720 --> 00:32:51.440
in the Fort Lowe area. Two months, two and a half,

568
00:32:51.480 --> 00:32:54.680
three months they've been there. So I think that ultimately

569
00:32:54.759 --> 00:32:59.200
helps CPI. The consumer price in deck. We did see

570
00:32:59.200 --> 00:33:02.400
a real good news on the Consumer Price Index this

571
00:33:02.440 --> 00:33:05.680
past week two point nine percent year over year, which

572
00:33:05.720 --> 00:33:09.240
is the lowest increase in inflation since March of twenty one.

573
00:33:09.759 --> 00:33:12.400
Rents fell for the first time since like twenty two.

574
00:33:12.640 --> 00:33:14.160
Yeah, and I think we're going to start to see

575
00:33:14.200 --> 00:33:18.480
some help in that area. The shelter has been the stickiest,

576
00:33:18.920 --> 00:33:21.559
but you know, you need some inflation. Two point nine

577
00:33:21.599 --> 00:33:23.240
is probably a bit higher than the Fed would like

578
00:33:23.279 --> 00:33:24.599
to see it in year over years.

579
00:33:24.599 --> 00:33:28.480
There's practically no inflation in oil at this point for

580
00:33:28.599 --> 00:33:31.559
that side of the inflation report, right, I mean we've

581
00:33:31.599 --> 00:33:33.480
been at seventy five last year at this time too,

582
00:33:33.559 --> 00:33:36.559
So no, absolutely, there's not much there. It's really housing

583
00:33:36.599 --> 00:33:38.960
that's been, like you said, the stickiest part, and that

584
00:33:39.119 --> 00:33:42.160
takes a while to you know, filter through, and we've

585
00:33:42.240 --> 00:33:44.599
kind of starting to see that. So it does seem

586
00:33:44.599 --> 00:33:46.839
like inflation's going to where it needs to be and

587
00:33:46.920 --> 00:33:50.319
the economy isn't really in dire straits. What we saw

588
00:33:50.440 --> 00:33:53.079
on that Friday of that huge sell off and then

589
00:33:53.160 --> 00:33:56.119
Monday the even bigger sell off, we had the manufacturing

590
00:33:56.160 --> 00:33:59.279
PMI report come out that was really bad and everyone was,

591
00:33:59.400 --> 00:34:01.119
you know, looking for a reason to sell. They use

592
00:34:01.160 --> 00:34:03.559
that as a reason. And then on Monday we got

593
00:34:03.599 --> 00:34:06.880
the services PMI which was really strong. Again, we are

594
00:34:06.920 --> 00:34:11.599
a services economy, we were not a manufacturing Everybody forgot well,

595
00:34:12.639 --> 00:34:14.719
like like Dave said, they were looking for a reason

596
00:34:14.719 --> 00:34:16.519
to sell. I mean, I think it's like something like

597
00:34:16.559 --> 00:34:18.880
seventy percent of our economy services.

598
00:34:18.519 --> 00:34:21.440
But PMI is Purchasing Managers index is kind of a

599
00:34:21.440 --> 00:34:24.280
prediction of where things are going. A number of below

600
00:34:24.440 --> 00:34:28.559
fifty shows that that area is in a slowdown or

601
00:34:28.559 --> 00:34:31.599
in a receession, if you will, and manufacturing has been

602
00:34:31.599 --> 00:34:32.800
there for three or four months.

603
00:34:32.960 --> 00:34:35.079
And I think it's one of the coolest reports because

604
00:34:35.079 --> 00:34:37.400
it's a survey, right, they're giving it two business owners

605
00:34:37.440 --> 00:34:40.039
and they're asking the very specific questions, where do you think,

606
00:34:40.199 --> 00:34:41.800
what do you think about employment or the next twelveyere

607
00:34:41.800 --> 00:34:44.239
you're going to hire or not? Are you what do

608
00:34:44.239 --> 00:34:45.960
you think about the economy, what do you think about

609
00:34:45.960 --> 00:34:48.440
your inventory levels? Like they're very specific questions. So when

610
00:34:48.480 --> 00:34:51.000
you're sometimes you hear people like I'm talking to a

611
00:34:51.039 --> 00:34:53.280
lot of business owners and then they create their own

612
00:34:53.360 --> 00:34:58.679
subjective India, you know, and it's you should use kind

613
00:34:58.719 --> 00:35:01.519
of one that's taking every region into account, not just

614
00:35:01.559 --> 00:35:04.679
one region. Obviously, you can sometimes get different results if

615
00:35:04.679 --> 00:35:07.559
you're just focusing on one state versus the entire nation.

616
00:35:08.000 --> 00:35:09.960
And I think that's why this PMI gives us a

617
00:35:09.960 --> 00:35:13.159
good insight of what do business owners think it's going

618
00:35:13.199 --> 00:35:13.599
to happen.

619
00:35:13.920 --> 00:35:16.480
Yeah, it's actually the people that are on the ground

620
00:35:16.480 --> 00:35:19.519
in the trenches doing the business that are answering the survey.

621
00:35:19.599 --> 00:35:22.559
So it's a it's a pretty darn good feel for

622
00:35:22.719 --> 00:35:25.360
what's really going on. And like I said, we've been

623
00:35:25.679 --> 00:35:30.320
seeing the manufacturing sector in recession, technically in recession for

624
00:35:30.760 --> 00:35:32.719
I don't know that four or five months at least,

625
00:35:33.199 --> 00:35:35.920
and the services sector, which is far more important because

626
00:35:35.960 --> 00:35:38.960
we are a service economy, continues to do well. It's

627
00:35:38.960 --> 00:35:42.719
about fifty stones markets, markets moving back towards all time highs.

628
00:35:43.000 --> 00:35:45.639
And we'll be back with the next segment, the third

629
00:35:45.679 --> 00:35:48.559
segment of the Money Matter Show, right after this break.

630
00:35:48.559 --> 00:35:51.199
Thanks again for taking time to join us. We appreciate it.

631
00:35:52.360 --> 00:35:54.360
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is

632
00:35:54.400 --> 00:35:58.000
toddlik I'm here with Dylan Greenberg, Dean Greenberg, Sebastian Borssini,

633
00:35:58.239 --> 00:36:00.960
and David Sherwood. Like we said off the break, was

634
00:36:00.960 --> 00:36:03.559
a really good week for stocks. They bounced back on

635
00:36:03.800 --> 00:36:08.000
what was really lowering expectations of a potential recession fear.

636
00:36:08.719 --> 00:36:11.760
One of the weird scenarios that you don't see often

637
00:36:11.880 --> 00:36:14.519
is where interest rates increased throughout the week and then

638
00:36:14.559 --> 00:36:17.039
the S and P and NASDAK hit their best week

639
00:36:17.079 --> 00:36:20.039
of the year. Yes, right, that doesn't normally happen. It

640
00:36:20.079 --> 00:36:22.559
happened this time because of the narrative switch. We've been

641
00:36:22.559 --> 00:36:24.960
talking about that over the last two weeks. How we've

642
00:36:25.000 --> 00:36:27.239
loved interest rates going lower because it meant that Ray

643
00:36:27.239 --> 00:36:29.320
cuts on the horizon. But now we kind of know

644
00:36:29.400 --> 00:36:32.239
it's going to happen in September. Now we're worried about it.

645
00:36:32.639 --> 00:36:34.639
The economic reports not being good enough.

646
00:36:36.519 --> 00:36:38.159
Right, It's so funny, like a week ago it was

647
00:36:38.719 --> 00:36:43.599
fifty of a fifty basis point cut was a given, Yeah, right,

648
00:36:43.880 --> 00:36:45.440
now not so fast.

649
00:36:45.480 --> 00:36:47.920
Yeah, Now it's like maybe a seventy five percent chance.

650
00:36:48.440 --> 00:36:49.039
And then the O.

651
00:36:49.559 --> 00:36:53.599
So it was huge swings in the markets expectations of

652
00:36:53.599 --> 00:36:55.639
what the Fed is going to do. And I saw

653
00:36:55.679 --> 00:36:59.199
an interesting meeting. We're headlined today about a meeting between

654
00:36:59.199 --> 00:37:02.679
the FED and big officials talking about how they're gonna

655
00:37:03.480 --> 00:37:08.480
worry about how the hares biden capital price control or

656
00:37:08.559 --> 00:37:11.199
capital I can't I didn't quite understood what they were

657
00:37:11.199 --> 00:37:13.480
talking about, but they were worried about what the Hair's

658
00:37:13.639 --> 00:37:16.519
kind of economy would look right and potentially how to

659
00:37:17.360 --> 00:37:19.360
protect the economy. I thought that was really interesting.

660
00:37:20.159 --> 00:37:23.599
I think they realized I FED discovered it in two

661
00:37:23.599 --> 00:37:26.239
thousand and eight, just how significant and how fragile the

662
00:37:26.280 --> 00:37:30.599
banking system is and how critical it is to our economy.

663
00:37:30.679 --> 00:37:33.719
We do have. Probably the biggest news item next week

664
00:37:33.840 --> 00:37:37.800
is on Friday, Jerome Paul speaks at the Jackson Whole summits.

665
00:37:38.079 --> 00:37:41.760
And I don't know that he'll give us anything of substance.

666
00:37:41.840 --> 00:37:45.519
But whenever Jerome Powell opens his mouth except at home,

667
00:37:45.639 --> 00:37:47.920
imagine what imagine being married to Jerome Paul.

668
00:37:48.000 --> 00:37:50.519
Right, Jackson's Holes always a big one, Right, it's a biggie.

669
00:37:50.760 --> 00:37:52.480
I mean last year didn't do anything, but in twenty

670
00:37:52.519 --> 00:37:55.119
two he said something big in Jackson Hall and it

671
00:37:55.239 --> 00:37:57.360
caused markets to react very drastically.

672
00:37:57.519 --> 00:38:00.599
Imagine being so powerful that you would have to watch

673
00:38:00.880 --> 00:38:04.760
every single word you said and how it was going

674
00:38:04.800 --> 00:38:07.800
to be interpreted, and that you could send global markets

675
00:38:08.159 --> 00:38:12.800
spiraling downwards or soaring upwards by just saying the wrong thing.

676
00:38:13.280 --> 00:38:18.760
Yeah, I mean, even for example, the fomc's letter out

677
00:38:18.800 --> 00:38:21.119
to the community about why they're doing their interest rate,

678
00:38:21.400 --> 00:38:24.239
they'll have communities in the finance world that are looking

679
00:38:24.239 --> 00:38:27.840
at that saying, oh, they said we're versus May so

680
00:38:27.880 --> 00:38:31.159
that means this it's just one little word change and

681
00:38:31.119 --> 00:38:32.679
they read deep into it.

682
00:38:33.159 --> 00:38:36.679
Yeah, what is the meaning of the word is right? Yeah,

683
00:38:36.800 --> 00:38:38.920
oil was unchanged on the weeknd. I think you mentioned

684
00:38:38.960 --> 00:38:42.000
that seventy five to fifty gold up sixty eight bucks

685
00:38:42.039 --> 00:38:44.400
to an all time high. I should have listened to

686
00:38:44.400 --> 00:38:49.920
those gold bugs. It just makes absolutely no sense what's

687
00:38:49.960 --> 00:38:52.960
going on with gold. But it just keeps on keeping on.

688
00:38:54.119 --> 00:38:55.840
You just have a supply and demand thing. I mean,

689
00:38:56.760 --> 00:38:59.039
eventually that should be what it is.

690
00:38:59.559 --> 00:38:59.760
Read.

691
00:39:00.079 --> 00:39:01.400
I read a step the other day. I think it

692
00:39:01.440 --> 00:39:06.199
was for the commodities had their highest short interest for

693
00:39:06.239 --> 00:39:08.400
the first time in I bet three or four years.

694
00:39:08.679 --> 00:39:10.199
I forget how long I'll.

695
00:39:10.159 --> 00:39:14.320
Short interest being selling commodities that you don't own correct

696
00:39:14.320 --> 00:39:16.119
in the hope you'll be able to buy them back cheaper.

697
00:39:16.760 --> 00:39:18.079
And that's a very dangerous game.

698
00:39:19.119 --> 00:39:22.440
And on that Thursday, Friday and the following Monday, you know,

699
00:39:22.519 --> 00:39:25.719
commodities took a nose dived and then of course it

700
00:39:25.840 --> 00:39:27.920
just bounced right back up. So did it have anything

701
00:39:27.920 --> 00:39:29.960
to do with that short interest? Maybe? Maybe not.

702
00:39:30.239 --> 00:39:33.079
Also, gold is a kind of place for when you're

703
00:39:33.400 --> 00:39:37.599
fearing about global liquidity. People do tend to go to

704
00:39:37.679 --> 00:39:41.360
gold to go to places like for example, even the

705
00:39:41.559 --> 00:39:44.679
end is considered a safe haven currency. You know, Switzerland,

706
00:39:44.800 --> 00:39:47.639
their fronk is one of them. Our dollar will start

707
00:39:47.679 --> 00:39:50.480
to increase if there's any liquidity, and we saw that

708
00:39:50.920 --> 00:39:54.360
on that liquidity drain on Friday Monday, off the carry trade,

709
00:39:54.360 --> 00:39:57.360
where all of a sudden bonds were bought up like crazy,

710
00:39:57.440 --> 00:40:01.280
the dollar skyrocketed, you know it, that's what happens. And

711
00:40:01.760 --> 00:40:04.400
what happened that day is well, the vic skyrocketed. I mean,

712
00:40:04.440 --> 00:40:06.840
we didn't see the VIX, which is the volatility index

713
00:40:06.840 --> 00:40:09.559
for the S and P five hundred holdings. The volatility

714
00:40:09.559 --> 00:40:11.840
index is really just showing you how much something's going

715
00:40:11.920 --> 00:40:13.920
up and down, how many people are in the market

716
00:40:13.960 --> 00:40:16.079
trading right, And when there's a lot of people in

717
00:40:16.079 --> 00:40:18.960
the market trading, it gets a way higher. The higher

718
00:40:18.960 --> 00:40:21.079
the number. It's kind of like a fear indicator. It's

719
00:40:21.079 --> 00:40:23.239
shown you how much fear there is in the economy.

720
00:40:23.519 --> 00:40:25.639
We haven't hit the VIX level that we hit on

721
00:40:25.679 --> 00:40:28.000
that Monday since two thousand and eight.

722
00:40:28.159 --> 00:40:28.880
Yeah, yeah, two.

723
00:40:29.559 --> 00:40:32.480
It was higher than even the pandemic. And it's the

724
00:40:32.480 --> 00:40:35.159
same as the dot com bubble, so huge amount of

725
00:40:35.199 --> 00:40:38.239
it and normally it takes a certain amount of time

726
00:40:38.280 --> 00:40:40.679
for that VIX to come back down. It's now at

727
00:40:40.760 --> 00:40:44.199
fourteen eighty, right, it was at sixty something, now it's

728
00:40:44.239 --> 00:40:47.199
at fourteen eighty. And that took only about seven days

729
00:40:47.440 --> 00:40:50.760
for that to happen, means Sebastian, We did some research

730
00:40:50.800 --> 00:40:53.159
on how long it takes for the VIX to recover

731
00:40:53.400 --> 00:40:57.119
back down to its you know, not fearful levels, and

732
00:40:57.199 --> 00:40:58.920
normally it's one hundred and twenty days.

733
00:40:59.440 --> 00:41:02.119
Takes it takes place in a week, seven days.

734
00:41:02.159 --> 00:41:04.599
And there's only been two other times that this event

735
00:41:04.639 --> 00:41:07.280
has happened and it's returned so quickly back down to

736
00:41:07.320 --> 00:41:10.440
its non fearful level, and that was the twenty eighteen

737
00:41:10.840 --> 00:41:14.440
you know, reverse repo nightmare that happened kind of over

738
00:41:14.519 --> 00:41:16.519
night and they had to mess with rates and something

739
00:41:16.519 --> 00:41:20.199
in twenty sixteen too, something related to tech something like that.

740
00:41:20.320 --> 00:41:23.360
There's just a perfect example of why you've got to

741
00:41:23.679 --> 00:41:26.000
be able to ride out these kind of dips, because

742
00:41:26.039 --> 00:41:28.119
you could go to from the Monday low, the S

743
00:41:28.159 --> 00:41:30.239
and P got to what fifty one hundred, and we

744
00:41:30.320 --> 00:41:34.880
closed this past Friday at fifty five fifty something like that,

745
00:41:35.519 --> 00:41:38.559
by what seven percent in a week and a half. Yeah,

746
00:41:39.920 --> 00:41:45.800
bitcoin drop twenty one percent on the fifth, it's recouped

747
00:41:46.039 --> 00:41:47.079
almost all that to.

748
00:41:47.000 --> 00:41:49.480
That point, Dave, imagine how you sold on that Monday

749
00:41:49.480 --> 00:41:52.079
as a retail investor. That's one of the great benefits

750
00:41:52.119 --> 00:41:54.239
that working with the money manager gives you is well

751
00:41:54.280 --> 00:41:55.960
manage your emotions for you. You don't have to sit

752
00:41:56.000 --> 00:41:56.639
there and worry about it.

753
00:41:56.719 --> 00:41:57.400
And we were buying.

754
00:41:57.840 --> 00:41:59.599
Think about how many calls we got on that day,

755
00:42:00.039 --> 00:42:02.000
more than we had in the last two weeks.

756
00:42:01.760 --> 00:42:03.239
More than we've had in a year, I bet.

757
00:42:03.519 --> 00:42:05.920
Yeah, but I would caveat that with most of the

758
00:42:05.960 --> 00:42:09.480
people who've done the financial plan, they weren't the ones calling.

759
00:42:09.599 --> 00:42:11.800
That's exactly what I was gonna say too, you know

760
00:42:11.840 --> 00:42:12.280
what I mean.

761
00:42:12.440 --> 00:42:15.280
So I'd noticed that as a big difference of someone

762
00:42:15.320 --> 00:42:19.079
who has been able to kind of run this scenario

763
00:42:19.119 --> 00:42:21.760
of their biggest fear with their biggest what if scenario

764
00:42:22.320 --> 00:42:24.800
and then see it and show them that they're still

765
00:42:24.800 --> 00:42:28.039
going to be successful even if that fear happens. Then

766
00:42:28.039 --> 00:42:30.719
they're not worried about that drop as much versus someone

767
00:42:30.719 --> 00:42:33.480
who just has to trust the advisor saying, hey, it's

768
00:42:33.519 --> 00:42:35.599
gonna come back, right. You always hit a new all

769
00:42:35.639 --> 00:42:38.719
time high, which you know it's right, but it's hard

770
00:42:38.760 --> 00:42:41.719
to believe you're gonna be alright in your particular situation.

771
00:42:42.400 --> 00:42:44.920
I remember opening a new account a number of years

772
00:42:44.960 --> 00:42:47.119
ago and the gal had not been involved in the

773
00:42:47.159 --> 00:42:50.400
market before, and we did do our cost averaging, but

774
00:42:50.440 --> 00:42:54.159
despite that, at the end of a year she was

775
00:42:54.280 --> 00:42:57.480
down probably twenty percent because we were in a corrective cycle.

776
00:42:58.119 --> 00:43:00.760
And she called, she said, is it possible for it

777
00:43:00.760 --> 00:43:01.519
to go to zero?

778
00:43:02.719 --> 00:43:05.480
No, especially not if you're an indexes.

779
00:43:05.519 --> 00:43:07.119
It's not possible for it to go to zero.

780
00:43:07.719 --> 00:43:07.960
Yeah.

781
00:43:08.000 --> 00:43:10.320
I mean if you're in individual companies, of course, right,

782
00:43:10.360 --> 00:43:12.800
but indexes are not going to go to zero because

783
00:43:12.800 --> 00:43:15.639
they're always putting in new companies and taking out the

784
00:43:15.679 --> 00:43:19.159
bad ones. That's the benefit of investing in indexes, and

785
00:43:19.159 --> 00:43:21.199
that's why we have indexes as part of our money

786
00:43:21.239 --> 00:43:24.760
manager process. We're not just indexes, right, We're not anyone

787
00:43:24.760 --> 00:43:27.199
can just do indexes, but it's part of the model

788
00:43:27.280 --> 00:43:29.559
that we use because of that. Sure, you know you

789
00:43:29.679 --> 00:43:33.039
want that diversification. But on that point, though, Dave is

790
00:43:33.079 --> 00:43:35.920
saying that those three times and this is now the

791
00:43:35.960 --> 00:43:39.360
third time where VIX has gone back down, you know,

792
00:43:39.440 --> 00:43:42.280
in less than twenty days. Each one of those times,

793
00:43:42.280 --> 00:43:45.000
the market has continued to go higher and hire there

794
00:43:45.000 --> 00:43:47.760
wasn't any big recession that happen after that. The ones

795
00:43:47.800 --> 00:43:50.280
that are a recession is when they stay the VIC

796
00:43:50.360 --> 00:43:53.119
stays elevated for a multiple period of time, like one

797
00:43:53.199 --> 00:43:54.360
hundred and twenty days plus.

798
00:43:54.559 --> 00:43:57.719
The other number I keep remembering is that is at

799
00:43:57.760 --> 00:44:00.519
the end of June we're up double digits, And we

800
00:44:00.599 --> 00:44:03.519
talked about the statistic where if the market is up

801
00:44:03.559 --> 00:44:07.639
double digits at the end of June, the probability of

802
00:44:07.679 --> 00:44:09.639
it being higher at year end to one hundred percent.

803
00:44:10.639 --> 00:44:12.400
There's never been a time when it wasn't higher at

804
00:44:12.440 --> 00:44:13.000
the end of the year.

805
00:44:13.159 --> 00:44:15.079
And I think all we saw with this selloff was

806
00:44:15.119 --> 00:44:18.400
really just liquidity shock because of the end carriage trade.

807
00:44:18.400 --> 00:44:20.800
I don't think sure you can blame it a little

808
00:44:20.800 --> 00:44:23.519
bit on the recession worrias, but for the most part,

809
00:44:23.840 --> 00:44:26.280
the economic reports aren't quite showing that, and that's why

810
00:44:26.320 --> 00:44:28.360
the market has kind of repriced what they think the

811
00:44:28.360 --> 00:44:30.039
FED is going to do in this September meeting, because

812
00:44:30.039 --> 00:44:31.840
the FED is saying, yeah, we think it may be

813
00:44:31.880 --> 00:44:34.280
time for cuts, but we're not thinking as much as

814
00:44:34.280 --> 00:44:35.159
you guys are thinking.

815
00:44:35.400 --> 00:44:38.400
I think that if any selling was because of the recession,

816
00:44:38.440 --> 00:44:42.679
loom that's been washed away at this point. I mean,

817
00:44:42.679 --> 00:44:43.880
we'd bounced right back up.

818
00:44:44.199 --> 00:44:47.760
It does seem like the recession which will ultimately come,

819
00:44:47.880 --> 00:44:51.840
it has to, it's probably been pushed out a ways,

820
00:44:51.960 --> 00:44:56.880
and I'm thinking maybe mid next year at this point

821
00:44:56.960 --> 00:45:00.679
is what if at all? If even then, you never know.

822
00:45:00.719 --> 00:45:03.480
They happen every five years. Yeah, they happen every five

823
00:45:03.559 --> 00:45:05.480
years on average, and the last one we had was

824
00:45:05.519 --> 00:45:08.280
the very quick one back in twenty twenty. Yeah, and

825
00:45:08.320 --> 00:45:11.079
so twenty twenty five would would make sense from a

826
00:45:11.119 --> 00:45:14.199
statistical point of view. Interest rates were pretty flat on

827
00:45:14.239 --> 00:45:18.599
the week. The inverted yield curve got a little bit

828
00:45:18.639 --> 00:45:23.119
more inverted, seventeen basis points difference. The ten year yield

829
00:45:23.239 --> 00:45:27.360
is below the two year yield. Again, extremely unusual, and

830
00:45:27.400 --> 00:45:30.800
we're in that cycle for the longest period ever in

831
00:45:31.119 --> 00:45:34.960
the history of our country. Once the federally deserve does

832
00:45:35.039 --> 00:45:37.760
start dropping interest rates, the short rate is going to

833
00:45:37.840 --> 00:45:40.320
drop pretty quickly and we'll get to a more normal

834
00:45:40.599 --> 00:45:41.159
yield curve.

835
00:45:41.320 --> 00:45:43.360
We talked about it last week. Imagine how do we

836
00:45:44.320 --> 00:45:47.719
turned to cash when it first was inverted two years ago,

837
00:45:48.079 --> 00:45:50.639
we would have missed out on this whole rally, right, Yeah,

838
00:45:50.800 --> 00:45:52.679
not the strongest indicator at this point.

839
00:45:52.760 --> 00:45:55.440
Yeah, it's interesting, and there are there are money market

840
00:45:55.440 --> 00:45:59.079
funds out there, like Todd said, because they yield. They

841
00:45:59.239 --> 00:46:03.199
use primarily short term treasuries. Short term treasuries haven't fallen much.

842
00:46:03.239 --> 00:46:05.000
They're still hanging in that five to one five to

843
00:46:05.039 --> 00:46:08.400
two area. Money market funds are still paying over five percent.

844
00:46:08.480 --> 00:46:11.559
Vanguard Fidelity, some of the others. That will change very

845
00:46:11.599 --> 00:46:15.639
quickly once that happened, Right, And so if you have

846
00:46:15.679 --> 00:46:18.440
a fixed income portfolio, you may want to give some

847
00:46:18.519 --> 00:46:21.800
thought to having some longer term maturities with a portion

848
00:46:21.920 --> 00:46:24.440
of it, because if we do go into a recession,

849
00:46:25.119 --> 00:46:27.039
today's rates they're going to look pretty attractive.

850
00:46:27.400 --> 00:46:29.719
Yeah, and rates, like I said, they have dropped, but

851
00:46:29.760 --> 00:46:32.000
they have come back a little bit. And because of that,

852
00:46:32.119 --> 00:46:34.400
you could still get a MIGA and multi. Ye're guaranteed

853
00:46:34.400 --> 00:46:37.920
annuity that will pay you a guaranteed five percent plus

854
00:46:37.960 --> 00:46:41.960
potentially like five point three percent four five years. Whereas

855
00:46:42.000 --> 00:46:44.119
if they cut rates and then your Marty mark goes

856
00:46:44.159 --> 00:46:47.239
to three percent, say even you get three percent for

857
00:46:47.320 --> 00:46:50.280
five years, which is probably a little you know, not

858
00:46:50.360 --> 00:46:52.559
going to happen, but say it does, you're still missing

859
00:46:52.639 --> 00:46:54.519
out on that two percent a year that you could

860
00:46:54.559 --> 00:46:56.079
get with the same amount of risk.

861
00:46:56.280 --> 00:46:58.559
We don't do a lot of annuities, but you're right, Dad,

862
00:46:58.639 --> 00:47:01.039
that multi year guarantee a new where you can lock

863
00:47:01.119 --> 00:47:03.960
in five and a quarter, five point four, five point

864
00:47:03.960 --> 00:47:07.400
three something like that for five years. That's not just

865
00:47:07.519 --> 00:47:10.159
you know, for the next five months. That's for five years.

866
00:47:10.360 --> 00:47:14.519
And if you believe that the economy is going to

867
00:47:14.559 --> 00:47:16.920
it sometime in the next five years go into recession,

868
00:47:16.960 --> 00:47:19.760
and I think that's a pretty safe bet. That is

869
00:47:19.840 --> 00:47:23.880
going to be an extremely attractive On top of that,

870
00:47:24.920 --> 00:47:27.519
you get tax deferral, you know, you choose one to

871
00:47:27.519 --> 00:47:29.920
pay the tax or Coming to the end of this segment,

872
00:47:30.000 --> 00:47:31.800
we'll be back with the second half of The Money

873
00:47:31.880 --> 00:47:34.440
Matter Show. Once again, thanks for joining us. We'll have

874
00:47:34.480 --> 00:47:36.760
Dean and Dylan in the house as well. We'll talk

875
00:47:36.760 --> 00:47:37.199
to you soon.

876
00:47:37.719 --> 00:47:39.519
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is

877
00:47:39.519 --> 00:47:42.519
Sebastian borersing him here with David Sherwood, Todd Glick Junior,

878
00:47:42.679 --> 00:47:45.880
Dylan Greenberg and Dean Greenberg. How're we doing today?

879
00:47:45.960 --> 00:47:46.159
Good?

880
00:47:46.280 --> 00:47:48.000
Just give us a rundown on what happened last week

881
00:47:48.440 --> 00:47:49.400
top of the second hour.

882
00:47:49.679 --> 00:47:51.960
Okay, the down Jones was up two point nine percent

883
00:47:52.000 --> 00:47:53.519
on the week, that S and P five hundred was

884
00:47:53.599 --> 00:47:56.239
up three point nine percent on the week, NASDAK up

885
00:47:56.320 --> 00:48:00.400
five point three percent, Russell two thousand was up three percent,

886
00:48:00.519 --> 00:48:02.440
and the RSP which is the equal weighted S and

887
00:48:02.480 --> 00:48:04.679
P five hundred and two point five percent on the week.

888
00:48:05.239 --> 00:48:08.400
Those are very large moves, and of course the reason

889
00:48:08.519 --> 00:48:11.679
is that that that the market was taking recession. Some

890
00:48:11.800 --> 00:48:15.159
of the economic numbers this week kind of took that

891
00:48:15.280 --> 00:48:18.480
off the table for now and we need to quickly recover.

892
00:48:19.000 --> 00:48:20.880
I think something to point out on these numbers here

893
00:48:20.960 --> 00:48:23.559
is year to date Russell two thousand only up six percent,

894
00:48:24.159 --> 00:48:26.519
equal weighted S and P up eight point two percent,

895
00:48:27.000 --> 00:48:29.280
and so the equal weight is only off the highs

896
00:48:29.320 --> 00:48:31.719
of one point three percent, where the Russell two thousands

897
00:48:31.719 --> 00:48:33.519
off the high still a seven and a half percent

898
00:48:33.559 --> 00:48:35.760
from their highs. So what you saw is in that

899
00:48:35.840 --> 00:48:38.679
cell off the Russell two thousand got hit way harder

900
00:48:38.719 --> 00:48:40.760
than the equal weighted S and P, and then equal

901
00:48:40.760 --> 00:48:42.280
weight to S ANDP is kind of performing a little

902
00:48:42.320 --> 00:48:44.679
better on the on the on this comeback, and so

903
00:48:46.039 --> 00:48:48.320
Russell two thousand was beating equal weighted, you know, at

904
00:48:48.320 --> 00:48:50.480
the start of the month. Sure, and now it's it's different.

905
00:48:50.599 --> 00:48:54.000
So I think that plays into why we did add

906
00:48:54.039 --> 00:48:57.000
the equal weighted S and P into our models. It

907
00:48:57.119 --> 00:49:01.079
is a very good kind of diverse vacation tool away

908
00:49:01.079 --> 00:49:03.119
from the S and P, which is really heavy into

909
00:49:03.119 --> 00:49:06.800
those seven Magnificent seven. But on top of that, what

910
00:49:06.880 --> 00:49:10.840
it gives us is history on our side, because history

911
00:49:10.840 --> 00:49:13.440
tells us that every time the S and P five hundred,

912
00:49:13.599 --> 00:49:17.519
the regular weighted outperforms equated, that equal weighted will eventually

913
00:49:17.559 --> 00:49:21.159
start to outperform the regular weighted. And that normally happens

914
00:49:21.199 --> 00:49:24.039
in recession periods because those big high flyers sell off

915
00:49:24.159 --> 00:49:26.880
more and it doesn't impact the equ weighted S ANDP

916
00:49:26.960 --> 00:49:27.400
as much.

917
00:49:28.000 --> 00:49:30.960
Without coming into this year value with Trump growth and

918
00:49:31.519 --> 00:49:34.599
it's it had a period where it was catching up

919
00:49:34.639 --> 00:49:37.400
pretty fast to growth, and now growth has kind of

920
00:49:38.159 --> 00:49:41.719
edged ahead a little bit, which is understandable. We had

921
00:49:41.760 --> 00:49:44.320
the inflation number, the consumer price index, like I said,

922
00:49:44.360 --> 00:49:47.480
the lowest since November of twenty one, which is really

923
00:49:47.480 --> 00:49:49.920
good news. I always like to look at the components,

924
00:49:49.960 --> 00:49:53.719
what's making up the inflation. What are the most inflated items?

925
00:49:53.800 --> 00:49:57.559
Number one on the list year over year frozen juices,

926
00:49:58.159 --> 00:50:02.159
particularly orange juice. I don't really know why, but up

927
00:50:02.280 --> 00:50:07.000
nineteen point two percent. Tied for number one eggs up

928
00:50:07.079 --> 00:50:09.360
nineteen point two percent. But I think eggs have come down.

929
00:50:09.599 --> 00:50:10.880
I was going to say, I don't feel like eggs

930
00:50:10.920 --> 00:50:12.199
are that expensive.

931
00:50:11.800 --> 00:50:14.039
Not anymore. No, and they've come at there was a

932
00:50:14.039 --> 00:50:15.880
point where they were up seventy or eighty percent.

933
00:50:16.119 --> 00:50:18.199
Not buying frozen concentrated juices.

934
00:50:18.239 --> 00:50:21.519
But you kind of throwback to when I was a kid.

935
00:50:21.760 --> 00:50:24.320
Vehicle insurance, we know that that sky high because it

936
00:50:24.480 --> 00:50:26.280
can be you know, they can get away with it,

937
00:50:26.719 --> 00:50:31.440
up eighteen percent, Photo equipment up twelve percent, and number

938
00:50:31.440 --> 00:50:36.199
five on the list up ten percent. Indoor plants, Go figure,

939
00:50:36.360 --> 00:50:38.719
indoor plants. Indoor plants. They would have thought that'd be

940
00:50:38.719 --> 00:50:40.760
on the list. As you know. What's weird.

941
00:50:40.760 --> 00:50:43.599
We did get the PPI, but only the month over month.

942
00:50:43.639 --> 00:50:44.280
Why was that?

943
00:50:44.480 --> 00:50:46.599
Yeah, not the year of the year. No. I thought

944
00:50:46.599 --> 00:50:47.679
I saw a year of year number.

945
00:50:47.840 --> 00:50:50.239
Well if you see it. But on Tuesday released a

946
00:50:50.280 --> 00:50:52.719
PPI and it came in just slightly below. And that

947
00:50:52.840 --> 00:50:55.679
was another that came in at point one for the

948
00:50:55.719 --> 00:50:57.760
month over month. I couldn't find the year over here.

949
00:50:57.760 --> 00:51:01.000
But then, yeah, the CPI came in just with expectations.

950
00:51:01.000 --> 00:51:05.559
So that's why the market really like started propelling on Tuesday,

951
00:51:05.599 --> 00:51:08.639
continentcy Wednesday, and then the retail sales on Thursday gave

952
00:51:08.679 --> 00:51:09.360
it another boost.

953
00:51:09.400 --> 00:51:12.440
Hire Yeah, you got it with Walmart and the retail sales.

954
00:51:12.440 --> 00:51:16.360
What you have is as a strong economy with declining

955
00:51:16.440 --> 00:51:19.639
inflation and declining interest rates. That's pretty Jarry good scenario.

956
00:51:20.039 --> 00:51:23.480
Yeah, was coffee on that list at all?

957
00:51:23.559 --> 00:51:25.280
I think so, but I don't remember where it was.

958
00:51:25.280 --> 00:51:25.800
Where it was.

959
00:51:26.280 --> 00:51:27.760
Hey, let's talk about Starbucks.

960
00:51:27.960 --> 00:51:30.199
Well first first I want to talk about Dutch.

961
00:51:30.239 --> 00:51:31.599
We're going to talk about Dutch bros.

962
00:51:31.639 --> 00:51:33.159
I know Starbucks is a big good.

963
00:51:33.199 --> 00:51:34.679
That was a good segue. I like that, and they

964
00:51:34.760 --> 00:51:36.000
want to talk about Starbucks.

965
00:51:36.000 --> 00:51:37.840
So this Dutch bros. We were talking about it a

966
00:51:37.880 --> 00:51:40.159
little bit. Last week. They plunged and think about ten

967
00:51:40.159 --> 00:51:42.719
to fifteen percent off of their earnings wide because they

968
00:51:42.719 --> 00:51:45.639
said that they were gonna instead of opening about one

969
00:51:45.719 --> 00:51:47.519
hundred and seventy five stores, are going to open up

970
00:51:47.519 --> 00:51:51.599
one hundred and fifty. Well, market things that's overblown. Ubs

971
00:51:51.960 --> 00:51:54.159
gave it an upgrade and they popped about seven percent,

972
00:51:54.760 --> 00:51:57.000
So that's interesting. We were talking about how they have

973
00:51:57.119 --> 00:51:59.719
very low overhead and people are still going to be

974
00:51:59.760 --> 00:52:03.480
buying coffee Starbucks. What happened there day Starbucks.

975
00:52:03.559 --> 00:52:07.559
What an amazing week for Starbucks. Starbucks has been struggling mightily.

976
00:52:07.639 --> 00:52:11.639
They had made the decision a decade ago to go

977
00:52:11.760 --> 00:52:16.400
all in on China, making China really their number one customer,

978
00:52:16.840 --> 00:52:19.920
and their number one customer is very sick right now,

979
00:52:20.719 --> 00:52:24.400
and that you know, they were opening a store in

980
00:52:24.480 --> 00:52:28.639
China every nine hours. And China, the Chinese economy is

981
00:52:28.679 --> 00:52:31.639
struggling with the weight of their real estate bubble and

982
00:52:32.679 --> 00:52:36.719
how slowly they recovered from COVID and it just isn't

983
00:52:36.760 --> 00:52:40.199
getting any better. And we're seeing that with wind Resorts.

984
00:52:40.239 --> 00:52:42.760
We saw that with Starbucks, and the Starbucks stock was

985
00:52:42.880 --> 00:52:47.079
down there a multi year low. And on Monday, the

986
00:52:47.119 --> 00:52:50.559
Wall Street Journal, the Wall Street Journal reported that activist

987
00:52:50.679 --> 00:52:54.960
investors Starboard Value had joined Eliott Management and having a

988
00:52:55.000 --> 00:52:56.920
stake in the company. And generally when you have two

989
00:52:57.000 --> 00:53:00.800
different activists involved in the same style, that's a pretty

990
00:53:00.880 --> 00:53:04.679
darn good thing. And then on Tuesday, wow, the company announced.

991
00:53:04.920 --> 00:53:08.760
Starbucks announced that they had hired the popular Chipotle CEO

992
00:53:09.320 --> 00:53:12.719
guy by named the Brian Nichols to be the new CEO.

993
00:53:13.119 --> 00:53:17.719
Starbucks shares jumped twenty five percent on that news. Chipotle

994
00:53:17.800 --> 00:53:22.639
sold off ten percent. Brian nichol Is is considered by

995
00:53:22.679 --> 00:53:26.480
many to be the genius behind the Chipotle brand, which

996
00:53:26.519 --> 00:53:30.519
has been just a great place to have money. And

997
00:53:31.400 --> 00:53:32.920
I don't think you could have come up with a

998
00:53:32.960 --> 00:53:36.280
better hire. But they paid an arm and a leg

999
00:53:36.320 --> 00:53:39.519
to get him. Now, Brian's fifty years old, right, so

1000
00:53:39.559 --> 00:53:42.079
he's got some he's got some time ahead of him.

1001
00:53:42.440 --> 00:53:45.800
They gave him an eighty five million dollar signing bonus.

1002
00:53:45.840 --> 00:53:49.920
Pretty good signing bonus, right, ten million of it in

1003
00:53:50.039 --> 00:53:53.239
cash that has to be paid within the next six months.

1004
00:53:53.760 --> 00:53:57.119
Pretty good. Brian says, well, you know what, I would

1005
00:53:57.159 --> 00:54:00.239
not mind being the CEO of Starbucks. But I'm not

1006
00:54:00.239 --> 00:54:03.480
going to leave Newport Beach, California and move to Seattle.

1007
00:54:03.519 --> 00:54:06.679
And they go, hey, no problem, We're from home. So

1008
00:54:07.599 --> 00:54:10.119
I got you serious? Oh dead serious. I got a

1009
00:54:10.159 --> 00:54:12.519
couple of issues with this hire. Number One, I think

1010
00:54:12.519 --> 00:54:15.880
it's a fantastic higher. Okay, and the stock jump twenty

1011
00:54:15.880 --> 00:54:21.000
five percent. I get that, Be careful. There's most of

1012
00:54:21.039 --> 00:54:23.639
the price targets on Starbucks are in the one hundred

1013
00:54:23.639 --> 00:54:26.719
to one five area. The stocks at ninety five, So

1014
00:54:27.480 --> 00:54:30.400
even if he's successful at everything he does in the

1015
00:54:30.440 --> 00:54:34.360
short term, it might get up to where the targets are,

1016
00:54:34.400 --> 00:54:36.719
which is five to ten percent above what is now.

1017
00:54:38.440 --> 00:54:41.239
He's a great hire, but don't forget he has no

1018
00:54:41.440 --> 00:54:45.599
China experience at all. Chipotle has no no operation in China.

1019
00:54:46.280 --> 00:54:48.480
The Starbucks, you're going to have to know an awful

1020
00:54:48.519 --> 00:54:50.880
lot about China and how to run companies in China

1021
00:54:50.880 --> 00:54:52.000
and how to deal with China.

1022
00:54:52.280 --> 00:54:55.960
I'm interested to see what he does, just because he

1023
00:54:56.760 --> 00:54:59.039
did a very good job at Chipotle obviously, and is

1024
00:54:59.079 --> 00:55:01.760
able to retain a lot of those customers. Starbucks is

1025
00:55:01.760 --> 00:55:04.199
already able to retain a lot of their client base obviously.

1026
00:55:04.280 --> 00:55:06.679
Right if you buy Starbucks on Monday, the chances are

1027
00:55:06.679 --> 00:55:08.159
probably gonna buy it on Tuesday too.

1028
00:55:08.599 --> 00:55:10.199
I don't think you could have had a better hire,

1029
00:55:10.239 --> 00:55:12.440
which maybe why the stock jump twenty five percent. I'm

1030
00:55:12.440 --> 00:55:14.719
just saying from here, be careful, careful, be careful, and

1031
00:55:14.760 --> 00:55:16.880
if you have some you're fortunate enough to have some,

1032
00:55:17.199 --> 00:55:18.880
you bought when it was down in the seventies. Maybe

1033
00:55:18.880 --> 00:55:21.920
you take a little off the table here does now

1034
00:55:21.960 --> 00:55:24.239
he does. He not have any China experience, but he

1035
00:55:24.760 --> 00:55:26.800
has a very He has a company on his hands

1036
00:55:26.840 --> 00:55:31.400
that's really struggling. Starbucks is really struggling, and so he's

1037
00:55:31.400 --> 00:55:33.880
got he's got a big job ahead of him and

1038
00:55:34.320 --> 00:55:35.320
he's gonna work from home.

1039
00:55:35.800 --> 00:55:39.039
Which sometimes it's like from seeing it just going to

1040
00:55:39.079 --> 00:55:43.079
the Starbucks store, it's hard to believe that Starbucks is struggling. Yeah,

1041
00:55:43.159 --> 00:55:44.719
China's just destroying them.

1042
00:55:44.880 --> 00:55:47.440
Yeah, China. It's it's China. That's it's hurting them so bad.

1043
00:55:47.559 --> 00:55:50.840
It's but it's interesting. I don't know how you rebuild

1044
00:55:50.880 --> 00:55:54.679
a brand like that from home. That's I kind of

1045
00:55:54.719 --> 00:55:55.599
have a hard time with that.

1046
00:55:55.679 --> 00:55:58.360
I think, don't you have I don't think that it's

1047
00:55:58.840 --> 00:56:00.599
I don't need to rebuild now.

1048
00:56:00.679 --> 00:56:03.039
I don't want to under sell Brian Nichols because he's

1049
00:56:03.039 --> 00:56:06.599
spectacular and it's a spectacular higher and the stock deserved

1050
00:56:06.599 --> 00:56:10.320
to be significantly higher. It'll be it'll be fun to watch,

1051
00:56:10.840 --> 00:56:12.639
It'll be fun to watch, all right. So I'm gonna

1052
00:56:12.639 --> 00:56:14.599
talk a little bit about hybrids.

1053
00:56:15.039 --> 00:56:15.599
Let's do it.

1054
00:56:15.719 --> 00:56:20.000
We know hybrids are are selling electric vehicles, and I

1055
00:56:20.079 --> 00:56:24.079
get that hybrid is kind of an interesting way to

1056
00:56:24.119 --> 00:56:27.960
go in a hybrid, And people have asked me about hybrids.

1057
00:56:28.239 --> 00:56:30.559
So the electric vehicle we all know about that, you

1058
00:56:30.559 --> 00:56:32.840
get charge the vehicle, it runs until the battery runs

1059
00:56:32.880 --> 00:56:34.360
out right and you have to recharge it, and blah

1060
00:56:34.360 --> 00:56:37.920
blah blah. Hybrids that you can use gasoline, you don't

1061
00:56:37.960 --> 00:56:40.559
have to use the electric part of it. So what

1062
00:56:40.559 --> 00:56:43.239
what is a plug in hybrid? Why do I have

1063
00:56:43.320 --> 00:56:45.639
a plug in hybrid? What's the what's the point of it?

1064
00:56:46.320 --> 00:56:48.480
In a regular hybrid? This all there is is a

1065
00:56:48.519 --> 00:56:52.320
small battery, and the small battery relates back to the

1066
00:56:52.360 --> 00:56:55.840
burning of gasoline to help fuel the battery. The recumbent

1067
00:56:55.920 --> 00:56:58.400
breaking helps to refuel the battery, but it's a very

1068
00:56:58.400 --> 00:57:01.599
small battery. It does hell ever help you get better

1069
00:57:01.679 --> 00:57:05.679
gas mileage. You where you said, because I know you

1070
00:57:05.679 --> 00:57:08.920
own a hybrid. In plug in hybrids, that small battery

1071
00:57:08.960 --> 00:57:13.760
is still there, but there's a it's really more of

1072
00:57:13.800 --> 00:57:17.519
a theoretical reserve that's set aside. There's also a much

1073
00:57:17.679 --> 00:57:20.519
larger battery, ten to twenty times the size of the

1074
00:57:20.960 --> 00:57:25.079
regular hybrid battery, depending on the battery size and weight,

1075
00:57:25.320 --> 00:57:27.880
in the configuration of the vehicle you do. The problem

1076
00:57:27.920 --> 00:57:29.719
with a plug in hybrid is you do have to

1077
00:57:29.719 --> 00:57:31.559
plug it in every single night, so you're gonna want

1078
00:57:31.559 --> 00:57:33.599
to have a home charging system. If you don't have

1079
00:57:33.639 --> 00:57:36.360
a home charger, don't even consider a plug in hybrid.

1080
00:57:36.559 --> 00:57:39.480
It'll be just a nuisance to you. With a plug

1081
00:57:39.480 --> 00:57:42.800
in hybrid, with a home charger, you can plug in

1082
00:57:42.840 --> 00:57:45.079
every night and you get twenty five to fifty miles

1083
00:57:45.360 --> 00:57:48.280
on just battery burning no gas at all. Well, I

1084
00:57:48.280 --> 00:57:51.079
guess said. Having an electric vehicle of any type, it

1085
00:57:51.119 --> 00:57:55.079
would be very annoying without a home charging station. If

1086
00:57:55.119 --> 00:57:59.039
you're looking strictly for mileage, the hybrid has more range

1087
00:57:59.639 --> 00:58:02.519
than the plug in hybrid. But if you're looking to

1088
00:58:02.519 --> 00:58:05.559
buy less gas, the plug in hybrid is for you

1089
00:58:06.239 --> 00:58:09.039
kind of interesting. If my electric vehicle least were to

1090
00:58:09.119 --> 00:58:13.199
run out today, I think I might probably go with

1091
00:58:13.239 --> 00:58:13.920
a plug in hybrid.

1092
00:58:14.000 --> 00:58:14.639
Plug in hybrid.

1093
00:58:14.840 --> 00:58:17.440
I think so because I've got the home charging station already.

1094
00:58:18.039 --> 00:58:20.800
And the problem you have with an electric vehicle is,

1095
00:58:20.880 --> 00:58:23.599
unless you're charged all the time, if something comes up

1096
00:58:23.840 --> 00:58:25.960
you have to go, you got a problem. If it's

1097
00:58:26.079 --> 00:58:27.880
if you're a one car family. Now if you got

1098
00:58:27.920 --> 00:58:29.480
two cars. I've got two cars when I'm was a

1099
00:58:29.480 --> 00:58:31.639
gas lane car. So we're good to go, right. But

1100
00:58:31.800 --> 00:58:34.920
let's say you've got a child and a daughter in

1101
00:58:34.920 --> 00:58:37.920
Phoenix with family, right, and something that takes place, and

1102
00:58:38.000 --> 00:58:39.639
you've got to get up there. You get out to

1103
00:58:39.679 --> 00:58:41.679
your electric you and you got thirty percent battery. You

1104
00:58:41.719 --> 00:58:45.519
can't go. You can't go. You got to charge before

1105
00:58:45.599 --> 00:58:47.440
you can go, and that could take a couple hours.

1106
00:58:47.480 --> 00:58:48.599
That's not acceptable.

1107
00:58:49.400 --> 00:58:52.400
I'm almost saying that they're making homes now with the

1108
00:58:52.480 --> 00:58:56.239
level one charger already in the house, and I was

1109
00:58:56.400 --> 00:58:58.679
trying to explain to him, like that doesn't really help much,

1110
00:58:58.760 --> 00:59:00.239
Like you would still need to get the level two.

1111
00:59:00.559 --> 00:59:01.639
Yeah, you gotta have a level two.

1112
00:59:01.679 --> 00:59:03.119
You have the level two at your host Yeah, I have.

1113
00:59:03.159 --> 00:59:03.719
To have level two.

1114
00:59:03.679 --> 00:59:05.800
It's the level one. Yeah, I can TRYL one is

1115
00:59:05.840 --> 00:59:07.960
just plugging it into the wall. It takes light the

1116
00:59:07.960 --> 00:59:10.559
whole day, Okay, Yeah, and that's not realistic. You want

1117
00:59:10.599 --> 00:59:12.320
it to be overnight, which is why you get the

1118
00:59:12.400 --> 00:59:12.760
level two.

1119
00:59:13.159 --> 00:59:14.840
Level one is I'm sorry.

1120
00:59:15.280 --> 00:59:15.679
It's going to be.

1121
00:59:15.760 --> 00:59:17.440
The level one is going to be for charging golf cards.

1122
00:59:17.480 --> 00:59:18.480
Can't charge cars with that.

1123
00:59:19.079 --> 00:59:21.320
Yeah, I've got a couple of clients that have electric

1124
00:59:21.440 --> 00:59:24.280
vehicles that just you just plug it into the wall.

1125
00:59:24.480 --> 00:59:26.280
And if it takes a day to charge it, oh

1126
00:59:26.320 --> 00:59:29.760
well we're retired. We've got two cars. It doesn't matter, right, Yeah.

1127
00:59:29.760 --> 00:59:31.840
But level one is plugging it into the wall.

1128
00:59:31.840 --> 00:59:32.800
They must be retired.

1129
00:59:33.199 --> 00:59:36.079
Level two is to get a booster like I have,

1130
00:59:36.159 --> 00:59:39.679
where charges about four or five hours if I plug

1131
00:59:39.679 --> 00:59:41.360
it in in the evening before I go to bed.

1132
00:59:41.719 --> 00:59:44.960
It's programmed to charge overnight when electric rates are cheaper,

1133
00:59:45.159 --> 00:59:46.400
and it's good to go when I wake up in

1134
00:59:46.480 --> 00:59:49.320
the morning. Level three is what you see around town

1135
00:59:49.480 --> 00:59:51.679
or out out on the freeway where you need to

1136
00:59:51.760 --> 00:59:53.519
charge a little bit more quickly. You need to get

1137
00:59:53.519 --> 00:59:56.039
a you can generally get a fifty percent charge.

1138
00:59:55.840 --> 00:59:59.719
In about though, because you do not like plugging hybrids.

1139
01:00:00.079 --> 01:00:01.840
Mere a month and a half, two months ago, you're

1140
01:00:01.840 --> 01:00:02.519
saying they're stupid.

1141
01:00:02.559 --> 01:00:05.199
Why I thought it was the worst of both worlds, right?

1142
01:00:05.920 --> 01:00:11.280
And I you know, I think you know, electric vehicles

1143
01:00:11.320 --> 01:00:14.079
are about as good of an around town car as

1144
01:00:14.079 --> 01:00:16.480
you can get. And if I can get an a

1145
01:00:16.559 --> 01:00:19.960
round town car and a car that will get me

1146
01:00:20.000 --> 01:00:21.199
to Orange County.

1147
01:00:20.880 --> 01:00:22.440
On best of both world.

1148
01:00:22.440 --> 01:00:24.239
It's not the worst. It could be the best. I

1149
01:00:24.280 --> 01:00:28.360
may have misspoken, and I mean the best, right, Huh.

1150
01:00:28.400 --> 01:00:29.199
You like your freedom?

1151
01:00:29.239 --> 01:00:31.760
We all do, right, We all like freedom. And if

1152
01:00:31.960 --> 01:00:34.920
if you come up with a solid state battery that

1153
01:00:34.960 --> 01:00:36.800
you're talking about, that it'll get your six or seven

1154
01:00:36.880 --> 01:00:40.159
hundred miles real miles on an electric charge and recharge

1155
01:00:40.159 --> 01:00:42.199
in ten minutes, I'm all in.

1156
01:00:42.360 --> 01:00:45.159
We'll see, yeah, I mean on that. On economics, he

1157
01:00:45.239 --> 01:00:48.760
had Trump's economic debate that happened, not debate, but his

1158
01:00:48.880 --> 01:00:51.840
policy this week about just what he thinks about the economy,

1159
01:00:51.840 --> 01:00:54.480
and he talked about his conversation with Elon Musk about

1160
01:00:54.519 --> 01:00:57.119
EV's and he's like, I'm sorry, Elon, is just not

1161
01:00:57.159 --> 01:00:59.199
going to happen. I mean, we can't have these mandates.

1162
01:00:59.199 --> 01:01:02.039
And and Elon actually agreed. He was like, I totally agree.

1163
01:01:02.400 --> 01:01:06.320
Those mandates are not smart. We shouldn't have them. And

1164
01:01:06.400 --> 01:01:10.519
so it for him and Elon and Trump, they both

1165
01:01:10.679 --> 01:01:13.800
are on the understanding that you can't have an EV mandate.

1166
01:01:13.960 --> 01:01:15.199
Oh, I couldn't agree anymore.

1167
01:01:15.719 --> 01:01:18.079
The Biden administration realized that too, when they said that

1168
01:01:18.119 --> 01:01:19.840
the mandate is going to be twenty thirty five, or

1169
01:01:19.880 --> 01:01:22.079
it was like twenty thirty first, then they kept pushing

1170
01:01:22.079 --> 01:01:23.920
it back. Now it's twenty thirty five. They keep pushing

1171
01:01:23.960 --> 01:01:26.039
that mandate back about how many cars got to be

1172
01:01:26.039 --> 01:01:29.599
electric only because it's not realistic when they first said it.

1173
01:01:29.840 --> 01:01:32.159
The infrastructure just takes it on. We're a huge country.

1174
01:01:33.000 --> 01:01:34.679
If you make them, if you make them the way

1175
01:01:34.719 --> 01:01:37.360
they're supposed to be made, you won't have to mandate them.

1176
01:01:37.400 --> 01:01:39.719
People will want them. If you've got to get you

1177
01:01:39.760 --> 01:01:40.679
got any better mind.

1178
01:01:40.760 --> 01:01:41.280
Yeah, exactly.

1179
01:01:41.239 --> 01:01:45.079
The GM and all are thinking of like slowing down.

1180
01:01:45.599 --> 01:01:50.079
Yeah right, And like you mentioned earlier in the show, Dave,

1181
01:01:50.159 --> 01:01:54.079
the bitcoin has increased a little bit off it's low

1182
01:01:54.159 --> 01:01:56.199
that it had over I think it was like forty

1183
01:01:56.280 --> 01:01:59.000
nine k got down to so back up to fifty

1184
01:01:59.119 --> 01:02:02.840
nine k just trading around. It's two hundred days. See

1185
01:02:02.840 --> 01:02:03.679
what happens next.

1186
01:02:04.199 --> 01:02:06.000
I think the one thing we took away from that,

1187
01:02:06.280 --> 01:02:09.280
Todd was what it was. It is a risk asset.

1188
01:02:10.719 --> 01:02:13.000
We've we've had a lot to talk about. While you know,

1189
01:02:13.039 --> 01:02:14.400
you want to be out of armed way and get

1190
01:02:14.440 --> 01:02:17.760
some bitcoin, you know it's an alternative, but no.

1191
01:02:17.559 --> 01:02:20.480
Well it can be that when enough people adopt it.

1192
01:02:20.920 --> 01:02:21.400
You can't.

1193
01:02:21.840 --> 01:02:24.079
There's not enough adoption right now. I mean it's still

1194
01:02:24.119 --> 01:02:26.760
only like a two trillion dollar market, so you got

1195
01:02:26.760 --> 01:02:29.679
to have something like a gold market cap in order

1196
01:02:29.719 --> 01:02:32.880
to have not the volatility that it's been experienced over

1197
01:02:32.920 --> 01:02:33.679
the last ten years.

1198
01:02:33.840 --> 01:02:36.000
But at this point, it's a risk asset and it's

1199
01:02:36.480 --> 01:02:39.599
gonna move with the market and maybe even time something.

1200
01:02:39.679 --> 01:02:42.239
Well, anyone who thought it wasn't a risk asset over

1201
01:02:42.239 --> 01:02:44.920
the I mean, who yeah. I mean it's always a

1202
01:02:45.000 --> 01:02:47.199
risk asset. I mean some people try to call it

1203
01:02:47.199 --> 01:02:52.280
an inflation hedge, but it's really a risk asset you're playing.

1204
01:02:52.320 --> 01:02:54.840
It's the same way that a stock, a tech stock,

1205
01:02:54.880 --> 01:02:57.719
would be an inflation hedge. Sure, not really, but it's

1206
01:02:57.800 --> 01:03:00.000
not designed for It's just that if you make an

1207
01:03:00.079 --> 01:03:03.320
off in the stock, then it eats you know, inflation

1208
01:03:03.400 --> 01:03:04.320
doesn't eat away at you.

1209
01:03:05.119 --> 01:03:07.440
So what do these two companies have in common? Guys

1210
01:03:08.079 --> 01:03:10.840
alta beauty and serious ExM.

1211
01:03:12.519 --> 01:03:13.800
Warren Buffett.

1212
01:03:15.039 --> 01:03:18.679
Seabeth has been reading the news. Those two companies seem

1213
01:03:18.719 --> 01:03:20.280
to have nothing in common, And I guess probably the

1214
01:03:20.320 --> 01:03:22.440
thing they have in common is they're both in the

1215
01:03:22.480 --> 01:03:25.960
toilet this year and they both were recently added to

1216
01:03:26.039 --> 01:03:27.440
Warren Buffett's portfolio.

1217
01:03:27.639 --> 01:03:30.119
I actually didn't see serious XIMS. I did see altas,

1218
01:03:30.119 --> 01:03:34.239
but contact clues right interesting on Alta.

1219
01:03:35.119 --> 01:03:37.800
Alta Beauty and Alta Beauty was the Darling that was

1220
01:03:37.840 --> 01:03:40.280
a Darling stock? I mean that was a high flyer

1221
01:03:41.000 --> 01:03:43.639
not that long ago. And it's down thirty three percent this year.

1222
01:03:44.679 --> 01:03:46.880
To get a little pop on Thursday when Warren said

1223
01:03:46.920 --> 01:03:50.360
he's he's taking a steak. Serious XM down forty five

1224
01:03:50.519 --> 01:03:53.079
percent this year. Got a little pop on Thursday when

1225
01:03:53.119 --> 01:03:54.320
Warren said he taking a steak.

1226
01:03:54.440 --> 01:03:57.079
So maybe that's why he raised cash from Apple, a

1227
01:03:57.079 --> 01:03:58.119
little diversification.

1228
01:03:58.280 --> 01:04:01.519
I wouldn't trust Warren on the serious XM because he's old,

1229
01:04:01.559 --> 01:04:06.159
and what does he know about people buying radio subscriptions

1230
01:04:06.199 --> 01:04:06.760
these days?

1231
01:04:07.000 --> 01:04:07.920
But it is kind of fun.

1232
01:04:08.000 --> 01:04:10.800
Have you even thought about Spotify? Apple?

1233
01:04:11.159 --> 01:04:11.320
Right?

1234
01:04:11.400 --> 01:04:14.199
You're not gonna serious XM and not be able to

1235
01:04:14.280 --> 01:04:14.920
choose what else?

1236
01:04:15.199 --> 01:04:16.679
What you're going to lislevant?

1237
01:04:17.199 --> 01:04:21.119
I mean it's no business. I have no serious, serious exam.

1238
01:04:21.360 --> 01:04:24.320
Do you have your generation? Your generation loves it?

1239
01:04:24.559 --> 01:04:27.599
I totally agree that's dying off unfortunately, right.

1240
01:04:27.760 --> 01:04:30.559
My generation or your generation, Oh that's sad.

1241
01:04:31.199 --> 01:04:33.920
It is it's happened, right, So yeah, but I mean

1242
01:04:33.920 --> 01:04:37.599
you got Spotify and you got Apple Music. You got

1243
01:04:37.639 --> 01:04:40.239
all those different streaming and I can.

1244
01:04:40.159 --> 01:04:41.960
Pick the song I want to listen to, not have

1245
01:04:42.039 --> 01:04:43.199
this random you know.

1246
01:04:43.280 --> 01:04:44.639
I'm like, I mean, you can go in and you

1247
01:04:44.679 --> 01:04:47.519
can just look on Spotify. You just look up seventies

1248
01:04:47.639 --> 01:04:49.679
rock and I will give you a whole playlist like yeah, one,

1249
01:04:49.679 --> 01:04:50.960
O seven five does Yeah.

1250
01:04:50.960 --> 01:04:53.159
And now Serious has that as well. I mean they have.

1251
01:04:53.320 --> 01:04:54.800
I'm just Spotify.

1252
01:04:55.079 --> 01:04:57.880
But don't those are those cost money too? Don't they aren't?

1253
01:04:57.880 --> 01:04:59.159
They subscription based right?

1254
01:04:59.280 --> 01:05:01.960
But they're cheaper and I can play an exact song

1255
01:05:02.239 --> 01:05:04.920
whenever I want. I don't have to just listen to

1256
01:05:04.960 --> 01:05:05.800
a genre of music.

1257
01:05:05.920 --> 01:05:09.559
Also, they got podcasts and books and other things. So

1258
01:05:09.599 --> 01:05:12.519
you're paying for the subscription. Who Spotify, Spotify and Apple

1259
01:05:12.599 --> 01:05:14.599
Music and all. You're paying for a subscription, but it

1260
01:05:14.639 --> 01:05:16.840
has more going on than just music.

1261
01:05:17.320 --> 01:05:20.559
It's more connected. I mean, if you're someone under fifty,

1262
01:05:20.559 --> 01:05:24.280
you probably use one of those services. Dylan's talking about Apple, Spotify,

1263
01:05:24.320 --> 01:05:25.039
ams on music.

1264
01:05:25.280 --> 01:05:27.719
So you're saying Serious is maybe yesterday's news.

1265
01:05:27.719 --> 01:05:29.079
Oh it's a dying business.

1266
01:05:29.159 --> 01:05:32.159
Yeah, okay, unless I figure out how to do other things.

1267
01:05:32.480 --> 01:05:33.760
I cable TV, well, think about it.

1268
01:05:33.760 --> 01:05:35.800
I mean most people don't have serious XM on as

1269
01:05:35.800 --> 01:05:37.039
an app on their phone.

1270
01:05:37.320 --> 01:05:38.840
Or what are you guys? When you watch TV? What

1271
01:05:38.840 --> 01:05:39.960
do you? How do you watch TV?

1272
01:05:40.280 --> 01:05:40.920
Like live TV?

1273
01:05:41.280 --> 01:05:41.639
Yeah?

1274
01:05:41.719 --> 01:05:43.800
YouTube TV? That's my subscription.

1275
01:05:44.599 --> 01:05:47.239
So you subscribe to YouTube correct? Now if you wanted

1276
01:05:47.280 --> 01:05:49.239
to get a local channel, can you? Ye?

1277
01:05:49.280 --> 01:05:49.760
Yeah?

1278
01:05:49.880 --> 01:05:52.920
YouTube is like direct TV in that sense. He wants

1279
01:05:53.000 --> 01:05:54.000
live games, live TV.

1280
01:05:54.679 --> 01:05:58.079
So I don't watch local three quarters watch.

1281
01:05:58.239 --> 01:06:01.840
I just do streaming and YouTube. But my YouTube is

1282
01:06:01.920 --> 01:06:05.320
just like it's not current events, it's just like videos,

1283
01:06:05.360 --> 01:06:06.880
you know, So you don't.

1284
01:06:06.599 --> 01:06:08.199
Watch TV for the most part.

1285
01:06:10.000 --> 01:06:11.880
And also, I mean, so it's going away you look

1286
01:06:11.880 --> 01:06:15.119
at and that's why it's Cable's going away turn into

1287
01:06:15.199 --> 01:06:18.639
YouTube TV. DirecTV is going away because they're doing YouTube TV.

1288
01:06:18.719 --> 01:06:21.440
And then all these streaming services are now getting NFL

1289
01:06:21.480 --> 01:06:23.199
games the rights to it. So you can only watch

1290
01:06:23.280 --> 01:06:25.440
Thursday night football on Amazon. You can only watch I

1291
01:06:25.480 --> 01:06:27.239
think it's like Sunday Night Football is going forward, might

1292
01:06:27.280 --> 01:06:27.960
be Peacock only.

1293
01:06:28.119 --> 01:06:29.679
So how do you get that subscriptions?

1294
01:06:29.719 --> 01:06:30.880
How do you get that done? Here?

1295
01:06:30.920 --> 01:06:33.199
By the subscription, you have to have Peacock to watch it.

1296
01:06:33.239 --> 01:06:35.400
You have to have Amazon Prime to watch it, and

1297
01:06:35.440 --> 01:06:38.559
now they're gonna get that until it's all on streaming only,

1298
01:06:38.760 --> 01:06:41.559
and then the streamers are gonna start bundling, like Disney

1299
01:06:41.559 --> 01:06:45.079
owns Hulu, Disney Plus and ESPN Plus, so you can

1300
01:06:45.119 --> 01:06:47.360
get a bundle so it's cheaper. It's fourteen dollars a

1301
01:06:47.360 --> 01:06:49.840
month or something like that for all three. If you

1302
01:06:49.880 --> 01:06:51.800
get them separately, it's like twenty five dollars a month.

1303
01:06:52.039 --> 01:06:55.679
But then eventually you take away it's like the Blockbuster

1304
01:06:55.760 --> 01:06:58.639
and the Netflix. You take away it's store a cable

1305
01:06:59.400 --> 01:07:00.840
all of its streams. I mean, that's the New Age,

1306
01:07:00.840 --> 01:07:03.000
and then it comes back full circle and it'll start

1307
01:07:03.000 --> 01:07:05.480
looking like cable TV again. But you're just paying for

1308
01:07:05.679 --> 01:07:06.840
multiple subscriptions.

1309
01:07:06.960 --> 01:07:10.000
What's the one that's it's a free TV? Pluto? Right,

1310
01:07:10.280 --> 01:07:12.599
free TV? Why is it free because they have ads?

1311
01:07:12.679 --> 01:07:14.599
Isn't that network television? What's the difference?

1312
01:07:14.679 --> 01:07:14.800
Right?

1313
01:07:14.800 --> 01:07:15.239
Exactly?

1314
01:07:15.320 --> 01:07:15.840
What is that?

1315
01:07:15.920 --> 01:07:16.719
I mean, it's crazy.

1316
01:07:16.960 --> 01:07:19.360
I mean, now digital it's not cables and stuff like that.

1317
01:07:19.400 --> 01:07:20.920
I guess, yeah, that's a great point.

1318
01:07:21.199 --> 01:07:24.119
It's the New Age, but it's similar to the old age.

1319
01:07:24.199 --> 01:07:26.320
Well just seems like the same old stuff.

1320
01:07:26.400 --> 01:07:29.760
Well, it's like Facebook, for example, Like how do they

1321
01:07:29.800 --> 01:07:32.000
make money? You just use the service the same way

1322
01:07:32.039 --> 01:07:34.920
that when we're on Pluto TV, they're that data of

1323
01:07:34.960 --> 01:07:37.159
what we're watching is being sold as well, not just

1324
01:07:37.199 --> 01:07:37.599
the ads.

1325
01:07:37.760 --> 01:07:40.000
Yeah, I would never watch market it as another director

1326
01:07:40.039 --> 01:07:40.920
V I would.

1327
01:07:40.760 --> 01:07:45.960
Never watch Pluto. I would. It's free, Okay, that's what that's.

1328
01:07:46.000 --> 01:07:48.639
So you don't mind commercials, They're.

1329
01:07:48.519 --> 01:07:52.599
Just cable television. Yeah, I mean, I'm gonna deal with

1330
01:07:52.639 --> 01:07:53.119
it anyways.

1331
01:07:53.159 --> 01:07:55.760
If I have cable, I'm a little bit confused because

1332
01:07:55.760 --> 01:07:58.440
I'm reading that Serious xem three fourths of the revenue

1333
01:07:58.519 --> 01:08:01.719
is based off of their descriptions obviously, right, and then

1334
01:08:01.920 --> 01:08:06.840
the other quarter is based off of advertising revenue. So

1335
01:08:07.039 --> 01:08:08.960
if I'm paying for a subscription and then I have

1336
01:08:09.000 --> 01:08:11.280
to listen to ads on top of it, that's crap.

1337
01:08:12.480 --> 01:08:12.719
I know.

1338
01:08:12.760 --> 01:08:15.039
I couldn't agree with you more. Right, Well, do you

1339
01:08:15.079 --> 01:08:17.760
listen when you subscribe to Amazon and they charge you

1340
01:08:17.840 --> 01:08:20.359
extra for some particular show? Do you have?

1341
01:08:21.119 --> 01:08:23.520
Yeah, that is annoyed. Do you have advertisements on Serious X?

1342
01:08:23.720 --> 01:08:24.039
I do not?

1343
01:08:24.279 --> 01:08:26.439
Okay, So I wonder if there's like a free version

1344
01:08:26.479 --> 01:08:28.079
of Serious X some that you listen.

1345
01:08:27.880 --> 01:08:31.239
To subscription plans have low tears.

1346
01:08:31.600 --> 01:08:34.680
Right, So think about this. When you have a song

1347
01:08:34.720 --> 01:08:37.439
and you say, I'm I'm someone who owns the song.

1348
01:08:37.520 --> 01:08:39.319
I want the song to be played more. You're going

1349
01:08:39.399 --> 01:08:41.800
to pay the people to put that song on so

1350
01:08:41.800 --> 01:08:44.920
that they could probably make money off certain songs. You know,

1351
01:08:45.000 --> 01:08:48.520
the record companies yourselves, paying serious exempt to make sure

1352
01:08:48.520 --> 01:08:50.520
that those songs are getting played so more people.

1353
01:08:50.600 --> 01:08:53.319
And then another one of their big ones is they

1354
01:08:53.359 --> 01:08:55.680
own Pandora. I don't know if you guys are familiar.

1355
01:08:55.359 --> 01:08:58.319
With Pandora is great to listen to them, speaking of

1356
01:08:58.359 --> 01:09:01.680
picking your own song, picking your own John, Pandora is great.

1357
01:09:01.760 --> 01:09:02.279
Pay for it.

1358
01:09:02.319 --> 01:09:04.239
I love it. I don't pay any for Pandor.

1359
01:09:05.199 --> 01:09:07.000
You pay for you pay for serious excit.

1360
01:09:07.239 --> 01:09:11.800
Yeah. And also also on my a cable subscriber, and

1361
01:09:11.880 --> 01:09:15.439
I have my computer bundled with that, and it's like

1362
01:09:15.479 --> 01:09:17.319
I have to decide each month whether it make my

1363
01:09:17.359 --> 01:09:19.840
mortgage payment or my cable building. That's interesting.

1364
01:09:20.399 --> 01:09:22.720
Don't you also have streaming services?

1365
01:09:23.199 --> 01:09:25.760
Yes? I have all those on there. Yeah, I have

1366
01:09:25.800 --> 01:09:28.479
all those on the cable cable and streaming.

1367
01:09:28.079 --> 01:09:32.840
When you like U consultants for figuring this crap out

1368
01:09:32.960 --> 01:09:33.760
cable TV.

1369
01:09:33.960 --> 01:09:36.760
Need a cable, you know. But here's the bottom line

1370
01:09:36.960 --> 01:09:39.319
is you could do it perfectly and maybe save one

1371
01:09:39.359 --> 01:09:42.840
hundred bucks a month, so you know, it's what and

1372
01:09:42.840 --> 01:09:45.079
and risk not being able to watch something you want

1373
01:09:45.119 --> 01:09:45.399
to watch.

1374
01:09:45.920 --> 01:09:48.479
The whole point is people are moving away from the

1375
01:09:48.520 --> 01:09:50.880
traditional legacy. You make a good point, and they're moving

1376
01:09:50.920 --> 01:09:51.640
to these new the.

1377
01:09:51.680 --> 01:09:53.479
Same why is Warren buying serious?

1378
01:09:54.199 --> 01:09:56.439
Maybe potentially you don't trust Warren on some of these

1379
01:09:56.479 --> 01:09:58.399
new technological advancements.

1380
01:09:57.920 --> 01:10:00.039
Because he is ninety. I've been around long, and I

1381
01:10:00.359 --> 01:10:02.840
remember when Warren back in the eighties said he would

1382
01:10:02.880 --> 01:10:06.119
never buy any technology related thing because he didn't trust it.

1383
01:10:06.199 --> 01:10:08.439
I think a lot of people listen to me a

1384
01:10:08.479 --> 01:10:08.680
lot of.

1385
01:10:08.640 --> 01:10:11.439
Apples now one of the Apple's biggest showholders.

1386
01:10:12.000 --> 01:10:13.640
I think a lot of people listen to talk shows

1387
01:10:13.640 --> 01:10:16.640
and like sports shows on serious XM too, And I

1388
01:10:16.720 --> 01:10:18.479
just think, I guess the recurring subscribers.

1389
01:10:18.560 --> 01:10:20.279
I mean, we've talked about iHeartMedia.

1390
01:10:20.359 --> 01:10:21.920
I know I can't whatever.

1391
01:10:22.159 --> 01:10:24.039
Well, it's like somebody, It's like somebody, It's like so

1392
01:10:24.079 --> 01:10:24.600
many things.

1393
01:10:25.479 --> 01:10:27.399
I'm really trying to finally make a case for it,

1394
01:10:27.399 --> 01:10:28.840
and I can't a great business model.

1395
01:10:28.960 --> 01:10:33.159
It's like so many things. Todd. You talk about alarm companies, right,

1396
01:10:33.439 --> 01:10:35.880
once you get signed up with the alarm company, you're

1397
01:10:35.920 --> 01:10:38.600
going to keep paying that. Yeah, you know tell health

1398
01:10:38.600 --> 01:10:41.600
reason is over because it's just too much hassle to change. Yeah,

1399
01:10:41.640 --> 01:10:43.399
and that's kind of where I'm at with the cable thing.

1400
01:10:43.520 --> 01:10:46.000
Is that, Okay, I could go through and upset my

1401
01:10:46.119 --> 01:10:49.359
world and my wife's world and maybe save one hundred bucks.

1402
01:10:50.239 --> 01:10:50.680
Yeah I don't.

1403
01:10:50.760 --> 01:10:52.840
I mean, it's it's dying. It's not dead.

1404
01:10:53.359 --> 01:10:56.199
Yeah, yeah, you would have to wait till my generation

1405
01:10:56.359 --> 01:10:58.720
dies off, which is what you're here on the show.

1406
01:10:58.760 --> 01:11:02.239
I mean, it's gonna take twenty five and then serious XM, Walgreens,

1407
01:11:02.239 --> 01:11:03.479
CVS are all done for.

1408
01:11:03.760 --> 01:11:07.399
Yeah, you guys said that business model Walgreens or CVS

1409
01:11:07.520 --> 01:11:10.680
was broken, and boy, I tell you it's it's happening.

1410
01:11:11.560 --> 01:11:14.000
It's happening. It's a it's of course. I think if

1411
01:11:14.039 --> 01:11:16.119
they would stop the theft, if they would make any

1412
01:11:16.199 --> 01:11:20.600
effort to stop the theft, that might reverse their fortunes.

1413
01:11:20.640 --> 01:11:22.720
But they don't seem to be the least bit interested

1414
01:11:22.880 --> 01:11:27.960
dose stopping on this theft that's going on. From their

1415
01:11:28.000 --> 01:11:29.560
stories NonStop.

1416
01:11:29.239 --> 01:11:32.560
There's no way that security costs trumps the shrinkage that.

1417
01:11:32.479 --> 01:11:35.039
They make it a drive up pharmacy and make it

1418
01:11:35.079 --> 01:11:38.720
that that's it. Don't sell chocolate bars, don't sell tampons,

1419
01:11:38.720 --> 01:11:39.680
don't sell anything else.

1420
01:11:39.760 --> 01:11:42.319
Selp your drugs, or if you do sell them, put

1421
01:11:42.319 --> 01:11:44.680
them under lock and key, which is what seems to

1422
01:11:44.680 --> 01:11:47.159
be the way we're going. Or make there be some

1423
01:11:47.279 --> 01:11:50.000
penalty for actually stealing stuff. Can you imagine?

1424
01:11:50.079 --> 01:11:51.039
Yeah, could you imagine that?

1425
01:11:51.119 --> 01:11:54.600
One well Man talk about old school. We'll be back.

1426
01:11:54.640 --> 01:11:56.319
We thank you for joining us at the end of

1427
01:11:56.359 --> 01:11:59.279
this segment. We'll be back after this break. Thanks again.

1428
01:12:00.640 --> 01:12:03.680
Welcome back. You're listening to the Money Matter Show. I'm

1429
01:12:03.720 --> 01:12:07.600
here with Dave Sherwood, Todd Glick and Sebastian Borsini. A

1430
01:12:07.640 --> 01:12:09.279
lot going on in the markets. We got a lot

1431
01:12:09.399 --> 01:12:12.119
thinking about for the next four months. Really, I mean,

1432
01:12:12.159 --> 01:12:14.640
we talk about the fed ray cuts coming up, and

1433
01:12:14.680 --> 01:12:16.439
that's been really the biggest thing.

1434
01:12:16.640 --> 01:12:18.920
I feel like a lot of the political stuff.

1435
01:12:18.720 --> 01:12:20.880
Going on is a lot is just noise from the

1436
01:12:20.920 --> 01:12:23.239
media is trying to pick have you pick a side?

1437
01:12:23.640 --> 01:12:25.960
Absolutely like and I saw it on like the right

1438
01:12:26.000 --> 01:12:29.399
wing media and stuff is saying fighting and Commalo were

1439
01:12:29.479 --> 01:12:32.720
to blame for the crap, like the market downturn.

1440
01:12:32.399 --> 01:12:33.720
Those three days.

1441
01:12:34.359 --> 01:12:37.479
Economy sucks. That's what they're saying, and in reality had

1442
01:12:37.520 --> 01:12:38.239
nothing to do with them.

1443
01:12:38.520 --> 01:12:38.920
Brothers.

1444
01:12:38.920 --> 01:12:40.920
Like the quiet things are what actually investors look at

1445
01:12:40.920 --> 01:12:44.479
in the markets are looking at, not what's going on

1446
01:12:44.520 --> 01:12:45.159
in the media.

1447
01:12:45.359 --> 01:12:46.359
My favorite side, you.

1448
01:12:46.359 --> 01:12:49.039
Got, My favorite thing is Kamala coming out and saying

1449
01:12:49.119 --> 01:12:52.359
I will lower grocery food prices if you put me

1450
01:12:52.359 --> 01:12:55.079
in office. Oh yeah, yeah, well you're already in office.

1451
01:12:55.319 --> 01:12:57.000
Yeah yeah, yeah. And that's what I.

1452
01:12:56.920 --> 01:13:00.520
Hate about politicians, especially in their first term, is I'll

1453
01:13:00.560 --> 01:13:01.920
do this for you. I don't want to do it now,

1454
01:13:02.000 --> 01:13:03.680
but I'll do it the second time because then I

1455
01:13:03.720 --> 01:13:05.720
can't get I can't get reelected.

1456
01:13:05.760 --> 01:13:07.279
So I'm just gonna say what I wanted to wait for.

1457
01:13:07.319 --> 01:13:09.159
I didn't do in the first four years because I

1458
01:13:09.199 --> 01:13:11.239
needed to hold something back because it's politics.

1459
01:13:11.359 --> 01:13:13.000
I gotta do something for the next four years.

1460
01:13:13.039 --> 01:13:13.239
Yeah.

1461
01:13:13.239 --> 01:13:14.479
It was so funny, and it's.

1462
01:13:14.319 --> 01:13:16.399
Just every politician does it when they're trying to get

1463
01:13:16.399 --> 01:13:18.119
re elected, and that's why they never get anything done.

1464
01:13:18.319 --> 01:13:23.880
Trump and is economic press conference. He says price controls

1465
01:13:23.920 --> 01:13:27.800
don't work because they end up making everything more expensive.

1466
01:13:28.039 --> 01:13:30.720
One hundred percent right, like you've seen that in all history.

1467
01:13:30.920 --> 01:13:35.199
Also communism, socialism and communism depends how it works, right,

1468
01:13:35.199 --> 01:13:37.439
But yeah, price controls don't work on any level. That

1469
01:13:37.560 --> 01:13:39.880
never really has one hundred percent rights. And then he says,

1470
01:13:40.479 --> 01:13:42.880
and on day one of my presidency, I'm bringing down

1471
01:13:42.880 --> 01:13:43.800
prices immediately.

1472
01:13:44.760 --> 01:13:46.560
How are you gonna do that?

1473
01:13:46.640 --> 01:13:47.239
You can't.

1474
01:13:47.319 --> 01:13:51.319
You can't break that prices immediately without price control. It's

1475
01:13:51.359 --> 01:13:53.560
it's funny and you have to take it with a

1476
01:13:53.560 --> 01:13:54.680
grain of salt on both sides.

1477
01:13:54.840 --> 01:13:57.119
When I've said before that my treadmill at the gym

1478
01:13:57.199 --> 01:13:59.319
is in front of CNN, I can't do anything about it, right,

1479
01:14:00.319 --> 01:14:03.680
So I have I have the I have my cell

1480
01:14:03.680 --> 01:14:06.079
phone and I have the Fox app on it. Now.

1481
01:14:07.840 --> 01:14:10.079
Message to Fox if you're listening to your app is

1482
01:14:10.119 --> 01:14:13.840
the worst app ever in history. It's a horrible app.

1483
01:14:13.960 --> 01:14:17.840
It's non functional. It's horrible. But once in a while,

1484
01:14:17.880 --> 01:14:20.880
I'm able, actually able to get their app to work. Right.

1485
01:14:20.960 --> 01:14:24.359
And So I've got CNN on the on the TV above,

1486
01:14:24.640 --> 01:14:27.680
I've got Fox on the little TV right on my treadmill,

1487
01:14:27.880 --> 01:14:32.520
and I'm thinking, somewhere in between here is the real news, right.

1488
01:14:32.560 --> 01:14:35.439
I know, how do you not just see that everybody

1489
01:14:35.479 --> 01:14:37.560
on the right is the devil according to CNN, and

1490
01:14:37.600 --> 01:14:40.199
everybody on the left is the devil according to Fox.

1491
01:14:41.359 --> 01:14:42.439
It doesn't make sense.

1492
01:14:42.960 --> 01:14:46.119
I would love to have a news channel, not somebody's

1493
01:14:46.159 --> 01:14:48.960
opinion of the news, but an actual news channel. And

1494
01:14:49.000 --> 01:14:53.119
you watch CNN and they're just good point. But you

1495
01:14:53.119 --> 01:14:55.560
watch CNN, they're just beating the crap out of Trump.

1496
01:14:55.600 --> 01:14:57.279
They just can't let it go. And you go over

1497
01:14:57.319 --> 01:15:01.039
to Fox and they're just beating the crap on Biden.

1498
01:15:01.119 --> 01:15:02.680
And I had a run on the treadmill that I

1499
01:15:02.680 --> 01:15:05.560
was facing CNN two so the other day, and all

1500
01:15:05.560 --> 01:15:08.159
they were talking about is how Trump insulted Harris, and

1501
01:15:08.279 --> 01:15:11.079
Trump insaulted Harris, and that was laid on the TV.

1502
01:15:11.319 --> 01:15:15.039
The entire thirty minute segment just Trump insulted Harris. And

1503
01:15:15.079 --> 01:15:17.439
it's like, okay, but the left is insulting the right also,

1504
01:15:17.560 --> 01:15:19.319
So everybody just sucks.

1505
01:15:19.479 --> 01:15:21.800
You know what the Tucson Racket Club does in their gym,

1506
01:15:22.000 --> 01:15:23.399
But they have a bunch of TVs and they have

1507
01:15:23.520 --> 01:15:25.880
signs all over, so it's no politics.

1508
01:15:25.880 --> 01:15:28.239
Please, Well, how are you going to have TV's with

1509
01:15:28.319 --> 01:15:29.279
no politics?

1510
01:15:29.760 --> 01:15:34.399
You can put on, put on doctor Phil what's your

1511
01:15:34.439 --> 01:15:36.880
judge Judy show that you like, what if.

1512
01:15:36.600 --> 01:15:38.399
I get far enough, if I get far enough to

1513
01:15:38.439 --> 01:15:40.399
the to the this is kind of interesting because I

1514
01:15:40.560 --> 01:15:42.680
get far enough to the left and the treadmills, I

1515
01:15:42.680 --> 01:15:46.319
can get to the ESPN. Yeah, they had to go

1516
01:15:46.399 --> 01:15:47.279
far left to get the.

1517
01:15:48.840 --> 01:15:50.640
But I mean at the other day, it's like if

1518
01:15:51.119 --> 01:15:54.359
like what we're saying is the markets respond to different things,

1519
01:15:54.479 --> 01:15:57.199
not so much the noise in the media. It's just

1520
01:15:57.199 --> 01:15:58.920
a lot of it right now because we've got the election.

1521
01:15:58.720 --> 01:15:59.520
In three months, yep.

1522
01:15:59.560 --> 01:16:01.960
But I mean it's more what's going on with the FED,

1523
01:16:02.000 --> 01:16:03.960
what's going on in the actual economy, what's going on

1524
01:16:04.000 --> 01:16:06.640
with these inflation numbers and everything like that. The retail

1525
01:16:06.720 --> 01:16:08.479
sales came out better last week and that's why the

1526
01:16:08.479 --> 01:16:09.359
markets went up.

1527
01:16:09.520 --> 01:16:10.880
And it's all of that.

1528
01:16:11.119 --> 01:16:12.600
But if it is stuff that makes you nervous and

1529
01:16:12.680 --> 01:16:15.560
you don't know what's going on, or you're just concerned

1530
01:16:15.600 --> 01:16:18.560
about the future and you haven't set anything up, come

1531
01:16:18.600 --> 01:16:20.279
see us and we'll do a financial plan with you.

1532
01:16:20.359 --> 01:16:22.520
We talk about what we do with the financial plan

1533
01:16:22.560 --> 01:16:24.720
all the time, how it's all free and complementary. We're

1534
01:16:24.720 --> 01:16:26.680
here to help and we're here to ease your mind

1535
01:16:26.680 --> 01:16:29.800
if you have any worries, especially going into the next

1536
01:16:29.800 --> 01:16:32.840
few months, because that's all if you watch an ATV,

1537
01:16:32.960 --> 01:16:33.600
that's all it is.

1538
01:16:33.800 --> 01:16:34.000
Yeah.

1539
01:16:34.079 --> 01:16:35.640
Like I said earlier in the show, most of the

1540
01:16:35.640 --> 01:16:38.840
people that have done the financial plans weren't the ones

1541
01:16:38.880 --> 01:16:40.960
giving us a call when this market is started to

1542
01:16:41.039 --> 01:16:44.399
drop because they understood what the risks were to begin with.

1543
01:16:44.479 --> 01:16:46.720
They saw what their plan would look like if something

1544
01:16:46.760 --> 01:16:48.840
bad was it happened, and obviously it wasn't that bad.

1545
01:16:48.880 --> 01:16:51.760
I mean we only went down like ten percent a couple.

1546
01:16:51.960 --> 01:16:54.800
That's nothing, right. It can eventually go down thirty to

1547
01:16:54.880 --> 01:16:55.800
forty percent.

1548
01:16:56.439 --> 01:16:57.039
Yeah, exactly.

1549
01:16:57.119 --> 01:16:59.000
But us being patient, and we've been able to be

1550
01:16:59.039 --> 01:17:00.680
patient because we've been able to use the money market

1551
01:17:00.720 --> 01:17:02.720
funds and just have cash on the side, because we

1552
01:17:02.760 --> 01:17:05.720
are being cautious this last year, because economy does seem

1553
01:17:05.760 --> 01:17:08.039
a little fragile when it has seven stocks running it

1554
01:17:08.720 --> 01:17:11.159
that downturn, those three days of downturns. We use this

1555
01:17:11.199 --> 01:17:13.439
buying opportunities because we had cash on the side. We

1556
01:17:13.479 --> 01:17:16.800
haven't just sat there and been fully invested. We've been

1557
01:17:16.880 --> 01:17:18.960
ready to go and this was an opportunity to buy

1558
01:17:18.960 --> 01:17:22.199
things or were average prices get people into stocks that

1559
01:17:22.199 --> 01:17:24.399
we haven't been able to because they've just been running

1560
01:17:24.479 --> 01:17:25.720
up and they come back down to earth a bit,

1561
01:17:25.760 --> 01:17:27.960
we start a position. It allowed us to do that,

1562
01:17:28.039 --> 01:17:30.800
and it's nice. And then I mean it's not gonna last.

1563
01:17:30.960 --> 01:17:33.239
If that starts lowering rates, the money markets race are

1564
01:17:33.239 --> 01:17:34.079
going to go down as well.

1565
01:17:34.880 --> 01:17:37.199
And we talked about the multi year guaranteed annuity as

1566
01:17:37.279 --> 01:17:39.880
being a good place for some safe money, but also

1567
01:17:39.960 --> 01:17:41.840
a lot of people when they get scared, they try

1568
01:17:41.840 --> 01:17:44.880
to go into like the fixed index annuities. And there's

1569
01:17:44.960 --> 01:17:48.479
new products on the marketplace onto the stock side with

1570
01:17:48.560 --> 01:17:52.840
ETFs where you can get capped ETFs where they're designed

1571
01:17:52.880 --> 01:17:55.800
to protect you against any loss. And then there you

1572
01:17:55.840 --> 01:17:58.119
have a cap where you can participate with the S

1573
01:17:58.159 --> 01:18:00.319
and P NAS deck small cap up into a certain

1574
01:18:00.359 --> 01:18:03.000
cap right and right now it ranges around eight percent

1575
01:18:03.039 --> 01:18:06.000
that you can participate up to and then on in theory,

1576
01:18:06.079 --> 01:18:09.880
you have no downside, and so that's how this product's designed.

1577
01:18:10.199 --> 01:18:13.960
And you're not stuck in an annuity with surrender penalties.

1578
01:18:14.000 --> 01:18:16.079
You can sell out of it at any time because

1579
01:18:16.119 --> 01:18:18.239
it's an ETF, you're not subject to stay in it

1580
01:18:18.279 --> 01:18:20.840
for any amount of time, and so those are an

1581
01:18:20.960 --> 01:18:24.159
other way where some people were like, they're worried about

1582
01:18:24.159 --> 01:18:26.359
what's going to happen with the markets, but they still

1583
01:18:26.359 --> 01:18:29.199
want to have some type of participation. That's another way

1584
01:18:29.239 --> 01:18:32.000
to keep invested without having to worry about a big drop.

1585
01:18:32.399 --> 01:18:35.560
So it's not an insurance product at all, No, it's

1586
01:18:35.880 --> 01:18:37.920
strictly an ETF YTF.

1587
01:18:38.000 --> 01:18:41.600
It uses derivatives and options to generate this cap product,

1588
01:18:41.640 --> 01:18:46.520
which is essentially what the insurance companies do themselves themselves.

1589
01:18:46.520 --> 01:18:48.800
They use options, but more so private bonds and things

1590
01:18:48.920 --> 01:18:49.199
like that.

1591
01:18:49.720 --> 01:18:51.920
It's also been a huge tool for us to protect

1592
01:18:51.960 --> 01:18:53.800
some gains in positions, right yeah.

1593
01:18:53.880 --> 01:18:56.039
I mean, if you have a gain that's up seventeen

1594
01:18:56.039 --> 01:18:58.479
percent of the year and you go into that product

1595
01:18:58.800 --> 01:19:02.399
before this selloff, don't you don't experience that drop the

1596
01:19:02.399 --> 01:19:04.640
same way everyone else did. So in theory, it's a

1597
01:19:04.640 --> 01:19:06.239
good way where if you have some gains that you

1598
01:19:06.279 --> 01:19:08.640
want to protect for the rest but still participate if

1599
01:19:08.840 --> 01:19:11.079
it keeps going higher, you can put it in there too.

1600
01:19:11.239 --> 01:19:15.720
So it's a great flexible designed ETF where you don't

1601
01:19:15.760 --> 01:19:17.680
have you can make a five or ten percent position

1602
01:19:17.720 --> 01:19:19.520
of the portfolio, don't have to be more than that,

1603
01:19:19.600 --> 01:19:21.600
but it's a way to protect some of it as

1604
01:19:21.680 --> 01:19:25.039
long along with our SDS position that we are thinking

1605
01:19:25.119 --> 01:19:27.279
about potentially putting on here when we hit new all

1606
01:19:27.319 --> 01:19:30.520
time highs. So we'll look at how the economy's coming

1607
01:19:30.520 --> 01:19:33.199
out and all that. But that's you know, we're constantly

1608
01:19:33.239 --> 01:19:34.640
looking at how to mitigate.

1609
01:19:34.359 --> 01:19:36.479
Risk, and that is the beauty of being an independent

1610
01:19:36.760 --> 01:19:39.880
investment firm. We have the ability to invest in vehicles

1611
01:19:39.960 --> 01:19:43.399
like sds, like those cap ets you're talking about. We're

1612
01:19:43.439 --> 01:19:47.399
not constrained to a handful of mutual funds or any

1613
01:19:47.600 --> 01:19:49.199
or ets because we're in a big company.

1614
01:19:49.239 --> 01:19:52.079
To that point, you know what I found out this week.

1615
01:19:52.199 --> 01:19:54.680
If you are a Vanguard colin, I cannot buy a

1616
01:19:54.680 --> 01:19:57.760
bitcoin ETF right now, not yet, not yet.

1617
01:19:57.760 --> 01:19:59.359
Because they don't offer it and they just want you to.

1618
01:19:59.600 --> 01:20:01.439
We talked about this a couple of weeks ago where

1619
01:20:01.439 --> 01:20:04.399
Morgan Stanley was going to be the first major investment

1620
01:20:04.479 --> 01:20:08.199
firm to allow their brokers to buy a bitcoin ETF.

1621
01:20:08.279 --> 01:20:10.840
We've had bitcoin ETFs and closed in funds here for

1622
01:20:10.960 --> 01:20:15.760
years because not because we're gamblers, but because certain clients

1623
01:20:15.800 --> 01:20:16.279
wanted them.

1624
01:20:16.359 --> 01:20:18.199
Yeah, we have the ability to invest in them, we're

1625
01:20:18.199 --> 01:20:21.279
not constrained by these large wirehouses.

1626
01:20:21.920 --> 01:20:23.640
And one of the things that Todd was talking about

1627
01:20:23.680 --> 01:20:25.600
on at ETF, it'll be interesting to see what they

1628
01:20:25.680 --> 01:20:28.279
do with the caps as interest rates move up and down,

1629
01:20:28.560 --> 01:20:31.479
because because that's one of the that's one of the

1630
01:20:31.520 --> 01:20:35.479
dirty little secret subannuity companies is that you right now

1631
01:20:35.520 --> 01:20:38.000
you might be able to buy an annuity that will

1632
01:20:38.039 --> 01:20:41.359
allow you ten percent participation in the S and P

1633
01:20:41.520 --> 01:20:46.000
five hundred with no downside. You're thinking, Okay, that sounds reasonable,

1634
01:20:46.359 --> 01:20:48.359
and then you get your renewal notice in a year.

1635
01:20:48.439 --> 01:20:52.000
Guess what that cap is now seven? And then a

1636
01:20:52.039 --> 01:20:54.800
year later that cap is four. That's the most you

1637
01:20:54.840 --> 01:20:57.079
can make. They can change that whenever they want.

1638
01:20:57.439 --> 01:20:58.680
They have legal abilities.

1639
01:20:58.880 --> 01:21:01.520
Yeah. Absolutely, and and that nobody ever tells you that

1640
01:21:01.640 --> 01:21:03.560
going in when you think, Okay, I'm going to get

1641
01:21:03.560 --> 01:21:07.199
this annuity is a ten percent upside no downside worked

1642
01:21:07.239 --> 01:21:10.560
for me? Guess what that is? Not something you're locking in.

1643
01:21:10.680 --> 01:21:13.159
And that goes back to the independency that when we're

1644
01:21:13.239 --> 01:21:17.079
looking for an annuity, we ask the provider saying, all right,

1645
01:21:17.119 --> 01:21:19.479
how many times in the history have they lowered the rates?

1646
01:21:19.920 --> 01:21:22.079
And there's certain companies that have a history of doing that.

1647
01:21:22.079 --> 01:21:24.119
There certain companies that don't right, and a lot of

1648
01:21:24.119 --> 01:21:26.439
it has to do with their financial rating. Someone who's

1649
01:21:26.520 --> 01:21:29.079
really strong on their finances don't have to lower the

1650
01:21:29.119 --> 01:21:31.399
rates because they can meet the obligations, or someone who

1651
01:21:31.439 --> 01:21:33.800
can't has to keep lowering them for their business to

1652
01:21:33.800 --> 01:21:36.760
stay alive. And so finding the right company right is

1653
01:21:36.960 --> 01:21:39.359
the first and then finding the right product with that company,

1654
01:21:39.840 --> 01:21:42.920
and then ultimately it depends on the interest rate environment,

1655
01:21:42.960 --> 01:21:45.079
because if you buy annuity right now, it will be

1656
01:21:45.159 --> 01:21:47.119
a lot better than what it was five years ago,

1657
01:21:47.199 --> 01:21:50.760
because interest rates were nothing five years ago. Now they're

1658
01:21:50.760 --> 01:21:52.680
a way higher. So the new companies can offer you

1659
01:21:52.720 --> 01:21:54.640
a lot more than what they used to. So they've

1660
01:21:54.680 --> 01:21:56.960
been probably better now than they were in the last

1661
01:21:56.960 --> 01:22:00.880
twenty years, but again they still have a whole host

1662
01:22:00.920 --> 01:22:03.520
of fees. You're locking your money up, so you have

1663
01:22:03.560 --> 01:22:06.199
to make sure that that product is right for you, and.

1664
01:22:06.199 --> 01:22:08.479
You've got to know what you're doing. You really do.

1665
01:22:08.640 --> 01:22:13.279
I mean it's people put out books about annuities. Come

1666
01:22:13.319 --> 01:22:15.479
see us if you're interested in We don't do a

1667
01:22:15.479 --> 01:22:20.600
lot of annuities, but we're very knowledgeable about annuities. We

1668
01:22:21.039 --> 01:22:24.680
did one just today actually our Friday actually, so it's

1669
01:22:24.720 --> 01:22:26.680
not that we don't do them, it's just not one

1670
01:22:26.720 --> 01:22:30.279
of our major products. But we do no annuities inside

1671
01:22:30.319 --> 01:22:32.920
and out, and we know what they're all about.

1672
01:22:33.000 --> 01:22:34.960
And it goes back to the financial plan. In order

1673
01:22:34.960 --> 01:22:37.159
for us to see if an annuity makes sense for you,

1674
01:22:37.439 --> 01:22:39.520
we really need to do a financial plan to see

1675
01:22:39.560 --> 01:22:42.479
your whole host of obligations that you need each month,

1676
01:22:42.479 --> 01:22:44.880
and then what the income coming in, what your liquid

1677
01:22:44.880 --> 01:22:47.039
asset base is, because you don't want to put too

1678
01:22:47.079 --> 01:22:49.720
much of your liquid base into any liquid annuity.

1679
01:22:50.039 --> 01:22:52.760
So with a gal whose husband passed away and the

1680
01:22:52.800 --> 01:22:55.880
employer was offering her a payment so much per month

1681
01:22:56.079 --> 01:22:59.600
for life, but with no death benefit, so she decided

1682
01:22:59.640 --> 01:23:01.680
to take that and a year from now got run

1683
01:23:01.680 --> 01:23:05.119
over by a bus. It's gone. Everything's gone. So we

1684
01:23:05.119 --> 01:23:07.560
were able to put her into an annuity that would guarantee

1685
01:23:07.600 --> 01:23:10.359
her that same amount of income, but with a fifteen

1686
01:23:10.439 --> 01:23:13.000
year or death benefit. So if something happened during the

1687
01:23:13.039 --> 01:23:16.800
next fifteen years, somebody is going to get something. We'll

1688
01:23:16.800 --> 01:23:19.119
be back with the final segment of the Money Matters

1689
01:23:19.159 --> 01:23:22.880
Show after this break. We once again appreciate you joining

1690
01:23:22.960 --> 01:23:26.760
us on this Sunday morning. Welcome back. This is the

1691
01:23:26.760 --> 01:23:29.479
Money Matter Show. This is the final segment. We appreciate

1692
01:23:29.520 --> 01:23:32.960
you joining us on this Sunday morning and looking forward

1693
01:23:33.000 --> 01:23:37.359
to shorter days and cool and longer nights and cooler temperatures.

1694
01:23:37.359 --> 01:23:40.199
And we're getting there. We're getting there. You know, we're

1695
01:23:40.199 --> 01:23:42.840
getting to the middle of August here, so we're getting.

1696
01:23:42.800 --> 01:23:44.479
We're getting through the toughest time of the year.

1697
01:23:44.520 --> 01:23:45.920
I can see the finish line from here.

1698
01:23:46.000 --> 01:23:47.760
The toughest time of the year is where the only

1699
01:23:47.800 --> 01:23:50.800
thing on is Major League Baseball in the Little League

1700
01:23:50.800 --> 01:23:52.279
World Series. It's it's just a tough time.

1701
01:23:52.279 --> 01:23:53.800
We love the Little League World Series.

1702
01:23:53.640 --> 01:23:56.319
You do, but most people don't really care. And it's

1703
01:23:56.479 --> 01:23:58.640
it's tough until you get to the football season. Then

1704
01:23:58.680 --> 01:23:59.880
life just gets a little brighter.

1705
01:24:00.039 --> 01:24:03.760
There's no more pure enjoyment than the Little League World

1706
01:24:03.800 --> 01:24:06.000
Series there is. It's football.

1707
01:24:06.359 --> 01:24:08.039
I get it, I get I get it.

1708
01:24:08.079 --> 01:24:08.840
Is amazing.

1709
01:24:08.960 --> 01:24:11.279
Yeah, there's no there's no feeling like that first Sunday.

1710
01:24:11.319 --> 01:24:16.680
And we got two coaches here that on what the thirty.

1711
01:24:16.279 --> 01:24:18.680
First game is the thirtieth or Tucson High.

1712
01:24:18.680 --> 01:24:20.640
If you want to go out and support them, it

1713
01:24:20.720 --> 01:24:22.359
will not will it be it's going.

1714
01:24:22.319 --> 01:24:22.800
To be a Phoenix.

1715
01:24:23.079 --> 01:24:24.039
This first one's in Phoenix.

1716
01:24:24.119 --> 01:24:27.119
Second game of the year will be at home sixth.

1717
01:24:27.239 --> 01:24:31.600
Then the first NFL game regular season game September eighth.

1718
01:24:31.880 --> 01:24:32.720
I think that's right.

1719
01:24:33.159 --> 01:24:36.439
Yep, day after day after my birthday, I'll be a

1720
01:24:36.520 --> 01:24:37.239
year old ball.

1721
01:24:37.319 --> 01:24:39.319
Yep. That starts soon. Football starting up.

1722
01:24:39.920 --> 01:24:43.680
There's a better time, which brings us into DraftKings, right, DraftKings.

1723
01:24:44.960 --> 01:24:46.680
This is a great time of the year for DraftKings.

1724
01:24:47.159 --> 01:24:47.840
You guys, you.

1725
01:24:47.800 --> 01:24:49.960
Guys called this, you guys called this a couple of

1726
01:24:49.960 --> 01:24:50.439
months ago.

1727
01:24:51.079 --> 01:24:54.239
Well it yeah, well we haven't started anything. Yeah, we

1728
01:24:54.319 --> 01:24:56.800
knew we had to wait through summer, right, but now

1729
01:24:56.920 --> 01:24:58.319
is it? I think it's where you start to look

1730
01:24:58.359 --> 01:24:58.600
at it.

1731
01:24:58.640 --> 01:24:59.600
Well, we could think about it.

1732
01:24:59.600 --> 01:25:01.760
So you got to NFL starting, you have playoff baseball,

1733
01:25:01.800 --> 01:25:04.159
you have NBA starting in October, you have NHL starting

1734
01:25:04.159 --> 01:25:07.760
in October, and then you have college basketball starting in

1735
01:25:07.760 --> 01:25:09.079
like October, November something like that.

1736
01:25:09.119 --> 01:25:10.600
At one point you're gonna have five sports.

1737
01:25:10.359 --> 01:25:14.079
Going, right, But what about Flutter Yeah, the same thing.

1738
01:25:16.159 --> 01:25:19.600
Yeah, well, I mean, I racing is my guess, a.

1739
01:25:19.520 --> 01:25:21.800
Little bit of Olympics, right, But well they also have

1740
01:25:22.319 --> 01:25:24.920
Flutter has horse racing fan, do you go on? You

1741
01:25:24.960 --> 01:25:26.680
can do a whole horse racing thing across the world.

1742
01:25:27.000 --> 01:25:29.039
So I'm thinking that might be the caveat as the

1743
01:25:29.079 --> 01:25:30.920
DraftKings does not have that as much.

1744
01:25:31.319 --> 01:25:33.720
Now, that would have been report for the quarter ending

1745
01:25:33.880 --> 01:25:38.600
June thirtieth, which would not have included the Olympics exactly right, right.

1746
01:25:38.520 --> 01:25:42.960
Yeah, during that quarter they had the two horse, right,

1747
01:25:43.000 --> 01:25:45.039
they had the Kentucky Derby, they have the Triple Crown,

1748
01:25:45.039 --> 01:25:47.560
the could Preakness in the Belmont Stakes, and then they

1749
01:25:47.560 --> 01:25:49.359
have races all across the world you can bet on.

1750
01:25:49.560 --> 01:25:51.319
So so maybe that's the difference.

1751
01:25:51.319 --> 01:25:54.079
There also just a bigger company. I think Flutter owns

1752
01:25:54.079 --> 01:25:56.239
more things. I forget exactly what, but I know they

1753
01:25:56.239 --> 01:25:58.279
have other stuff under their umbrella.

1754
01:25:58.399 --> 01:26:00.439
Can you gamble on a Little League World? Serious?

1755
01:26:00.960 --> 01:26:03.920
I don't bet on anything that I have a long

1756
01:26:04.000 --> 01:26:04.760
history of losing.

1757
01:26:06.079 --> 01:26:07.079
I don't think you could.

1758
01:26:06.880 --> 01:26:09.640
Bet on little leg I don't know. I haven't ever looked.

1759
01:26:09.720 --> 01:26:11.920
I can't imagine. I can't imagine that. You can't. I

1760
01:26:11.920 --> 01:26:15.159
mean when you bet on everything, right, I can't imagine.

1761
01:26:15.159 --> 01:26:18.920
There's high school games. You can't bet on high school games.

1762
01:26:19.279 --> 01:26:22.680
I can't go on bet on tuson high can't bet

1763
01:26:22.680 --> 01:26:23.479
on high school stuff?

1764
01:26:23.479 --> 01:26:25.279
Well, you wouldn't be allowed to be doing a p

1765
01:26:25.520 --> 01:26:31.880
rose available rose over there? What's going on here? How

1766
01:26:31.920 --> 01:26:34.600
about the government? How about the government solution to Google?

1767
01:26:34.640 --> 01:26:35.760
They will break them up? Right?

1768
01:26:36.199 --> 01:26:37.159
Yeah, what is that about?

1769
01:26:37.319 --> 01:26:40.279
Well you could you know, the government's looking to break

1770
01:26:40.319 --> 01:26:43.039
up the tech John, there is one solution to the monopoly.

1771
01:26:43.079 --> 01:26:46.359
A judge ruled that they have created right, they had

1772
01:26:46.359 --> 01:26:48.399
a court case and a judge ruled they have created

1773
01:26:48.399 --> 01:26:51.399
a monopoly. Kramer says that some of the parks is

1774
01:26:51.399 --> 01:26:54.920
worth more than the whole, so it could enhance shareholder value.

1775
01:26:54.920 --> 01:26:57.840
But you know, no one wants the government involved in

1776
01:26:57.920 --> 01:27:04.039
their business. Whatever you do, and whatever you do, don't

1777
01:27:04.359 --> 01:27:07.159
don't run your business better than anybody else, or you're

1778
01:27:07.159 --> 01:27:10.079
going to have big problems, right right.

1779
01:27:09.960 --> 01:27:12.920
I mean, Standard Oil is an example of being a monopoly.

1780
01:27:12.960 --> 01:27:15.319
That one of the most famous breakups in the history

1781
01:27:15.319 --> 01:27:17.680
of our country. Another one is the AT and T.

1782
01:27:18.079 --> 01:27:20.840
AT and T was amazing and we had I was

1783
01:27:20.880 --> 01:27:23.840
a broker back then, and we had a sheet that

1784
01:27:23.880 --> 01:27:26.199
how a whole sheet that he had to fill out

1785
01:27:26.199 --> 01:27:28.520
when somebody had the AT and T to to help

1786
01:27:28.600 --> 01:27:32.359
us determine what the cost basis was. Uh, this, this

1787
01:27:32.399 --> 01:27:35.600
percentage goes to the company, this percentage goes to that company.

1788
01:27:35.720 --> 01:27:37.960
And then those companies started breaking up and it was,

1789
01:27:38.039 --> 01:27:39.560
oh my goodness, what it was.

1790
01:27:39.600 --> 01:27:41.800
Really the biggest three of the standard oil, the railroads,

1791
01:27:41.840 --> 01:27:44.159
and then the AT and T. Yeah, I think so

1792
01:27:44.199 --> 01:27:45.680
Google would be probably up there.

1793
01:27:45.800 --> 01:27:48.439
So if the deal, if the DOJ moves forward with

1794
01:27:48.479 --> 01:27:51.039
the plan of the company's androids operating system and Chrome

1795
01:27:51.079 --> 01:27:55.159
Browser could be targeted for investments. What exactly does that meaning.

1796
01:27:55.119 --> 01:27:59.159
That has to be the owner. Google would still have

1797
01:27:59.479 --> 01:28:02.520
like ownership rights, but they went and be the they

1798
01:28:02.600 --> 01:28:04.680
have to sell it off. So as they sell it off,

1799
01:28:04.680 --> 01:28:07.000
they get less and less owners. They don't control it control.

1800
01:28:08.279 --> 01:28:09.880
I saw this last week. This is and we talked

1801
01:28:09.920 --> 01:28:13.479
a little bit about Shelter. The hottest real estate market

1802
01:28:13.520 --> 01:28:16.000
in the country. Right, the hottest real estate markets in

1803
01:28:16.039 --> 01:28:21.479
the country. You think La San Francisco, Seattle, Sun Belt, Austin, Texas, Right,

1804
01:28:21.600 --> 01:28:29.520
maybe Florida. How about Oshkosh, Wisconsin number one? Oshkosh, Wisconsin.

1805
01:28:29.560 --> 01:28:34.720
Now full disclosure. The measure of what is the hottest

1806
01:28:35.079 --> 01:28:39.560
is the number of real estate inquiries versus the amount

1807
01:28:39.640 --> 01:28:44.319
of inventory. So I'm thinking, in the case of Oshkosh, Wisconsin,

1808
01:28:44.399 --> 01:28:48.239
which is a town of about sixty thousand people, that

1809
01:28:48.239 --> 01:28:51.199
they're probably not building a lot of new houses. I

1810
01:28:51.199 --> 01:28:53.119
don't know, I don't know. May there may not be

1811
01:28:53.119 --> 01:28:56.319
in a builder concentrated on Oshkosh Wi County.

1812
01:28:56.399 --> 01:28:58.720
People versus even twos on being a small town. We

1813
01:28:58.720 --> 01:29:01.039
have a million, sure, sure, probably way more than a

1814
01:29:01.039 --> 01:29:01.720
million at this point.

1815
01:29:01.760 --> 01:29:04.479
So sure, yeah, well yeah, way more. They'll drive around.

1816
01:29:04.479 --> 01:29:08.319
That's how you like that. But isn't that interesting Oshkosh, Wisconsin.

1817
01:29:08.520 --> 01:29:13.239
But again, Hartford, Connecticut's number two, Manchester, New Hampshire number three, Rockford,

1818
01:29:13.239 --> 01:29:14.199
Illinois number four.

1819
01:29:14.439 --> 01:29:16.479
So none of the places that there's not a lot

1820
01:29:16.520 --> 01:29:17.279
of inventory.

1821
01:29:17.840 --> 01:29:20.199
I think that's I think that's it. I think there's

1822
01:29:20.279 --> 01:29:24.600
just whatever demand there is, there just is no inventory.

1823
01:29:24.119 --> 01:29:24.560
To meet it.

1824
01:29:24.880 --> 01:29:27.199
So as I looked at the list and looked at

1825
01:29:27.199 --> 01:29:31.840
the names, I thought, that's gotta be because of no inventory. Interesting,

1826
01:29:32.199 --> 01:29:36.000
you know, Palo Alto Networks the two of the biggest

1827
01:29:36.000 --> 01:29:40.800
cybersecurity country companies, CrowdStrike and Palo Alto. Right, Paloto's up

1828
01:29:40.800 --> 01:29:43.560
eighty excuse me eight percent in the last ninety days.

1829
01:29:43.600 --> 01:29:46.960
You think they'd be up more with CrowdStrike, blown up

1830
01:29:48.039 --> 01:29:53.439
with their meltdown, but down three percent this past Friday. Ever,

1831
01:29:53.680 --> 01:29:56.760
course Securities put a short term sell on the stairs,

1832
01:29:57.239 --> 01:30:02.600
saying they're expecting earnings on Monday could be disappointing. Guidance

1833
01:30:02.640 --> 01:30:04.800
could be disappointing. They're going to a short term style.

1834
01:30:04.840 --> 01:30:07.600
I'm thinking, gosh, I don't know how it gets much better.

1835
01:30:07.960 --> 01:30:10.359
That's why sometimes we just go for the ETF. I mean,

1836
01:30:10.479 --> 01:30:12.800
this is a perfect example. I personally was looking at

1837
01:30:13.079 --> 01:30:16.039
getting into that cybersecurity space. I was looking at pan

1838
01:30:16.279 --> 01:30:20.039
W Palo Alto, and I was looking at CrowdStrike. After

1839
01:30:20.079 --> 01:30:22.479
the big sell off, I thought, instead, why don't I

1840
01:30:22.560 --> 01:30:25.119
just get the cyber at et F. Yeah, I e ar,

1841
01:30:25.359 --> 01:30:27.159
you know what that performed last week? Six and a

1842
01:30:27.199 --> 01:30:27.720
half percent?

1843
01:30:27.760 --> 01:30:29.439
Oh yeah, double double pant.

1844
01:30:29.760 --> 01:30:31.279
Why do I need to go pick a stock on?

1845
01:30:31.359 --> 01:30:33.359
You don't need to, No, And I think that's I

1846
01:30:33.399 --> 01:30:35.000
think that's a really good point. If you want to

1847
01:30:35.039 --> 01:30:36.439
be in oil, or you want to be in gold,

1848
01:30:36.520 --> 01:30:38.760
or you want to be whatever, whatever it is, there

1849
01:30:38.880 --> 01:30:40.920
is a NETF for everything.

1850
01:30:40.439 --> 01:30:44.640
And sometimes we work inversely on that. Right, like the

1851
01:30:44.880 --> 01:30:47.239
first Solar, for example, we were looking at the Tan's

1852
01:30:47.319 --> 01:30:49.800
for the Solar ETF.

1853
01:30:49.800 --> 01:30:51.600
That was a real good call, and you guys just parked.

1854
01:30:51.600 --> 01:30:53.680
You looked at that Tan T a N because you

1855
01:30:53.720 --> 01:30:55.279
thought Solar was going to be a good place to.

1856
01:30:55.520 --> 01:30:59.920
One company first Solar was outperforming and vertically integrated, responsible

1857
01:30:59.920 --> 01:31:02.920
for all moving parts of their business. Thought that was

1858
01:31:02.960 --> 01:31:03.960
a way better bet than the.

1859
01:31:04.159 --> 01:31:05.920
Well you threw a part that ETF and found out

1860
01:31:05.920 --> 01:31:08.439
there's one company, there's only one good company in the

1861
01:31:08.560 --> 01:31:11.319
entire ETF, and you bought that company, which you did

1862
01:31:11.359 --> 01:31:16.079
great on versus the ETF. I'm guessing it probably it's

1863
01:31:16.159 --> 01:31:18.680
better to own Starbucks and to own a coffee ETF.

1864
01:31:20.760 --> 01:31:23.239
With a twenty five percent pop last week, And if.

1865
01:31:23.119 --> 01:31:26.279
You're someone who was worried through this recent market drop

1866
01:31:26.319 --> 01:31:28.680
that we had, that's pretty much a sign that you

1867
01:31:28.720 --> 01:31:31.760
need to revisit your risk tolerance with your current portfolio,

1868
01:31:31.920 --> 01:31:33.680
because in theory, you should not be worried by a

1869
01:31:33.720 --> 01:31:37.680
ten percent drop if you were stomach. I mean, obviously,

1870
01:31:37.680 --> 01:31:39.680
if you're a conservative person you asked for not to

1871
01:31:39.720 --> 01:31:41.560
have a ten percent drop, you would probably only be

1872
01:31:41.600 --> 01:31:44.319
in treasuries or something like that because the markets can

1873
01:31:44.359 --> 01:31:47.000
easily do that to you. But if you are someone

1874
01:31:47.000 --> 01:31:51.039
who's anyway balanced oriented, growth oriented, you should not have

1875
01:31:51.239 --> 01:31:55.359
worried too much about that drop, because no, it happens, right,

1876
01:31:55.399 --> 01:31:57.760
and so if you were, that's a sign that you

1877
01:31:57.760 --> 01:32:00.640
need to revisit your risk tolerance. You can easily come in.

1878
01:32:00.720 --> 01:32:02.520
We'll do it for free with you. It's just us

1879
01:32:02.560 --> 01:32:06.239
sending you a seven to ten question online questionnaire. You

1880
01:32:06.359 --> 01:32:08.199
answer it, we'll get a notice back, and then we

1881
01:32:08.239 --> 01:32:10.560
can even if you want to send us your statement,

1882
01:32:11.479 --> 01:32:15.279
or if you have your accounts here, we can easily

1883
01:32:15.680 --> 01:32:18.680
match those scores up to see if you're overly risky,

1884
01:32:18.920 --> 01:32:21.960
if you're not risky enough. Those are the type of

1885
01:32:22.199 --> 01:32:24.119
things that we need to have a discussion about now,

1886
01:32:24.319 --> 01:32:27.760
not after you have a thirty percent drop. You had

1887
01:32:27.760 --> 01:32:28.600
a test run, right.

1888
01:32:28.800 --> 01:32:32.039
A ten percent drop is nothing. I mean, it happens annually.

1889
01:32:32.520 --> 01:32:35.800
We see one literally every year. We just haven't felt

1890
01:32:35.800 --> 01:32:37.399
it in a while, and we haven't had one in

1891
01:32:37.439 --> 01:32:39.960
a year. We had it was a ten percent tech correction,

1892
01:32:40.039 --> 01:32:41.720
but it wasn't a ten percent S and P five

1893
01:32:41.760 --> 01:32:44.880
hundred correction, but it was real close. It was real close.

1894
01:32:45.000 --> 01:32:48.520
So we're just about to we're just about to the

1895
01:32:48.600 --> 01:32:50.960
end of the show. Anybody had there have any words

1896
01:32:50.960 --> 01:32:52.000
of wisdom for the.

1897
01:32:52.159 --> 01:32:54.960
Yeah, I mean it's really with that be nervous about

1898
01:32:54.960 --> 01:32:57.359
a ten percent drop if you're getting close to retirement

1899
01:32:57.439 --> 01:32:59.039
or in retirement and that really scared you a couple

1900
01:32:59.039 --> 01:33:01.840
of weeks ago, definitely means you need to revisit your risk.

1901
01:33:01.880 --> 01:33:04.640
If you have ten plus years and you're nervous, you

1902
01:33:04.640 --> 01:33:07.159
need to revisit it. But you also think you have

1903
01:33:07.239 --> 01:33:09.560
more time to come back in that idea if it's

1904
01:33:09.560 --> 01:33:12.520
ten plus years away. So if you got the real

1905
01:33:12.560 --> 01:33:13.840
thing you would have to do is come in and

1906
01:33:13.920 --> 01:33:17.079
understand everything about your investments as to why you were

1907
01:33:17.119 --> 01:33:19.640
so scared. That's more about ten years out. If you're

1908
01:33:19.640 --> 01:33:22.159
ten years or below or closer to the retirement, I

1909
01:33:22.199 --> 01:33:25.560
would say you got to revisit that risk tolerance.

1910
01:33:25.760 --> 01:33:28.239
Well. You also, I think you probably are also paying

1911
01:33:28.239 --> 01:33:31.199
too close of attention to it. Yeah, because one of

1912
01:33:31.239 --> 01:33:33.199
the ways to get through times like that is you

1913
01:33:33.359 --> 01:33:36.760
just stop paying attention to it, because, like Warren Buffet said,

1914
01:33:36.840 --> 01:33:39.520
if you're a long term investor, it doesn't matter. It

1915
01:33:39.560 --> 01:33:40.199
doesn't matter.

1916
01:33:40.439 --> 01:33:42.520
Well, as we come down to the Endshaw give everyone

1917
01:33:42.520 --> 01:33:46.199
a quick update. My marathon was successful. Ranted up in

1918
01:33:46.279 --> 01:33:49.720
Washington State and ran two hours forty five minutes in

1919
01:33:49.760 --> 01:33:53.119
eighteen seconds, which is about a six minutes and eighteen

1920
01:33:53.159 --> 01:33:57.000
second per mile pace, which qualifies me for sure for

1921
01:33:57.079 --> 01:34:00.479
Boston next year. So I'm officially doing the Boston Marathon

1922
01:34:00.520 --> 01:34:04.039
in April. It'll be fun doing Chicago in October. So

1923
01:34:04.039 --> 01:34:06.199
I'll let you know how those streets looked. It's probably

1924
01:34:06.199 --> 01:34:08.439
gonna look pretty good because they always make it look

1925
01:34:08.439 --> 01:34:12.000
good when major marathons happen, big happens in the city.

1926
01:34:11.760 --> 01:34:13.039
They clean it all up, right.

1927
01:34:13.159 --> 01:34:15.119
Yeah, so I'll probably see the best part of Chicago.

1928
01:34:15.479 --> 01:34:17.399
But I'll let you know how that is.

1929
01:34:17.479 --> 01:34:19.840
Tip my hat to man. He's going to do four

1930
01:34:19.880 --> 01:34:22.119
marathons this sei. It's absolutely yeah.

1931
01:34:22.119 --> 01:34:24.680
I mean that's that's absolutely spectacular. And then he's a

1932
01:34:24.720 --> 01:34:29.399
young man and he's focused and he's serious, and at

1933
01:34:29.720 --> 01:34:32.800
the rate you're improving, we talked about this last week,

1934
01:34:32.840 --> 01:34:35.600
you could on the regio, actually you could actually find

1935
01:34:35.600 --> 01:34:40.039
yourself being in the elite not only running Boston, but

1936
01:34:40.039 --> 01:34:43.680
but being near the top of the of the finishers

1937
01:34:43.760 --> 01:34:46.520
at Boston. That's the goal, which would which would really

1938
01:34:46.560 --> 01:34:50.680
be We're very proud of you and very impressed by

1939
01:34:50.720 --> 01:34:54.000
what you're doing and I can't imagine running one hundred

1940
01:34:54.079 --> 01:34:59.960
yards at that pace, So go go, go figure anyway,

1941
01:35:00.039 --> 01:35:02.760
we appreciate you joining us. We all want to be happy.

1942
01:35:03.560 --> 01:35:05.439
We all want to be healthy, because if we're not healthy,

1943
01:35:05.479 --> 01:35:08.000
we're not happy. And at Greenberg Financial one we're trying

1944
01:35:08.000 --> 01:35:15.920
to be is profitable. See you next week.

1945
01:35:18.319 --> 01:35:20.680
You're like the child with a smile.