Aug. 4, 2024

"Recession Fears & Market Shifts: Tech Earnings & Economic Uncertainty"

In this episode of our weekly radio show, we tackle the current economic landscape, including recession fears and worse-than-expected unemployment data. We discuss how these factors are shaping market expectations for rate cuts and the implications as...

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In this episode of our weekly radio show, we tackle the current economic landscape, including recession fears and worse-than-expected unemployment data. We discuss how these factors are shaping market expectations for rate cuts and the implications as we approach election season. Despite declining rates, tech stocks are struggling—could economic pessimism be a factor? We also review recent earnings reports from Apple, Meta, and Intel to gauge their impact. Emphasizing the importance of a solid financial plan, we explore how sticking to your strategy can help you navigate market volatility and avoid letting behavioral biases interfere with your decisions. Plus, we share how we are proactively addressing the recent downturn and positioning ourselves for future opportunities. Tune in for insights and strategies to stay on track in uncertain times.

If you would like to contact us to learn more about our firm and our process call us at 520.544.4909 or go to our website at www.Greenbergfinancial.com or email us at Contact@Greenbergfinancial.com

Transcript
WEBVTT

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Good morning everybody. It's that time once again, Sunday morning,

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eight o'clock right here, seven ninety K and is Tea.

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It's the Moneymatter Show with Dean Greenberg. I I'm so

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happy that you enjoy listening. I'm so happy that you

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learn stuff. I'm so happy that you take what we

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say and get to know us and actually follow through

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and take take us up on our free financial plans.

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We've been busy. We've been busy because the markets have

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been going down and people want to know what's going on.

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We've been busy because mitigating risk is something we do

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and other people don't do. Mitigating risk, understanding the markets

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and being able to handle the volatility as people calling us,

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coming to see us and happy, Oh, that's how we

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handle their accounts. Why. Because it's experience. We've seen this

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happen many times, and that's why we stay in it.

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We allocate, We look for things that are going to

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go up, go down, state quality, and at the end

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of the day, this is a buying opportunity, I believe,

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because they are going to raise interests out lower interest rates.

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And the biggest fear we have now is the fact

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that we might have that recession that people have been

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waiting for for a while. I still think that's going

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to hold off until next year. I still think that

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you have another rally. I still think that this week

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that went down pretty pretty drastically again, bounced off that

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fifty three hundred on the S and P five hundred.

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Remember we were about fifty six fifty. That's three hundred

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and fifty points. That's about seven percent down, and now

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we're ready to look the other way. This is the

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moneymat of show. It is brought to you by green

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Work for an Antier Group, Greenberg for an Ancier Group.

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It's both the registered investment and investorment and investment advisory

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firm and a broken dealer, which means we're a high

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bred firm. On the show, we talk about different products,

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different strategies, different ideas, different input We highly suggest you

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understand risk, Understand the risk to what we say, Understand

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the risks of the markets, Understand the risk tolerance that

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you have so you can navigate through these. This is

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not even a bad one, but it's scary because the

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news media makes it scary. The pundits come on and

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give you all the reasons in the world why it's

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going down. Remember on Friday, it was only a couple

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of days before we rallied up one hundred and somewhat

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points on the S and P. Then we knocked down

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why they've been looking for low and interest rates, they're

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going to get loan on interustrates. Well, now they're saying,

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oh the low and interust rates, maybe the economy is

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not good. That is not why the market went down

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so much so fast. Fear started the ball rolling, and

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then it became technical, and then the headphunds got into selling,

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and then you had the individual mom and pop the

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flour and k person see this and go ahead and

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put in sell orders, and next thing you know, the

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market's tumbled on Friday morning. So for the week, we

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were down over two percent of the Dow, over two

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percent on the SMP, over three percent on NASDAC, over

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seven percent on the rustle two thousand, and only down

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one point seven percent on the equal weighted S and

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P five hundred, called the RSP, which is what we've

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been buying over the last month or two. Why because

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we knew that the SMP was going up so much,

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mostly because of the tech stocks, the seven great stocks. Okay,

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they were going to take a breather. The earnings were

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still good on many of them. Some of them got

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beat up. The earnings were still good on Amazon, but

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it broke down. But I saw the money coming out

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a little bit. Took off some of that. That's the

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idea of taking off some money when these things run

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so much. Google had beat earnings, also went down. Apple

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had good earnings. Apple went up, Meta had great earnings,

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and a stock went up a lot. AMD had a

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great earnings. Stock went up a lot until it only

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fell two days after. But look for the stocks that

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had good earnings and good potential that have fallen. Those

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are the ones you want to try to go back into.

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If you want to do individual stocks, if not do

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the indexes. You want to be a little bit more aggressive.

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You can do two times the index, three times the index,

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if that's what you choose. Understand if it's going to

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be a trade or an investment. If it's an investment,

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then don't do the two or the three. If it's

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a trade that's different, you put in less money. You

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trade it when you look for the opportunity to come out.

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There's all different types of strategies. Obviously, I put strategy

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that we had on when we're hedging. It worked here

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for people that had those on the sds that we

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had on before that we bought back up here, we're

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looking to go ahead and put it on again late

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August into September. If we go up and make a

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new high just because the lower interest rates doesn't mean

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everyone's going to be excited, But it doesn't make sense

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that the markets are so volatile on the same news

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we've had for a while. They've been rallying into the

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fact that the Fed was going to lower interest rates

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for months now now that it's actually probably going to

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happen because they can have actually needed to happen because

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wages went up. I mean unemployment went up. Wages went

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up too, that's not a good thing, but unemployment went up.

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Hiring is basically stopped. Earnings are starting to get have

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some misses. But if you look around, here's what's going

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on on the boots on the on the on the

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on the regular neighborhoods all around the country. People have

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gotten to the point they can't handle inflation. And I

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know you listen and they're saying inflation's coming down, and

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it is coming down. A little bit, but that doesn't

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mean people aren't hurting. Even if it comes down to

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three percent two percent, it's still been up for so

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long that they've been eating into their savings. They've been

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user increasing their credit card debt by forty four percent.

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That means they have to take the money from somewhere

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to pay it. The bit that withdrawals from k's taking

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loans out is becoming very very critical. It's becoming an

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all time high almost of people taking money out on

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a loan from the four one K plan to do what.

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It's not going on vacations. It's to pay the bills.

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People will do what they have to do to pay

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their bills. And that's not the way you grow the economy.

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And you don't grow the economy by just having government jobs.

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For the most part, we need private sector jobs. Those

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are the ones that pay. Those are the ones that

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you know that people going back to work. Government jobs

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are not the way to grow the economy. It's the

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way to grow the government. It's the way to give

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them more power, but not the government. It doesn't help.

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It helps when things are really bad. So going forward,

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they do think that there's volatility, the ups and the downs.

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I've definitely created an opportunity. We got a lot of

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people called this week because they got a little nervous.

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They go, well, I don't want to be selling. I've

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already sold some. I want to be a buyer. I'm

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looking to buy. We've been buying RSP We've been buying

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some individual stocks. It's a buying opportunity. But the only

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way it can be a buying opportunity is if you

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mitigated risk. It took money off the table and put

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it in cash in the money market, if your heads yourself,

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if you had inverse funds on whatever it is. It's

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going to be very critical to know how to do

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this over the next three to four months. It's going

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to be very critical that you don't panic out if

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the market's for more. But any way you look at it,

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you know the Fed has the ammunition to move forward,

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to lower the rates, to basically bring the economy back

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and stimulate it. So whether it's now a later, that's

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what's going to happen. The markets do predict what's going

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to happen down the road, So are they predicting in

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six eight months from now we're gonna have the recession? Probably,

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but the markets will turn before we actually hit a

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recession and start moving up. You can't wait for the

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bell to ring because there is no bell. There's no

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bell at the top and there's no bell at the bottom.

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You have to just know what you're doing, and it's

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called experience, and it's very hard to do with.

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Your own money.

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It just rates will come down. Those will hurt annuities,

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but annuity sales will go up because people will use

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fear to sell. There are other avenues to go other

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than just always buying an annuity. Now, sometimes an annuity

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and the care and having a monthly cash flow for

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the rest of your life makes sense. I'm not denying

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that locking up at a high interest rate deferreding deferred

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taxes makes sense for many people, but not for your

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whole portfolio. People tend to get scared when the markets

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are going down, and they listen to the pundits and

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the media and they go, wow, we're in a world

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of hurt. We got wars all over the place, we

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got inflation. We can't pay for things. Every time I

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go to the grocery store, it's higher. Criminal activity is up,

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the borders are open, and we have an election, so

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they fear and they let it get creep into their

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minds rather than looking back and saying, you know, I've

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been around this thing a long time. If I'm with

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the right person and did my right financial plan, then

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my portfolio is set up that I can handle this

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up and downs and I hopefully will have some cash

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shit the money's down to be able to buy some things,

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whether it's indexes or good quality companies. But that's what

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you do, and that's how you survive the ups and

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the downs of these markets. And he ups in the

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downs of this world, and he ups in the downs

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of a political scene, the commentary, the media. But it

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is scary. I'm not disagreeing. Somehow we got wars all

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over the place. They say we're not in war, but

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they keep bombing our American installations in the Middle East.

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They keep sending missiles to our at our navy ships

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in over there in the Middle East. But we're not

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in war because we haven't declared war and attacked anyone.

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But we're being attacked. We all know something's gonna happen

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with Iran and Israel because we keep giving Iran money.

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And as long as Iran has money, they will go

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ahead and feed the terrorist groups, says Bola and Hamas

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to attack Israel because in their minds, all the Jews

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should be wiped out. And it's absolutely disgusting that people

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in our country, our country, believe the same thing. But

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I guess everybody could have their own opinions. But I'm

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going to say this, it was about a week and

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a half ago. Week ago, week and a half ago,

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we saw this disgusting act of so called Americans protesting

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against Israel by burning the American flag, burning the American

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flag and putting graffiti all over our government buildings, federal buildings,

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and putting up the Hamas flag and taken down the

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US flag. And I know you can get into all

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the arguments of what it is and what it's not.

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Is it as bad as January sixth and not? I

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get that. I don't want to go down that road.

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When I want to go down is the road of this.

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That scene is seen all over the world, and that

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shows weakness on our part, shows weakness on our part.

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And if you don't think that Russia and Iran and

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China or want the continuation of the Biden administration, then

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I don't think we're looking at the same information. We

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didn't have wars when Trump was in We didn't have

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disrespect like we have now. We had respect of other

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countries because they were scared. I always say this, and

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we'll always say state this. It's a fact. What did

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not dealing with people like us? When you're dealing with

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people that are terrorists, terrorist groups, when you're dealing with dictatorships,

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the only thing they understand is fear. Don't differ than

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when you're growing up and the bully's beating everyone up

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until someone stands up against the bully and punches them

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in the nose, and the bully then finally backs down

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and does not go ahead and bully anymore because you've

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gained respect. That's the America that I want to be

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part of. And so when I saw that American flag

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being burned, it was so heart warming, and so I

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had almost brought tears in my eyes. I'm not going

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to deny it. When I watch the Olympics. Been watching

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the Olympics, especially when our gymnasts, all five of them,

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when the team competition, we know the adversaries that they

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went through and all the stuff they had to overcome,

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especially some owned files right and hold that flag up

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with pride like every other Olympic person there, every American

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that holds that flag up tells me that's what we

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have to do. We have to hold the flag up

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and be proud of it because it's that flag that

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has the history and the memories that allow us to

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be able to go to the Olympics and do what

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we do. Remember the way we do the Olympics. Our

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athletes don't get paid the money that China gets paid

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and all the other Communist countries and all these other

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countries that basically put these their athletes on government salaries

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to all they do is trained so they can represent

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their countries in the highest light. Our our athletes get

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some money, they get support, there's no doubt about it.

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It's all fundraising, but they had the pride to represent

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our country and they do it the way it's supposed

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to be. So you weigh the one time our flag

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now being waived at the Olympics, every time we win

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a medal versus what we saw a week and a

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half two weeks ago, and you tell me how you

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want this country to go forward. It's also interesting as

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we move forward, and I want to give a shout

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out to the Biden administration because bringing home these prisoners

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without getting political about it is incredibly heartwarming, and I

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give them credit for it. I know the political timing,

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I know all that stuff, but I want you to

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think about if one of these loved ones were your

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loved ones that were stuck in this Russian prison for

258
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as long as they were, and all you can do

259
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is every day pray that they're still alive. Every day,

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pray that they're not being hurt. Every day, pray that

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you can see them alive one day. You couldn't care

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less if it happened for political reasons or not, because

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all you want to do is put your arms around

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that loved one and tell them how much you love

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them and miss them. That to me was important. That

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to me means everything. I don't care when it happened.

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Put yourself in the position of those families. They are

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the ones that have won. And as Americans, we should

269
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be happy about this, bringing back our journalists, Germany getting theirs,

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the other countries getting theirs. This was this was a

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very very good thing, and I'm going to give them

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credit for it. And if we started looking at what

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each administration has. That's good. When another administration gets in

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and stop going ahead and ripping and tearing down the

275
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administration before that, we as Americans will be so much

276
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better off because somehow, someway, when some one party gets

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in over the other party, they forget this fifty percent

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of the others that is still living in America. They

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don't compromise. Somehow they get in and we move far

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right or somehow we move far left, and we can't

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do that. We need to govern for all of America.

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You know, they come up with the by them, you

283
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know obviously it's not going to go through, but it

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comes up with the idea, I'm going to fix the

285
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Supreme Court. I want to put a mandate on term

286
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limits for the Supreme Court and tell them what they

287
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could be able to do and not doing whatever. Right. Well,

288
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first of all, you know that can't go through because

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you need three quarters of this of the Congress to

290
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do it, and then three quarters of the states. And

291
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if you ever looked at a map, you don't have

292
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that many states that vote totally blew, so it ain't happening.

293
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But at the end of the day, what bothers me

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is that every single time something doesn't go right for

295
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the left, what do they do. They resort to violence.

296
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They resort to burning down buildings, they desert to rioting.

297
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Under the peaceful protesting, which they're not doing. The line

298
00:20:00.279 --> 00:20:04.559
up and protest at universities in front of federal buildings,

299
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and it goes to violence and the media covers it

300
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as being peaceful. What bothers me is that when it

301
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doesn't turn out their way, not only they do that,

302
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they want to change the rules. You can't change the

303
00:20:25.000 --> 00:20:27.759
rules in the middle of a game. It reminds me

304
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of growing up with the guy that had the money,

305
00:20:30.680 --> 00:20:33.039
that had the ball, and he was the one that

306
00:20:33.079 --> 00:20:34.720
would come to the game and when it didn't go

307
00:20:34.799 --> 00:20:36.440
his way, he would take his ball and he would

308
00:20:36.480 --> 00:20:41.440
go home until he said, no, you're not going anywhere

309
00:20:41.440 --> 00:20:44.720
you can go. We're keeping your ball. And that's what

310
00:20:44.799 --> 00:20:46.559
we gotta do. You want to leave, you want to

311
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go do your things, you want to go go ahead,

312
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go ahead, but we're not changing. I am tired of

313
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trying to change the game. Now here's the thing. You

314
00:20:57.400 --> 00:20:59.000
want to change the game, you want to do it. Well,

315
00:20:59.400 --> 00:21:01.359
if you put a eighteen years on the Supreme Court,

316
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you better put term limits on the president where he

317
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has only one term, maybe it's six years, so they're

318
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not always going ahead and campaigning. Then also on Congress, Congress,

319
00:21:13.960 --> 00:21:17.599
you go ahead and get term limits. Why don't you

320
00:21:17.599 --> 00:21:20.960
put that out there. You'd have a lot of people saying, yeah,

321
00:21:20.960 --> 00:21:24.400
I agree with that, we should have term limits for Congress,

322
00:21:26.039 --> 00:21:28.799
but they don't. They stop short of what needs to

323
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be done because they just want to yap their mouths

324
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to try to get people all riled up. That's all

325
00:21:34.440 --> 00:21:37.440
it is. If it was me, if I had any

326
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control of what was going on, I would do it Forranstead.

327
00:21:39.799 --> 00:21:43.079
Let's do it. It's notp election. Go vote this weekend,

328
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next weekend. We're voting next weekend. Because if you don't

329
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know who you are right now, who you going to

330
00:21:49.680 --> 00:21:51.920
vote for, If you haven't known the difference in the

331
00:21:51.960 --> 00:21:58.240
policies over this timeframe, if you don't know who Kamala

332
00:21:58.279 --> 00:22:02.000
Harris is, if you don't know that she had a

333
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twenty eight percent approval waving because they until the media

334
00:22:06.240 --> 00:22:08.319
put it on the pedestal. If you don't know this

335
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whole thing was orchestrated by making sure he bombed UH

336
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at his debate. So they can usher her in and

337
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get the momentum and do all this stuff. You didn't

338
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know that the media was the Just listen to them.

339
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That's all you have to do. Get it over with,

340
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because all you're gonna do if you're undecided is listen

341
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to the media. Listen to these these basically these idiots

342
00:22:32.559 --> 00:22:35.039
on Facebook that go back and forth or in the

343
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social media, and half of it's untrue. They take say

344
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everyone's a liar, everyone's gonna get with of democracy. It

345
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ain't happening, and everyone's not lying. What they are are misleading,

346
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the misleading because they're very good at marketing. They take

347
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what you want, they want to is here so they

348
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can ribble up their people. Why doesn't the media just

349
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do the news. Why doesn't the media just bring the

350
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world together. Why doesn't the media do exactly what they

351
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did when they wanted to get rid of Biden? They

352
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told the truth? But after that they didn't. After that,

353
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all of a sudden, Harris is the greatest thing, that

354
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best vice president. She was the best at everything she did.

355
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Why couldn't she even get to Iowa? But that's where

356
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we're at right now, and that's okay. Let's just vote

357
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you want to vote blue, you vote blue. You want

358
00:23:27.599 --> 00:23:29.799
to vote rend, you vote read. Let's just get it

359
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done so we can move on with our lives, because

360
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whoever gets in is still going to be controlled by

361
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the people. It's still going to be controlled by the constitution.

362
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It's still going to have screw up, so it's still

363
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gonna lie to us, and they're still going to have power.

364
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And this is what I want you to remember as

365
00:23:44.960 --> 00:23:47.759
you fight with your families or your friends, and people

366
00:23:47.839 --> 00:23:49.759
take you off here and say they'll never talk to

367
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you again, which is such hogwash, which is the worst

368
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thing I've ever seen in my life, because people can't

369
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have normal, absolute normal discussions and be able to talk

370
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about how they feel on each issue. But remember, whoever

371
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gets in democracy isn't going away because we the people

372
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won't let it. And number two, they don't know who

373
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you are. They don't care about who you are. They

374
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care about you voting for them so they can have

375
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the power and become the richest people by making one

376
00:24:21.559 --> 00:24:27.200
hundred and fifty two hundred thousand and become one hundred millionaires,

377
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have tens of millions of dollars off the backs of us.

378
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They don't care about you and never will, so don't

379
00:24:35.079 --> 00:24:37.799
get into it with your family and your friends. I'll

380
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be back. It's the Money Matter of Show. Thank you

381
00:24:40.000 --> 00:24:44.559
for listening. Welcome back everybody, Money Matter Show. Dave Sherwood,

382
00:24:45.000 --> 00:24:49.480
Dylan Greenberg, God Glick and myself. We want to bring

383
00:24:49.519 --> 00:24:51.920
a lot of financial information. The markets obviously have been

384
00:24:51.920 --> 00:24:56.079
scaring the little people. I wouldn't be scared yet, but

385
00:24:56.119 --> 00:24:58.960
I still wouldn't be scared even if it goes down more,

386
00:24:59.440 --> 00:25:02.920
because you know, it's all about setting up the portfolio

387
00:25:03.079 --> 00:25:07.400
the right way. Okay, your allocations, your risk tolerance, how

388
00:25:07.440 --> 00:25:10.519
you do it, but mitigating risk when the markets were higher,

389
00:25:11.240 --> 00:25:12.920
and even if you just took money off the table,

390
00:25:12.920 --> 00:25:14.440
which is what we did most of the part. We

391
00:25:14.480 --> 00:25:17.799
had a high level of cash looking to go back in.

392
00:25:17.880 --> 00:25:20.640
But when you go back in, your dollar cost savage

393
00:25:21.279 --> 00:25:23.519
and you go into areas that you think might come back.

394
00:25:23.559 --> 00:25:26.200
And that's why we went in to the RSP, which

395
00:25:26.240 --> 00:25:28.400
is the equal way to S and P five hundred,

396
00:25:28.720 --> 00:25:30.359
not the rail one, because we knew the S and

397
00:25:30.359 --> 00:25:33.759
P five hundred could get hit more because of all

398
00:25:33.799 --> 00:25:37.759
the the Magnificent seven stocks.

399
00:25:38.440 --> 00:25:42.359
We were down five hundred points on the Dow on Thursday,

400
00:25:42.920 --> 00:25:45.559
and at midday on Friday we hit I know if

401
00:25:45.559 --> 00:25:47.720
we hit a thousand, but we were real close, real

402
00:25:47.720 --> 00:25:50.680
close to being down one thousand. I had two calls.

403
00:25:51.160 --> 00:25:53.000
I had two calls on Friday. It was the first

404
00:25:53.000 --> 00:25:55.240
two days, and one of them with a buddy I

405
00:25:55.240 --> 00:25:58.279
see at the gym who was just kind of messing

406
00:25:58.359 --> 00:26:01.400
with me. So, yeah, it's first two days. Like Dean said,

407
00:26:01.400 --> 00:26:02.920
did say, hey, you know, if this goes on for

408
00:26:02.960 --> 00:26:06.839
a period, and it can, it can, but if you

409
00:26:06.880 --> 00:26:10.839
stop and look at it, we pulled back all the

410
00:26:10.839 --> 00:26:14.119
way to where we were sixty days ago. That's really it.

411
00:26:14.440 --> 00:26:16.799
We're back to where we were sixty days ago. Even

412
00:26:16.880 --> 00:26:23.880
the semiconductor ETF, which is down twenty five percent from

413
00:26:23.920 --> 00:26:27.039
as high, it's still up twenty five percent for the year.

414
00:26:28.319 --> 00:26:29.640
I mean yeah, it.

415
00:26:30.119 --> 00:26:32.599
Was like it's still up seventeen percent for the year.

416
00:26:33.640 --> 00:26:35.200
One of the things I want to I do want

417
00:26:35.200 --> 00:26:39.000
to put out there too, when we have volatility like

418
00:26:39.039 --> 00:26:40.640
this in the S and P five hundred up put

419
00:26:40.640 --> 00:26:45.920
down one hundred points every other day. Okay, as much

420
00:26:45.920 --> 00:26:49.799
as it's following scary, that's usually either signifying a top

421
00:26:50.519 --> 00:26:53.480
or signifying the bottom, and since we've already fallen off

422
00:26:53.519 --> 00:26:57.720
about seven percent or so, it more signifies the bottom

423
00:26:57.960 --> 00:27:01.079
than a top. The problem is is you get in,

424
00:27:01.359 --> 00:27:03.279
you'll watch it go up, you're happy, and then it

425
00:27:03.319 --> 00:27:05.680
goes down for two days lower than it was, and

426
00:27:05.720 --> 00:27:08.240
then you get scared again. The whole idea is one

427
00:27:08.279 --> 00:27:10.839
day it stops doing that, and then it goes up,

428
00:27:11.279 --> 00:27:13.559
fake's coming down, and then keeps going and breaks out

429
00:27:13.759 --> 00:27:15.400
the next thing you know, you're like, man, I should

430
00:27:15.400 --> 00:27:15.960
have gotten it.

431
00:27:16.480 --> 00:27:18.599
And I think one of the questions I get most

432
00:27:18.599 --> 00:27:21.480
asked was asked the most often in talking to people

433
00:27:22.039 --> 00:27:24.880
h last week was are we going to have a recession?

434
00:27:24.960 --> 00:27:28.519
You know all this talk about recession, and Dean, you

435
00:27:28.519 --> 00:27:30.240
and I have been in this long enough. A recession

436
00:27:30.319 --> 00:27:34.759
can become self fulfilling. If you're fearful that there's going

437
00:27:34.799 --> 00:27:36.920
to be a recession, you're gonna pull in your horns

438
00:27:37.079 --> 00:27:40.160
and guess what, there you get a recession. So it

439
00:27:40.160 --> 00:27:42.480
can become a self fulfilling prophecy if you will.

440
00:27:43.119 --> 00:27:46.839
Well, everybody I know that's in the restaurant business, they're

441
00:27:46.880 --> 00:27:48.799
starting to feel it. That's where you feel it for us,

442
00:27:48.839 --> 00:27:50.720
because people cut back. Where do they cut back?

443
00:27:52.079 --> 00:27:55.079
By dinner. Yeah, they go to discount stores and get

444
00:27:55.240 --> 00:27:56.119
meals to eat it.

445
00:27:56.160 --> 00:27:59.119
Home consumer and dabated home the other night I did.

446
00:27:59.400 --> 00:28:02.119
I called because Dane, I'm sitting down for dinner. Do

447
00:28:02.119 --> 00:28:04.279
you mind if I call you back later? I mean,

448
00:28:04.680 --> 00:28:06.000
what is that you throw at dinner at home?

449
00:28:06.200 --> 00:28:08.720
But no, you said where I were eating? I said,

450
00:28:09.200 --> 00:28:12.359
my wife made sturfry, right, And it's funny because we

451
00:28:12.400 --> 00:28:14.160
go out to dinner. I don't go out to dinner.

452
00:28:14.200 --> 00:28:17.000
We get takeout every single night of the year except

453
00:28:17.000 --> 00:28:20.680
on our wedding anniversary. And she cooks sturfry every area.

454
00:28:20.720 --> 00:28:23.519
It's always stur ferry. Is it always stur fright?

455
00:28:23.680 --> 00:28:27.759
No, there's no tradition traditions where they eat.

456
00:28:29.240 --> 00:28:31.279
And now she's she has a high school reunion coming up,

457
00:28:31.279 --> 00:28:34.039
so I'm thinking there was some some weight control involved

458
00:28:34.079 --> 00:28:35.720
in that hug at dinner as well.

459
00:28:36.319 --> 00:28:38.839
No, but That's what I'm saying. It's just like people

460
00:28:38.880 --> 00:28:42.160
have cut back doing it. I mean, and that's normal,

461
00:28:42.640 --> 00:28:45.000
and then then it spins out and then things happen

462
00:28:45.079 --> 00:28:47.319
and then you see it on You probably see it

463
00:28:47.319 --> 00:28:50.599
in Amazon, right. I mean, I was on stockfell the

464
00:28:50.680 --> 00:28:52.799
other day. It was down on the day.

465
00:28:52.960 --> 00:28:55.039
Yeah, Friday, it was down big twelve percent.

466
00:28:55.279 --> 00:28:58.799
Yeah, all because they're all cut back. People do have

467
00:28:58.839 --> 00:29:01.200
a limit of how much they could spend. And for

468
00:29:01.319 --> 00:29:06.640
our economy, are our economy to grow, we must spend

469
00:29:07.079 --> 00:29:08.799
as consumers.

470
00:29:08.119 --> 00:29:10.799
Right, I mean, inflation sounds bad up to a point

471
00:29:10.839 --> 00:29:13.079
where you don't have any inflation, because then that means

472
00:29:13.119 --> 00:29:16.039
no one's growing anything, no one's getting better sales. You're

473
00:29:16.079 --> 00:29:18.200
not gonna have higher earnings reports, so you can't have

474
00:29:18.240 --> 00:29:20.640
stocks keep climbing higher. I mean, it's still at the

475
00:29:20.720 --> 00:29:22.720
end of the day. Stocks have to prove themselves when

476
00:29:22.759 --> 00:29:25.480
they do report these earnings. And we had many earnings

477
00:29:25.480 --> 00:29:27.319
reports this week and it was all kind of met

478
00:29:27.400 --> 00:29:30.160
with they on except for kind of Meta one example,

479
00:29:30.160 --> 00:29:31.839
where that kind of held its gain for the week.

480
00:29:31.880 --> 00:29:34.359
But other than that, every pretty much stock that reported

481
00:29:34.359 --> 00:29:37.079
good didn't really wasn't able to hold its gains because

482
00:29:37.079 --> 00:29:40.359
the overall economy got a little worse and now every

483
00:29:40.480 --> 00:29:43.759
stock is coming into question about the future of their guidance.

484
00:29:43.920 --> 00:29:46.559
But that was an individual selling that was part of

485
00:29:46.640 --> 00:29:50.240
basket selling. Because AMD had great earnings, Meta had great

486
00:29:50.240 --> 00:29:53.119
Earningsqualcom had great earnings, so when they decided to sell

487
00:29:53.319 --> 00:29:56.559
right when they decided to sell, those were in the

488
00:29:56.599 --> 00:29:59.079
basket of boom boom boom boom boom. They all just

489
00:29:59.160 --> 00:30:03.359
sold indiscrimin. It was technical by day show, just like

490
00:30:03.400 --> 00:30:05.599
when it goes up crazy. It's except for Meta.

491
00:30:05.680 --> 00:30:07.599
Meta still ended up five percent on the week. It

492
00:30:07.640 --> 00:30:08.480
had a great week.

493
00:30:08.400 --> 00:30:10.880
When it came back from where it most of the

494
00:30:10.880 --> 00:30:12.680
time it would have kept going, could have been up

495
00:30:12.720 --> 00:30:14.279
one hundred points the way things were going.

496
00:30:14.440 --> 00:30:17.160
Yeah, it was a huge week for major technology companies

497
00:30:17.160 --> 00:30:20.359
to report earnings, and it just seemed like they couldn't

498
00:30:20.480 --> 00:30:24.359
be good enough to satisfy except for Apple traders except Apple. Apple,

499
00:30:24.400 --> 00:30:28.000
and of course Apple beat across all metrics. Great quarter

500
00:30:28.319 --> 00:30:32.599
and actually opened lower. It actually opened lower on Friday

501
00:30:32.720 --> 00:30:34.079
and then bounced back very quick.

502
00:30:33.960 --> 00:30:36.839
Because it was selling off into the earnings as well. Yeah,

503
00:30:36.880 --> 00:30:38.920
that's why it finished the week lower too. I mean

504
00:30:39.519 --> 00:30:41.960
Amazon was also the one, like you just mentioned that

505
00:30:42.160 --> 00:30:44.880
really did get hurt because of the consumer durable play,

506
00:30:44.960 --> 00:30:47.000
like people aren't going to be spending on stuff, but

507
00:30:47.160 --> 00:30:49.640
other things were hanging in there. We saw Hershey's, we

508
00:30:49.680 --> 00:30:51.839
saw Walmart, we saw some of these other you know,

509
00:30:51.960 --> 00:30:54.440
consumer staples type of companies not get hit hard.

510
00:30:54.559 --> 00:30:56.480
How would you like a stock this up ten percent

511
00:30:56.519 --> 00:30:59.960
in the last ten days, that'd big. There's doctor bean right. McDonald's,

512
00:31:00.920 --> 00:31:03.720
one of the worst performing stocks in the Dow, has

513
00:31:03.799 --> 00:31:06.720
just become a spaceship. Is that because of the recession?

514
00:31:06.839 --> 00:31:08.880
Is that because when you go out to dinner, that's

515
00:31:08.920 --> 00:31:12.960
where you're gonna go. No, I get that, but it's

516
00:31:12.960 --> 00:31:14.039
way cheaper than other things.

517
00:31:14.079 --> 00:31:15.839
Well, he did come on the CEO and they were

518
00:31:15.839 --> 00:31:17.759
talking about bringing back a five dollar meal.

519
00:31:18.119 --> 00:31:19.680
Yeah, no, they're definitely doing that.

520
00:31:19.519 --> 00:31:23.480
And that's and I got investors excited again because somehow

521
00:31:23.480 --> 00:31:24.920
they make money off a five dollar.

522
00:31:24.799 --> 00:31:27.599
Meal because it costs them eight cents to make.

523
00:31:27.799 --> 00:31:30.240
Yeah, they own all their farms, or it might be

524
00:31:30.279 --> 00:31:33.359
a break even deal where they're just getting bodies in

525
00:31:33.359 --> 00:31:37.319
the restaurant. Dean and those. I don't think everybody buys

526
00:31:37.319 --> 00:31:39.000
a five dollars meal. You know, you bring your family

527
00:31:39.039 --> 00:31:41.160
and not everybody's gonna get the five dollars exactly right.

528
00:31:41.559 --> 00:31:43.279
It just gets there and the kids are gonna want

529
00:31:43.279 --> 00:31:46.960
to shake and maybe a little ice cream afterwards. But

530
00:31:47.039 --> 00:31:50.119
maybe they seem to be a beneficiary of what's being

531
00:31:50.200 --> 00:31:53.279
perceived as a slowing economy, And we did get some

532
00:31:53.400 --> 00:31:57.640
numbers that showed the economy is slowing. Jobless claims ticked up.

533
00:31:57.960 --> 00:32:02.000
Last week, we saw the ism manufacturing number indicating that

534
00:32:02.160 --> 00:32:05.720
manufacturing is still in a pullback. One hundred and fourteen

535
00:32:05.799 --> 00:32:11.319
thousand new jobs in July. Reported it on Friday. And

536
00:32:11.519 --> 00:32:13.039
I don't know, I don't remember the last time I

537
00:32:13.119 --> 00:32:13.839
number that low.

538
00:32:14.079 --> 00:32:15.680
Yeah, it was supposed to be like one seventy seven.

539
00:32:15.839 --> 00:32:17.759
Yeah, but it must. I think it's been a year

540
00:32:17.880 --> 00:32:20.039
or two since I've seen a number that low of

541
00:32:20.039 --> 00:32:22.720
one hundred and fourteen thousand. Unemployment rate tick to a three

542
00:32:22.799 --> 00:32:25.799
year high. So, yeah, things are slowing down.

543
00:32:25.839 --> 00:32:28.000
Talked about it on Thursday with the manufacturing. We're not

544
00:32:28.000 --> 00:32:30.839
even a manufacturing economy. But they just were work looking

545
00:32:30.920 --> 00:32:33.200
for any reason to office anything.

546
00:32:33.759 --> 00:32:37.440
And it's interesting because the spokesman for the administration was

547
00:32:37.480 --> 00:32:40.799
talking for months on how great the economy is, how

548
00:32:40.839 --> 00:32:44.119
great the economy is. Look at them, all economy is great.

549
00:32:44.359 --> 00:32:47.400
Right now it comes out and it's now showing that

550
00:32:47.720 --> 00:32:51.559
all this inflation and everything is really coming into fruition

551
00:32:51.759 --> 00:32:55.400
right and hurting the economy. You can't take one number

552
00:32:55.799 --> 00:32:57.440
and think that we're having a problem.

553
00:32:58.000 --> 00:33:01.240
Sure, and the market had every the s and P

554
00:33:01.279 --> 00:33:03.640
five hundred is average ten percent for the last hundred years,

555
00:33:03.680 --> 00:33:07.839
ten percent a year, and even with the selloff last week,

556
00:33:08.079 --> 00:33:09.119
it's still up twelve.

557
00:33:09.839 --> 00:33:13.440
Yeah, but that's not what they're worried about. It's like fine,

558
00:33:13.559 --> 00:33:16.559
that's like saying, like the spokesman, oh we'll still up twelve. Well,

559
00:33:16.599 --> 00:33:18.640
us at the end of the day, if it's the

560
00:33:18.720 --> 00:33:21.400
start of something, the markets are going low, oh.

561
00:33:21.319 --> 00:33:23.480
Absolutely, Well, it's the timing too, and that's I mean,

562
00:33:23.480 --> 00:33:25.240
that's what we talk about when we do the financial planning.

563
00:33:25.279 --> 00:33:28.599
That's why we show sequences of returns, like if you

564
00:33:28.720 --> 00:33:30.759
retire the day of two thousand, when the markets drop

565
00:33:30.799 --> 00:33:32.480
three year in a row. People who are getting ready

566
00:33:32.559 --> 00:33:35.559
to retire January of twenty twenty five are probably getting

567
00:33:35.559 --> 00:33:37.720
a little nervous right now, saying, Okay, maybe the markets

568
00:33:37.720 --> 00:33:40.000
aren't What if the markets turned down and then my

569
00:33:40.039 --> 00:33:42.160
first year retirement the markets are down, and what happens

570
00:33:42.279 --> 00:33:44.640
then they don't have the income coming in from work anymore.

571
00:33:44.640 --> 00:33:47.200
They get nervous about it, and it's showing that's what

572
00:33:47.279 --> 00:33:49.279
might be starting to happen too. It's the nerves of

573
00:33:49.519 --> 00:33:52.079
I'm getting ready to retire soon and this market might

574
00:33:52.079 --> 00:33:52.519
turn down.

575
00:33:52.640 --> 00:33:54.799
So how does this financial plan that you guys do

576
00:33:56.319 --> 00:33:57.640
help in these scenarios.

577
00:33:57.880 --> 00:34:00.440
It really depends on if someone's wanting to take income

578
00:34:00.480 --> 00:34:02.680
from an account or not. For most people, if they're

579
00:34:02.720 --> 00:34:04.680
just trying to grow an account and they're living off,

580
00:34:04.720 --> 00:34:08.320
say social Security pensions, a market fluctuation shouldn't matter too

581
00:34:08.400 --> 00:34:10.639
much to you. But the people who are living off

582
00:34:10.760 --> 00:34:14.239
their accounts, we have a very specific way to mitigate

583
00:34:14.280 --> 00:34:16.519
the risk. And again this is going back to what

584
00:34:16.599 --> 00:34:19.760
Dylan just mentioned of showing what the worst possible outcome

585
00:34:19.920 --> 00:34:22.320
was if retiring in two thousand, you have three straight

586
00:34:22.360 --> 00:34:24.519
years of negative years, then you add some good years,

587
00:34:24.519 --> 00:34:26.199
and then two thousand and eight gets you get hit

588
00:34:26.199 --> 00:34:29.239
hard again. So if you can stomach that ten year

589
00:34:29.320 --> 00:34:31.559
period from two thousand and twenty ten, you should be

590
00:34:31.559 --> 00:34:34.360
able to stomach anything that the market throws at us

591
00:34:34.400 --> 00:34:37.079
in the future. We don't know what then we.

592
00:34:37.000 --> 00:34:40.519
Speak and if they come in and do the plan,

593
00:34:41.719 --> 00:34:44.400
how what is it? What does it kind of do

594
00:34:44.559 --> 00:34:47.599
to show them what they we can do or whatnot

595
00:34:47.679 --> 00:34:50.920
not can do, because that's the biggest thing. The Obviously

596
00:34:51.000 --> 00:34:54.360
we know the financial plan can plan for the future, okay,

597
00:34:55.480 --> 00:34:58.519
But the financial plan also sets them up with their risk.

598
00:34:58.440 --> 00:35:02.760
Tolerance, right, I mean it's kind of in separate. I mean,

599
00:35:02.760 --> 00:35:06.800
our risk analyzer tool is part of our process, and

600
00:35:06.840 --> 00:35:09.199
we start with the financial plan, and then we also

601
00:35:09.280 --> 00:35:11.800
have to understand how risky you are as an investor,

602
00:35:12.079 --> 00:35:15.400
and then how risky your current portfolio is. Really it

603
00:35:15.480 --> 00:35:17.519
goes back to our risk analyzer tool, and this is

604
00:35:18.000 --> 00:35:20.480
really how we're able to understand. We'll talk more about

605
00:35:20.480 --> 00:35:21.760
this on the other side of the break.

606
00:35:21.840 --> 00:35:25.239
It also takes in what you might be coming up,

607
00:35:25.320 --> 00:35:27.599
any events, occasions that are coming up in the next

608
00:35:27.639 --> 00:35:30.679
year or two, okay, things that you can't go ahead

609
00:35:30.719 --> 00:35:33.719
and invest for three, four, five years, things that you

610
00:35:34.079 --> 00:35:35.920
need to put money away, and that's what sets up

611
00:35:35.920 --> 00:35:38.440
the whole portfolio. But you only get that from the

612
00:35:38.480 --> 00:35:42.360
financial plan that we offer to you. And we've always

613
00:35:42.400 --> 00:35:44.480
been offered to you for how much.

614
00:35:44.800 --> 00:35:47.400
Free, free, free, crazy.

615
00:35:47.400 --> 00:35:49.960
Everyone thinks it's fat free lunch for some reason. I'm

616
00:35:50.000 --> 00:35:52.400
an idiot. We give away a free lunch. We give

617
00:35:52.440 --> 00:35:56.840
away this thing that people will always say charge thousands

618
00:35:56.880 --> 00:35:59.480
of dollars for. You can just call us. We'll do

619
00:35:59.519 --> 00:36:01.320
it for you. We'll be right back. This is the

620
00:36:01.320 --> 00:36:03.840
Money Matter Show. Thanks a lot. All right, we'll back

621
00:36:03.840 --> 00:36:07.199
It's the Money Matter Show. We do appreciate your listening. Remember,

622
00:36:07.239 --> 00:36:11.719
if you want to listen, re listen, have someone else listen. Well,

623
00:36:11.719 --> 00:36:13.920
go back and just see what we said to see

624
00:36:13.920 --> 00:36:18.800
if we correct or not well on every podcast platform,

625
00:36:19.199 --> 00:36:22.639
just go to Money Matters with Dean Greenberg. But you

626
00:36:22.679 --> 00:36:24.639
have to say with Dean Greenberg because there's a lot

627
00:36:24.679 --> 00:36:27.719
of Money Matter shows, and or you can go to

628
00:36:27.760 --> 00:36:29.760
our website and we have them all on there. Just

629
00:36:29.800 --> 00:36:33.119
go to the YouTube station and you can actually see

630
00:36:33.119 --> 00:36:38.679
all TV shows, a podcast and Todds Friday Afternoon Breakdown.

631
00:36:39.239 --> 00:36:40.880
Yeah, you can go to the top right corner of

632
00:36:40.920 --> 00:36:42.760
the website. You will have a YouTube BiCon. Just click

633
00:36:42.800 --> 00:36:45.039
on that. It would be directly sent to our YouTube page.

634
00:36:46.519 --> 00:36:49.159
Before the end of last break, we're talking about our

635
00:36:49.199 --> 00:36:51.840
risk analyzer tool and why it's so important. It's really

636
00:36:51.840 --> 00:36:53.760
cool now because they just updated it as well. I've

637
00:36:53.760 --> 00:36:55.880
talked about it a couple of times, but I want

638
00:36:55.880 --> 00:36:58.239
to touch on it again because of also what they

639
00:36:58.280 --> 00:37:01.960
updated it with scenarios, So now I can run your portfolio,

640
00:37:02.000 --> 00:37:04.360
your current portfolio and not only know how risky it is,

641
00:37:04.400 --> 00:37:06.519
but then run it through a scenario like what happened

642
00:37:06.519 --> 00:37:08.400
in two thousand and eight, What did the S and

643
00:37:08.400 --> 00:37:10.840
P five hundred do during that period? And did what

644
00:37:10.880 --> 00:37:13.800
would your portfolio, how it's currently allocated, how would it

645
00:37:13.920 --> 00:37:16.000
had performed if you were in that time period.

646
00:37:16.039 --> 00:37:18.719
See, and that's so important because we always tell them

647
00:37:18.960 --> 00:37:21.519
go back to two thousand and one, because if you

648
00:37:21.559 --> 00:37:24.760
were just retiring, and to Dave and I, it's like yesterday.

649
00:37:25.199 --> 00:37:28.320
People retired in ninety nine and two thousand and it

650
00:37:28.400 --> 00:37:32.079
was a nightmare for the next ten years. Even though

651
00:37:32.079 --> 00:37:34.480
we got through two thousand and one and everything was great,

652
00:37:34.480 --> 00:37:36.400
then we had to get smacked in the face again.

653
00:37:37.199 --> 00:37:38.880
But that's why in two thousand and four I came

654
00:37:38.960 --> 00:37:42.320
up with my strategic income model, a way to go

655
00:37:42.360 --> 00:37:45.159
ahead and make people feel a little bit better that

656
00:37:45.199 --> 00:37:47.400
they can always get their income that they were looking

657
00:37:47.440 --> 00:37:50.639
for for least the next five years while they allowed

658
00:37:50.639 --> 00:37:53.159
their portfolio. It'll come back from disaster.

659
00:37:54.320 --> 00:37:57.320
Some wou could have graduated from college in nineteen forty

660
00:37:57.400 --> 00:38:00.320
and had a fifty year career in this business never

661
00:38:00.360 --> 00:38:03.039
had to deal with with what we dealt with in

662
00:38:03.079 --> 00:38:04.079
that eight year period.

663
00:38:05.320 --> 00:38:08.119
And there's only been two years two times in history

664
00:38:08.159 --> 00:38:11.039
where you have three straight negative years. So what Dean

665
00:38:11.159 --> 00:38:13.000
is saying is if you have five years of income,

666
00:38:13.320 --> 00:38:15.920
We've never seen five straight negative years, no, right, And

667
00:38:15.960 --> 00:38:19.159
so that is why this strategic income model works is

668
00:38:19.199 --> 00:38:21.559
by putting four to five years of income put away

669
00:38:21.599 --> 00:38:25.840
in safe products, in bonds, specifically individuals. You know, if

670
00:38:25.840 --> 00:38:28.719
they're in the right particular bonds, especially treasures, you'll get

671
00:38:28.760 --> 00:38:32.039
them back plus the interest. And that's going to be

672
00:38:32.079 --> 00:38:35.000
protecting your income while the market have a chance to

673
00:38:35.039 --> 00:38:37.039
come back. Because the worst thing you can do is

674
00:38:37.079 --> 00:38:39.239
just have a systematic way of saying, hey, I need

675
00:38:39.400 --> 00:38:42.559
twenty thousand out of my five hundred thousand dollars account

676
00:38:42.559 --> 00:38:44.599
each year, so I'm going to sell January first each

677
00:38:44.679 --> 00:38:47.639
year twenty thousand dollars. But that doesn't mean that's the

678
00:38:47.679 --> 00:38:49.760
best time to sell. We always say in the markets

679
00:38:49.960 --> 00:38:52.480
you sell high by low, Right, Well, if you're taking

680
00:38:52.480 --> 00:38:55.760
money into account systematically, you don't really have a tactical approach.

681
00:38:55.760 --> 00:38:59.239
You're just doing it systematically. Whereas what we're doing is saying, hey,

682
00:38:59.400 --> 00:39:02.239
if the market are down, maybe we don't replenish income

683
00:39:02.239 --> 00:39:05.880
buckets that particular year. Maybe we wait so the market

684
00:39:05.880 --> 00:39:08.719
can have a chance to participate back our equity side

685
00:39:08.719 --> 00:39:11.639
of our portfolio, because our fixed income side is protecting

686
00:39:11.719 --> 00:39:13.199
us of what we need our income.

687
00:39:14.000 --> 00:39:17.480
Well, the other thing is talking about income. Wow, bonds

688
00:39:17.559 --> 00:39:20.000
come down the yields.

689
00:39:19.599 --> 00:39:20.679
They had dramatically.

690
00:39:20.840 --> 00:39:23.559
Wow, they were touching five not too long ago, and

691
00:39:23.639 --> 00:39:25.320
now the ten year and the five year at three

692
00:39:25.400 --> 00:39:29.039
point eight percent. Think about that, right, So even though

693
00:39:29.079 --> 00:39:31.840
they said they're going to lower rates, they've already come down.

694
00:39:31.840 --> 00:39:33.679
But we haven't seen mortgage rates come down that much.

695
00:39:33.719 --> 00:39:34.480
Maybe next week.

696
00:39:34.559 --> 00:39:36.519
I think a lot of people too, including us, have

697
00:39:36.559 --> 00:39:39.159
been hiding out in money market funds because you could

698
00:39:39.159 --> 00:39:41.559
get five to five in a quarter with no risk

699
00:39:41.639 --> 00:39:44.760
and uh, and we were concerned that that's going to

700
00:39:44.840 --> 00:39:48.920
be dropping pretty quickly. Here Todd made an interesting observation, Todd,

701
00:39:48.920 --> 00:39:49.880
do you want to yeah.

702
00:39:49.960 --> 00:39:52.400
I mean, if you look at the one month treasury yield,

703
00:39:52.440 --> 00:39:54.800
it is still at five point three. The three month

704
00:39:54.800 --> 00:39:58.599
treasury yield is at five point one. So what these

705
00:39:58.639 --> 00:40:01.639
money markets are doing is they're rolling one month treasury bills.

706
00:40:01.760 --> 00:40:04.360
So until the Fed changes their Fed Fund's rate, the

707
00:40:04.400 --> 00:40:06.280
one month's not going to really move that much. We're

708
00:40:06.320 --> 00:40:08.559
going to do that, so in forty five days though,

709
00:40:08.599 --> 00:40:10.599
because we don't have a meeting until September, they kind

710
00:40:10.599 --> 00:40:13.559
of missed their chance. So for they if.

711
00:40:13.480 --> 00:40:15.599
They have to have an emergency, they don't have the

712
00:40:15.679 --> 00:40:16.559
last one of those.

713
00:40:16.360 --> 00:40:17.400
I think it was in two thousand and eight, the

714
00:40:17.480 --> 00:40:19.199
last emergency meeting we had.

715
00:40:19.079 --> 00:40:22.719
So twenty eighteen. Remember they raised, they raised the weights,

716
00:40:22.760 --> 00:40:25.920
and then they quickly turned around and with the taper tantrum.

717
00:40:26.000 --> 00:40:29.039
That's when we uhh yeah, yap points down.

718
00:40:30.199 --> 00:40:32.800
Christmas Day, Chrischristmas Eve, half a day.

719
00:40:32.960 --> 00:40:36.400
That was a beautiful day.

720
00:40:36.599 --> 00:40:39.039
I'm over in Los Angeles trying to enjoy Christmas looking

721
00:40:39.079 --> 00:40:41.679
at the market falling apart. You guys still well the

722
00:40:41.719 --> 00:40:44.559
next Monday, the next Monday, I think that was maybe

723
00:40:44.639 --> 00:40:47.280
a Friday or a Thursday. The next Monday, we're headed

724
00:40:47.320 --> 00:40:50.000
back to Tucson and my wife said, are you listening

725
00:40:50.000 --> 00:40:51.559
to the market, And I said, I can't. I can't

726
00:40:51.559 --> 00:40:54.280
bring myself to do it. And I finally about halfway

727
00:40:54.719 --> 00:40:57.480
to Palm Springs, I turned it on up one thousand

728
00:40:57.559 --> 00:40:59.400
points because.

729
00:40:59.199 --> 00:41:01.599
They change it. They changed it tu in the lower rights.

730
00:41:02.000 --> 00:41:04.880
That's the impact the lowing rights can do on this market.

731
00:41:05.840 --> 00:41:08.400
But it depends on whether the market believes the Fed

732
00:41:08.440 --> 00:41:11.199
too also right, because sometimes the market's like, you know,

733
00:41:11.400 --> 00:41:14.039
like right now, the market's already priced in the rate

734
00:41:14.079 --> 00:41:15.760
cut as if it's already happened. The only thing only

735
00:41:15.760 --> 00:41:18.559
the bonds, yes, But the only thing they can't change

736
00:41:18.599 --> 00:41:20.679
is that one month and three month because that's more

737
00:41:20.679 --> 00:41:23.599
of the FED side. So until that happens, money market

738
00:41:23.679 --> 00:41:26.760
yield should still stay around where they are until the

739
00:41:26.800 --> 00:41:29.480
FED changes their fund FED funds.

740
00:41:29.360 --> 00:41:31.800
And in passing Gene mentioned that the ten year and

741
00:41:31.880 --> 00:41:34.639
the two year are right about where the same yield.

742
00:41:34.679 --> 00:41:37.320
I think the two years three point eight, ten years.

743
00:41:37.639 --> 00:41:40.840
I've saied the two years three point eight eight, the

744
00:41:40.960 --> 00:41:44.239
ten years three point eight zero. It's pretty darn close

745
00:41:44.280 --> 00:41:47.679
to flat. That's certainly the smallest spread we've seen in years.

746
00:41:48.360 --> 00:41:50.320
And you want to see that. You want to see that,

747
00:41:50.400 --> 00:41:52.400
you want to see it become a more normal yield curve.

748
00:41:52.519 --> 00:41:55.519
Biggest drop in the ten year yield over two years,

749
00:41:55.519 --> 00:41:57.719
for sure, I don't think I saw anything that was

750
00:41:57.719 --> 00:42:02.159
that big since the pandemic. Yea, so really big change

751
00:42:02.159 --> 00:42:04.960
in the whole interest rate landscape, which has changed everything.

752
00:42:04.960 --> 00:42:07.679
And like Dean says it should change mortgage rates significantly

753
00:42:07.719 --> 00:42:09.840
next week. I think the next seven it might be.

754
00:42:09.880 --> 00:42:11.159
Ball of six. We'll see.

755
00:42:11.480 --> 00:42:13.400
Well, it's at six point seven three right now.

756
00:42:13.880 --> 00:42:16.239
So our mortgage guy says six point five.

757
00:42:16.199 --> 00:42:18.880
Yeah, because he has, you know, his own buybacks and

758
00:42:18.920 --> 00:42:22.320
things like that. But the thirty year Freddy mortgage rate

759
00:42:22.360 --> 00:42:24.480
Freddy MAC is at six point seven three.

760
00:42:24.320 --> 00:42:27.960
Currently, Okay, so it probably didn't drop balls getting close.

761
00:42:28.039 --> 00:42:30.840
So if you're dropping this much, if the rates keep

762
00:42:30.880 --> 00:42:33.480
coming down this much, right, keep coming think about how

763
00:42:33.559 --> 00:42:35.599
much money we save on interest?

764
00:42:36.239 --> 00:42:39.519
Yes, helps the government out. They're paying a lot, I.

765
00:42:39.440 --> 00:42:42.320
Mean, almost a trillion dollars and ad just is it.

766
00:42:43.800 --> 00:42:46.559
Point? I thought it was one point yeah, eight hundred

767
00:42:46.559 --> 00:42:49.719
million something. Yeah, it's insane the amount of interest we're paying.

768
00:42:50.719 --> 00:42:55.760
The oil uh, the oil market heard the recession concerns

769
00:42:56.199 --> 00:42:58.199
dropped three and a half bucks this last week to

770
00:42:58.239 --> 00:43:02.400
seventy three fifty. Gold just keeps on keeping on up

771
00:43:02.440 --> 00:43:05.000
another forty seven bucks to twenty four to twenty eight.

772
00:43:05.840 --> 00:43:08.360
I can't get a handle on what's going on with God. No,

773
00:43:08.639 --> 00:43:10.360
it's not doing any of the things that he should

774
00:43:10.400 --> 00:43:10.719
be doing.

775
00:43:11.159 --> 00:43:13.599
Bitcoins the new gold speaking a.

776
00:43:13.519 --> 00:43:17.000
Bitcoin bitcoin drum number last week?

777
00:43:17.159 --> 00:43:19.920
Yeah, did you see that on Friday that Morgan Stanley

778
00:43:20.679 --> 00:43:24.280
told advisors that they'll soon be able to offer bitcoin

779
00:43:24.360 --> 00:43:26.599
ets for the first time. And it's the first Wall

780
00:43:26.599 --> 00:43:27.639
Street from that can do.

781
00:43:27.639 --> 00:43:30.480
That, which is amazing because it's like, oh yeah, they

782
00:43:30.559 --> 00:43:32.360
still have policies where they're not allowed to do it

783
00:43:32.360 --> 00:43:34.239
even though it's available.

784
00:43:33.800 --> 00:43:36.360
It's available, anyone can buy it, and they're not allowed

785
00:43:36.400 --> 00:43:38.079
to buy it. They're not allowed to buy What kind

786
00:43:38.079 --> 00:43:40.760
of trust do you having? You advises that they can't

787
00:43:40.840 --> 00:43:43.599
understand that there's an allocation that could be towards everything.

788
00:43:43.679 --> 00:43:46.159
But yet Dave, yet, and you and I both know it.

789
00:43:46.440 --> 00:43:49.920
Don't let them sell all those bs alternative investment stuff.

790
00:43:50.039 --> 00:43:51.760
Oh yeah, that they get tons of fees on.

791
00:43:52.000 --> 00:43:53.880
Yeah, any of their proprietary stuff.

792
00:43:53.920 --> 00:43:56.280
Man, tell all the planetary funds.

793
00:43:56.440 --> 00:44:00.920
Oh boy, yeah, same deals. Yeah, it's real.

794
00:44:00.960 --> 00:44:05.000
Touches on what makes us different as independent advisors. No

795
00:44:05.000 --> 00:44:08.039
one's telling us what we can and cannot buy. We

796
00:44:08.119 --> 00:44:11.199
make the decisions absolutely based on the suitability of the client,

797
00:44:11.280 --> 00:44:12.920
what their gold and objectives are, and their.

798
00:44:12.880 --> 00:44:17.679
Risk, which everybody needs to be sharing.

799
00:44:17.960 --> 00:44:19.599
But I mean, how can you if you have your

800
00:44:19.679 --> 00:44:22.440
arms tied. You can't do this, you can't do that.

801
00:44:22.559 --> 00:44:24.760
I mean, how much financial planning are you really being

802
00:44:24.760 --> 00:44:25.960
able to give a client?

803
00:44:26.719 --> 00:44:29.199
Oh, you're being at certain firms. You're being forced to

804
00:44:29.199 --> 00:44:32.559
do financial plans for clients to charge thousand, fifteen hundred,

805
00:44:32.599 --> 00:44:35.079
two thousand bucks. You're required to do ten of those

806
00:44:35.079 --> 00:44:37.280
a year, fifteen of those a year if you're going

807
00:44:37.360 --> 00:44:38.840
to work there or else you're not going to work

808
00:44:38.840 --> 00:44:43.760
there anymore. I've been down that road. Whether the client

809
00:44:43.800 --> 00:44:46.239
needs it or not, whether the client wants it or not,

810
00:44:46.320 --> 00:44:48.320
I got to find a way to sell it to them.

811
00:44:48.400 --> 00:44:50.199
Yeah, when I was at Northwestern Mutual, it's it's just

812
00:44:50.239 --> 00:44:51.960
a burn and turn. You have to get people in.

813
00:44:52.039 --> 00:44:53.800
Doesn't matter how many no's you get. You just got

814
00:44:53.840 --> 00:44:55.360
to get as many in and you have a couple

815
00:44:55.400 --> 00:44:57.599
of yeses. Because it's not really a it's like a

816
00:44:57.639 --> 00:45:00.400
boiler room, you know, there's not really an idea that

817
00:45:00.440 --> 00:45:01.960
you want to take care of the clients. Just you

818
00:45:02.000 --> 00:45:03.840
need to get numbers and numbers and numbers in.

819
00:45:04.360 --> 00:45:06.719
Back in the eighties, they told us one hundred calls,

820
00:45:07.559 --> 00:45:10.519
get your ten meetings, get your two clients.

821
00:45:10.960 --> 00:45:15.800
Yep, remember that all absolutely, they were still teaching me that, yeah,

822
00:45:17.440 --> 00:45:17.960
it's like the.

823
00:45:17.920 --> 00:45:23.639
Grand there's one advisor, right, And she kept doing it

824
00:45:23.679 --> 00:45:27.000
for months and every day, every day, every day, making

825
00:45:27.039 --> 00:45:30.960
the calls making I mean, it's she's like, this ain't working.

826
00:45:31.000 --> 00:45:34.559
Why isn't this working? And I looked at it because

827
00:45:34.559 --> 00:45:36.599
you still have to have a relationship with someone. You

828
00:45:36.639 --> 00:45:38.960
still have to figure out a way to sit with them,

829
00:45:38.960 --> 00:45:40.559
and they have to trust you, and they have they

830
00:45:40.559 --> 00:45:43.239
want to know that you know something right, you know.

831
00:45:43.440 --> 00:45:45.679
Forty three years ago when I was doing this business,

832
00:45:45.679 --> 00:45:48.159
one of the senior guys said, so, here's the trick.

833
00:45:48.480 --> 00:45:50.719
You have to when someone calls and asks about a

834
00:45:50.719 --> 00:45:53.840
particular stock, the first question you want to ask them

835
00:45:54.199 --> 00:45:56.519
is whether or not they own it, because if they

836
00:45:56.559 --> 00:45:59.039
own it, you want to sell, and if they don't,

837
00:45:59.119 --> 00:46:00.159
you want to buy them.

838
00:46:00.960 --> 00:46:03.360
Really, and that's why this business is switched over to

839
00:46:03.400 --> 00:46:07.639
a Flute Sherry main focus and fee based. Absolutely selling

840
00:46:08.039 --> 00:46:09.599
to make your car payment at the end of the month.

841
00:46:09.840 --> 00:46:12.440
Fe base is much better route, much more caring for

842
00:46:12.480 --> 00:46:12.800
the client.

843
00:46:13.559 --> 00:46:15.920
Now, we did a big block the other day of

844
00:46:15.960 --> 00:46:18.199
forty or fifty thousand shares whatever it was, and then

845
00:46:18.480 --> 00:46:20.079
we didn't get penny for it. Right.

846
00:46:20.119 --> 00:46:22.400
I mean, that's why the right thing to do annuity

847
00:46:22.480 --> 00:46:25.199
sales minutes. It's it's hard for them to tell themselves

848
00:46:25.199 --> 00:46:27.679
at their produc shares because come on, you're working on

849
00:46:27.800 --> 00:46:30.320
just commission and like Dylan says, you're pretty much doing

850
00:46:30.440 --> 00:46:31.880
a next sale to pay your bills.

851
00:46:31.960 --> 00:46:34.159
So you're selling one product and you're trying to push

852
00:46:34.199 --> 00:46:36.159
and if they don't want it, you maybe have another

853
00:46:36.199 --> 00:46:39.519
product or you just keep you trying to say the

854
00:46:39.599 --> 00:46:40.519
same product a different way.

855
00:46:40.559 --> 00:46:43.440
Think about this August first, it's the type of verse

856
00:46:43.599 --> 00:46:45.639
every first of the month, do you go in this

857
00:46:45.719 --> 00:46:47.639
is you got a zero amount of money you get

858
00:46:47.639 --> 00:46:50.480
into your paycheck. Yep, you have to make the commissions

859
00:46:50.480 --> 00:46:52.599
that month in order to go ahead and get a

860
00:46:52.639 --> 00:46:56.920
paycheck to fifteenth on they afterwards. I hated that even

861
00:46:56.960 --> 00:46:58.440
though I was like a top three, but I came

862
00:46:58.519 --> 00:47:01.360
up with a system of how I sold, you know,

863
00:47:01.360 --> 00:47:03.800
I went to the option floor. I learned how that

864
00:47:03.840 --> 00:47:06.239
they did it sold the options for the oex the

865
00:47:06.360 --> 00:47:08.400
S and P one hundred and we put a program

866
00:47:08.400 --> 00:47:11.880
together back in the eighties before anyone even thought about it,

867
00:47:12.159 --> 00:47:15.320
and that way it was able to legally be able

868
00:47:15.360 --> 00:47:18.840
to trade UH to trade, what do you call it?

869
00:47:18.960 --> 00:47:20.639
Get transaction, transaction, get.

870
00:47:20.559 --> 00:47:22.519
Your commissioned to move on, And everybody was happy.

871
00:47:22.559 --> 00:47:24.360
Okay, threw that in, but I didn't like it. But

872
00:47:24.400 --> 00:47:26.360
I was top three, you know, just then move on.

873
00:47:26.760 --> 00:47:30.599
But that's the issue. You don't have the incentive to

874
00:47:30.679 --> 00:47:33.840
be a really decent advisor if you don't get paid

875
00:47:33.840 --> 00:47:34.400
the correct way.

876
00:47:34.559 --> 00:47:36.400
All right, hard break coming out. We got to say,

877
00:47:36.519 --> 00:47:39.159
we'll see you on the other side. Thanks for listening.

878
00:47:39.239 --> 00:47:42.239
Being part of the Greenberg Financial Group, call us for

879
00:47:42.360 --> 00:47:43.719
that free financial plan.

880
00:47:44.360 --> 00:47:46.599
Good morning, Welcome back to the second half of the

881
00:47:46.599 --> 00:47:48.920
Money Matter Show. This is Dave Sherwood. I'm here with

882
00:47:49.039 --> 00:47:52.440
Sebastian Barsini. I'm here with Todd Golick Jr. And with

883
00:47:52.519 --> 00:47:56.039
Dylan Greenberg. Dean had to run off on a project

884
00:47:56.039 --> 00:47:58.519
of his and so we'll be with you for the

885
00:47:58.519 --> 00:48:02.000
next hour. Uh, Andrew, I seen a week in the market,

886
00:48:02.679 --> 00:48:05.719
A lot of selling on the last two days, the

887
00:48:05.800 --> 00:48:08.519
first actually the first half of the mark of the week,

888
00:48:08.880 --> 00:48:10.920
the S and P five hundred was up one percent.

889
00:48:11.440 --> 00:48:15.599
And then on Thursday we got a couple of earnings reports,

890
00:48:15.639 --> 00:48:20.360
some concerns about slowing economy. Jobless claims were higher, manufacturing

891
00:48:20.599 --> 00:48:25.280
was in recession ten year drop below four percent. The

892
00:48:25.440 --> 00:48:29.679
semiconductors had led the charge at that index, tank seven

893
00:48:29.719 --> 00:48:32.519
percent on Thursday and then Friday was more the same

894
00:48:32.599 --> 00:48:35.440
after just one hundred and fourteen thousand new jobs. So

895
00:48:36.239 --> 00:48:40.320
first two days of August not good. We finished. We

896
00:48:40.360 --> 00:48:42.519
finished July with the S and P five hundred up

897
00:48:42.519 --> 00:48:46.480
fifteen point eight percent year to date, a one point

898
00:48:46.559 --> 00:48:50.519
one percent gain in July, which was the sixth month

899
00:48:50.639 --> 00:48:54.199
higher out of seven so far this year. But August,

900
00:48:54.239 --> 00:48:57.159
when we turned to calendar August, Katie bar the doors

901
00:48:57.199 --> 00:49:03.000
down three point two percent on Thursday and Friday on

902
00:49:03.119 --> 00:49:05.320
the S and P five hundred, so off to a

903
00:49:05.400 --> 00:49:10.000
rough start for August. Two primary themes that seem to

904
00:49:10.039 --> 00:49:13.199
be at play here. Theme number one is are we

905
00:49:13.239 --> 00:49:20.280
going into recession? And that was generated by for economic

906
00:49:20.360 --> 00:49:25.000
reports that were a little softer than expected. Theme number

907
00:49:25.079 --> 00:49:28.480
two and this is coming from the quarterly earning reports.

908
00:49:28.559 --> 00:49:33.480
Last week was a blockbuster week four technology earnage reports.

909
00:49:33.800 --> 00:49:36.519
Theme number two and we've talked a little bit about

910
00:49:36.519 --> 00:49:42.480
this time. Is AI spending worth it AI? Yeah? No,

911
00:49:43.119 --> 00:49:46.639
obviously it will be at some point when right, but

912
00:49:46.719 --> 00:49:49.079
it's kind of you know, again, I've used the analogy

913
00:49:49.119 --> 00:49:52.480
many many times of the EV charging stations out there.

914
00:49:52.880 --> 00:49:55.760
If you're putting in banks of EV charging stations, you're

915
00:49:55.880 --> 00:49:59.360
laying out a lot of money for those pieces of equipment,

916
00:49:59.599 --> 00:50:01.760
and you're not getting a lot of revenue right away.

917
00:50:02.079 --> 00:50:04.400
It's gonna come in trickles. And that's where AI is

918
00:50:05.000 --> 00:50:08.480
becoming so valuable. But that that is one of the themes.

919
00:50:08.880 --> 00:50:12.519
Something that pointed out to me this week. You had

920
00:50:12.679 --> 00:50:16.880
the Russell two thousand finishing the month up ten point

921
00:50:16.880 --> 00:50:18.320
three percent in July.

922
00:50:18.519 --> 00:50:20.280
Almost caught up with the S and P five hundred.

923
00:50:20.599 --> 00:50:23.280
It's down six point seven percent two days in August.

924
00:50:23.559 --> 00:50:27.360
It's unbelievable. And the reason for that is, and may

925
00:50:27.360 --> 00:50:32.280
I our thinking was that as interest rates come down,

926
00:50:32.800 --> 00:50:36.400
small cap stocks will be the place to be invested

927
00:50:36.760 --> 00:50:39.639
because they tend to do better when interest rates are

928
00:50:39.679 --> 00:50:42.760
coming down because they can borrow money cheaper. The other

929
00:50:42.880 --> 00:50:45.880
side of that coin is if interest rates are coming

930
00:50:45.920 --> 00:50:50.119
down because the economy is weakening, they are much more

931
00:50:50.280 --> 00:50:51.920
vulnerable to default.

932
00:50:52.079 --> 00:50:54.559
And that's for the people who are listening that kind

933
00:50:54.559 --> 00:50:55.360
of don't understand.

934
00:50:55.400 --> 00:50:55.639
Well.

935
00:50:55.760 --> 00:50:57.719
Some people are saying instrate's going down, are good? Some

936
00:50:57.760 --> 00:51:00.480
people say instrate's going down a bad Well, it depends

937
00:51:00.559 --> 00:51:03.599
how much interest rates are going down. Why, okay, exactly,

938
00:51:03.639 --> 00:51:06.440
because we've been in a goldie log zone for about

939
00:51:06.480 --> 00:51:11.000
four months where the economy has been slowly deteriorating but

940
00:51:11.159 --> 00:51:14.679
not at a very fast pace, so it hasn't scared anyone,

941
00:51:15.199 --> 00:51:17.519
and it has given everyone the ability to say a

942
00:51:17.599 --> 00:51:20.760
rate cut is coming, So you're pricing that in just one,

943
00:51:20.920 --> 00:51:23.119
just two maybe right. Then all of a sudden, these

944
00:51:23.119 --> 00:51:26.320
economic reports really started to get bad this week, and

945
00:51:26.599 --> 00:51:28.880
we really saw that with the unemployment for the first time,

946
00:51:28.880 --> 00:51:31.400
where it ticked up twenty bas points, not just ten,

947
00:51:31.719 --> 00:51:34.360
and the job growth was not there. Manufacturing was poor,

948
00:51:34.480 --> 00:51:37.320
doesn't really matter, We're not a manufacturing economy. I'm really

949
00:51:37.360 --> 00:51:38.719
interested to see what we're going to get on the

950
00:51:38.760 --> 00:51:42.719
services PMI on Monday that comes out Monday morning. Well,

951
00:51:42.760 --> 00:51:44.840
how that reports is going to be a real indicator

952
00:51:44.880 --> 00:51:47.719
of what we really are going into. But if we're

953
00:51:47.719 --> 00:51:50.239
going into a worse thening economy, like you said, you're

954
00:51:50.239 --> 00:51:52.840
not going to want to be in small caps, right,

955
00:51:52.960 --> 00:51:55.360
And so that's why they're down six points that they're

956
00:51:55.400 --> 00:51:59.559
basically down to where they started last month. You know,

957
00:51:59.599 --> 00:52:01.599
they started last month at two two, they're now at

958
00:52:01.599 --> 00:52:02.199
two on nine.

959
00:52:02.320 --> 00:52:04.199
Yeah, I mean as bad as it was last week,

960
00:52:04.719 --> 00:52:06.719
the worst case scenario, we're back to where we were

961
00:52:06.760 --> 00:52:07.599
sixty days ago.

962
00:52:07.800 --> 00:52:10.400
It's as if nothing that rotation trade pretty much on

963
00:52:10.400 --> 00:52:10.880
the I mean.

964
00:52:11.280 --> 00:52:14.519
We went up so far, so fast, and the trees

965
00:52:14.559 --> 00:52:17.320
do not grow to the sky. We know that. I

966
00:52:17.440 --> 00:52:21.320
was interesting to observe on the at the clothes on Friday.

967
00:52:21.599 --> 00:52:24.679
The S and P five hundred is ahead of the

968
00:52:24.800 --> 00:52:29.559
NASDAK composite year to date, and of course technology is

969
00:52:29.599 --> 00:52:31.920
the growth driver. If you're going to have growth in

970
00:52:31.920 --> 00:52:34.519
the economy, it's going to be technology. So that the

971
00:52:34.559 --> 00:52:39.199
S and P five hundred has surpassed the Nasdaq composite

972
00:52:39.599 --> 00:52:42.239
tells you a little bit about where we're going, certainly.

973
00:52:42.400 --> 00:52:45.559
Also something to point out is the rate cut. Odds

974
00:52:45.760 --> 00:52:48.639
did a complete one eighty that was amazing Thursday at

975
00:52:48.639 --> 00:52:51.079
a Friday tell us about it. Yeah, on Thursday we

976
00:52:51.159 --> 00:52:53.400
had a huge dropping interest rates. So I pulled up

977
00:52:53.400 --> 00:52:57.280
the CME watched tool. It's the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and

978
00:52:57.320 --> 00:52:59.679
it basically is able to get all the different FED

979
00:52:59.719 --> 00:53:01.679
fund in all the yields and they can get a

980
00:53:01.719 --> 00:53:04.639
probability of what the market is thinking that the Fed

981
00:53:04.719 --> 00:53:07.039
is going to cut rates by whin how much?

982
00:53:07.440 --> 00:53:08.440
Where? Right?

983
00:53:08.880 --> 00:53:11.639
So on Thursday, the market said there's a seventy five

984
00:53:11.679 --> 00:53:14.480
percent chance of one rate cut twenty five base points

985
00:53:14.519 --> 00:53:17.880
in September, or a twenty five percent chance of two

986
00:53:17.920 --> 00:53:22.079
rate cuts fifty basis points. On Friday after a really

987
00:53:22.119 --> 00:53:26.239
bad economic report out of labor, that is now twenty

988
00:53:26.280 --> 00:53:28.679
seven percent chance that will get one rate cut twenty

989
00:53:28.719 --> 00:53:31.480
five and now he's seventy two percent chance that will

990
00:53:31.480 --> 00:53:33.239
get two rate cuts. So most people thought it was

991
00:53:33.280 --> 00:53:35.239
just going to be twenty five base points. The market

992
00:53:35.280 --> 00:53:37.440
now thinks it's going to be a fifty basis point cut.

993
00:53:37.559 --> 00:53:39.519
And that's how we're going to start this rate cutting cycle.

994
00:53:39.960 --> 00:53:42.920
When you get an economy to tweaken, in the place

995
00:53:43.000 --> 00:53:45.679
you want to be is in the value oriented stocks

996
00:53:45.679 --> 00:53:48.679
and the big winners on Friday with a big down

997
00:53:48.800 --> 00:53:53.719
market where McDonald's, Coca Cola, Pepsi, Coloroc, Procter and Gamble,

998
00:53:53.760 --> 00:53:58.000
Johnson and Johnson exactly who you would expect the winners

999
00:53:58.039 --> 00:53:59.400
to be, right.

1000
00:53:59.400 --> 00:54:01.599
But it will at all. You know, just because you're

1001
00:54:01.639 --> 00:54:03.159
in the Dow doesn't mean you're going to have a

1002
00:54:03.199 --> 00:54:06.719
good day. We saw with one company, Intel having its

1003
00:54:06.719 --> 00:54:08.559
worst day since nineteen seventies.

1004
00:54:09.280 --> 00:54:12.559
Yeah, and the and banks. Banks did poorly on Friday.

1005
00:54:13.199 --> 00:54:15.239
Banks are an interesting one because you see all these

1006
00:54:15.280 --> 00:54:18.280
reports about how interest rates lower, they should be doing great,

1007
00:54:18.320 --> 00:54:20.599
and their instrates are high, they should be doing it, doesn't.

1008
00:54:20.760 --> 00:54:22.840
It seems like they don't have any correlation. At this point,

1009
00:54:22.880 --> 00:54:25.199
people should just stop trying to figure it out because

1010
00:54:25.199 --> 00:54:27.960
obviously the way people think banking works is not how

1011
00:54:27.960 --> 00:54:28.320
it works.

1012
00:54:28.320 --> 00:54:30.719
I think it's a traditional way of thinking about the XLF,

1013
00:54:30.920 --> 00:54:35.119
which is a financial GTF. Banks. If interest rates go up,

1014
00:54:35.159 --> 00:54:38.719
then their margins should increase. That didn't. I don't know

1015
00:54:38.719 --> 00:54:39.119
why are they?

1016
00:54:39.960 --> 00:54:41.840
Yeah, But then you also have same reports people saying

1017
00:54:41.840 --> 00:54:44.480
when instrates are lower, they're able to do better. Right,

1018
00:54:45.320 --> 00:54:47.400
There's no there's no correlation with banks.

1019
00:54:47.480 --> 00:54:49.440
Doesn't seem to be. That doesn't seem to be. The

1020
00:54:49.480 --> 00:54:51.920
one that probably took the biggest hit last week would

1021
00:54:51.920 --> 00:54:56.000
have been the semiconductor stocks. That's where the growth has been.

1022
00:54:56.039 --> 00:54:59.039
That's where all the excitement about AI has been, whether

1023
00:54:59.079 --> 00:55:04.599
it be Nvidio or Broadcom or AMD. Of course, Intel

1024
00:55:04.719 --> 00:55:06.320
is in a whole nother world. I don't know what's

1025
00:55:06.320 --> 00:55:07.119
going on with Intel.

1026
00:55:07.199 --> 00:55:09.159
Yeah, down twenty seven percent in one day.

1027
00:55:09.320 --> 00:55:12.480
Down twenty Yeah, and eliminated their dividend, laying off fifteen

1028
00:55:12.760 --> 00:55:15.480
percent of their workforce. And how are they going to

1029
00:55:15.519 --> 00:55:16.960
pay for their new plant in Phoenix, a.

1030
00:55:17.000 --> 00:55:19.039
Twenty billion dollar foundry. It's hard to believe that a

1031
00:55:19.079 --> 00:55:22.119
company's doing so poorly and building such a big plant.

1032
00:55:22.400 --> 00:55:25.039
But hey, it's your home, so hopefully it works.

1033
00:55:25.159 --> 00:55:27.400
And how are you doing so poorly in such a

1034
00:55:27.440 --> 00:55:29.679
strong environment for products that you make?

1035
00:55:30.880 --> 00:55:33.960
Well, they're making they're starting to make new products. That's

1036
00:55:34.000 --> 00:55:36.199
the problem, is they they they It's kind of like

1037
00:55:36.599 --> 00:55:40.000
the well I think it wasn't Cisco or and also

1038
00:55:40.000 --> 00:55:41.760
a little bit of IBM. You get stuck in those

1039
00:55:41.840 --> 00:55:45.559
legacy products and you don't upgrade into new manufacturing that

1040
00:55:45.639 --> 00:55:48.519
people actually care about. You know, That's I think it

1041
00:55:48.559 --> 00:55:50.440
was the problem. Now this new factory is supposed to

1042
00:55:50.440 --> 00:55:53.639
be some of these new, newer improved products that people

1043
00:55:53.719 --> 00:55:54.320
actually want.

1044
00:55:54.400 --> 00:55:57.199
Now I did. They're really struggling. Like I said, the

1045
00:55:57.239 --> 00:55:59.239
worst day, I heard the worst day in history, But

1046
00:55:59.280 --> 00:56:00.400
you said worst day since I.

1047
00:56:00.440 --> 00:56:01.559
You on CNBC.

1048
00:56:01.679 --> 00:56:04.559
But no, I believe that I just didn't happen to

1049
00:56:04.599 --> 00:56:06.679
notice it, but it was a it was a rough day.

1050
00:56:06.920 --> 00:56:09.079
The jobs were fourt on Friday, one hundred and fourteen

1051
00:56:09.119 --> 00:56:13.119
thousand new jobs, which was well below what was expected

1052
00:56:13.679 --> 00:56:16.760
and one of the lowest jobs report numbers I can

1053
00:56:16.840 --> 00:56:19.360
remember seeing. I tried to look up what has been

1054
00:56:19.480 --> 00:56:21.639
historically over the past few months, and I couldn't come

1055
00:56:21.719 --> 00:56:23.760
up with that. But I think it's pretty low. It's

1056
00:56:23.800 --> 00:56:26.639
interesting to see where the jobs took place. Now, we

1057
00:56:26.679 --> 00:56:29.880
had one hundred and fourteen thousand new jobs were created.

1058
00:56:30.159 --> 00:56:32.960
Do you know sixty four thousand of those new jobs,

1059
00:56:33.000 --> 00:56:36.280
which is what about sixty percent, were in healthcare and

1060
00:56:36.320 --> 00:56:41.559
social assistance. Healthcare and social assistance. Construction picked up twenty

1061
00:56:41.599 --> 00:56:45.599
five thousand jobs. Leisure and hospitality picked up jobs. I

1062
00:56:45.679 --> 00:56:48.840
was really surprised. The one that lost the most jobs

1063
00:56:48.880 --> 00:56:55.239
twenty thousand jobs lost, was it information technology? And I

1064
00:56:55.280 --> 00:56:57.639
can't really understand how.

1065
00:56:57.280 --> 00:57:01.039
Why, I mean until the fourteen percent of that it

1066
00:57:01.159 --> 00:57:03.800
all work for Intel, right, I mean, yeah, twenty thousand

1067
00:57:03.880 --> 00:57:07.440
is probably enough to cover that for them. Bitcoin had

1068
00:57:07.480 --> 00:57:10.119
a really bad week, down eight and a half percent

1069
00:57:10.199 --> 00:57:13.639
to sixty two k. It's coming up on its two

1070
00:57:13.719 --> 00:57:16.800
hundred days, so we'll have some support here. But obviously

1071
00:57:16.800 --> 00:57:19.079
it doesn't really matter. What if you're in a risky asset.

1072
00:57:19.119 --> 00:57:22.440
You got hit hard these last two days. It was

1073
00:57:22.480 --> 00:57:24.719
trending well. I think the thing that you have to

1074
00:57:24.719 --> 00:57:27.159
think about now is is it going to continue its

1075
00:57:27.159 --> 00:57:30.400
correlation with risky assets or does it break it it

1076
00:57:30.519 --> 00:57:33.880
normally it goes with the ques kind of thing normally

1077
00:57:34.000 --> 00:57:37.480
is the trends around the queues. But it's just a

1078
00:57:37.559 --> 00:57:40.280
very interesting space right now. We'll see how it all

1079
00:57:40.280 --> 00:57:42.599
plays out. I love these bitcoin products because of the

1080
00:57:42.639 --> 00:57:46.079
weekends when we have crazy marketments like this. Ever, at

1081
00:57:46.159 --> 00:57:47.639
least you have something to look at.

1082
00:57:47.760 --> 00:57:51.119
I'm sure waiting for fifty four, Well, hopefully it gets back.

1083
00:57:51.239 --> 00:57:54.039
What do it close that Friday six sixty sixty two

1084
00:57:54.320 --> 00:57:56.960
sixty two or working our way back, working our way

1085
00:57:56.960 --> 00:58:01.639
back to you, babe. Through first, here's an interesting one.

1086
00:58:01.679 --> 00:58:04.000
This is this is kind of kind of goes contrary

1087
00:58:04.000 --> 00:58:08.119
to what you're hearing about the economy. Door dash up

1088
00:58:09.079 --> 00:58:11.440
in the last twelve months gained another nine percent on

1089
00:58:11.519 --> 00:58:15.599
Friday after the company reported Beckett better second quarter results

1090
00:58:15.599 --> 00:58:19.119
and expected and raised guidance. And I'm thinking it's kind

1091
00:58:19.119 --> 00:58:22.119
of the unusual that they would be doing well if

1092
00:58:22.159 --> 00:58:24.639
in fact the consumer is really cutting.

1093
00:58:24.320 --> 00:58:26.000
Back well, especially when you got all those fees.

1094
00:58:26.119 --> 00:58:27.239
What am I missing? Young people?

1095
00:58:27.320 --> 00:58:27.760
One?

1096
00:58:28.519 --> 00:58:29.920
People are so lazy.

1097
00:58:30.000 --> 00:58:31.320
That's exactly what I was gonna say too.

1098
00:58:31.400 --> 00:58:32.440
They're so lazy, Dave.

1099
00:58:32.800 --> 00:58:35.199
So you're saying that even if they're a little strapped,

1100
00:58:35.360 --> 00:58:37.480
they're still gonna have the food brought to the house.

1101
00:58:37.599 --> 00:58:41.079
Food brought to the house, groceries brought to the house. Whatever.

1102
00:58:41.360 --> 00:58:43.599
I know. I know if if door Dash went out

1103
00:58:43.639 --> 00:58:46.000
of business, my daughter would start in Los Angeles. Was

1104
00:58:46.039 --> 00:58:46.639
sarve to death.

1105
00:58:46.719 --> 00:58:49.519
It's crazy, and that's what we're you know, it's wild.

1106
00:58:49.599 --> 00:58:51.639
They bringing this stuff from the grocery store and from

1107
00:58:51.639 --> 00:58:53.519
the restaurants and they don't.

1108
00:58:53.639 --> 00:58:55.440
I'm not sure what it's like on groceries, but if

1109
00:58:55.480 --> 00:58:58.199
I try to DoorDash or uber, EAT's a food item.

1110
00:58:58.239 --> 00:58:59.679
To me, I'm paying a twenty percent premium.

1111
00:58:59.719 --> 00:59:01.440
As you probably get to a point day where you

1112
00:59:01.519 --> 00:59:03.559
just you're so used to it that it is a

1113
00:59:03.559 --> 00:59:06.559
consumer stable to them, right like these people, it is

1114
00:59:06.599 --> 00:59:08.280
a staple. It is what they do.

1115
00:59:09.079 --> 00:59:11.719
Last week I think was probably the best example we've

1116
00:59:11.719 --> 00:59:14.719
had in quite some time of how important the financial

1117
00:59:14.760 --> 00:59:18.719
plan is. Because the financial plan is just not about saying, Okay,

1118
00:59:18.760 --> 00:59:21.679
you're going to be good. The financial plan involves a

1119
00:59:21.760 --> 00:59:26.559
risk analysis tool and tells you where you should be

1120
00:59:27.079 --> 00:59:31.239
in terms of your market temperament. Right, and so the

1121
00:59:31.480 --> 00:59:35.760
idea with a financial plan and a risk profile questionnaire

1122
00:59:36.400 --> 00:59:39.960
is to have you allocated in a manner so when

1123
00:59:40.199 --> 00:59:43.400
a week like last week happens, you say, yeah, well,

1124
00:59:43.400 --> 00:59:47.440
well it'll be better. You've got to have that allocation

1125
00:59:47.599 --> 00:59:49.880
that allows you to sleep at night. And I've said

1126
00:59:49.880 --> 00:59:52.440
one hundred times, we sleep at night when you sleep

1127
00:59:52.440 --> 00:59:52.800
at night.

1128
00:59:52.840 --> 00:59:54.559
I think one of the greatest things about our financial

1129
00:59:54.599 --> 00:59:58.000
planning software is the dynamic ability of it. A lot

1130
00:59:58.000 --> 01:00:00.039
of it's kind of how we take an approach of

1131
01:00:00.599 --> 01:00:01.280
managing money.

1132
01:00:01.360 --> 01:00:01.480
Right.

1133
01:00:01.480 --> 01:00:03.280
It's not a set it and forget a portfolio, not

1134
01:00:03.320 --> 01:00:06.039
a target date fund like a different advisor would put

1135
01:00:06.079 --> 01:00:09.159
you out there on It's okay, I want to buy

1136
01:00:09.159 --> 01:00:10.760
a twenty thousand dollars car. How is this going to

1137
01:00:10.760 --> 01:00:12.639
affect my plan? I could put that into the plan

1138
01:00:12.719 --> 01:00:14.159
and see how it affects it. Is I going to

1139
01:00:14.239 --> 01:00:18.960
drop my probability of success of success down from ninety

1140
01:00:18.960 --> 01:00:21.480
percent to eighty five. Do I want to take that risk.

1141
01:00:22.800 --> 01:00:26.119
But get in an allocation that's that will allow you

1142
01:00:26.159 --> 01:00:29.239
to ride through times like this, because again I'm asked,

1143
01:00:29.719 --> 01:00:33.039
are we going into recession? Nobody knows that, No one knows.

1144
01:00:33.440 --> 01:00:37.400
A recession is technically, two consecutive quarters of negative GDP

1145
01:00:38.039 --> 01:00:41.039
doesn't seem likely right now with the worth of the

1146
01:00:41.079 --> 01:00:43.960
economy that it is slowly, Yes, but it doesn't seem

1147
01:00:44.000 --> 01:00:46.880
likely we're gonna have two consecutive parts of negative GDP,

1148
01:00:47.079 --> 01:00:51.360
but we could. Nobody knows. Nobody knows, and so it's

1149
01:00:51.400 --> 01:00:54.519
important that you have an allocation that will allow you

1150
01:00:54.599 --> 01:00:59.599
to stay with Microsoft, stay with Amazon, stay with Apple,

1151
01:01:00.079 --> 01:01:01.519
regardless of what happens.

1152
01:01:01.599 --> 01:01:04.079
Well, it all goes to if someone needs money or

1153
01:01:04.079 --> 01:01:06.360
not out of their accounts, that's a whole differ deal.

1154
01:01:07.320 --> 01:01:09.679
That's going back to the financial plan. Sure we do

1155
01:01:09.719 --> 01:01:13.719
a financial plan, and your income, which is your sol security,

1156
01:01:13.960 --> 01:01:15.920
Say it's rentals, say it's pensions, whatever it may be,

1157
01:01:16.000 --> 01:01:18.920
that's guaranteed income. I know rentals aren't guaranteed income, but

1158
01:01:19.320 --> 01:01:21.239
in things that you can count on, right, you know

1159
01:01:21.320 --> 01:01:23.320
it's going to be there. You don't really, it's not

1160
01:01:23.320 --> 01:01:26.480
going to be dependent off markets drop fifty percent or

1161
01:01:26.519 --> 01:01:28.719
not right, Just imagine. I know it's so scarity, some

1162
01:01:28.760 --> 01:01:31.119
people worry about it. Just imagine so scarity is there

1163
01:01:31.400 --> 01:01:35.159
pensions there and your income is higher than your expenses,

1164
01:01:35.760 --> 01:01:38.159
Well then you shouldn't be worrying right now about your

1165
01:01:38.239 --> 01:01:41.239
investment accounts. Yes, they were down two days in a row,

1166
01:01:41.679 --> 01:01:44.679
but your accounts are not being taken money out of,

1167
01:01:44.679 --> 01:01:46.920
so you're not selling at bottoms. It will come back.

1168
01:01:47.159 --> 01:01:49.239
It's the people that are taking money out of their

1169
01:01:49.239 --> 01:01:52.280
accounts that have to do the financial planning. The financial

1170
01:01:52.320 --> 01:01:54.519
planning will tell us how much is your withdrawal rate,

1171
01:01:55.039 --> 01:01:57.679
and that tells us how risky we can be. If

1172
01:01:57.719 --> 01:01:59.840
you have a five percent withdraw rate, we have to

1173
01:01:59.880 --> 01:02:02.840
be extremely conservative. If you have a two percent, which

1174
01:02:02.840 --> 01:02:04.719
you all right, we don't have to worry too much

1175
01:02:04.760 --> 01:02:07.840
about it. Two days in a row drop. And that

1176
01:02:07.960 --> 01:02:09.920
I can only prove to you if you come in

1177
01:02:10.039 --> 01:02:12.199
and you look at a financial plant. Dave, You've had

1178
01:02:12.239 --> 01:02:14.920
clients that you worked with for fifteen twenty years, and

1179
01:02:14.960 --> 01:02:17.079
it wasn't until they came in and did a financial plan.

1180
01:02:17.440 --> 01:02:19.320
They were already clients. They already knew what they had,

1181
01:02:19.639 --> 01:02:22.239
but they saw in a different manner in a way

1182
01:02:22.280 --> 01:02:25.320
where they saw, oh, I could double my spending and

1183
01:02:25.400 --> 01:02:27.840
my plan's still gonna be fine. My portfolio could get

1184
01:02:27.880 --> 01:02:30.519
dropped in half, it's still not going to make a difference.

1185
01:02:30.679 --> 01:02:33.519
Yeah, they just don't know that. How can you see?

1186
01:02:33.800 --> 01:02:35.440
How are you going to run that test yourself?

1187
01:02:35.519 --> 01:02:37.920
Right? Just seeing black and white? And you know what,

1188
01:02:37.960 --> 01:02:40.360
We're gonna be okay regardless of what happened.

1189
01:02:40.400 --> 01:02:43.280
And so for those people, this is no sweat to them.

1190
01:02:43.599 --> 01:02:46.800
We told them it not only could happen, it will happen,

1191
01:02:47.199 --> 01:02:49.400
and you're gonna be fine. And so for the people

1192
01:02:49.400 --> 01:02:51.719
who are taking money, I understand that this time always

1193
01:02:51.719 --> 01:02:53.760
as stressful. Is are we going to intercession? Is it

1194
01:02:53.800 --> 01:02:56.039
gonna hurt my pro can't I take out the income

1195
01:02:56.039 --> 01:02:58.400
that we were planning on? And that's why we show

1196
01:02:58.440 --> 01:03:00.639
you the worst time. Not only are we going to

1197
01:03:00.679 --> 01:03:02.880
show you the worst time in terms of average investment

1198
01:03:02.880 --> 01:03:04.480
returns over a long period of time, but we're going

1199
01:03:04.519 --> 01:03:07.000
to show you starting it with three negative years because

1200
01:03:07.039 --> 01:03:10.760
that goes back to negative sequence of returns. If you

1201
01:03:10.840 --> 01:03:13.800
have a problem with your portfolio and you're saying, hey,

1202
01:03:13.960 --> 01:03:16.559
I expect a five percent average return over the next

1203
01:03:16.559 --> 01:03:18.760
twenty years. I'm going to take out about three percent

1204
01:03:18.960 --> 01:03:21.679
of my account each year to live on, so my

1205
01:03:21.760 --> 01:03:24.000
portfolios should go around two percent a year. The issue

1206
01:03:24.000 --> 01:03:26.119
with that is what happens if year one is negative

1207
01:03:26.159 --> 01:03:28.079
five and not the average five that you planned it on.

1208
01:03:28.239 --> 01:03:31.320
Right, Your sequence of returns really matters. Imagine coming into

1209
01:03:31.400 --> 01:03:34.679
retirements in two thousand, you got three negative years, and

1210
01:03:34.719 --> 01:03:37.480
then two thousand and eight happens. Your portfolio looks like

1211
01:03:37.559 --> 01:03:40.360
hell right, it is a scary thing.

1212
01:03:40.840 --> 01:03:43.760
Yeah. And then different different clients have different temperaments and

1213
01:03:43.840 --> 01:03:49.320
different needs. I have a we have several clients who,

1214
01:03:49.480 --> 01:03:53.280
for one reason or another, simply cannot take a hit.

1215
01:03:53.679 --> 01:03:55.960
Now we know that stocks are the best place to be.

1216
01:03:56.079 --> 01:03:58.400
We know that if you buy at the S and

1217
01:03:58.440 --> 01:04:01.639
P five hundred and just with those blue chip stocks

1218
01:04:02.320 --> 01:04:04.480
from beginning to end, you're going to do better than

1219
01:04:04.559 --> 01:04:09.159
any other investment out there. But you don't. Some people

1220
01:04:09.159 --> 01:04:12.800
don't have the time. I've got some older people who

1221
01:04:12.920 --> 01:04:16.039
simply cannot take a hit. They can't take a twenty

1222
01:04:16.039 --> 01:04:18.440
percent hit. It would be the end of their life

1223
01:04:19.039 --> 01:04:22.039
in financial life. And so those people are in bond

1224
01:04:22.159 --> 01:04:25.280
ladders to where they're happy to get the five percent

1225
01:04:25.320 --> 01:04:28.360
four and a half five percent and not have to

1226
01:04:28.480 --> 01:04:31.159
be concerned about taking that hit.

1227
01:04:31.239 --> 01:04:32.599
And if you're on the other side of the coin,

1228
01:04:32.639 --> 01:04:35.360
if you're still in your accumulation phase, you're still working,

1229
01:04:35.440 --> 01:04:38.119
you're still contributing to your retirement accounts, to your four

1230
01:04:38.159 --> 01:04:41.760
one K, this should be the best thing possible for you.

1231
01:04:41.320 --> 01:04:44.440
Your tech is out a ten percent discount right now.

1232
01:04:44.679 --> 01:04:47.840
That's a great point. If you're in your thirties or forties,

1233
01:04:47.880 --> 01:04:50.559
or maybe even your fifties, and you're one hundred percent

1234
01:04:50.639 --> 01:04:53.039
invested in the S and P five hundred and your

1235
01:04:53.280 --> 01:04:56.440
four oh one K, do not do a thing. Do

1236
01:04:56.559 --> 01:04:58.320
not do a thing because you're going to sell at

1237
01:04:58.320 --> 01:04:59.920
the wrong time. You're going to sell when you should

1238
01:04:59.920 --> 01:05:03.000
be buying. This is the best thing that can happen

1239
01:05:03.039 --> 01:05:04.800
to you. If you've got a four oh one K plan.

1240
01:05:05.159 --> 01:05:07.239
The best thing that can happen is for the stock

1241
01:05:07.280 --> 01:05:11.000
market to drop fifty percent, stay down there the whole time,

1242
01:05:11.199 --> 01:05:14.880
and then when you're sixty four double I mean because

1243
01:05:14.880 --> 01:05:21.280
you're buying at low prices. This is a time when when,

1244
01:05:21.480 --> 01:05:26.440
if anything, you're up in your contributions, not reducing your contributions.

1245
01:05:26.599 --> 01:05:28.679
Do not be tempted to say I'm going to get

1246
01:05:28.679 --> 01:05:31.639
out and go into cash and then get back in,

1247
01:05:31.719 --> 01:05:34.199
because I've talked to people in the last few years

1248
01:05:34.239 --> 01:05:36.039
they got out in two thousand and eight, two thousand

1249
01:05:36.039 --> 01:05:37.360
and nine who are still not back in.

1250
01:05:37.599 --> 01:05:40.000
Those many people that do the financial plan will show

1251
01:05:40.039 --> 01:05:41.800
them the two thousand and eight drop. No, we remember

1252
01:05:41.880 --> 01:05:42.719
that we got out.

1253
01:05:43.079 --> 01:05:45.559
We just never got back in, never got back in.

1254
01:05:46.079 --> 01:05:49.239
And unrealized losses is the difference between realized losses, so

1255
01:05:49.440 --> 01:05:52.119
people don't know the difference. Unrealized just means that, yes,

1256
01:05:52.159 --> 01:05:54.559
your portfolio is down fifteen percent, but does not mean

1257
01:05:54.599 --> 01:05:56.880
it's going to always be down fifteen percent. Just what

1258
01:05:56.920 --> 01:05:59.320
it is today, it will change tomorrow and change the

1259
01:05:59.320 --> 01:05:59.760
next day.

1260
01:06:00.000 --> 01:06:02.239
If I remember correctly, in two thousand and eight, the

1261
01:06:02.360 --> 01:06:04.239
S and P five hundred got to sixty six six,

1262
01:06:05.119 --> 01:06:08.800
six hundred and sixty six, and uh, after last week's

1263
01:06:08.800 --> 01:06:10.880
tobacco the S and P five funds all the way

1264
01:06:10.880 --> 01:06:13.400
down to five thousand, three forty six.

1265
01:06:13.679 --> 01:06:16.159
But again, the financial plan is so important because, as

1266
01:06:16.239 --> 01:06:18.280
Dave said, the S and p's average ten percent of

1267
01:06:18.360 --> 01:06:20.800
years for the laste hundred years does not mean you

1268
01:06:20.840 --> 01:06:24.199
can put ten percent in your financial plan, it's not realistic.

1269
01:06:24.639 --> 01:06:27.119
You will have a drop and if your portfolio gets

1270
01:06:27.320 --> 01:06:29.559
hit hard in the first two years, you're not going

1271
01:06:29.639 --> 01:06:31.440
to be able to produce income if you're planning on

1272
01:06:31.480 --> 01:06:34.719
a six percent average return. That is why you have

1273
01:06:34.760 --> 01:06:38.199
to take in that account. The Monte Carlo simulation runs

1274
01:06:38.239 --> 01:06:42.639
one thousand different trials of one thousand different return possibilities

1275
01:06:42.920 --> 01:06:45.119
based on the allocation of your current accounts and will

1276
01:06:45.159 --> 01:06:48.880
show you what your probability of risk is on a

1277
01:06:49.039 --> 01:06:50.079
very negative event.

1278
01:06:50.639 --> 01:06:53.719
And in addition to the financial plan, which is super helpful,

1279
01:06:54.000 --> 01:06:57.119
we go through the risk analysis tool that is also

1280
01:06:57.480 --> 01:06:58.239
super helpful.

1281
01:06:58.519 --> 01:07:00.519
Yeah, I and now it's so cool because it will

1282
01:07:00.519 --> 01:07:03.880
show you the difference between mutual funds and etfsp because

1283
01:07:03.880 --> 01:07:06.000
there's a tax drag on mutual funds that most people

1284
01:07:06.039 --> 01:07:08.440
don't know, and it can be pretty significant, anywhere from

1285
01:07:08.440 --> 01:07:11.679
one to three percent, where ETFs are normally sub point

1286
01:07:11.760 --> 01:07:15.920
five percent if not, if anything, and so exchange trade

1287
01:07:15.920 --> 01:07:19.559
funds are way more efficient in terms of taxing, but

1288
01:07:19.719 --> 01:07:23.960
also in other terms they're just cheaper often as well.

1289
01:07:24.119 --> 01:07:27.000
So you can compare your expense ratios between mutual funds,

1290
01:07:27.039 --> 01:07:30.159
ETFs and your tax drag which will really show you

1291
01:07:30.199 --> 01:07:32.039
what type of funds you're in, especially if you have

1292
01:07:32.079 --> 01:07:34.400
bond funds. We've talked all the time. Yeah, you're gonna

1293
01:07:34.400 --> 01:07:36.119
be fine right now if interst rates are coming down,

1294
01:07:36.320 --> 01:07:37.760
but what happens if they come back up?

1295
01:07:38.519 --> 01:07:38.719
Right?

1296
01:07:38.760 --> 01:07:41.039
You need to have individual bonds so you do not

1297
01:07:41.119 --> 01:07:42.960
have that interest rate risk where you do in a

1298
01:07:43.000 --> 01:07:43.599
bond fund.

1299
01:07:43.960 --> 01:07:46.440
That tax drag is a huge deal, especially on your

1300
01:07:46.440 --> 01:07:48.559
bigger dollar accounts. I mean, I think I talked about

1301
01:07:48.559 --> 01:07:50.119
it on the show last week. We had a two

1302
01:07:50.159 --> 01:07:52.800
million dollar client walk in with a two million dollar portfolio,

1303
01:07:53.119 --> 01:07:55.639
and you know the industry standard to get charged about

1304
01:07:55.639 --> 01:07:58.320
one percent at the current firm. Well, you type, do

1305
01:07:58.360 --> 01:08:01.199
you put their holdings into the risk software and find

1306
01:08:01.199 --> 01:08:04.559
that they're paying about fifty basis points in tax taxes

1307
01:08:04.679 --> 01:08:05.840
on their mutual funds?

1308
01:08:06.280 --> 01:08:06.440
Right?

1309
01:08:06.480 --> 01:08:08.559
So what are you actually paying one point five? Sure,

1310
01:08:09.000 --> 01:08:09.639
that's not cool.

1311
01:08:09.840 --> 01:08:12.000
That's huge, right, It's a huge difference.

1312
01:08:11.679 --> 01:08:13.679
On a two million dollar account. It's a huge difference.

1313
01:08:14.079 --> 01:08:16.880
Our thesis going into this year was that growth would

1314
01:08:16.880 --> 01:08:19.560
be replaced by value, and for the first six months

1315
01:08:19.600 --> 01:08:23.600
we did not see that happen, but it started to

1316
01:08:24.119 --> 01:08:27.359
unfold over the last few weeks and I noticed that

1317
01:08:27.560 --> 01:08:33.159
DVY David Victor Yellow, which is one of our favorite

1318
01:08:33.319 --> 01:08:36.920
ETFs for value stocks, actually hit a two year high

1319
01:08:36.960 --> 01:08:42.439
last week. Some of the money's been rotating out and

1320
01:08:42.520 --> 01:08:45.439
into that. I was, I was looking go ahead.

1321
01:08:45.560 --> 01:08:47.920
I was just saying, like Russell two thousand, it's only

1322
01:08:47.960 --> 01:08:51.239
a percent behind the doll Yeah.

1323
01:08:51.000 --> 01:08:51.199
You know.

1324
01:08:51.319 --> 01:08:53.760
And so even though it's lost a lot of it,

1325
01:08:53.840 --> 01:08:56.159
like you said, it was right there behind the SMP

1326
01:08:56.680 --> 01:09:00.279
on Wednesday, it was just two days that it it

1327
01:09:00.319 --> 01:09:03.359
fell off. But yeah, we definitely saw the rotation. It's

1328
01:09:03.439 --> 01:09:08.479
just it unwound so quickly. Now the idea is as

1329
01:09:08.560 --> 01:09:11.439
money as personally as a money manager. I'm just sitting

1330
01:09:11.520 --> 01:09:13.960
back and weigh in because you have when something as

1331
01:09:14.000 --> 01:09:17.760
a narrative change happens like this, you don't say your

1332
01:09:17.800 --> 01:09:20.760
old thesis was right, because your old thesis is based

1333
01:09:20.800 --> 01:09:23.119
on the old narrative. The narratives have changed.

1334
01:09:23.199 --> 01:09:23.319
Right.

1335
01:09:23.359 --> 01:09:25.880
We were in a goldilog zone. We're expecting a rate cut,

1336
01:09:26.039 --> 01:09:28.640
but it's because the economy is just slowing down.

1337
01:09:28.920 --> 01:09:31.399
Something we didn't want. We've said for months we don't

1338
01:09:31.399 --> 01:09:31.720
want to.

1339
01:09:31.760 --> 01:09:33.840
Rate cut, right, because we know what happens.

1340
01:09:33.920 --> 01:09:34.960
Right, something's broken.

1341
01:09:35.359 --> 01:09:37.640
Now we're saying, not only is the economy getting worse,

1342
01:09:37.720 --> 01:09:40.279
it looks way worse than what we're expecting. Now, that's

1343
01:09:40.319 --> 01:09:43.840
just two economic reports, right. It could be completely different

1344
01:09:43.840 --> 01:09:46.159
next month, right, and so people should not be like

1345
01:09:46.199 --> 01:09:48.960
completely I'm not even that worried. You have to get

1346
01:09:49.000 --> 01:09:52.319
a couple economic reports month after month after month that's

1347
01:09:52.319 --> 01:09:57.079
showing you a trend that's not getting fixed. If that happens,

1348
01:09:57.199 --> 01:09:59.880
that's when you can say, Okay, it's looking pretty dire

1349
01:10:00.119 --> 01:10:02.199
right in the second quarter, the first month it's happened.

1350
01:10:02.319 --> 01:10:04.920
Right. The second quarter just ended thirty days ago, and

1351
01:10:04.960 --> 01:10:07.760
the GDP was much stronger than expected. It was like

1352
01:10:07.800 --> 01:10:10.960
one two point eight. I think, yeah, two point eight,

1353
01:10:11.119 --> 01:10:14.520
very strong, much stronger than expected. And so are we

1354
01:10:14.880 --> 01:10:17.960
in a period where things are slowing down? Yes? Yes,

1355
01:10:18.199 --> 01:10:22.640
Dean mentioned the restaurant space, and I was looking at Cava.

1356
01:10:23.560 --> 01:10:26.560
Cava is uh. We've been talking about that weakness in

1357
01:10:26.600 --> 01:10:28.920
the rest of the place. Cova is a great example. Think

1358
01:10:28.960 --> 01:10:32.279
of when you think of Cava, think of Chipotle, except

1359
01:10:32.319 --> 01:10:36.800
with Mediterranean cuisine and peter bread. Same thing as Chipolti,

1360
01:10:36.800 --> 01:10:41.479
except Mediterranean cuisine and peter bread. This red stock hot

1361
01:10:41.600 --> 01:10:44.439
begin the year stock beginning year at forty three dollars,

1362
01:10:44.840 --> 01:10:46.920
and on July eighth, I hit an all time high

1363
01:10:46.960 --> 01:10:50.560
of ninety nine dollars from forty three to ninety nine

1364
01:10:50.600 --> 01:10:54.760
before plunging twenty three percent in eleven days. So I

1365
01:10:55.000 --> 01:10:57.199
had no news. There was no news of any kind.

1366
01:10:57.560 --> 01:10:59.199
Everybody's just kind of hoping that it was going to

1367
01:10:59.199 --> 01:10:59.840
be that Chipotle.

1368
01:11:00.079 --> 01:11:02.000
I think, I think just people out. So, you know,

1369
01:11:02.319 --> 01:11:05.159
winding up the segment, we've talked a lot about the

1370
01:11:05.159 --> 01:11:08.640
financial plans. We've talked a lot about the risk profile questionnaire.

1371
01:11:09.640 --> 01:11:13.399
We do both of those for free. Please feel free

1372
01:11:13.439 --> 01:11:16.760
to send us your portfolio, give us a call. You

1373
01:11:16.800 --> 01:11:19.119
can email us your portfolio. We drop it into the

1374
01:11:19.239 --> 01:11:24.520
riskalized tool and it'll tell you what level of risk

1375
01:11:24.560 --> 01:11:29.399
you're taking. We generally tie that together with a risk questionnaire,

1376
01:11:29.399 --> 01:11:32.439
so you say, well, you score X, and what you

1377
01:11:32.520 --> 01:11:34.960
have is why. And one of the things I really

1378
01:11:35.039 --> 01:11:38.159
enjoy doing with a couple is sending him a risk

1379
01:11:38.359 --> 01:11:42.920
questionnaire and sending her a separate risk questionnaire, because what

1380
01:11:43.000 --> 01:11:46.039
it does is it allows them then to open up

1381
01:11:46.079 --> 01:11:50.119
a discussion between the two of them about how they

1382
01:11:50.119 --> 01:11:53.920
really should be allocated. What makes them comfortable. What's going

1383
01:11:54.039 --> 01:11:56.239
to allow them to sleep nights? And like I say,

1384
01:11:56.279 --> 01:11:59.439
we sleep nights when you sleep nights. We'll be back

1385
01:11:59.520 --> 01:12:01.640
with the rest to the Money Matters Show right after

1386
01:12:01.680 --> 01:12:04.479
this break. Thanks for a getting assume. Thanks again for

1387
01:12:04.560 --> 01:12:05.880
joining us. We appreciate it.

1388
01:12:07.199 --> 01:12:08.960
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is

1389
01:12:08.960 --> 01:12:12.119
Sebastian Borsini. I'm here with David Sherwood and Todd Clicks Junior.

1390
01:12:13.279 --> 01:12:16.760
Fun week, very volatile, all the things that you want

1391
01:12:16.800 --> 01:12:19.680
in a trader's week. You had ups, you had downs,

1392
01:12:19.840 --> 01:12:23.800
you had narrative changes. We're gonna have an adventurous next

1393
01:12:23.880 --> 01:12:26.680
couple weeks trying to figure this out. But I think

1394
01:12:27.279 --> 01:12:30.119
everyone just needs to take a deep breath and relax

1395
01:12:30.199 --> 01:12:32.680
because again, the markets were only down about two percent.

1396
01:12:32.800 --> 01:12:35.039
I agree, there's a lot of noise out there, lots

1397
01:12:35.079 --> 01:12:38.039
of noise, recession, election, everything.

1398
01:12:38.199 --> 01:12:39.840
I think. I tell you a lot about this year,

1399
01:12:39.880 --> 01:12:42.640
where the worst week this year is down two point

1400
01:12:42.680 --> 01:12:48.600
one percent, right, that's not horrible. Again, of that, I

1401
01:12:48.640 --> 01:12:50.760
always I always forget to turn my phone off. I'm

1402
01:12:50.800 --> 01:12:54.520
sorry there before every week watch every week? Am I

1403
01:12:54.560 --> 01:12:57.119
watching so our vics?

1404
01:12:57.199 --> 01:13:02.159
This week? Not this week? Today had its biggest What

1405
01:13:02.239 --> 01:13:04.039
is the last two days. I was getting to that.

1406
01:13:05.079 --> 01:13:10.399
The VIX is the volatility index volatility index specifically, the

1407
01:13:10.479 --> 01:13:13.520
VIX follows the S and P five hundred stocks and

1408
01:13:13.560 --> 01:13:16.479
how volatile that is. How do they measure volatility? It's

1409
01:13:16.479 --> 01:13:19.399
pretty simple. You know, measure a price change from the

1410
01:13:19.479 --> 01:13:22.359
day before, you put in some volume, you average it out,

1411
01:13:22.479 --> 01:13:23.880
and that's how they do it. It's a whole bunch

1412
01:13:23.920 --> 01:13:26.079
of math, but they do it in all five hundred

1413
01:13:26.119 --> 01:13:27.840
companies and they average it out and see how much

1414
01:13:27.880 --> 01:13:30.319
it increases. It was up over fifty percent at one

1415
01:13:30.319 --> 01:13:35.520
point on Friday. Yeah, I minished about twenty five percent high. Yeah,

1416
01:13:35.560 --> 01:13:39.319
twenty five percent higher. Increased from about sixteen to twenty

1417
01:13:39.319 --> 01:13:42.960
three over the week, So a really big increase on

1418
01:13:43.039 --> 01:13:47.159
the VIX, which shows that people are either tuning in

1419
01:13:47.199 --> 01:13:48.720
for the first time in the markets in a while,

1420
01:13:48.760 --> 01:13:51.199
trying to change some things, or there's just a lot

1421
01:13:51.199 --> 01:13:54.279
of rotation. Seems like it was more rotation because you

1422
01:13:54.319 --> 01:13:57.560
saw how much interest rates fell today. When it straights fall,

1423
01:13:57.720 --> 01:14:00.600
it means people are going into bonds, right, especially if

1424
01:14:00.600 --> 01:14:02.720
the Fed didn't cut any rates, It means that people

1425
01:14:02.720 --> 01:14:04.800
are buying a lot of bonds and they were getting

1426
01:14:04.840 --> 01:14:07.760
bidd down, so people were selling out of stocks and

1427
01:14:07.800 --> 01:14:10.359
going into bonds more safer products. You saw that clear

1428
01:14:10.359 --> 01:14:13.439
as day to day. And so it's because those economic reports, again,

1429
01:14:13.439 --> 01:14:15.000
we don't know if it's going to continue or not,

1430
01:14:15.319 --> 01:14:17.439
and so some of this could be premature. I mean,

1431
01:14:17.880 --> 01:14:19.720
we've seen this many times where you have a fast

1432
01:14:19.760 --> 01:14:21.239
drop and then all of a sudden, the next week

1433
01:14:21.319 --> 01:14:24.039
something rebounds. You have good at earnings reports, and then

1434
01:14:24.079 --> 01:14:26.279
all of a sudden, we're off to the races. So

1435
01:14:26.439 --> 01:14:28.960
it's it's pretty fifty to fifty right now. You have

1436
01:14:29.039 --> 01:14:31.920
to wait and see how these reports keep coming out.

1437
01:14:32.319 --> 01:14:35.199
Conceptually, it's hard for people to get wrapped their arms around,

1438
01:14:35.439 --> 01:14:39.319
you know, bonds upright down, bonds down, rates up. Someone

1439
01:14:39.920 --> 01:14:44.359
years ago told me it picture a teeter totter with

1440
01:14:44.560 --> 01:14:48.560
bonds on one side and interest rates on the other side. No,

1441
01:14:49.479 --> 01:14:52.920
that's an easy way to visualize it. So if bond

1442
01:14:53.000 --> 01:14:55.439
prices are coming down, interest rates are going up and

1443
01:14:55.680 --> 01:14:58.039
vice versa. So it's kind of a kind of an

1444
01:14:58.079 --> 01:15:01.159
easy way to look at it. CrowdStrike, we all know

1445
01:15:01.199 --> 01:15:04.319
about CrowdStrike. A week ago last Friday, they shut the

1446
01:15:04.319 --> 01:15:11.479
world down with their flawed software upgrade Monday. Last week Monday,

1447
01:15:11.520 --> 01:15:14.399
the stock tried to rebound from the massive sell off

1448
01:15:14.399 --> 01:15:17.840
the week before, but moved more than ten percent lower

1449
01:15:17.880 --> 01:15:22.840
on Tuesday on news Delta has retained Legal Counsole to

1450
01:15:22.960 --> 01:15:27.079
sue CrowdStrike. I didn't see that coming. Delta lost so

1451
01:15:27.199 --> 01:15:30.600
much money with all of their computers being down that

1452
01:15:30.640 --> 01:15:33.079
they've actually obtained Legal Console and they're going to sue

1453
01:15:33.239 --> 01:15:36.800
CrowdStrike and Microsoft over the damage that was done. And

1454
01:15:37.279 --> 01:15:40.079
my first thought was, Okay, well that's Delta. How many

1455
01:15:40.119 --> 01:15:43.600
others were impacted by that? And how big of a

1456
01:15:43.640 --> 01:15:46.479
deal can this be? Stock hit a new low for

1457
01:15:46.520 --> 01:15:49.600
the year CrowdStrike down nearly fifty percent.

1458
01:15:49.840 --> 01:15:51.880
I mean we were even impacted at the office.

1459
01:15:52.159 --> 01:15:55.159
Yeah, I mean Johnson and Johnson at three M are

1460
01:15:55.199 --> 01:16:01.159
two companies who have been under this lawsuit weight for years,

1461
01:16:01.720 --> 01:16:04.960
and this can go on for years. We know how

1462
01:16:05.000 --> 01:16:07.159
slow the legal system moves.

1463
01:16:07.439 --> 01:16:09.760
Just finally three M's coming out of the woodworks there.

1464
01:16:09.960 --> 01:16:12.600
Three M has been amazing, and we'll talk about that

1465
01:16:12.680 --> 01:16:15.680
in a second. But the CrowdStrike is this is just

1466
01:16:15.720 --> 01:16:20.039
the beginning, it seems to me of problems that they're

1467
01:16:20.039 --> 01:16:25.399
going to be facing. The stock down fifty percent. Very tempting, right,

1468
01:16:25.600 --> 01:16:26.239
very tempting.

1469
01:16:26.680 --> 01:16:30.399
But I mean that RSI is crazy. You're at like

1470
01:16:30.479 --> 01:16:33.640
a fifteen on the relative strength index. I mean that

1471
01:16:33.680 --> 01:16:37.920
thing is it seems like you can't go lower forever.

1472
01:16:38.760 --> 01:16:40.520
No, and not I agree with you. I agree, But

1473
01:16:40.560 --> 01:16:42.880
don't ask good don't ask Lululemon about.

1474
01:16:42.600 --> 01:16:44.520
That, right, don't want to talk about that one.

1475
01:16:44.720 --> 01:16:48.319
Lum was a five hundred dollars stock and the darling

1476
01:16:48.399 --> 01:16:52.319
of retailers, and it just keeps getting sold off, it

1477
01:16:52.399 --> 01:16:57.319
keeps getting downgraded, discontinues to plung just now down fifty

1478
01:16:57.479 --> 01:17:00.039
five percent this year to the lowest level sent.

1479
01:17:00.920 --> 01:17:01.560
So the action.

1480
01:17:03.439 --> 01:17:04.239
Twenty twenty two.

1481
01:17:04.279 --> 01:17:08.439
The pandemic because we always joke about, wait a second,

1482
01:17:08.479 --> 01:17:10.359
it's the same price it was when all of their

1483
01:17:10.399 --> 01:17:14.520
stores were closed. Right, It's hard to wrap your arms

1484
01:17:14.560 --> 01:17:15.960
around how that's even possible.

1485
01:17:16.159 --> 01:17:18.439
That's kind of a lot of those things. It's like

1486
01:17:18.479 --> 01:17:21.000
American Airlines. We've talked about a lot of those companies

1487
01:17:21.000 --> 01:17:23.159
that it just doesn't make a lot of sense.

1488
01:17:23.239 --> 01:17:26.239
And you know what didn't make too much sense to

1489
01:17:26.279 --> 01:17:31.760
me was DraftKings today airported some earnings first profitbal quarter ever,

1490
01:17:32.359 --> 01:17:34.039
and they were down what ten percent today?

1491
01:17:34.319 --> 01:17:36.960
Yeah, they missed on draft kings down on Friday, down

1492
01:17:37.000 --> 01:17:37.800
ten percent.

1493
01:17:37.479 --> 01:17:40.279
They missed on revenue, but they did become profitable for

1494
01:17:40.319 --> 01:17:43.359
the first time its histories. In the company's history. It

1495
01:17:43.479 --> 01:17:47.439
beat on bottom line estimates that the investors rewarded them

1496
01:17:47.479 --> 01:17:48.600
with a ten percent drop.

1497
01:17:48.880 --> 01:17:50.920
What if. There's probably a lot of gambling going on

1498
01:17:50.960 --> 01:17:51.880
with the Olympics, right.

1499
01:17:51.800 --> 01:17:55.239
And that's what Dylan was alluding to earlier in our day.

1500
01:17:55.279 --> 01:17:57.439
We were talking about the fact that not only the Olympics,

1501
01:17:57.439 --> 01:17:59.439
you have football about to start, you have the Baseball

1502
01:17:59.479 --> 01:18:03.560
Olympics about to come, Baseball baseball playoffs set the start

1503
01:18:03.560 --> 01:18:06.840
in October, You're gonna have NBA about to start in October.

1504
01:18:07.399 --> 01:18:09.199
I mean, it's the best time. We're coming out of

1505
01:18:09.239 --> 01:18:11.560
the worst time for sports and going into the best time. Yeah,

1506
01:18:12.079 --> 01:18:14.760
and so now is the time you're thinking about it. It's like, yeah,

1507
01:18:14.760 --> 01:18:17.479
it'd be a great time. But investors did not think

1508
01:18:17.520 --> 01:18:20.720
that way today, So it was a little interesting. Obviously,

1509
01:18:21.359 --> 01:18:23.920
reports in the overall economy, people may be thinking that

1510
01:18:24.039 --> 01:18:26.720
they're not gonna bet if a recession comes, which I

1511
01:18:26.760 --> 01:18:28.960
think that's just as true as people not using door

1512
01:18:29.000 --> 01:18:31.560
dash if a recession comes, it's not they're still going

1513
01:18:31.640 --> 01:18:34.159
to use it because acohol. Yeah, I mean it's not

1514
01:18:34.239 --> 01:18:34.920
something you need.

1515
01:18:35.000 --> 01:18:38.600
Right, beer is something that go does well during right.

1516
01:18:38.560 --> 01:18:41.199
And and the cheap beer, not the premium beer.

1517
01:18:41.319 --> 01:18:42.439
No, no cheap beer.

1518
01:18:42.560 --> 01:18:45.279
And so it's so funny where like people are like, well,

1519
01:18:45.640 --> 01:18:47.840
they're only good about things they need. It's like kind

1520
01:18:47.880 --> 01:18:50.920
of right, there's ones that are needs to people.

1521
01:18:51.760 --> 01:18:55.800
No, you're absolutely right everybody. Yet I remember when my

1522
01:18:55.960 --> 01:18:58.520
daughter went to college. I gave her a credit card

1523
01:18:59.000 --> 01:19:03.760
and I said, only four emergencies right in the first month.

1524
01:19:03.800 --> 01:19:07.399
It was twenty three hundred dollars. Wow, I know. And

1525
01:19:07.479 --> 01:19:10.560
so it turns out that some genes at sax fifth

1526
01:19:10.560 --> 01:19:13.399
Avenue are emergency things. You needed to have them, didn't

1527
01:19:13.399 --> 01:19:15.640
have them. So we had a long talk about that.

1528
01:19:15.680 --> 01:19:18.239
The credit card got got captured and returned to me

1529
01:19:18.359 --> 01:19:20.600
and that was the end of that. But Todd, that

1530
01:19:20.680 --> 01:19:24.279
goes right to your thing about different people have different

1531
01:19:24.319 --> 01:19:26.000
ideas of what necessities are.

1532
01:19:26.640 --> 01:19:29.319
Yeah, I know we're going back to the fine plan here,

1533
01:19:29.319 --> 01:19:31.479
but I you know, with the budgeting of people, it's

1534
01:19:31.520 --> 01:19:34.279
so funny where I'll ask them my first question is

1535
01:19:34.279 --> 01:19:36.560
always how much you spend per month, and I normally

1536
01:19:36.600 --> 01:19:41.039
get hit with you know, my mortgage is this. I'm like, okay,

1537
01:19:41.039 --> 01:19:43.520
I'm gonna stop you there, because if you're adding things up,

1538
01:19:44.079 --> 01:19:45.880
I believe that's the wrong way to do it. You

1539
01:19:45.880 --> 01:19:49.000
should be working backwards. So, if you're having four thousand

1540
01:19:49.039 --> 01:19:53.039
dollars coming into you per month after taxes, how much

1541
01:19:53.079 --> 01:19:56.319
of that is left over? Meaning do you save anything?

1542
01:19:57.199 --> 01:19:59.680
If there's no saving anywhere, if there's no contributions to

1543
01:19:59.720 --> 01:20:02.399
any of vestment accounts, that means you're spending it.

1544
01:20:02.760 --> 01:20:03.000
Right.

1545
01:20:03.640 --> 01:20:06.119
If there's nothing left over and you're not saving anything anywhere,

1546
01:20:06.199 --> 01:20:08.840
then you're spending four thousand. But that same person will

1547
01:20:08.840 --> 01:20:11.399
tell me I'm spending about twenty five hundred a month. Okay,

1548
01:20:11.439 --> 01:20:13.439
So you said that you can put away fifteen hundred

1549
01:20:13.439 --> 01:20:15.039
a month then, and then when I tell them that,

1550
01:20:15.039 --> 01:20:17.319
they're like, oh no, no, I can't do I could

1551
01:20:17.359 --> 01:20:19.039
never do fifteen hundred a month. It's like, okay, well,

1552
01:20:19.039 --> 01:20:21.159
then you're not spending twenty five hundred a month, right.

1553
01:20:21.199 --> 01:20:24.279
And so when you're doing budgeting, don't just think about

1554
01:20:24.319 --> 01:20:27.039
your needs your necessities. You have to think about your wants.

1555
01:20:27.039 --> 01:20:28.800
And normally your wants are way more than you ever

1556
01:20:28.840 --> 01:20:31.640
think they are because you don't want to think about them.

1557
01:20:32.079 --> 01:20:34.079
Right, A lot of people have no idea how much respect.

1558
01:20:34.119 --> 01:20:42.039
In my experience, I like everybody, really like everybody. I'm

1559
01:20:42.039 --> 01:20:44.039
not sure to what I want to use. The most

1560
01:20:44.039 --> 01:20:46.720
impressive thing about the financial plan to me, the ones

1561
01:20:46.760 --> 01:20:49.880
I've sat in on are it forces you to sit

1562
01:20:49.920 --> 01:20:53.239
down and find out what you're spending. But I don't

1563
01:20:53.239 --> 01:20:56.600
think every person has any idea. Well, I have enough.

1564
01:20:57.319 --> 01:21:01.880
I didn't spend everything I brought in. How's that so

1565
01:21:02.239 --> 01:21:04.560
it is? And if you think about it, just off

1566
01:21:04.600 --> 01:21:06.119
the top of your head, how much money do you

1567
01:21:06.159 --> 01:21:08.800
spend these months? Anyone listening out there, think about that.

1568
01:21:08.840 --> 01:21:10.960
Think about how quickly you could come and put that number.

1569
01:21:11.159 --> 01:21:14.359
There are some people that have spread cheating are very organized,

1570
01:21:14.359 --> 01:21:17.319
and you can come out I get that, But people.

1571
01:21:17.279 --> 01:21:19.600
Even those people, I'm like, Okay, well what.

1572
01:21:19.439 --> 01:21:20.640
About your Netflix subscription?

1573
01:21:20.680 --> 01:21:22.800
What I know, all the subscriptions, I mean, all those

1574
01:21:22.880 --> 01:21:24.680
line items in your excel has to add up to

1575
01:21:24.720 --> 01:21:27.239
what you're bringing in each month, right, there has to.

1576
01:21:27.920 --> 01:21:30.760
If you're saying you're spending twenty five hundred and you're

1577
01:21:30.800 --> 01:21:33.800
bringing in four thousand, where's the other fifteen hundred going

1578
01:21:33.840 --> 01:21:35.439
for if you don't have that accounted in your excel?

1579
01:21:35.600 --> 01:21:38.720
Can how organize you are? You're you're missing something, right,

1580
01:21:38.920 --> 01:21:41.520
Money's going somewhere and you're not noticing it, and it happens

1581
01:21:41.560 --> 01:21:42.680
to more people than you know.

1582
01:21:42.840 --> 01:21:44.960
It forces you to do that. It's force you to

1583
01:21:45.000 --> 01:21:47.239
sit down and actually look at your spending, which is

1584
01:21:47.399 --> 01:21:48.439
pretty pretty cool.

1585
01:21:48.520 --> 01:21:51.159
Yeah, and then we can play with some games like, Okay,

1586
01:21:51.239 --> 01:21:52.960
what happens if your mortgage is paid off in five

1587
01:21:53.039 --> 01:21:55.680
years and you save eleven hundred dollars a month, we

1588
01:21:55.680 --> 01:21:57.680
can put that into the plan and would automatic get

1589
01:21:57.680 --> 01:22:00.520
deducted in five years. Right, say you're taking care of

1590
01:22:00.560 --> 01:22:03.000
children right now and that's costing you fifteen hundred a month,

1591
01:22:03.000 --> 01:22:04.960
and you're not gonna take care of children in retirement,

1592
01:22:05.039 --> 01:22:07.479
so we can plan that that expense is going away too,

1593
01:22:08.039 --> 01:22:09.800
or maybe we don't plan it. Maybe you just stop

1594
01:22:10.159 --> 01:22:12.319
spending on child and that fifteen hundred month goes to

1595
01:22:12.359 --> 01:22:13.079
travel instead.

1596
01:22:13.399 --> 01:22:13.640
Right.

1597
01:22:13.720 --> 01:22:16.239
But the only way to actually think about this on

1598
01:22:16.239 --> 01:22:17.600
a high level is to come in and do a

1599
01:22:17.600 --> 01:22:21.640
financial plan, like actually, come in understand, Oh wait a minute,

1600
01:22:21.720 --> 01:22:24.439
healthcare has been deducted from my paycheck. My entire life.

1601
01:22:24.520 --> 01:22:26.399
Now I'm gonna actually have to start paying that. That's

1602
01:22:26.399 --> 01:22:29.159
got to be embedded into my monthly living expense because

1603
01:22:29.159 --> 01:22:31.399
when I've been doing budgeting all these months, I'm not

1604
01:22:31.439 --> 01:22:34.560
accounting for healthcare because that's already coming out of my net.

1605
01:22:35.199 --> 01:22:37.039
So now that you are living off, you're not living

1606
01:22:37.039 --> 01:22:39.079
on just four thousand, you have to also account for

1607
01:22:39.119 --> 01:22:40.039
a healthcare budget.

1608
01:22:40.359 --> 01:22:40.479
Right.

1609
01:22:40.520 --> 01:22:42.479
If you also want to travel, well, you're not traveling

1610
01:22:42.560 --> 01:22:44.920
right now, that's not embedded into your living expense, So

1611
01:22:44.960 --> 01:22:46.880
we have to add a travel budget on top of that.

1612
01:22:47.319 --> 01:22:49.479
So what if I only get takeout six ninths and

1613
01:22:49.479 --> 01:22:50.560
weeks get to the seven? Right?

1614
01:22:50.680 --> 01:22:55.119
Yeah, you gotta look at it from just a high level.

1615
01:22:55.119 --> 01:22:57.920
It's not just your living expense in retirement. It's gonna

1616
01:22:57.920 --> 01:23:00.760
be other things on top of your life living expense.

1617
01:23:01.000 --> 01:23:04.279
But the exercise of actually sitting down and determining what

1618
01:23:04.319 --> 01:23:06.680
you're spending on a monthly basis is pretty cool.

1619
01:23:06.520 --> 01:23:08.880
And what your goals are. So many people are like,

1620
01:23:08.920 --> 01:23:10.680
you know, I haven't actually thought about like how much

1621
01:23:10.720 --> 01:23:11.439
do I want to leave?

1622
01:23:11.640 --> 01:23:11.880
Is there?

1623
01:23:12.079 --> 01:23:13.680
Do I want to leave it at all? If I

1624
01:23:13.720 --> 01:23:15.279
don't want to leave any money? How much do I

1625
01:23:15.319 --> 01:23:17.000
have to spend in order to make that kind of

1626
01:23:17.399 --> 01:23:19.960
you know, limit the amount of money I'm going to leave.

1627
01:23:20.399 --> 01:23:22.119
Right some people that are like, I want to bounce

1628
01:23:22.119 --> 01:23:23.960
my less chick, and then they're not spending any money

1629
01:23:23.960 --> 01:23:26.520
because they're super frugal. It's like, Okay, well, actually you're

1630
01:23:26.560 --> 01:23:27.880
going to give a lot of money to the next

1631
01:23:27.920 --> 01:23:30.039
generation on the on the route you were in, so

1632
01:23:30.199 --> 01:23:32.279
you you either spend it or start finding some charities

1633
01:23:32.279 --> 01:23:34.520
to give it to because you're going to leave a

1634
01:23:34.520 --> 01:23:35.840
lot of money to your airs. And you know how

1635
01:23:35.840 --> 01:23:37.760
many people you mean, Dave, you know this, how many

1636
01:23:37.800 --> 01:23:40.239
people have huge portfolios and say, you know, I don't

1637
01:23:40.239 --> 01:23:42.560
want to leave a dime. I want to use it all.

1638
01:23:42.600 --> 01:23:44.520
I worked hard for it. Then you better use it.

1639
01:23:44.840 --> 01:23:46.720
I have a friend like that with eleven million dollars

1640
01:23:46.760 --> 01:23:48.479
net worth. He said, I'm not going to leave anything

1641
01:23:48.479 --> 01:23:50.199
to my kids. You know, I'm going to spend it all.

1642
01:23:50.199 --> 01:23:53.359
And I said, they you're not because you're one of

1643
01:23:53.439 --> 01:23:56.039
the cheapest people I've ever known in my life, which

1644
01:23:56.039 --> 01:23:58.600
is why you have so much money. And there's absolutely

1645
01:23:58.680 --> 01:24:01.760
no way you're going to spend even the interest is

1646
01:24:01.880 --> 01:24:06.560
jorney and let alone all of it maybe maybe the

1647
01:24:06.600 --> 01:24:09.079
plans we have need to be rethought. We'll be back

1648
01:24:09.079 --> 01:24:11.560
with the final segment of The Money Matter Show. We

1649
01:24:11.640 --> 01:24:14.520
appreciate your listening to us. Dean had to run off

1650
01:24:14.560 --> 01:24:17.079
and I took dealing with him. I guess. So it's

1651
01:24:17.159 --> 01:24:19.840
just the three amigos here and we're happy to bring

1652
01:24:19.880 --> 01:24:22.359
you the remainder of The Money Matter Show. And again,

1653
01:24:22.479 --> 01:24:25.239
thanks for joining us. We appreciate it. Talk to you soon.

1654
01:24:25.680 --> 01:24:27.960
Welcome back to The Money Matter Show. My name is Toddlick.

1655
01:24:28.000 --> 01:24:30.399
I'm here with Sebastian Borsini and David Sherwick.

1656
01:24:30.439 --> 01:24:35.479
So soft spoken, geez, no get coming like okay, hanging

1657
01:24:35.520 --> 01:24:40.840
out here, not dynamic like you normally are in one

1658
01:24:40.880 --> 01:24:45.640
of those days. Huh No, No you are now.

1659
01:24:48.560 --> 01:24:51.359
Yeah, I'm not going to be here next week because

1660
01:24:51.399 --> 01:24:53.479
I will be running in a marathon.

1661
01:24:53.560 --> 01:24:55.479
No, you're running just Ventura again.

1662
01:24:55.920 --> 01:24:59.720
No, this is in Seattle. Yeahton N's in North ben Actually.

1663
01:24:59.760 --> 01:25:02.239
Just a downhill one. Yes, how tough could that be?

1664
01:25:03.880 --> 01:25:06.359
Run down hill?

1665
01:25:06.680 --> 01:25:09.279
See you're considering he's running faster than I drive my car.

1666
01:25:11.199 --> 01:25:12.159
Good luck to you, Todd.

1667
01:25:12.279 --> 01:25:14.960
We've been enjoying the Olympics, which has been really fun.

1668
01:25:16.840 --> 01:25:20.279
It's crazy how many different sports there are in the Olympics.

1669
01:25:20.439 --> 01:25:22.199
There are a lot of different sports.

1670
01:25:22.279 --> 01:25:23.479
Shuttocock your favorite?

1671
01:25:23.880 --> 01:25:26.800
I don't. I'm not watching the Olympics. I don't have

1672
01:25:26.840 --> 01:25:27.399
any interesting.

1673
01:25:28.840 --> 01:25:29.680
No, I never heard of it.

1674
01:25:29.680 --> 01:25:30.399
It's a great game.

1675
01:25:30.680 --> 01:25:31.479
Is that badminton?

1676
01:25:32.199 --> 01:25:34.479
Yeah, technically it's called shuttlecock.

1677
01:25:34.600 --> 01:25:36.720
Yeah, I get it. I get it now. I like

1678
01:25:36.800 --> 01:25:39.880
to track and field, and I might tune in for

1679
01:25:39.960 --> 01:25:43.319
some of that. I was the announcer at my daughter's

1680
01:25:43.319 --> 01:25:46.199
swim team for five years, so I'm swim teamed out.

1681
01:25:46.399 --> 01:25:48.840
I never want to watch another swimming event in my

1682
01:25:49.000 --> 01:25:52.520
Lastics was great. Not something I want to watch. I

1683
01:25:52.560 --> 01:25:55.319
don't have any interesting one of the few people in

1684
01:25:55.319 --> 01:25:55.600
the world.

1685
01:25:55.680 --> 01:25:56.520
What about breakdance?

1686
01:25:56.960 --> 01:26:00.199
Breakdancing doesn't do much for me. Track and field they

1687
01:26:00.239 --> 01:26:03.600
call it breaking, Yes, it is, I think breaking. No,

1688
01:26:03.680 --> 01:26:05.560
I get that, d I think the track and field

1689
01:26:05.640 --> 01:26:06.439
is the last.

1690
01:26:06.239 --> 01:26:11.880
You It's ridiculous. How many subjective sports are yes, I

1691
01:26:11.880 --> 01:26:14.199
mean judging, Yeah, yes I do.

1692
01:26:14.439 --> 01:26:16.920
That's you know, tuning in and watch men beat up women.

1693
01:26:16.960 --> 01:26:17.880
Is that what you want to want to do?

1694
01:26:18.600 --> 01:26:21.680
I mean even boxing is subjective. If you can't knock them,

1695
01:26:21.720 --> 01:26:24.000
if you don't knock them, out. Yeah. I mean there's

1696
01:26:24.199 --> 01:26:26.640
a lot of sports that are subjective. Yeah that way.

1697
01:26:27.880 --> 01:26:31.880
I mean, most of posts also have referees, so they

1698
01:26:31.880 --> 01:26:32.960
have impacts on the game.

1699
01:26:33.439 --> 01:26:35.800
A couple of our reports. So let's look at a

1700
01:26:35.800 --> 01:26:36.920
few different edge some.

1701
01:26:37.880 --> 01:26:40.359
I was gonna talk about Carvana, Go ahead, Did you

1702
01:26:40.399 --> 01:26:41.399
know what they did this week?

1703
01:26:41.520 --> 01:26:41.560
No?

1704
01:26:41.760 --> 01:26:43.840
They were up ten percent the whole week. Oh my goodness,

1705
01:26:43.880 --> 01:26:46.399
which is pretty ridiculous to me, just because that stuck

1706
01:26:46.680 --> 01:26:48.800
was dead probably about a year ago.

1707
01:26:48.800 --> 01:26:51.159
The company was out of business, pretty much out of business.

1708
01:26:51.159 --> 01:26:55.159
And I don't see why or how the company's doing good.

1709
01:26:55.359 --> 01:26:57.760
I mean, maybe because interest rates are lowering, more people

1710
01:26:57.760 --> 01:26:59.199
are going to finance cars.

1711
01:26:59.199 --> 01:27:02.159
I don't understand it, kind of like Abercromian Fitch, right,

1712
01:27:03.159 --> 01:27:06.279
but we did find out about that. Your girlfriend gave us.

1713
01:27:06.199 --> 01:27:08.119
Some insight there, Dylan's girlfriend.

1714
01:27:08.239 --> 01:27:09.680
But oh, Dylan's girlfriend, that's right.

1715
01:27:09.800 --> 01:27:11.159
That was an interesting point.

1716
01:27:11.239 --> 01:27:14.640
It was, No, it was Abercromian Fisher has gone up

1717
01:27:14.680 --> 01:27:17.159
with three hundred percent in the last twelve months. Carvana.

1718
01:27:17.239 --> 01:27:19.039
I can't even imagine what that's up in the last

1719
01:27:19.039 --> 01:27:21.439
twelve months, some ridiculous number.

1720
01:27:21.680 --> 01:27:24.039
We didn't talk about three AM. We said we were going.

1721
01:27:23.920 --> 01:27:26.439
To Yeah, three M was they gave up a small

1722
01:27:26.520 --> 01:27:28.800
part of their recent games last week, but the lagging

1723
01:27:28.880 --> 01:27:32.199
shows have suddenly come alive, moved into first places the

1724
01:27:32.199 --> 01:27:36.119
best performing dovestock this year, the best this year after

1725
01:27:36.159 --> 01:27:39.079
having been at the bottom of that list for two

1726
01:27:39.239 --> 01:27:42.600
or three years. This is a company that still faces

1727
01:27:43.279 --> 01:27:48.479
a massive litigation risk from various things that are involved in.

1728
01:27:48.560 --> 01:27:52.560
Probably the biggest is the ear plug the military earplug issue.

1729
01:27:52.560 --> 01:27:55.680
But yeah, I'm trying, how do you say that disease?

1730
01:27:55.760 --> 01:27:59.520
Are hearing loss tonightis tonitis?

1731
01:27:59.560 --> 01:28:01.479
I think is the way they pronounced it. I'm not sure,

1732
01:28:02.119 --> 01:28:06.960
but it's a hearing a I'm sorry. Earplugs is one

1733
01:28:07.000 --> 01:28:08.920
of the loss. And they have a myriad.

1734
01:28:09.000 --> 01:28:10.800
I remember seeing the commercials when I was younger.

1735
01:28:10.960 --> 01:28:13.079
They have a myriad for a while. Yeah, they have

1736
01:28:13.119 --> 01:28:15.399
a myriad of major loss is hanging over them. But

1737
01:28:16.159 --> 01:28:20.000
at least for now, the new CEO has has ignited

1738
01:28:20.000 --> 01:28:23.960
a fire, and good for him for now that that

1739
01:28:24.079 --> 01:28:27.279
litigation risk which has been hanging over the company for

1740
01:28:27.359 --> 01:28:30.039
years has has kind of been pushed to sign.

1741
01:28:30.000 --> 01:28:33.359
And like I think, personally, when this kind of goes

1742
01:28:33.479 --> 01:28:36.239
beyond a little high level, three M companies that are

1743
01:28:36.239 --> 01:28:39.680
going through a merger and acquisition, companies that are coming

1744
01:28:39.680 --> 01:28:43.159
out with a new drug. It's so unknown. You you

1745
01:28:43.279 --> 01:28:45.920
have to have a PhD in that industry to really

1746
01:28:46.039 --> 01:28:49.199
understand what the impacts are going to be. You know,

1747
01:28:49.239 --> 01:28:53.760
what are the potential written It's so complicated that you're right, Dave.

1748
01:28:53.880 --> 01:28:55.840
The litigations Do they hurt them in the future?

1749
01:28:55.880 --> 01:28:56.319
Do they not?

1750
01:28:56.399 --> 01:28:58.439
Are they going away? Are you are you?

1751
01:28:59.119 --> 01:29:02.000
Can you settle it for pocket change? You can pocket

1752
01:29:02.039 --> 01:29:04.359
change being the district has this.

1753
01:29:04.439 --> 01:29:06.880
Rules and the district court has different rules, and you know,

1754
01:29:07.239 --> 01:29:11.880
it's it's hard to be invested in very complicated stocks.

1755
01:29:11.880 --> 01:29:14.560
Sometimes you just want to find the quality, right, yeah,

1756
01:29:14.600 --> 01:29:16.960
and three have it. It's it's doing great, but it's

1757
01:29:16.960 --> 01:29:19.840
not one that probably was worth the risk, even though

1758
01:29:19.840 --> 01:29:22.119
it is obviously now hindsight twenty twenty.

1759
01:29:22.000 --> 01:29:24.439
Yes, top twenty five percent in the last ninety days.

1760
01:29:24.720 --> 01:29:26.119
Ago you're looking at it is like, yeah, but it

1761
01:29:26.159 --> 01:29:27.359
could have also gone the otherwise.

1762
01:29:27.600 --> 01:29:30.319
It's absolutely been dead money for years. Yeah, for years,

1763
01:29:30.359 --> 01:29:31.800
So how are you going to know that all of

1764
01:29:31.840 --> 01:29:32.239
a sudden.

1765
01:29:32.319 --> 01:29:33.960
So for the people that are like, oh I missed out,

1766
01:29:33.960 --> 01:29:35.680
I need to get in and now hold on.

1767
01:29:35.720 --> 01:29:38.880
Ye yep, pull back, pull back a little bit. Hey

1768
01:29:39.199 --> 01:29:42.399
a merk stock was up eighteen percent for the year,

1769
01:29:42.439 --> 01:29:45.039
one of the strongest in the Dow. On Tuesday, we

1770
01:29:45.199 --> 01:29:49.199
learned shipments of guards Sil that's a vaccine that's important

1771
01:29:49.199 --> 01:29:53.079
in their Chinese market, decline in the second quarter, sparking

1772
01:29:53.119 --> 01:29:57.039
investors concern shares. We're down nine percent Guardess Still, it

1773
01:29:57.119 --> 01:30:04.960
prevents cancer cancer caused by the human papal virus. It's

1774
01:30:05.000 --> 01:30:08.520
been been one of Mark's top growth drivers, aside from

1775
01:30:08.560 --> 01:30:11.720
the K Trudeau, which of course is cancer immunotherapy, the

1776
01:30:11.720 --> 01:30:15.840
world's top prescription medicine, with much of the increase coming

1777
01:30:15.840 --> 01:30:18.760
from demand in China. And they're saying China is well.

1778
01:30:18.800 --> 01:30:21.880
We know the Chinese economy is in the toilet because

1779
01:30:21.920 --> 01:30:25.079
of their their real estate bubble, which is unlike anything

1780
01:30:25.119 --> 01:30:27.880
that's ever been seen. It'll be interesting to see how

1781
01:30:27.920 --> 01:30:28.560
that plays out.

1782
01:30:28.640 --> 01:30:31.760
Hey, you're doing a little better. They're they're working on it.

1783
01:30:32.640 --> 01:30:35.359
They're economical. Numbers have kind of come back a little bit.

1784
01:30:35.359 --> 01:30:36.560
They have more exports now.

1785
01:30:36.880 --> 01:30:40.960
So get this. South Pasadena, California, last week became the

1786
01:30:40.960 --> 01:30:44.640
first police department in the nation to replace all of

1787
01:30:44.680 --> 01:30:46.680
their police cards with Tesla's.

1788
01:30:46.520 --> 01:30:48.680
Wow, all of them yep.

1789
01:30:49.239 --> 01:30:51.800
And so here's here's what I tell you about South Pasadena.

1790
01:30:51.800 --> 01:30:54.279
You can outrun them, but if you head out into

1791
01:30:54.359 --> 01:30:57.439
the desert, I think eventually they're gonna run out of juice.

1792
01:30:57.640 --> 01:30:59.479
I think we were talking about this, how Anaheim has

1793
01:30:59.479 --> 01:31:03.319
like this, like South Pasadena. How big is the South Pasadica?

1794
01:31:03.359 --> 01:31:04.640
Twenty cop twenty cars?

1795
01:31:04.760 --> 01:31:10.119
Okay, yea, the South North like if Anaheim did, it

1796
01:31:10.159 --> 01:31:11.960
would be crazy because I'm sure they have like at

1797
01:31:12.000 --> 01:31:12.880
least one hundred cars.

1798
01:31:13.319 --> 01:31:15.039
I'm sure they have more. Think about all the people

1799
01:31:15.079 --> 01:31:16.319
that come into it.

1800
01:31:17.359 --> 01:31:20.399
Yeah, that was absolutely that's economy is not doing bad,

1801
01:31:20.960 --> 01:31:23.000
doing poorly? Who Japan?

1802
01:31:23.560 --> 01:31:25.680
Yeah? Yeah, but their their stock market that what it's

1803
01:31:25.720 --> 01:31:27.279
worst day in three years?

1804
01:31:27.399 --> 01:31:32.319
Well, listen to this. It's because Japan's raising rates. Yeah,

1805
01:31:32.439 --> 01:31:35.239
they raised rates. They raised rates first time that they've

1806
01:31:35.279 --> 01:31:35.760
raised rates.

1807
01:31:37.760 --> 01:31:38.239
And China.

1808
01:31:38.279 --> 01:31:40.680
I don't think I've ever been alive in Japan and

1809
01:31:40.800 --> 01:31:41.479
raised Russia?

1810
01:31:41.560 --> 01:31:43.640
Were they negative before this? Before this race?

1811
01:31:44.159 --> 01:31:45.920
It was pretty close. I think it was like negative

1812
01:31:46.239 --> 01:31:49.079
ten and zero. Yeah, it was like a zeroat.

1813
01:31:48.760 --> 01:31:51.439
Like I can't remember a time that I don't think.

1814
01:31:51.880 --> 01:31:54.279
Whatever rose rate. So they finally have inflation, which is

1815
01:31:54.279 --> 01:31:56.000
why it's a good thing for them. They were like,

1816
01:31:56.039 --> 01:31:58.079
finally we have inflation. We've never had inflation for the

1817
01:31:58.159 --> 01:32:01.079
last twenty five years, and so like for everyone saying

1818
01:32:01.119 --> 01:32:03.680
that inflation is a bad thing, it depends on the

1819
01:32:03.680 --> 01:32:04.399
degree of it.

1820
01:32:04.520 --> 01:32:05.680
You have to have something to inflame.

1821
01:32:06.680 --> 01:32:09.039
Want inflation, but you can't have too much where it's

1822
01:32:09.119 --> 01:32:11.720
hurting the public and their their purcharect.

1823
01:32:12.039 --> 01:32:13.800
Todd and I were having a conversation. I was like, Wow,

1824
01:32:13.800 --> 01:32:16.439
their mortgage rates are about three percent right now. That's great,

1825
01:32:16.479 --> 01:32:19.119
and then he reminded me, yeah, but your rental property

1826
01:32:19.199 --> 01:32:19.720
does not.

1827
01:32:19.680 --> 01:32:22.199
Grow you if you don't have inflation, then your house

1828
01:32:22.239 --> 01:32:24.560
doesn't increase in value. So all you're doing is paying

1829
01:32:24.560 --> 01:32:27.520
off your three percent rate. That's all you're doing.

1830
01:32:28.640 --> 01:32:31.720
Speaking of EVS, Tesla has rallied thirty percent in the

1831
01:32:31.760 --> 01:32:35.199
last ninety days, but it was still down twelve percent

1832
01:32:35.239 --> 01:32:38.039
for the year. Stock move higher at the open on

1833
01:32:38.119 --> 01:32:42.319
Monday after Morgan Stanley. Get this, Morgan Stanley named it

1834
01:32:42.479 --> 01:32:47.199
the top pick in the US auto market now full disclosure.

1835
01:32:48.000 --> 01:32:51.680
Their previous top pick was Ford a week ago had

1836
01:32:51.720 --> 01:32:53.479
their worst day in sixteen years.

1837
01:32:55.279 --> 01:32:57.239
Even if they had to replace that one real quick.

1838
01:32:57.520 --> 01:33:00.520
Yeah, I'll tell you your top pick and then autos

1839
01:33:00.520 --> 01:33:02.720
in the space. I think if your top pick was

1840
01:33:02.760 --> 01:33:04.880
one that had their worst day in sixteen years, that's

1841
01:33:04.920 --> 01:33:08.119
your top pick. I'm thinking, I don't want to hear

1842
01:33:08.119 --> 01:33:08.760
your second time.

1843
01:33:09.079 --> 01:33:12.079
Yeah, I don't care, right, My goodness.

1844
01:33:11.760 --> 01:33:13.479
Meta had a great week, Yes they did.

1845
01:33:13.479 --> 01:33:16.039
They hung in there despite some pressure on them after

1846
01:33:16.079 --> 01:33:17.199
the really good earnings.

1847
01:33:17.279 --> 01:33:19.880
DuPont hung in Their company still on trash. Shares pop

1848
01:33:19.960 --> 01:33:23.000
five percent on Wednesday on the backup better than expected results.

1849
01:33:23.159 --> 01:33:26.239
Remember the company is still on track DuPont to split

1850
01:33:26.359 --> 01:33:27.600
into three different companies.

1851
01:33:29.600 --> 01:33:33.159
They do it chemicals, something and something.

1852
01:33:33.039 --> 01:33:35.760
And I think it's I think it's a It's an

1853
01:33:35.800 --> 01:33:40.439
interesting play though. Starbucks came in with an inline quarter

1854
01:33:40.560 --> 01:33:44.800
that they've been struggling primarily because their number one customers

1855
01:33:44.840 --> 01:33:48.199
now China. Their number one market is now China.

1856
01:33:48.600 --> 01:33:51.640
Something that held in this week is Hershey's Hershey was

1857
01:33:51.680 --> 01:33:56.000
amazing crazy? What uh talk a little bit about Hershey?

1858
01:33:56.039 --> 01:33:58.119
Could you watch the closure than I do? I mean

1859
01:33:58.159 --> 01:34:00.479
it was just was it just hung in there each day,

1860
01:34:00.520 --> 01:34:03.079
I mean every day where you saw some cell pressure,

1861
01:34:03.319 --> 01:34:06.199
it didn't really it didn't move every day, it kept it.

1862
01:34:06.199 --> 01:34:09.279
It didn't gain much either, but it's it's been holding

1863
01:34:09.319 --> 01:34:12.720
its gain. It's coming off a really low bottom and

1864
01:34:12.800 --> 01:34:14.880
it's it's it's a right at its two hundred day.

1865
01:34:14.880 --> 01:34:17.439
It's sitting above it now, so it should start to

1866
01:34:17.520 --> 01:34:19.800
trend if it can stay above that two hundred day,

1867
01:34:20.079 --> 01:34:24.439
get some momentum behind it. They're obviously cocoa prices is yeah,

1868
01:34:24.479 --> 01:34:26.479
cocoa prices are going to be very important for them

1869
01:34:26.520 --> 01:34:27.399
not to spike again.

1870
01:34:27.680 --> 01:34:31.000
The docu stock is way down. It's under eight hundred

1871
01:34:31.039 --> 01:34:32.560
and well, I don't know what the highway.

1872
01:34:32.399 --> 01:34:34.680
One of those that you're buying a pandemic level, right, So.

1873
01:34:35.439 --> 01:34:38.720
It's way down because cocoa prices just exploded higher.

1874
01:34:38.800 --> 01:34:41.159
Yeah, they got to you know, like eighty two hundred

1875
01:34:41.199 --> 01:34:41.800
at one point.

1876
01:34:41.840 --> 01:34:44.920
And again their products are considered discretionary, and right now,

1877
01:34:45.039 --> 01:34:46.479
nobody wants discretionary.

1878
01:34:46.520 --> 01:34:49.079
It's so crazy. Actually, know, Coco almost got the twelve

1879
01:34:49.159 --> 01:34:53.600
thousand dollars. It's now seventy five hundred, so almost cut

1880
01:34:53.600 --> 01:34:54.000
in half.

1881
01:34:55.079 --> 01:35:00.159
Still well above word, oh well above strectly.

1882
01:34:59.000 --> 01:35:02.359
Right, But it helped Hershey's come back a little bit here.

1883
01:35:02.720 --> 01:35:05.640
Yeah, Dean talked to his monologu about AMD, which had

1884
01:35:05.680 --> 01:35:10.039
a gray quarter, but it has been one of those

1885
01:35:10.079 --> 01:35:13.000
that have been sold off aggressively twelve percent in the

1886
01:35:13.079 --> 01:35:15.399
last thirty days, but it jumped ten percent. He opened

1887
01:35:15.399 --> 01:35:18.199
on Wednesday, couldn't hold it in.

1888
01:35:18.279 --> 01:35:20.439
Vidio had a better day off of that earning sprint

1889
01:35:20.520 --> 01:35:21.760
than AMD did.

1890
01:35:22.199 --> 01:35:24.760
It did it did, and then but again, some of

1891
01:35:24.760 --> 01:35:27.199
those stocks that you've wanted to own but haven't been

1892
01:35:27.239 --> 01:35:32.439
able to because they are too high. Literally in video AMD,

1893
01:35:33.039 --> 01:35:34.439
some of these are our.

1894
01:35:34.960 --> 01:35:37.800
I mean even even Micron. I remember I was looking

1895
01:35:37.840 --> 01:35:39.760
at Micron about one thirty one forty and I was

1896
01:35:39.840 --> 01:35:42.039
thinking about, maybe it's a good place here. Well, thank

1897
01:35:42.079 --> 01:35:46.840
god I didn't since a ninety now ninety nine getting hammered.

1898
01:35:46.960 --> 01:35:49.079
One of the cool things about Hershey's is that I'm

1899
01:35:49.079 --> 01:35:52.640
pretty sure they owned Reese's Pieces, right, and they have

1900
01:35:52.760 --> 01:35:58.279
this this animal cracker Reese's Pieces dipped snack. It's the

1901
01:35:58.319 --> 01:35:59.399
best thing you gotta go try.

1902
01:36:00.479 --> 01:36:02.319
All right, Well, we've come to the end of another show.

1903
01:36:02.399 --> 01:36:04.399
We thank you for joining us. We all want to

1904
01:36:04.399 --> 01:36:07.600
be happy, we all want to be healthy and a

1905
01:36:07.640 --> 01:36:11.600
Greenberg financial what we really want to be is profitable.

1906
01:36:12.079 --> 01:36:12.920
See you next. Week,