Sept. 29, 2024

Shielding Your Investments: Navigating Election Risks and Market Volatility

Shielding Your Investments: Navigating Election Risks and Market Volatility

In this week’s episode of Money Matters, brought to you by the Greenberg Financial Group, we dive into the latest developments in the world of finance to keep you ahead of the curve. As we approach a volatile election season, we discuss the potential...

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In this week’s episode of Money Matters, brought to you by the Greenberg Financial Group, we dive into the latest developments in the world of finance to keep you ahead of the curve. As we approach a volatile election season, we discuss the potential risks to your portfolio and how to safeguard your investments. With years of expertise in risk mitigation, we’re here to guide you through uncertain times. Plus, we explore the cutting-edge world of quantum computing and the groundbreaking impact it could have on the future of finance. Get ready for an episode packed with actionable insights and exciting breakthroughs!

Transcript
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Good morning everybody.

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It's Sunday morning, eight o'clock right here, seven ninety K

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s tee.

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This is Dan Greenberg and this is your Money Matter Show.

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I appreciate that you listen in every week, or if

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you don't get it on the weekly basis, you get

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it on our iHeartRadio app or our podcast or our website.

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You'll hear it from somewhere. But we try to bring

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you the best information weekly of what to do with

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your money at the most crucial times that we're in.

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Markets continue to go up this week.

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S and P went up a half a percent, the

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Dow went up a half a percent, NAZAK went up

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one percent, Russell was down a half a percent, and

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the equal weighted SMP was up point eight percent for

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the month. That means it Dow's up one point eight,

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s and P five hundred is up one point six,

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the DAZAC is up two point three percent for the month,

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Russell's even and the equal weighted sm P five hundreds

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up one point. So what does that mean? When the

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S and P and the and the equal weighted are

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up to same, that means there's balance. Finally, it's not

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just the tech stocks move and the S and P

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that have been going on, And that's the seven percent difference,

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because the S ANDP for the year is up twenty percent,

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the equal weight is up thirteen point four percent.

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Starting to catch up a little bit.

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On the other side, the dolls up twelve percent for

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the year, Donsdag's up twenty and the wrestle's up almost

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ten percent. So what do you do from here? You know,

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the last couple of weeks, I've told you I've got

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some warning signs out there. The markets are kind of

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churning up here. There's not been any real bad news

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to bring it down, but you know, well, it just

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seems like it's teetering, teetering, and I don't like when

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it's teetering.

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I don't like the feeling of it. You know. I've

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kind of been taking money off the table. We've been

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hedging a little bit.

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We've been buying some inverse funds, and we're gonna wait

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through the election. There's no rush to go. If the

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markets go up like they are, we'll make a little money.

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We just won't make as much. And I'm okay with that.

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I'm okay with that because I want cash in case

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the markets do full. Now, I'm not predicting we have

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a crash. I don't know if we have a crash.

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It could happen, but it has to start with a

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decline before it turns into a crash, and it has

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to start with some type of reason that's going to

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last more than one day, other than one or two

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days down and then back up. It's very easy to

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see from here we can have a three or five

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percent moved down, maybe even seven, ten to twenty percent

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moved down. It could happen. That's when it happens, usually

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in the month of October. But there has to be

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a reason for it. It bothers me as you know

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that the Fed lowered interest rates right half a percent,

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they're gonna parably lower them and get a half a percent.

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So what do they know about the economy that maybe

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we don't know or we don't see, or they're going

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to change numbers down the road like they always do.

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Not sure, I just know there's divergencies in my technical analysis.

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The fundamental analysis has changed with them loan interest rates,

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I know, and the history has told me when they

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first lower rates, the markets go up a little bit more.

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But it's not too long after that that they come down.

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We know that the earnings power is getting less. We

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know that the consumers have more on credit cards than

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they ever have, and that becomes a problem. That becomes

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a problem, you know, in the political years, so everything

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gets skewed a little bit. You know, everyone tells you

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how great it should be, and how great everything's going

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to be, or how wonderful the world is going to be,

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and how far, how much further you know, we have

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to go. And what's really interesting is watching the Democrats

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point to the Dow. But when Trump did it, they

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didn't care. But when they do it, they care. Listen,

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it always matters. Obviously, lots of people's money in the

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pension wants to see markets go up. It makes their

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statements go up, makes their net worth go up. But

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it's interesting how very few people in four one K

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plans understand how to take money off the table. Understand

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as the markets are going up, it's better to reduce

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your percentage to risk. Then when the markets start turning,

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and then there's a reason for it. You know, it's

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just risk reward, and I think the reward is less

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than the risk right now. So if the risk is

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greater than the reward. I reduce my exposure when we

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go if the markets come down, and they do, and

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they always do it sometime from some level, and I

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think the reward is greater than the risk, and obviously

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I go back in and I I increase my risk.

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Where to do it? Where to do I don't know.

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You'll see the tech stocks have been you know, semiconductors,

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they've been trading back and forth, you know, and the

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video has gotten back up to one twenty five, you know,

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when twenty seven or so in here, and then then

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you know twice now it's falling back down to once

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under one hundred, the second time under one ten, the

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third time under one ten, and then they rally back up.

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Trading ranges are very very prevalent when markets are just

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churning and money is going into other areas, and that's

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kind of what we have right now. You got to

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understand how to mitigate risk. You have to understand how

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to put your portfolio together. You have to understand how

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to reduce your stress during these times. So many people

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have so much stress and angst over this election. They

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have definitive reasons of why they should be a buyer

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or seller. They have definitive reasons of why they should

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vote for one person or the other. They have definitive reasons.

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Which is really what makes it really crazy, is well,

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if Harris gets in, it's the end of democracy. But

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if Trump gets in, it's the end of democracy. And

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they give you these litany of reasons of why each

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one is going to destroy democracy. Well, if we're sitting

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here as Americans and we keep hearing that, we go, well,

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I guess we're doomed. I guess we're done. I guess

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whoever gets in. If one side is right in the

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and the other side right, there's gonna we're gonna have

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a We're gonna be uh in trouble.

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See.

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I believe the opposite. I don't think democracy is dead.

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I think the people rise up. I think we swing.

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We definitely swing the pendulum from one side to the other.

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I think the media swings it. I think what people

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listen to swing it. I mean, at the end of

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the day, everything's got to come back to pretty much

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a little left or a little right for us to

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go ahead and succeed. That's what it comes down to.

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If we're going to succeed as a country, though, we

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need to start looking at our economy first, and whenever

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like get you know, try to get these political reasons

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of why I want to vote for Trump over Harris,

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I talk about the economy, and I don't understand how

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other than the fact they just hate Trump, that they

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can discuss the fact that they think that they can

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talk how the future is going to be great and

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we can't go back and talk about like the last

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four years everything they've done is great, But then they

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talk about how it's not great and they're going to

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go forward. It's very confusing, and all the selling is hope.

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They're not selling economics. It's real simple. One person is

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going to raise taxes and one person's going to lower taxes.

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One person's gonna stimulate the economy by lowering taxes and

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making regulations less, putting more money into the pockets of

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people that are earning it. The other is going to

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try to go ahead with their same bull crap. Our

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fair share. Everyone's got to pay their fair share. Corporations

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have to pay more, billionaires have to pay more. Well,

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you know what, there's not that many billionaires. Okay, there

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might be seventeen hundred billionaires in the United States maybe,

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And I promise you they all have money all over

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the world. You're not a billionaire and have all your

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money in in a bank here in the United States

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or broke it firm. You have it everywhere, and most

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of it is probably real estate in different places all

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around the world.

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So if you're trying to say I'm.

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Going to go ahead and tax them on the unrealized gains,

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it's never gonna go through. So stop talking unrealistic. It's

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an unrealistic game plan that you're actually going ahead and

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making the American people think that they don't know what

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they're talking about. Oh yeah, that sounds great. They're fair share.

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I just want one news media reporter to ask, what

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is that fair share?

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What is fair share mean?

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Where fifty five percent of Americans don't pay tax and

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forty five percent of the Americans pay tax and basically

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the top ten percent pay all the tax. Is that

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what they mean by fair share? I know they break

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it out and say, well, these billionaires they play a

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less of a tax a tax percentage than the other people.

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And then this is the part that does it that

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that really bothers me is that the people interviewing the

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people that that are talking or social media. They don't

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get it. They don't get the laws allow people that

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have money, who create, who build, who do the things

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that make money. The politicians have given them tax breaks

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in order for them to do it. Real estate is

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the biggest tax break you can have. You get the depreciation,

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you get the write offs, you get all those things.

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That's why they do it. As the building's appreciating and

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unless you sell it, you don't pay taxes. And if

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you sell it and you do an exchange, those taxes

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just roll over. You don't pay them. And then when

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you pass away, the person that inherits all that gets

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a step up basis. I can't put it any simpler

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than that. Everybody pretty much ninety percent of rich people

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really rich people. And I don't know what you can

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say a rich let's just say over five million, ten million,

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fifty million, one hundred million.

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A billion billionaire have real estate. They have real estate.

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They're in real estate partnerships with people to get.

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Appreciation and depreciation.

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They sell, they look for something else to not pay

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taxes until they're done and it goes higher and they

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do it.

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So if you want to have these.

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Billionaires that you talk about to pay more in taxes.

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Don't talk about unrealistic stupid things like untaxing unrealized gains.

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Talk about changing the tax laws. Change the tax laws.

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Whatever you think is fair. Change the tax laws. If

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you feel like I can't make an exchange and to

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go ahead and save on taxes and make that tax law.

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If you think it's not fair for step up games,

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make that tax law. But you know it is fair

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because you know people that create wealth. You would force

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into distress sales if people had to sell stuff to

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go ahead and pay the taxes, if they weren't stepped

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up basis. You've heard it all the time. Families that

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own farms for generations and generations, if they didn't get

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to stepped up basis, they would have to be selling

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the farms to pay the millions in taxes that would

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have to come do. If they didn't get that stepped

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up basis. The only way they would get that money

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as they inherited is to sell the farm, sell the buildings.

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And so now you have to stress prices. You don't

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want distress prices. You don't have to have somebody that

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inherits your home to sell your home because they have

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to pay the taxes on it. That would bring down

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the price of everything. Real estate will go down, probably crash.

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There's reasons they don't make the changes, but they don't

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tell you why they don't make the changes. They just

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tell you their fair share change some of them. One

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of the ones you can change so easily is that

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carry trade. Okay, Basically the bottom line is a lot

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of hedge fund billionaires, a lot.

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Get to take their.

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Money out of their investment as long term gains, which

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means they only pay twenty percent instead of paying W

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two wage on it. That's how they get their income

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because they've reinvest their money. They get paid a percentage

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of what's in there and what they're managing, and they

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take it out because they get they get paid in

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shares and now they take it out.

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And how it's long term gains that can be changed.

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That can be changed, and there's no reason not to

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change that because it's like an income for them. I

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don't have a problem with that. There's other things that

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can be changed. Percentages of things can be changed, things

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you can do fair share. But I always talk about

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you really want to have a tax system that's fair,

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then you make a tax system that has a flat tax.

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A flat tax.

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Means you make fifty grand and you pay ten percent,

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you're paying five grand. If you make a million dollars,

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you're paying one hundred grand. Now, obviously I would also

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compromise on some of those things and say, okay, people

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00:14:04.840 --> 00:14:08.639
less than fifty grand or okay, don't have to pay

250
00:14:08.679 --> 00:14:12.320
taxes between fifty and one hundred thousand. They have to

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pay five percent of a flat tax whatever it is

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moving around. But then there's a national sales tax. And

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so somebody that has to go ahead and you know,

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wants to buy a twenty five thousand dollars car, their

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00:14:26.480 --> 00:14:28.480
tax is going to be totally different than someone that

256
00:14:28.559 --> 00:14:31.759
buys a three hundred thousand dollar car, or a million

257
00:14:31.799 --> 00:14:35.919
dollar car, or a twenty million dollar yacht or boats.

258
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And we need all that.

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00:14:40.559 --> 00:14:45.799
Expensive stuff that people with money want, don't need, but

260
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want that people are jealous of but won't accept the

261
00:14:50.840 --> 00:14:54.200
fact that these other people have earned it. What they

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00:14:54.240 --> 00:14:56.320
do is they're going to have to pay more in taxes.

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The more you spend, the more you take. People with

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money are just not going to hold their money.

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They're just not.

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And you can have a basically a scenario where it's

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a flat tax, understanding that people with less money can

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00:15:17.559 --> 00:15:19.519
pay less of a flat tax, and then people with

269
00:15:19.639 --> 00:15:22.000
more money can pay a little bit more on flat tax.

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00:15:22.240 --> 00:15:25.840
But it's no rite offs, okay, so you just pay

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00:15:25.879 --> 00:15:29.279
it that way is simple. They always talk about simplifying

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00:15:29.320 --> 00:15:32.960
the tax code. They just haven't done it, and they

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00:15:33.000 --> 00:15:38.759
won't because the lobbyists for the attorneys.

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Are way too strong.

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We live in a whole lobbyist So if we get

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00:15:44.240 --> 00:15:49.279
taken down, it's going to be because of internal desire

277
00:15:50.879 --> 00:15:54.919
to get paid by all these outside people. You know,

278
00:15:55.360 --> 00:15:59.000
it's crazy, man, it really is. So what we have

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00:15:59.120 --> 00:16:02.519
this week, we had the PCE number, which is the

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00:16:02.519 --> 00:16:05.360
Federal Reserve's favorite number, showing about inflation. It was a

281
00:16:05.360 --> 00:16:10.360
little bit tame, uh tamer then expected, which is telling

282
00:16:10.440 --> 00:16:12.600
us that inflation is going in the right direction. And

283
00:16:12.639 --> 00:16:16.639
we have a pretty nice scenario supposedly. The job markets

284
00:16:16.639 --> 00:16:20.000
are growing, you know, at a good pace. Our earnings

285
00:16:20.039 --> 00:16:24.279
are okay with companies, and everything's going well until they're not.

286
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And that's what makes me scared because we've seen so

287
00:16:28.159 --> 00:16:31.559
many readjustments and numbers. Don't forget that eight hundred and

288
00:16:31.600 --> 00:16:36.480
eighty thousand jobs that they said created weren't created. Don't

289
00:16:36.480 --> 00:16:39.480
forget these other things that always happened. Look at what's

290
00:16:39.519 --> 00:16:44.080
really going on. Okay, and we always say this too,

291
00:16:44.840 --> 00:16:48.080
that at the end of the day, they keep saying

292
00:16:48.080 --> 00:16:52.480
inflation's coming down, but it only means it's only not

293
00:16:52.679 --> 00:16:56.799
going up as much as it was. It's only going

294
00:16:56.879 --> 00:17:00.440
up two and a half percent a year. So that

295
00:17:00.519 --> 00:17:04.960
means whatever you spent last year on one hundred dollars,

296
00:17:05.440 --> 00:17:08.279
that means this year it's one hundred and two fifty.

297
00:17:08.839 --> 00:17:11.920
And you couple that with the ten to fifteen percent

298
00:17:12.000 --> 00:17:14.640
inflation we've had over the last few years. Now you're

299
00:17:14.680 --> 00:17:16.799
that same one hundred dollars from four years ago is

300
00:17:16.799 --> 00:17:18.680
one hundred and twenty one hundred and twenty five dollars.

301
00:17:19.519 --> 00:17:21.119
I've told you this a couple of weeks ago.

302
00:17:22.039 --> 00:17:26.440
Someone that was making four hundred thousand dollars four years

303
00:17:26.480 --> 00:17:30.799
ago needs to make four hundred and eighty six thousand

304
00:17:30.880 --> 00:17:37.000
dollars that had the same spendable amount today. That's eighty

305
00:17:37.119 --> 00:17:45.799
six thousand dollars more to break even. That's a twenty

306
00:17:45.839 --> 00:17:46.799
percent increase.

307
00:17:48.440 --> 00:17:49.000
I don't know.

308
00:17:49.119 --> 00:17:53.279
I haven't seen people making twenty percent more in their salaries,

309
00:17:57.880 --> 00:18:01.079
and even if you did, it's breaking even not getting ahead.

310
00:18:01.319 --> 00:18:04.960
And that's not counting how much it costs more for

311
00:18:05.119 --> 00:18:10.799
milk and bread and groceries and gas, which are up

312
00:18:10.799 --> 00:18:16.680
more than twenty percent. This is the world we live

313
00:18:16.720 --> 00:18:20.839
in right now. But my biggest fear that's out there

314
00:18:20.920 --> 00:18:22.599
right now is.

315
00:18:22.559 --> 00:18:25.480
What we don't know. What we don't know.

316
00:18:27.319 --> 00:18:29.839
And I know the left loves the fact that they

317
00:18:29.960 --> 00:18:35.799
want calmness, they want they want people standing up there

318
00:18:35.839 --> 00:18:40.400
and lieing to them basically about everything that's going on

319
00:18:41.440 --> 00:18:47.440
so they can feel good about themselves. Well, I'm a

320
00:18:47.480 --> 00:18:52.160
realist and I look at what's going on around the

321
00:18:52.200 --> 00:18:58.799
world and it scares me. It scares me how much

322
00:18:58.880 --> 00:19:05.400
people really don't out like America, from China to Iran,

323
00:19:05.519 --> 00:19:07.440
to North Korea.

324
00:19:08.799 --> 00:19:13.640
To Russia. Those are just the main bad actors.

325
00:19:14.160 --> 00:19:17.880
Think about all the people in the Middle East, but

326
00:19:18.000 --> 00:19:20.039
yet we continually leave them in.

327
00:19:20.559 --> 00:19:25.240
Our borders, you know, in the hole. It doesn't seem

328
00:19:25.319 --> 00:19:25.680
like a lot.

329
00:19:25.720 --> 00:19:28.359
When they said the other day that the letter from

330
00:19:28.400 --> 00:19:37.160
the Ice Department stated that thirteen thousand plus illegal imminent

331
00:19:37.519 --> 00:19:44.079
illegal immigrants with criminal violations have entered on our staying

332
00:19:44.759 --> 00:19:50.039
in our country. If you had violent criminal acts in

333
00:19:50.079 --> 00:19:54.640
the past, there's a good chance when your back is

334
00:19:54.720 --> 00:19:57.559
up against the wall, you'll have violent criminal acts again,

335
00:19:59.119 --> 00:20:01.480
you know, And somebody goes thirteen thousand doesn't seem like

336
00:20:01.519 --> 00:20:07.799
a lot. You know what, We only have fifty states,

337
00:20:09.680 --> 00:20:10.640
So think about that.

338
00:20:12.000 --> 00:20:13.400
How many go in each state? Right?

339
00:20:15.200 --> 00:20:19.240
Then take away the states that are outlying that nobody goes,

340
00:20:19.839 --> 00:20:23.839
and then they congregate, and they congregate in the big cities, which.

341
00:20:23.680 --> 00:20:24.759
Maybe we have ten of them.

342
00:20:27.640 --> 00:20:30.799
So you've got I don't know, eleven twelve hundred people

343
00:20:31.400 --> 00:20:36.759
with violent criminal records. Those are the ones we know about.

344
00:20:36.759 --> 00:20:38.839
How about the ones we don't know about? How are

345
00:20:38.839 --> 00:20:41.160
we going to make us sell safe? How are we

346
00:20:41.240 --> 00:20:45.279
going to make us sell safe? On the outside, then

347
00:20:45.279 --> 00:20:48.680
we're hearing that Iran is coming after Trump. They don't

348
00:20:48.680 --> 00:20:54.240
want Trump in. They've been trying to assassinate them, they're

349
00:20:54.279 --> 00:20:56.039
trying to hack in, they try to do everything that

350
00:20:56.160 --> 00:21:03.200
can interfere in the elections. Well, at least this time

351
00:21:03.279 --> 00:21:06.599
they're not lying about it. At least this time they're

352
00:21:06.599 --> 00:21:14.200
not saying it's a Russian collusion. Okay, we have a problem.

353
00:21:14.680 --> 00:21:17.319
And if we're supposed to have the best technology and

354
00:21:17.359 --> 00:21:20.839
the best AI and the best everything. How are they

355
00:21:20.880 --> 00:21:24.960
getting through everything that maybe others? You mean, you're sitting

356
00:21:24.960 --> 00:21:29.480
in Iran and your technology allows you to get into

357
00:21:29.680 --> 00:21:33.440
our government systems and our corporations.

358
00:21:34.480 --> 00:21:40.559
That's scary. That's scary. So when does this all lead us?

359
00:21:42.079 --> 00:21:44.359
We have a war in Ukraine which we didn't have

360
00:21:44.440 --> 00:21:46.839
four years ago, we have a war in the Middle

361
00:21:46.839 --> 00:21:51.400
East that we didn't have four years ago, and the

362
00:21:51.440 --> 00:21:59.000
next one will be China invading Taiwan. Those odds got

363
00:21:59.000 --> 00:22:02.079
to be over seventy five percent that they're gonna sable

364
00:22:02.200 --> 00:22:06.200
rattle those cages and see what happens. And if Harris

365
00:22:06.319 --> 00:22:11.279
is in no different than Biden because she's a puppeteer. Also,

366
00:22:11.359 --> 00:22:14.359
there's somebody behind her pulling all us strings. Otherwise she

367
00:22:14.359 --> 00:22:16.559
should never be in the position she is right now.

368
00:22:19.119 --> 00:22:26.480
Obviously will not be strong enough to stop them. And

369
00:22:26.559 --> 00:22:30.960
all they're gonna do is they're diplomatic bs talk like

370
00:22:31.000 --> 00:22:34.680
they did with Putin and everything else. But then he

371
00:22:34.759 --> 00:22:37.400
starts sitting backing. Await a second, are we part of

372
00:22:37.440 --> 00:22:41.079
these wars on the other side? Is this what we

373
00:22:41.240 --> 00:22:43.759
want in the world? Are all the governments coming together

374
00:22:44.400 --> 00:22:47.880
and just kind of having this stuff going on, because

375
00:22:48.200 --> 00:22:50.039
it's very hard for me to believe that if we

376
00:22:50.079 --> 00:22:52.640
wanted to end the war in Russia that we couldn't

377
00:22:52.680 --> 00:22:56.440
have done it already by cutting their supply off. Somehow

378
00:22:56.839 --> 00:23:01.519
we give him sanctioned, but they're still selling oil, and

379
00:23:01.599 --> 00:23:04.720
we're buying oil not from them but from indirectly from them,

380
00:23:06.720 --> 00:23:09.000
and they're able to sell all the oil to China.

381
00:23:10.599 --> 00:23:13.720
Let all these bad guys become comfortable as China goes

382
00:23:13.720 --> 00:23:17.200
through Africa with all the minerals. Hey, we've already seen

383
00:23:17.240 --> 00:23:21.240
it once with the pandemic and our health care service,

384
00:23:21.640 --> 00:23:25.319
our needs. Why do we want to have China have everything?

385
00:23:25.359 --> 00:23:28.200
We talk about we'll bringing the chips back here, but

386
00:23:28.279 --> 00:23:33.160
we never brought our essential our healthcare essentials manufactured back here.

387
00:23:33.960 --> 00:23:39.680
We need that in America, we don't need it in China.

388
00:23:39.880 --> 00:23:42.799
People will pay more if they know the stuff we

389
00:23:42.880 --> 00:23:45.720
have is safe. It's time for us to start looking

390
00:23:47.240 --> 00:23:53.480
from within and get strong within, because I'm very nervous.

391
00:23:53.559 --> 00:23:58.160
Just like the World Trade Center crumbled from within, crumbled

392
00:23:58.160 --> 00:24:02.519
from within, right, that's what they're doing by bringing all

393
00:24:02.559 --> 00:24:04.680
these people into the United States. They're going to try

394
00:24:04.680 --> 00:24:08.680
to crumble us from inside, from within, make us scared

395
00:24:08.680 --> 00:24:12.640
to do anything bring down our economy and that is

396
00:24:12.720 --> 00:24:16.400
not what I want to be part of. So becauseus

397
00:24:16.440 --> 00:24:19.880
in the markets, because of what's going on, make sure

398
00:24:19.920 --> 00:24:23.000
you vote and I'll be back right after this message.

399
00:24:23.039 --> 00:24:25.759
Appreciate you all listening to The Money Matter Show with

400
00:24:25.839 --> 00:24:32.400
Dean Greenberg. Welcome back everybody. This is the Money Matter Show.

401
00:24:32.440 --> 00:24:36.079
We appreciate your listening. We got Dave and Dylan and

402
00:24:36.160 --> 00:24:39.799
Sebastian and Todd all here today to bring you what

403
00:24:39.839 --> 00:24:42.799
we think is going on in the markets. Remember this

404
00:24:42.839 --> 00:24:45.119
show is brought to you by Greenberg Financial Group, which

405
00:24:45.119 --> 00:24:47.680
is both a registered investment advisory and they broke a dealer.

406
00:24:48.119 --> 00:24:50.799
On the show, we talk about different products and different strategies.

407
00:24:50.839 --> 00:24:53.680
We all have different ideas, we have different things that

408
00:24:53.720 --> 00:24:54.839
we think are going to happen.

409
00:24:55.559 --> 00:24:56.680
Everything has risk.

410
00:24:56.920 --> 00:25:01.240
Please understand your risk tolerance, the risk of the investment

411
00:25:01.480 --> 00:25:03.480
and everything else. And if you don't just ask, you

412
00:25:03.599 --> 00:25:05.599
have to ask whether it's also somebody else who are

413
00:25:05.599 --> 00:25:06.160
you dealing with?

414
00:25:06.599 --> 00:25:11.400
Ask absolutely. I looked during the week what the big

415
00:25:11.440 --> 00:25:13.559
headline for the week is, and I think the big

416
00:25:13.559 --> 00:25:18.680
headline last week is Todd Glick Junior is officially invited

417
00:25:18.880 --> 00:25:19.839
to the Boston Marathon.

418
00:25:20.160 --> 00:25:21.319
Thank yeah, thank you.

419
00:25:21.680 --> 00:25:23.960
That's pretty big, pretty big news here in the office.

420
00:25:24.240 --> 00:25:26.599
It officially happened, and going to Boston.

421
00:25:26.880 --> 00:25:29.799
I know you've worked hard at that. It's congratulations, Thank you.

422
00:25:29.839 --> 00:25:30.519
I appreciate it.

423
00:25:30.559 --> 00:25:36.079
I was in the gym Deane on Thursday, and I've

424
00:25:36.119 --> 00:25:39.119
said before that the CNN is in front of the treadmill.

425
00:25:39.160 --> 00:25:41.839
There isn't much I can do about it. I typically

426
00:25:41.839 --> 00:25:43.680
will have Fox on my phone, but their app is

427
00:25:43.720 --> 00:25:47.880
so bad that it often doesn't work. And I noticed

428
00:25:48.039 --> 00:25:53.079
that they were actually covering Hurricane Helen on Thursday, which

429
00:25:53.119 --> 00:25:55.599
and I thought to myself, that's got to be really

430
00:25:56.240 --> 00:25:58.960
make them angry that it's disrupting their twenty four to

431
00:25:59.000 --> 00:26:02.799
seven infomercial they've been running for Kamala. You know everything

432
00:26:02.960 --> 00:26:05.640
it's all about Kamala and all about Donald and bad

433
00:26:05.720 --> 00:26:09.119
Donald good Kamala on seeing a NonStop and I thought,

434
00:26:09.599 --> 00:26:11.960
could you be a little bit more obvious? Third thing,

435
00:26:12.119 --> 00:26:14.799
third big headline for the week is the heat. I

436
00:26:14.920 --> 00:26:18.799
haven't seen temperatures like this in thirty years, So be

437
00:26:18.839 --> 00:26:20.359
glad for that to end.

438
00:26:20.839 --> 00:26:23.400
Yeah, looking forward to it, but you know, it's it's

439
00:26:23.599 --> 00:26:24.160
it's a desert.

440
00:26:24.200 --> 00:26:26.160
At the end of the day, we know it is

441
00:26:26.200 --> 00:26:28.400
a desert, and everything in the desert. I always tell people,

442
00:26:28.480 --> 00:26:29.880
everything in the desert is trying.

443
00:26:29.680 --> 00:26:30.079
To kill you.

444
00:26:31.240 --> 00:26:34.799
Yeah, the heat. For at least we're not here the animals.

445
00:26:34.839 --> 00:26:37.400
At least we're not hearing the climate change people around

446
00:26:37.400 --> 00:26:39.319
this one because all the lakes are filled, so they

447
00:26:39.319 --> 00:26:41.079
don't have too much data to support.

448
00:26:40.759 --> 00:26:44.079
The climate change about anything. Even in the political scene,

449
00:26:44.119 --> 00:26:46.039
they're not talking about it that much. You only hear

450
00:26:46.039 --> 00:26:48.079
about climate change when they want to put stuff in

451
00:26:48.119 --> 00:26:48.440
a bill.

452
00:26:49.400 --> 00:26:52.160
Well, the Hurricane Helen thing. If you've watched any of

453
00:26:52.160 --> 00:26:56.480
that coverage that's all about climate change. They're never star

454
00:26:56.680 --> 00:26:59.000
are never this big, they were never this intens That's

455
00:26:59.039 --> 00:27:00.319
not true. That's not true.

456
00:27:00.519 --> 00:27:02.200
Okay, we all know it's not true. And I haven't

457
00:27:02.240 --> 00:27:04.160
not heard that it was about climate change. I just

458
00:27:04.200 --> 00:27:06.480
heard it's a big hurricane. Be careful, good, it's deadly,

459
00:27:06.880 --> 00:27:09.160
which is what we hear every year. And because the

460
00:27:09.160 --> 00:27:11.599
ocean hurricanes are coming through right, because.

461
00:27:11.359 --> 00:27:13.680
The ocean water has been warmer than normal, we knew

462
00:27:13.720 --> 00:27:16.039
this was coming. Really, we're more than halfway through the

463
00:27:16.160 --> 00:27:18.680
hurricane season. This is the first one. Yeah, brilliant news

464
00:27:18.759 --> 00:27:21.759
was coming. I don't know a lot of economic news

465
00:27:21.759 --> 00:27:25.880
this week though. Really the highlight of the week was

466
00:27:25.880 --> 00:27:30.279
the PCEE, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, which we've been

467
00:27:30.640 --> 00:27:33.759
told and believed that that's the Fed's number one gage

468
00:27:33.799 --> 00:27:35.920
of inflation. That was up just one tenth of one

469
00:27:35.960 --> 00:27:39.039
percent in August two point two percent year over year,

470
00:27:39.079 --> 00:27:43.599
which is the lowest since early twenty twenty one. Good news,

471
00:27:44.279 --> 00:27:48.039
consumer confidence did have the biggest one month declined since

472
00:27:48.160 --> 00:27:52.640
August of twenty one. The market shrugged and didn't care

473
00:27:52.880 --> 00:27:55.119
because that's not a market movie number. As I have

474
00:27:55.240 --> 00:27:56.559
said before, within.

475
00:27:56.400 --> 00:27:59.799
The week before it was that was up as positive. So, yeah,

476
00:27:59.839 --> 00:28:01.200
that number goes all over the place.

477
00:28:01.519 --> 00:28:04.799
It's a volatile number, and it's kind of depends upon emotions,

478
00:28:04.799 --> 00:28:07.519
and probably the election is probably involved in that as well,

479
00:28:07.960 --> 00:28:10.279
but it generally isn't a market mover. And here you

480
00:28:10.319 --> 00:28:13.079
get the biggest one month declined in four years or

481
00:28:13.079 --> 00:28:17.319
three years, and the market didn't care at all. A

482
00:28:17.400 --> 00:28:21.519
series of economic reports that support a solid economy, calling

483
00:28:21.599 --> 00:28:24.720
fears that we were concerned that the Federal Reserve's fifty

484
00:28:24.759 --> 00:28:28.559
basis point cut, which was pretty down aggressive was because

485
00:28:28.599 --> 00:28:31.640
of the economy slowly, but weekly jobless claims fell more

486
00:28:31.680 --> 00:28:36.599
than expected, durable goods orders for August were unchanged, and

487
00:28:36.839 --> 00:28:40.160
the final reading of second quarter GDP was revised upward.

488
00:28:41.160 --> 00:28:44.359
All of those things point to a pretty good economy.

489
00:28:45.079 --> 00:28:48.079
They've got a good economy on low inflation and declining

490
00:28:48.160 --> 00:28:51.200
interest rates, and that's probably why you're seeing the market

491
00:28:51.440 --> 00:28:53.319
hit multiple new all time eyes.

492
00:28:53.359 --> 00:28:55.480
Last week even saw rates take a little bit of

493
00:28:55.519 --> 00:28:58.799
an increase throughout the week until Friday finally saw some decrease,

494
00:28:58.839 --> 00:29:01.359
but almost every single day this week rates were just

495
00:29:01.599 --> 00:29:02.279
slowly je.

496
00:29:02.160 --> 00:29:04.480
Ever since they announced the fifty basis point cut, rates

497
00:29:04.480 --> 00:29:07.480
have been moving up. Yes, and of course that we

498
00:29:07.559 --> 00:29:11.440
know why. They were obviously expecting a cut, perhaps even

499
00:29:11.480 --> 00:29:12.160
bigger than that.

500
00:29:12.359 --> 00:29:15.640
That's how investors work. They price in. They they're investing

501
00:29:15.680 --> 00:29:18.519
for the future. They're not saying, what's today's market, and

502
00:29:18.559 --> 00:29:21.160
that's how I'm investing. You're investing six months out, and

503
00:29:21.200 --> 00:29:23.799
so that's yeah, it was already priced in obviously, and

504
00:29:23.799 --> 00:29:26.240
that's why we're ticking up because it's some of these

505
00:29:26.319 --> 00:29:28.200
numbers are so good that they didn't expect them to

506
00:29:28.200 --> 00:29:28.720
be this good.

507
00:29:28.920 --> 00:29:33.799
Yeah, we've got a potential disruption coming next week. Thousands

508
00:29:33.799 --> 00:29:38.319
of doc work workers are contemplating going on strike and

509
00:29:38.359 --> 00:29:41.279
that could really tie up the supply chain again both

510
00:29:41.319 --> 00:29:42.480
East and west coast.

511
00:29:42.279 --> 00:29:45.000
Of what workers. I'm sorry, doctcha.

512
00:29:44.400 --> 00:29:45.559
Think about this? Okay?

513
00:29:46.200 --> 00:29:48.559
When you have an administration that touts themselves at the

514
00:29:48.559 --> 00:29:54.039
most union friendly, right, why wouldn't you go on strike

515
00:29:55.160 --> 00:29:58.839
because you know they're going to side with you, whether

516
00:29:58.880 --> 00:30:03.400
it's trying to get money to you your strikers or whatever.

517
00:30:03.759 --> 00:30:08.119
And also shame the corporation's management when they had nothing

518
00:30:08.119 --> 00:30:11.559
to do with it, right what they I always remember

519
00:30:11.599 --> 00:30:13.519
my dad worked for the phone company, and when they

520
00:30:13.519 --> 00:30:16.000
would go on strike, you'd always say, you know what,

521
00:30:16.640 --> 00:30:19.039
they never asked me I wanted to be on strike.

522
00:30:19.240 --> 00:30:20.839
They never asked me if I wanted to be out

523
00:30:20.839 --> 00:30:23.680
three four, five, six weeks without a paycheck. They never

524
00:30:23.720 --> 00:30:27.279
asked me. And I'm telling them, he said, most people

525
00:30:27.319 --> 00:30:29.920
don't want to be out. Let them negotiate, but we

526
00:30:29.960 --> 00:30:33.000
want to get we want to get paychecks.

527
00:30:33.200 --> 00:30:35.039
You know. And it's unbelievable.

528
00:30:35.599 --> 00:30:38.319
And they feel that they got the power right now

529
00:30:38.319 --> 00:30:41.599
to do it because the best was and you remember

530
00:30:41.599 --> 00:30:47.279
this one with Ronald Reagan, the air traffic controllers, you

531
00:30:47.799 --> 00:30:51.440
obviously weren't born at that time, all said we're going

532
00:30:51.480 --> 00:30:56.079
on strike, and he goes, Okay, who wants a job

533
00:30:56.200 --> 00:30:57.759
is an air traffic controller?

534
00:30:58.640 --> 00:30:58.759
Right?

535
00:30:59.039 --> 00:31:02.079
And then obviously Matt took over because management's the less

536
00:31:02.119 --> 00:31:04.720
of work to keep everything going, and they started these

537
00:31:04.799 --> 00:31:08.119
massive training programs and they have all new way traffic

538
00:31:08.200 --> 00:31:10.839
controllers who wanted to work, and.

539
00:31:10.920 --> 00:31:12.759
The ones that went out on strike were out on

540
00:31:12.799 --> 00:31:15.759
strike permanently. It was kind of it was kind of

541
00:31:15.759 --> 00:31:18.960
a cool time in our in our history, but that

542
00:31:18.960 --> 00:31:21.160
that could be disruptive. We've got I think it's forty

543
00:31:21.160 --> 00:31:25.079
five thousand dock workers, uh, primarily East Coast and Gulf Coast.

544
00:31:25.079 --> 00:31:26.960
I didn't hear anything about the West Coast. I don't

545
00:31:26.960 --> 00:31:29.680
know if that's not involving the West Coast or not.

546
00:31:29.839 --> 00:31:31.240
If it's a different union.

547
00:31:31.759 --> 00:31:34.359
Of sure, it's probably a different union. And then then

548
00:31:34.400 --> 00:31:36.920
prices will go up, and to blame everything on the strike,

549
00:31:38.160 --> 00:31:40.960
and and then everything on the price on the corporate gouging.

550
00:31:41.000 --> 00:31:41.279
Again.

551
00:31:41.480 --> 00:31:43.759
But somebody made a good point the other day. You know,

552
00:31:43.839 --> 00:31:46.359
all she talks about is we'll come after these comment

553
00:31:46.559 --> 00:31:50.359
that are price couching. Who is price gouching? Yeah, Okay,

554
00:31:50.599 --> 00:31:53.000
they don't. She never says this is a price couching.

555
00:31:53.240 --> 00:31:57.640
It's easy to say words, it's hard to really implement.

556
00:31:57.920 --> 00:32:00.200
What are you going to do if you are all

557
00:32:00.319 --> 00:32:03.319
materials have gone up, if your shipping courts have gone up,

558
00:32:03.440 --> 00:32:06.720
if your transportation courts have gone up, if your ally

559
00:32:06.920 --> 00:32:10.960
salaries have gone up, if your equipment that you need

560
00:32:11.000 --> 00:32:13.680
to buy has gone up. Everything has gone up. You

561
00:32:13.799 --> 00:32:16.039
charge more and you try to keep a margin.

562
00:32:16.759 --> 00:32:18.359
I don't know if this is if they have heard

563
00:32:18.400 --> 00:32:21.400
about this or not, but there's a there's there's definitely

564
00:32:21.400 --> 00:32:24.920
some inflation inflation at work here. There's definitely some inflation

565
00:32:24.960 --> 00:32:26.160
at work over the last few years.

566
00:32:26.200 --> 00:32:27.799
That it's called supply.

567
00:32:28.960 --> 00:32:32.279
They supply demand. You got too much supply. The demand

568
00:32:32.480 --> 00:32:35.599
isn't there. The price has come down. When the demand

569
00:32:35.720 --> 00:32:38.279
is there and you don't have the supply, what happens.

570
00:32:38.559 --> 00:32:40.680
The people with the money get what they want because

571
00:32:40.680 --> 00:32:41.359
they pay more.

572
00:32:41.599 --> 00:32:42.319
Yeah, you know.

573
00:32:42.640 --> 00:32:44.880
So they talk about this great game for the middle

574
00:32:44.880 --> 00:32:48.599
class and and and lower and they never do anything

575
00:32:48.599 --> 00:32:51.240
to help them. You want to help them, have supply.

576
00:32:51.880 --> 00:32:54.279
Don't let people go and strike all the time. Stop

577
00:32:54.319 --> 00:32:57.079
talking about how bad the corporations are so people will

578
00:32:57.119 --> 00:32:58.799
actually go to work and appreciate it.

579
00:32:59.160 --> 00:33:01.519
About marching some of the richest people in the country

580
00:33:01.519 --> 00:33:05.720
to talk about getting the rich, you know, like Oprah Winfrey.

581
00:33:05.799 --> 00:33:08.720
Really, oh yeah, you know that was a shoke.

582
00:33:09.240 --> 00:33:10.759
How about you tell me how fair share?

583
00:33:10.759 --> 00:33:12.079
How much you paying Oprah?

584
00:33:12.200 --> 00:33:12.480
Yeah?

585
00:33:12.559 --> 00:33:15.279
Okay, Oprah. I like to know how much you're paying Oprah.

586
00:33:15.359 --> 00:33:18.200
And because I guarantee you she has real estate, I

587
00:33:18.279 --> 00:33:20.920
guarantee is she how money's in private equity?

588
00:33:21.200 --> 00:33:22.400
I mean she's billionaires.

589
00:33:22.400 --> 00:33:26.160
Oh yeah, she's got money all over the place, saving

590
00:33:26.359 --> 00:33:27.519
on taxes.

591
00:33:28.240 --> 00:33:31.279
Sure, sure, taking advantage of the tax laws. Like you said, Dean,

592
00:33:31.319 --> 00:33:32.599
you want to change change.

593
00:33:32.559 --> 00:33:35.960
How people do She pays people to take advantage of

594
00:33:36.000 --> 00:33:38.920
the tax law investment where I could save money. Okay,

595
00:33:39.119 --> 00:33:41.440
they don't even know what money is. And telling the

596
00:33:41.480 --> 00:33:42.920
people they have fairt share.

597
00:33:43.039 --> 00:33:44.920
Come on, you make the rich pay their fair share

598
00:33:44.920 --> 00:33:47.200
when you've got fifty percent of the country pays zero.

599
00:33:47.839 --> 00:33:48.119
Yeah.

600
00:33:48.160 --> 00:33:50.519
And also, the rich don't really feel inflation the same

601
00:33:50.559 --> 00:33:52.880
way that we all do because the rich have assets,

602
00:33:53.279 --> 00:33:56.759
and what happens to assets in an inflationary environment? They

603
00:33:56.759 --> 00:33:59.359
go up, So rich get richer. The people who are

604
00:33:59.359 --> 00:34:01.359
trying to get the app sets the middle income person

605
00:34:01.359 --> 00:34:04.400
that's trying to get the first home or their first car.

606
00:34:04.440 --> 00:34:07.160
I mean, any asset went up like crazy during the

607
00:34:07.279 --> 00:34:10.719
last four years because of the hidden tax, which is inflation,

608
00:34:11.280 --> 00:34:13.639
and that was done because of mass money printing.

609
00:34:14.239 --> 00:34:17.079
If you give people twenty five thousand dollars to put

610
00:34:17.119 --> 00:34:20.760
on the down payment, that means more people will try

611
00:34:20.800 --> 00:34:22.960
to buy a house. If more people trying to buy

612
00:34:22.960 --> 00:34:25.880
a house is scarcity of supply because the demand will

613
00:34:25.880 --> 00:34:28.679
go up and everybody will raise their prices so they

614
00:34:28.719 --> 00:34:30.719
know they're getting that twenty five thousand dollars.

615
00:34:30.960 --> 00:34:31.719
It's a joke.

616
00:34:32.079 --> 00:34:36.559
It doesn't work, and they keep spoon feeding the ignorant.

617
00:34:37.159 --> 00:34:38.159
I couldn't agree with it.

618
00:34:38.280 --> 00:34:40.679
Well, they can do that because our country doesn't teach economics.

619
00:34:40.760 --> 00:34:42.119
I mean, if you think about it, this probably is

620
00:34:42.119 --> 00:34:44.519
the playbooks they've been working for the last thirty years.

621
00:34:44.519 --> 00:34:48.360
Because you don't you're not taught the things you're supposed

622
00:34:48.400 --> 00:34:48.599
to know.

623
00:34:49.320 --> 00:34:50.679
They don't talk about anything.

624
00:34:50.880 --> 00:34:54.760
It's like that bring out billionaires like Opah Winfrey to

625
00:34:54.840 --> 00:34:57.760
sell love and peace and calmness.

626
00:34:58.119 --> 00:34:58.920
You know what I'm saying.

627
00:34:59.199 --> 00:35:01.880
Meanwhile, of anything, what happens Oprah's on her private jet

628
00:35:02.199 --> 00:35:05.199
to some island with her friends, that nobody has to

629
00:35:05.199 --> 00:35:05.760
worry about.

630
00:35:06.239 --> 00:35:08.400
And even that policy that you're talking about, that twenty

631
00:35:08.440 --> 00:35:10.480
five thousand dollars are trying to give people, if you

632
00:35:10.559 --> 00:35:13.440
look into that policy, you could you'd find that only

633
00:35:13.440 --> 00:35:16.320
about what was a todd fourteen hundred people qualify for

634
00:35:16.400 --> 00:35:18.480
that right. So they're gonna throw the bone out there

635
00:35:18.519 --> 00:35:20.719
for the left to say, Yeah, I want twenty five

636
00:35:20.719 --> 00:35:22.760
thousand dollars for my first time home buy and then

637
00:35:22.800 --> 00:35:24.320
figure out I don't qualify for that.

638
00:35:24.320 --> 00:35:27.400
How about bringing down rates, how about bringing down prices?

639
00:35:27.639 --> 00:35:31.440
How about increasing supply and guess what, you'll all of

640
00:35:31.480 --> 00:35:34.840
a sudden, you'll have more homes at cheaper prices. How

641
00:35:34.840 --> 00:35:37.280
about allowing more building when get rid of the red

642
00:35:37.320 --> 00:35:39.519
tape like Trump did with all when it with the

643
00:35:39.559 --> 00:35:41.679
regulations and being able to get through You know how

644
00:35:41.800 --> 00:35:43.920
much red tape it takes to build a house now,

645
00:35:44.440 --> 00:35:46.800
it's unbelievable. You know Todd's you go through it all

646
00:35:46.800 --> 00:35:49.920
the time. It's just not right. That's how you build

647
00:35:49.960 --> 00:35:53.079
an economy for the middle class. That's how you do it.

648
00:35:53.119 --> 00:35:55.119
You have jobs, for them.

649
00:35:55.320 --> 00:35:58.039
Welcome back everybody to the Moneybouty Show. We have everyone

650
00:35:58.039 --> 00:36:02.239
here today. Let's start talking more about the markets.

651
00:36:02.559 --> 00:36:04.280
Yeah, I mean, would you see today with the Dow

652
00:36:04.440 --> 00:36:07.159
really leading the way I mean, it was up one

653
00:36:07.199 --> 00:36:09.079
percent at one point when the rest of the indexes

654
00:36:09.079 --> 00:36:09.800
were kind of flat.

655
00:36:10.159 --> 00:36:12.199
They were just catching up for the week, just catching up,

656
00:36:12.239 --> 00:36:13.679
is that what it was? It was. It finished the

657
00:36:13.679 --> 00:36:15.159
week same as the s we saw.

658
00:36:15.199 --> 00:36:16.559
That's what I'm saying. It finished the same week. But

659
00:36:16.599 --> 00:36:18.679
on Friday it really was kind of like ecal weight.

660
00:36:18.760 --> 00:36:20.400
It was up a little more than everything else.

661
00:36:20.840 --> 00:36:22.920
It just seems the money is flowing from one sector

662
00:36:22.960 --> 00:36:25.199
to the other. You know, they ran the semies up

663
00:36:25.239 --> 00:36:28.199
a little bit. Now, the semis got knocked a little

664
00:36:28.239 --> 00:36:30.400
bit while the dot went up the end of the day.

665
00:36:30.519 --> 00:36:36.760
To me, there's red flags. Just forget everything else, No

666
00:36:36.840 --> 00:36:39.440
red flags. We're going in October. I've been in the

667
00:36:39.480 --> 00:36:42.320
business almost forty years, Dave, what's the biggest month that

668
00:36:42.320 --> 00:36:44.039
we see? The drop doesn't mean that ends that way,

669
00:36:44.039 --> 00:36:44.960
but what's the biggest drop?

670
00:36:44.960 --> 00:36:47.000
Now? It's a home of three of the biggest crashes

671
00:36:47.039 --> 00:36:51.199
in history. October October, Yeah, September is historically the worst

672
00:36:51.199 --> 00:36:53.880
month of the year, we're up one point six percent. Yeah, yeah,

673
00:36:54.239 --> 00:36:54.440
you know.

674
00:36:54.559 --> 00:36:59.000
Yeah, when you go through this enough times and you

675
00:36:59.039 --> 00:37:02.559
were at new highs, you say, hey, don't make me

676
00:37:02.599 --> 00:37:04.920
a fool. I'm gonna be cautious. We have a very

677
00:37:04.960 --> 00:37:08.000
contentious election coming up. Yeah, we got a lot of things.

678
00:37:08.519 --> 00:37:11.199
So as you're usually sixty percent invested and you brought

679
00:37:11.199 --> 00:37:14.760
it down the forty by mitigating risk, It's okay, you

680
00:37:14.880 --> 00:37:16.679
still can make money, but guess what you got twenty

681
00:37:16.719 --> 00:37:19.840
percent sitting there saying I We'll go ahead and be

682
00:37:19.880 --> 00:37:22.679
able to invest that it comes down. If you have

683
00:37:22.760 --> 00:37:25.519
seventy percent and you go down to fifty five percent

684
00:37:25.880 --> 00:37:31.599
or fifty it's fine. Do not sell everything, because we

685
00:37:31.639 --> 00:37:34.719
could have the complete opposite. Everything could be perfect, gonna

686
00:37:34.719 --> 00:37:37.039
have a melt up. Then you'd be sitting there, Oh,

687
00:37:37.519 --> 00:37:39.440
it's better to say I could have made more money

688
00:37:40.440 --> 00:37:42.840
than to make no money at all, and it could

689
00:37:42.880 --> 00:37:45.360
be saying oh, I could have made money on the.

690
00:37:45.320 --> 00:37:48.000
Downside and just be losing less.

691
00:37:48.000 --> 00:37:51.760
And having money to invest. Risk reward. It's all about

692
00:37:51.880 --> 00:37:56.480
risk reward, and the red flags are there. I've been

693
00:37:56.480 --> 00:37:59.719
doing this a long time. I'm hoping we don't have

694
00:37:59.719 --> 00:38:03.519
any big moves down, but I will mitigate ris through

695
00:38:03.519 --> 00:38:06.000
the month of October until we know through the election,

696
00:38:06.079 --> 00:38:06.760
I should.

697
00:38:06.440 --> 00:38:08.760
Say, yeah, I think I'll pull back five to ten percent.

698
00:38:08.800 --> 00:38:10.840
Pall back actually would be a healthy thing right here.

699
00:38:10.719 --> 00:38:12.800
Right, And then then you get in because then I

700
00:38:12.840 --> 00:38:14.679
believe the markets will rally through the end of the

701
00:38:14.760 --> 00:38:15.519
year to next year.

702
00:38:15.719 --> 00:38:17.840
You get and then you make a nice, nice big

703
00:38:17.880 --> 00:38:19.159
return and move on.

704
00:38:19.400 --> 00:38:21.519
Yeah. The average return over the last fifty years on

705
00:38:21.559 --> 00:38:23.840
the S and P twelve percent, and we're up twenty

706
00:38:23.960 --> 00:38:26.320
point three as of Friday.

707
00:38:26.639 --> 00:38:29.719
Well, how's that even out with your RSAP? Text stocks

708
00:38:29.800 --> 00:38:32.079
go down and everything stays the same?

709
00:38:32.199 --> 00:38:35.559
Yeah, you know, and tex stocks led the way this week.

710
00:38:35.880 --> 00:38:38.760
I got to reignite it a little bit on the

711
00:38:38.880 --> 00:38:41.719
back of some positive comments. Yeah, a couple of decent

712
00:38:41.800 --> 00:38:42.599
earnings reports.

713
00:38:42.679 --> 00:38:44.320
I mean, I thought for a while fifty eight hundred

714
00:38:44.440 --> 00:38:46.239
was the level on the SP We didn't quite get there.

715
00:38:46.280 --> 00:38:48.400
Fifty seven to sixty seven was the new high this week.

716
00:38:48.440 --> 00:38:52.119
But again, at this point, yeah, you're you're going into October.

717
00:38:52.360 --> 00:38:56.760
You got through September abnormally, and at this point there's

718
00:38:56.800 --> 00:38:58.639
not much to risk it for the biscus.

719
00:38:58.679 --> 00:39:00.800
So look how you felt the first week in September.

720
00:39:01.199 --> 00:39:04.519
That wasn't a great feeling. Horrible, horrible. It goes down

721
00:39:04.559 --> 00:39:05.559
faster and it goes up.

722
00:39:06.280 --> 00:39:08.360
Yeah. Oh, they always say we'll go up the stairs

723
00:39:08.360 --> 00:39:09.360
and down the escalator.

724
00:39:10.079 --> 00:39:13.719
Yeah. Again, there's some liquidity markers that are saying that

725
00:39:13.760 --> 00:39:16.039
there's not as much liquidy going on even though there

726
00:39:16.039 --> 00:39:17.519
are lowering rates. It takes a while for that to

727
00:39:18.119 --> 00:39:20.800
be felt into the comomy. But who did inject a

728
00:39:20.840 --> 00:39:24.440
lot of money into their system? China? Oh my goodness,

729
00:39:24.719 --> 00:39:27.079
they injected a whole bunch of money. And you saw

730
00:39:27.119 --> 00:39:29.840
that stock market into I think that even the index

731
00:39:29.920 --> 00:39:31.840
was up ten percent for the week, which is pretty

732
00:39:31.840 --> 00:39:35.480
crazy for an index to be up ten percent. But yeah,

733
00:39:35.519 --> 00:39:37.880
that that Shanghai composite was going crazy.

734
00:39:38.000 --> 00:39:42.519
Biggest stimulus package since the pandemic, makes sense. They needed

735
00:39:42.480 --> 00:39:44.119
to spend it. They're in they're in a they're in

736
00:39:44.119 --> 00:39:46.360
a real funk. Yeah, And that we had.

737
00:39:46.320 --> 00:39:47.559
Do you get out of funks?

738
00:39:47.840 --> 00:39:50.800
Yeah? Money and printing money?

739
00:39:51.199 --> 00:39:54.119
W A R. What's that? Every time?

740
00:39:54.159 --> 00:39:59.239
All economy has been bad. Every time, somehow, some way

741
00:39:59.280 --> 00:40:01.239
we ended up going into some type of war.

742
00:40:01.480 --> 00:40:04.440
Oh boar gotcha. I thought it was an acronym for

743
00:40:04.480 --> 00:40:08.239
something else. Yeah, you're totally agree, joking, You're right, you're right.

744
00:40:08.360 --> 00:40:10.199
War war's a racket, your one hundredercent right?

745
00:40:10.440 --> 00:40:14.639
Did you not get that? Yeah? I missing because we're

746
00:40:14.679 --> 00:40:15.119
not texting.

747
00:40:15.199 --> 00:40:18.599
I thought it was something I don't know. You're right,

748
00:40:19.079 --> 00:40:19.400
l MK.

749
00:40:19.639 --> 00:40:20.000
Let me go.

750
00:40:28.679 --> 00:40:30.239
Now, there are there are a lot of red flags

751
00:40:30.239 --> 00:40:35.079
out there. There's the oscillator is very overbought. The sm

752
00:40:35.119 --> 00:40:38.920
P five hundred price to earning ratio is higher than

753
00:40:38.960 --> 00:40:43.280
it's been through any economic expansion I could find. There

754
00:40:43.280 --> 00:40:45.639
are just a lot of things that you're looking at

755
00:40:45.719 --> 00:40:46.280
going boil.

756
00:40:46.440 --> 00:40:48.639
Yeah, well, going back to just be careful with some

757
00:40:48.639 --> 00:40:50.360
people that are looking at China stocks. You're probably getting

758
00:40:50.400 --> 00:40:52.760
little excited right now. You see how much these things

759
00:40:52.800 --> 00:40:54.440
have taken off in the last five days, and you

760
00:40:54.480 --> 00:40:56.480
see how where they were. If you look at a

761
00:40:56.480 --> 00:40:58.800
price chart, you can kind of go and say, this

762
00:40:58.840 --> 00:41:02.000
thing could run right. Things don't really just all of

763
00:41:02.039 --> 00:41:02.719
a sudden V.

764
00:41:03.039 --> 00:41:03.199
Right.

765
00:41:03.239 --> 00:41:05.679
The pandemic was a very unique situation where you had

766
00:41:05.679 --> 00:41:08.159
that V in the chart. But that doesn't usually happen.

767
00:41:08.400 --> 00:41:10.920
You might have a you might have a short term balance,

768
00:41:11.000 --> 00:41:12.480
but it doesn't normally happen like that.

769
00:41:12.559 --> 00:41:15.400
So well, you shaw Win Resorts jump fifteen percent exactly

770
00:41:15.400 --> 00:41:18.119
because of their operation in Macau. And now everybody's going

771
00:41:18.159 --> 00:41:20.039
to come back to McCaw and everything's going to get better.

772
00:41:20.159 --> 00:41:22.840
It's gonna be a number of months before you see it.

773
00:41:22.960 --> 00:41:26.559
You had PDD that reported earnings a little like two

774
00:41:26.599 --> 00:41:29.000
weeks ago they were training about one hundred and forty dollars,

775
00:41:29.159 --> 00:41:31.280
fell down to ninety right back at one forty this

776
00:41:31.360 --> 00:41:34.280
week about thirty five percent of micrime. That was a

777
00:41:34.280 --> 00:41:34.760
good one.

778
00:41:34.840 --> 00:41:38.360
That's what stimulated the markets on Thursday. Yes, because they

779
00:41:38.360 --> 00:41:41.159
had better than expected earnings and it went up eighteen

780
00:41:41.239 --> 00:41:43.719
percent and it went from like basically ninety up to

781
00:41:43.719 --> 00:41:44.599
one hundred and six.

782
00:41:44.719 --> 00:41:46.400
Right, yep, they.

783
00:41:46.320 --> 00:41:48.440
Were one hundred and fifty eight that to a few

784
00:41:48.440 --> 00:41:52.079
months ago. All right, so okay, they got a nice pop,

785
00:41:52.159 --> 00:41:56.000
big deal. They're not one fifty five, so it doesn't matter.

786
00:41:56.079 --> 00:41:58.079
Oh I should have been in if you know. The

787
00:41:58.199 --> 00:42:00.119
idea is, at the end of the day, there's ri

788
00:42:01.159 --> 00:42:04.760
understand the risk. And this is why I tell people

789
00:42:05.159 --> 00:42:06.960
if you just don't care and just want to sit

790
00:42:07.000 --> 00:42:08.599
there and you think it's always going to come back

791
00:42:08.639 --> 00:42:09.679
and your emotions are good.

792
00:42:09.760 --> 00:42:11.679
Yeah, great, go buy the end there and buy what

793
00:42:11.719 --> 00:42:13.480
you're on, have the portfolio, don't worry about it.

794
00:42:14.000 --> 00:42:16.239
As you get older and you get into your sixties,

795
00:42:16.239 --> 00:42:19.400
your seventies and your eighties, the stress level of the

796
00:42:19.440 --> 00:42:22.039
markets going down and the media going ahead and given

797
00:42:22.079 --> 00:42:24.760
to you tells me that that is not the way

798
00:42:24.800 --> 00:42:28.360
people are. My experience tells me you need to understand

799
00:42:28.559 --> 00:42:30.599
it's not how much money you make, it's how much

800
00:42:30.639 --> 00:42:33.159
you don't lose on the downside, so you can sleep

801
00:42:33.159 --> 00:42:35.239
at night and invest it to come the other way,

802
00:42:35.519 --> 00:42:36.440
mitigating risk.

803
00:42:36.719 --> 00:42:39.920
People talk about it. Very few people do it. We

804
00:42:40.000 --> 00:42:40.320
do it.

805
00:42:40.480 --> 00:42:42.559
The reason we do it is because we know how

806
00:42:42.599 --> 00:42:44.480
to do it, and that is one of the things

807
00:42:44.480 --> 00:42:48.039
that separate us from everybody else. We just don't talk

808
00:42:48.039 --> 00:42:50.639
about it. We just don't put you in annuities. We

809
00:42:50.800 --> 00:42:53.960
just don't go ahead and say, oh, it's okay, they'll just.

810
00:42:53.880 --> 00:42:56.719
Sit through it. We do something, and if we're wrong,

811
00:42:57.000 --> 00:43:00.440
we change it. It's that simple. Change it.

812
00:43:00.840 --> 00:43:04.000
So you don't make a hundred, you only make ten

813
00:43:04.039 --> 00:43:07.400
percent of the market flies instead of fifteen or twenty percent.

814
00:43:07.599 --> 00:43:09.760
You're still gonna make money. If we're wrong.

815
00:43:10.360 --> 00:43:12.840
But if we're right, you're gonna make a lot more

816
00:43:12.880 --> 00:43:15.119
money because you're not gonna get killed on the dompside,

817
00:43:15.840 --> 00:43:18.639
and you'll be able to go ahead and use that

818
00:43:18.719 --> 00:43:20.960
money even if you did get killed on the downside,

819
00:43:21.119 --> 00:43:22.960
because you're in the socks that will make you so

820
00:43:23.079 --> 00:43:25.199
much money. Then you'll be able to put all that

821
00:43:25.239 --> 00:43:27.440
other money back to work, so when it comes back,

822
00:43:27.480 --> 00:43:29.079
you don't have to be back to eve and you

823
00:43:29.119 --> 00:43:30.320
have to you'll be ahead of the game.

824
00:43:30.480 --> 00:43:32.719
Yeah, and if you don't know how risky your portfolio is,

825
00:43:32.760 --> 00:43:35.039
that's a perfect opportunity to take advantage of our risk

826
00:43:35.079 --> 00:43:37.159
assessment tool that all you have to do is send

827
00:43:37.199 --> 00:43:40.360
in a portfolio a statement. Recent statement, will put it

828
00:43:40.360 --> 00:43:42.760
into our analyzer and show you exactly if a score

829
00:43:42.840 --> 00:43:45.880
one to one hundred, how risky your portfolio is, what

830
00:43:46.039 --> 00:43:49.960
type of volatility your portfolio could experience in an event

831
00:43:50.159 --> 00:43:53.559
like a recession, like a pandemic, drop like a twenty

832
00:43:53.639 --> 00:43:57.519
twenty two market where bonds got hurt really hard. So

833
00:43:57.880 --> 00:43:59.280
there's a lot of different things that you have to

834
00:43:59.320 --> 00:44:00.920
look at your porfolio, the type of risks you have.

835
00:44:01.239 --> 00:44:03.000
A lot of people don't even realize that they're bonds

836
00:44:03.280 --> 00:44:05.639
that part of the portfolio could be risky until twenty

837
00:44:05.639 --> 00:44:06.360
twenty two happened.

838
00:44:06.559 --> 00:44:10.159
And when times are like this, you get inundated with newsletters,

839
00:44:10.840 --> 00:44:15.559
newsletters with the promises of the next Nvidia, the promises

840
00:44:15.960 --> 00:44:18.679
of they can find the AI stocks that are going

841
00:44:18.719 --> 00:44:21.440
to be great, with the promises of everything else. And

842
00:44:21.480 --> 00:44:24.320
then I sit back and say, Okay, where were you

843
00:44:24.360 --> 00:44:28.679
with the utility companies that just exploded? Okay, where were

844
00:44:28.719 --> 00:44:32.679
you with these things? To me, newsletter guys and economists

845
00:44:34.840 --> 00:44:39.159
are basically people that want your money but can't make

846
00:44:39.199 --> 00:44:42.440
it on their own. Because, let me tell you something,

847
00:44:42.519 --> 00:44:44.679
the people I respected this business are the ones that

848
00:44:44.719 --> 00:44:48.159
pull the trigger, the ones that allocate the portfolios, the

849
00:44:48.199 --> 00:44:51.400
ones that have to answer the phone when things aren't

850
00:44:51.400 --> 00:44:55.159
going right, and that's financial advisor, money manager.

851
00:44:55.239 --> 00:44:56.119
The people that are.

852
00:44:56.000 --> 00:45:00.519
Actually on the front lines handling the money on an

853
00:45:00.559 --> 00:45:04.159
everyday basis. Those are the people that I respect in

854
00:45:04.199 --> 00:45:07.920
this business. Not people telling everyone what to do and

855
00:45:08.000 --> 00:45:10.039
not doing it and taking the heat.

856
00:45:10.480 --> 00:45:14.840
Right. I agree, I agree, We've got the yield curve

857
00:45:14.960 --> 00:45:18.400
is becoming more and more normal. I noticed that the

858
00:45:18.480 --> 00:45:21.199
two years three point five six, they're ten years now.

859
00:45:21.440 --> 00:45:24.960
Three point seven six. Right, so we've got twenty basis

860
00:45:25.000 --> 00:45:30.519
points spread. And again, in the perfect world, the longer

861
00:45:30.559 --> 00:45:33.079
you go out on the yield curve, the higher your

862
00:45:33.159 --> 00:45:37.400
rate should be. Theory being here taking more risk, and

863
00:45:37.480 --> 00:45:39.039
the longer term you should get paid for it.

864
00:45:39.199 --> 00:45:41.559
Right, short end of the curve is still inverted, but yes,

865
00:45:41.679 --> 00:45:43.280
the long end is where it should be.

866
00:45:43.400 --> 00:45:46.559
Now another thing we got to talk about too, man,

867
00:45:47.039 --> 00:45:49.559
You know, you know the big difference between the two

868
00:45:49.559 --> 00:45:50.519
people of taxes.

869
00:45:51.199 --> 00:45:52.000
If there was ever.

870
00:45:51.880 --> 00:45:54.039
Time to find out if this is a good time

871
00:45:54.119 --> 00:45:57.760
or not good time for you personally for a wealth conversion,

872
00:45:58.079 --> 00:46:01.480
it's over the next few months. We've been doing a

873
00:46:01.480 --> 00:46:03.639
ton of them. I mean, well a ton, that's a lot.

874
00:46:03.679 --> 00:46:07.800
That's two thousand all right, Okay, let's say we've been

875
00:46:07.840 --> 00:46:12.719
doing many of them, fifty sixty of them, Okay, of

876
00:46:12.800 --> 00:46:15.639
people coming in and saying should I should I not

877
00:46:16.800 --> 00:46:17.880
doing wealth conversion?

878
00:46:18.360 --> 00:46:19.679
And we went through the whole plan.

879
00:46:20.199 --> 00:46:22.840
We look at the whole plan, the tax situation, what

880
00:46:22.880 --> 00:46:25.440
you're making where you are, whether or not it makes sense.

881
00:46:27.000 --> 00:46:30.920
About half makes sense, about half. Not everybody makes sense.

882
00:46:30.960 --> 00:46:33.440
I just did one where we decided it was just

883
00:46:33.480 --> 00:46:35.440
a lot of too much work for the game and

884
00:46:35.480 --> 00:46:37.320
it wasn't worth it at the end of the day.

885
00:46:38.639 --> 00:46:41.440
You know, And we just tell it to you straight.

886
00:46:42.000 --> 00:46:44.559
You know, here it is it, don't do it. We

887
00:46:44.639 --> 00:46:46.599
advise you to do this, or don't advise you to

888
00:46:46.639 --> 00:46:48.599
do that. It's pretty black and white once you get

889
00:46:48.599 --> 00:46:49.360
down the numbers.

890
00:46:49.400 --> 00:46:51.840
And that's also the fee. It's not just money management,

891
00:46:51.920 --> 00:46:54.880
it's planning. That's there's a lot of just money managers.

892
00:46:54.880 --> 00:46:57.400
But then there's the advisor that goes the extra step

893
00:46:57.440 --> 00:47:01.400
and goes into rock conversions, medicare extra things on top of.

894
00:47:01.280 --> 00:47:04.360
Those money management, social securities, that long term care, medica.

895
00:47:04.519 --> 00:47:06.559
Like you say, there's so many moving parks.

896
00:47:06.880 --> 00:47:08.400
That's what a financial plan is.

897
00:47:08.480 --> 00:47:10.360
As you get older, there're more and more moving park.

898
00:47:10.440 --> 00:47:13.360
It's not looking at a whiteboard and someone's saying here, there, here,

899
00:47:13.440 --> 00:47:16.039
you are, here you are. That's old school and believing

900
00:47:16.079 --> 00:47:18.079
I'm old school when I'm not old school when it

901
00:47:18.079 --> 00:47:20.880
comes to financial planning anymore. It's the way it needs

902
00:47:20.920 --> 00:47:23.920
to be with the complexities they are and these guys

903
00:47:23.920 --> 00:47:25.760
do a great job. Would be right back. It's the

904
00:47:25.760 --> 00:47:28.559
Money Matter Show. Thank you so much for listening.

905
00:47:29.719 --> 00:47:31.440
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is

906
00:47:31.480 --> 00:47:34.519
Sebastian Borgsini. I'm here with Todd Glick Junior, David Sherwood,

907
00:47:34.679 --> 00:47:38.320
Dylan Greenberg, and Dean Greenberg. A little rundown of the numbers.

908
00:47:38.360 --> 00:47:40.920
The Dow this week was up point six percent. The

909
00:47:40.960 --> 00:47:43.280
S and P five hundred was also up point six percent.

910
00:47:43.440 --> 00:47:46.079
The NASA is that composits up one percent on the week,

911
00:47:46.400 --> 00:47:49.920
Russell two thousand down six tenths of a percentage, and

912
00:47:50.000 --> 00:47:53.320
the RSB equal weighted S and P five hundred up

913
00:47:53.480 --> 00:47:57.119
point eight percent. Interesting week, Yeah, you.

914
00:47:57.119 --> 00:47:59.400
Can see for the month the actually NASDAC up two

915
00:47:59.440 --> 00:48:02.280
point three on was supposed to be a pretty bad

916
00:48:02.360 --> 00:48:05.920
month if we still had the run up. The market

917
00:48:06.360 --> 00:48:08.559
loved what they saw with the fifty bases point cut

918
00:48:08.639 --> 00:48:10.880
out of the FED and has continued to keep rising.

919
00:48:10.880 --> 00:48:13.400
There's nothing on the horizon that says that we should

920
00:48:14.000 --> 00:48:18.239
go down. The economic reports are fine. Election again, yeah,

921
00:48:18.280 --> 00:48:21.760
it's all too but it doesn't actually impact us right now.

922
00:48:22.159 --> 00:48:25.360
So there is nothing right right now other than maybe

923
00:48:25.480 --> 00:48:28.199
we did see some escalations in the Middle East today

924
00:48:29.159 --> 00:48:34.280
with some strikes out of Israel striked Hazbola. So I

925
00:48:34.360 --> 00:48:37.360
you know who knows that could potentially stir up some things,

926
00:48:37.400 --> 00:48:41.639
but honestly, I think war, if anything, probably lets this.

927
00:48:41.920 --> 00:48:44.400
You know, this just means more buying of weapons. You know,

928
00:48:44.400 --> 00:48:45.960
everything was going to keep getting bid. I don't know

929
00:48:45.960 --> 00:48:48.239
how much it impacts. How much does the Middle East

930
00:48:48.239 --> 00:48:50.880
war impact America or China? I really don't think it does.

931
00:48:50.960 --> 00:48:53.480
Yeah, I agree, I agree with you. And it apparently

932
00:48:53.559 --> 00:48:56.400
Israel has taken decided that the best way to rid

933
00:48:56.440 --> 00:48:59.840
themselves of hesiboll and Homasis is simply rhythmsselves.

934
00:49:00.400 --> 00:49:02.440
Yeah, literally literally, yeah.

935
00:49:02.199 --> 00:49:05.840
You don't you know that That's been going on pretty

936
00:49:05.880 --> 00:49:08.639
much my entire lifetime, and I expect it'll be going

937
00:49:08.679 --> 00:49:13.800
on for my daughter's lifetime. And it's when you're when

938
00:49:13.800 --> 00:49:20.079
your entire mindset is to eliminate someone who is stronger

939
00:49:20.119 --> 00:49:22.239
than you. That can go on a long time.

940
00:49:24.119 --> 00:49:25.719
Right, just do the two States things?

941
00:49:27.199 --> 00:49:29.679
Oil this week interesting to move down two and a

942
00:49:29.719 --> 00:49:31.840
half dollars. If you think the economy is picking up

943
00:49:31.960 --> 00:49:34.800
China stimulus, you know, you'd think, okay, oil should be

944
00:49:34.800 --> 00:49:36.880
getting a bid here right down two and a half

945
00:49:37.000 --> 00:49:41.960
dollars to sixty eight to fifty. Because Saudi Arabia has

946
00:49:42.360 --> 00:49:47.440
kind of decided that they're going to emphasize sales over price, right,

947
00:49:47.960 --> 00:49:49.719
and they're going to turn on the pumps and get

948
00:49:49.719 --> 00:49:52.760
it going. And if that, if they flood the market

949
00:49:52.840 --> 00:49:55.679
with oil, that's going to make it more challenging. Certainly,

950
00:49:55.920 --> 00:49:58.239
gold just keeps keeps on, keeping on.

951
00:49:58.360 --> 00:49:59.679
I'm just going to say that sad he's got to

952
00:49:59.679 --> 00:50:01.760
buy some were Lamborghinis.

953
00:50:01.960 --> 00:50:04.960
Yeah, I guess. I guess they go off once in

954
00:50:04.960 --> 00:50:07.880
a while and buy some more gold. The gold just

955
00:50:08.000 --> 00:50:10.840
continues to go. I remember it hit twenty three hundred

956
00:50:10.920 --> 00:50:12.760
and then it kind of fell back a little bit,

957
00:50:12.800 --> 00:50:15.199
and then it went back to twenty three hundred, and

958
00:50:15.239 --> 00:50:17.000
it seemed to kind of be building a base there

959
00:50:17.000 --> 00:50:18.960
on the hut. It looks like it's got a pretty

960
00:50:19.039 --> 00:50:23.320
solid foundation around twenty three hundred, and the next thing,

961
00:50:23.320 --> 00:50:25.960
you know, a way, it goes twenty six fifty. And

962
00:50:26.119 --> 00:50:29.239
the bitcoin had a good week, up about five percent.

963
00:50:29.360 --> 00:50:33.000
I finished the week about sixty five seven, trade twenty

964
00:50:33.000 --> 00:50:35.079
four to seven, So I really didn't finish the week.

965
00:50:35.679 --> 00:50:37.840
When I looked on Friday, it was sixty five seven,

966
00:50:37.920 --> 00:50:41.840
which is the highest it's been since the second of August.

967
00:50:41.880 --> 00:50:44.239
I believe, yeah, I mean, based on what I'm seeing

968
00:50:45.119 --> 00:50:48.199
I think we have we have a potential it because

969
00:50:48.239 --> 00:50:51.079
it can go crazy over the next couple couple months,

970
00:50:51.440 --> 00:50:54.239
i'd be I mean, I'm not one hundred percent shore

971
00:50:54.280 --> 00:50:56.519
on it, but I'm pretty I thought, pretty bolish, I.

972
00:50:56.440 --> 00:50:57.840
Thought you were talking about a little bit of a

973
00:50:57.880 --> 00:50:58.840
fake out this week.

974
00:50:59.039 --> 00:51:03.039
Well yeah, but it it confirmed that it's on a trend.

975
00:51:03.119 --> 00:51:05.519
So as far as I'm aware, I think, you know,

976
00:51:06.800 --> 00:51:07.679
eighties by the end of.

977
00:51:07.639 --> 00:51:09.800
The year, it's you were at You were at fifty

978
00:51:09.880 --> 00:51:11.320
seven hundred on the S and P, and it went

979
00:51:11.400 --> 00:51:13.400
right there, and then you changed that to fifty eight hundred,

980
00:51:13.400 --> 00:51:14.639
and that looked like going right there.

981
00:51:14.719 --> 00:51:17.360
You know, it's been an interesting one. The bitcoin miners,

982
00:51:17.360 --> 00:51:20.079
they seem like they're getting suppressed pretty dang heavily. I'm

983
00:51:20.119 --> 00:51:23.159
pretty sure. Riot Platforms was like, I think I had

984
00:51:23.199 --> 00:51:26.400
a thirty five forty percent short interest on Friday. By

985
00:51:26.440 --> 00:51:29.480
no means am I suggesting you should buy these stocks.

986
00:51:29.519 --> 00:51:32.440
But they have gotten heavily suppressed.

987
00:51:33.039 --> 00:51:34.599
I plain heavily.

988
00:51:34.880 --> 00:51:36.840
Thirty five percent short interest is what he was saying.

989
00:51:36.840 --> 00:51:38.199
Thirty five percent short interesting.

990
00:51:38.360 --> 00:51:40.760
It's abnormally high for the stock.

991
00:51:41.199 --> 00:51:44.920
And you would think that the bitcoin miners would benefit

992
00:51:44.960 --> 00:51:47.159
off of the price of bitcoin rising.

993
00:51:46.920 --> 00:51:49.079
And they haven't been. I don't follow them at all.

994
00:51:49.480 --> 00:51:52.000
Are they down, They're not down, They're just kind of flat.

995
00:51:52.039 --> 00:51:54.800
They're getting suppressed. The price actions definitely gett suppressed by

996
00:51:54.800 --> 00:51:58.760
the short buyers. But it's it's a complicated thing, you know, it's.

997
00:51:59.000 --> 00:52:01.440
I understand it is a short selling is, as most

998
00:52:01.440 --> 00:52:03.559
of the listeners know, is selling stock you don't own

999
00:52:03.760 --> 00:52:05.480
with the idea that you'll buy it back cheaper.

1000
00:52:05.760 --> 00:52:08.119
Short interest is the amount of stock that has actually

1001
00:52:08.599 --> 00:52:10.360
been sold for that purpose.

1002
00:52:10.440 --> 00:52:12.840
And the more people, the shortest stock, those people are

1003
00:52:12.920 --> 00:52:15.440
ultimately buyers. At some point they are going to be

1004
00:52:15.480 --> 00:52:16.400
forced to bois.

1005
00:52:16.559 --> 00:52:18.719
Yeah, and that's what happened with the game stop thing.

1006
00:52:18.760 --> 00:52:21.079
And when you buy a stock, when you buy a stock,

1007
00:52:21.320 --> 00:52:25.960
the downside is zero, and when your shortest stock, the

1008
00:52:26.039 --> 00:52:27.719
downside is unlimited.

1009
00:52:28.519 --> 00:52:31.159
Right, I'd have to assume that that's kind of or

1010
00:52:31.760 --> 00:52:33.559
it played into what we saw in China as well.

1011
00:52:33.559 --> 00:52:35.239
I'm sure that there's a lot of shorts there that

1012
00:52:35.280 --> 00:52:38.519
had to cover and you know, cause that ten percent gain.

1013
00:52:38.639 --> 00:52:42.880
Of course, their policy decision had a lot to do

1014
00:52:42.960 --> 00:52:46.079
with it, but there there's probably some short selling bove there.

1015
00:52:46.639 --> 00:52:50.800
I think one of the more interesting stock patterns that

1016
00:52:51.119 --> 00:52:55.679
I've witnessed over the years. One of the most popular

1017
00:52:55.719 --> 00:52:58.360
stocks on the market for all kinds of good reasons

1018
00:52:58.480 --> 00:53:02.000
is Costco. Costco seems to be one of those companies

1019
00:53:02.039 --> 00:53:05.519
that just simply is doing everything right and continues to

1020
00:53:05.559 --> 00:53:09.480
do everything right, but for whatever reason, the stock tends

1021
00:53:09.519 --> 00:53:13.119
to drop after an earnings report, no matter how good

1022
00:53:13.119 --> 00:53:16.920
the Ironers report is. And sure enough, the stock moved

1023
00:53:16.960 --> 00:53:20.440
three percent lower at the open on Friday after reporting

1024
00:53:20.480 --> 00:53:24.840
a strong quarter on Thursday night. Just the way it goes,

1025
00:53:25.599 --> 00:53:28.000
you know, it's it's it's kind of it's kind of funny.

1026
00:53:28.000 --> 00:53:31.719
How that how that works. The we talked a little

1027
00:53:31.719 --> 00:53:36.000
bit about Constellation Energy. We told people the people last

1028
00:53:36.000 --> 00:53:37.920
week that the stock had hit a new all time

1029
00:53:38.039 --> 00:53:41.159
high on their plans to start the three Mile Island

1030
00:53:41.320 --> 00:53:45.360
nuclear plant and more gains on Monday, after Morgan Stanley

1031
00:53:45.440 --> 00:53:48.639
hiked his twelve month target, implying a nearly twenty three

1032
00:53:48.719 --> 00:53:52.119
percent upside. This is on Monday, after the after hitting

1033
00:53:52.199 --> 00:53:55.599
an all time high, they go to a bye, think

1034
00:53:55.639 --> 00:53:58.159
it's going to go twenty three percent higher? Firm believes

1035
00:53:58.239 --> 00:54:01.599
Constellations plans to restart it's a three Mile Island nuclear

1036
00:54:01.639 --> 00:54:06.079
plant to meet demands for power from Microsoft data center. Todd.

1037
00:54:06.119 --> 00:54:09.159
You you mentioned that the need for power for data

1038
00:54:09.199 --> 00:54:11.679
centers was off the sharks, and that's what they're trying

1039
00:54:11.719 --> 00:54:15.599
to meet here. How interesting, SMR. We talked about it

1040
00:54:15.679 --> 00:54:20.880
last week. Twenty percent gain last week after we mentioned

1041
00:54:20.920 --> 00:54:24.719
it on the show. Yeah, amazing, it's amazing how many

1042
00:54:24.719 --> 00:54:27.480
people are listening. Well, I'm pretty sure that, well, you

1043
00:54:27.480 --> 00:54:29.599
don't think that's what I'm pretty.

1044
00:54:29.320 --> 00:54:31.360
Sure that when we mentioned it it had gone up

1045
00:54:31.400 --> 00:54:33.079
like what fifteen percent of last week too.

1046
00:54:33.360 --> 00:54:35.159
Yeah, it's up like probably forty percent in the last

1047
00:54:35.159 --> 00:54:35.480
two weeks.

1048
00:54:35.519 --> 00:54:38.039
It's crazy. And SMR, how do you want to explain

1049
00:54:38.159 --> 00:54:39.239
just a little bit about what they do?

1050
00:54:39.360 --> 00:54:42.039
Yeah, it's a stands a small modular reactor and what

1051
00:54:42.079 --> 00:54:45.960
they are nuclear fission reactors. And it's different than nuclear fusion,

1052
00:54:46.079 --> 00:54:48.800
which is what three Mile Island is. It's nuclear fusion.

1053
00:54:48.800 --> 00:54:52.639
Those are those big cone looking things are I don't

1054
00:54:52.639 --> 00:54:54.519
know what the shape would be, but everyone knows what

1055
00:54:54.559 --> 00:54:56.639
a nuclear kind of plant would look like. These are

1056
00:54:56.840 --> 00:54:59.280
a lot smaller and don't take the same type of

1057
00:54:59.320 --> 00:55:01.880
regulatory approval, don't take the same type of time to

1058
00:55:01.920 --> 00:55:05.280
get set up, but have a lot of good energy production,

1059
00:55:05.360 --> 00:55:07.920
and you can put them closer to cities because they

1060
00:55:07.960 --> 00:55:09.960
don't have the same type of ability to explode or

1061
00:55:10.480 --> 00:55:12.960
release things, and so they're a lot safer and they

1062
00:55:12.960 --> 00:55:15.559
produce the same amount of energy. So these small fusion

1063
00:55:15.599 --> 00:55:17.800
react there's a couple of companies that do them. SMR

1064
00:55:17.880 --> 00:55:20.599
is literally the ticker for one of the companies. Another

1065
00:55:20.639 --> 00:55:24.559
company is Oaklow Oklo. These companies, if you look at

1066
00:55:24.559 --> 00:55:27.400
their earnings, that's about nothing. I mean, they don't make

1067
00:55:27.599 --> 00:55:33.280
we're not recommending these about Yeah, we're just building out basically, right,

1068
00:55:33.360 --> 00:55:35.639
So they're just building out these things. And even three

1069
00:55:35.639 --> 00:55:37.519
mile Island is not going to be live until twenty

1070
00:55:37.559 --> 00:55:38.000
twenty eight.

1071
00:55:38.119 --> 00:55:40.079
Yeah, that's how long it's gonna take to get and run.

1072
00:55:40.480 --> 00:55:41.199
These things take.

1073
00:55:41.360 --> 00:55:44.960
These things take a long time, especially fusion plants like

1074
00:55:44.960 --> 00:55:47.199
the things that China. China is leading the way with

1075
00:55:47.360 --> 00:55:51.000
fusion plants right now, they have like fifteen under construction.

1076
00:55:51.400 --> 00:55:54.960
It takes about fifteen years for that to even come on. Actually,

1077
00:55:54.960 --> 00:55:56.519
I think it's only eight that they have on construction.

1078
00:55:56.800 --> 00:55:58.880
All the hoops you have to run run through.

1079
00:55:58.960 --> 00:56:00.639
Well, and then in China they don't have to run

1080
00:56:00.679 --> 00:56:02.400
through the hoops because they can just cut through the

1081
00:56:02.440 --> 00:56:05.840
red tape really quickly. But in America you have a bureaucracy,

1082
00:56:05.920 --> 00:56:10.519
you have the SA or whoever the environmental people are

1083
00:56:10.519 --> 00:56:12.800
that really hold back the production of these things. So

1084
00:56:13.960 --> 00:56:16.400
now that we have the need for it, I think

1085
00:56:16.440 --> 00:56:18.719
what we're seeing is there's pretty much you don't have

1086
00:56:18.760 --> 00:56:21.239
a choice. We need to use this or the grid

1087
00:56:21.280 --> 00:56:22.119
is going to shut down.

1088
00:56:22.159 --> 00:56:24.559
I mean when you say that China they have less

1089
00:56:24.760 --> 00:56:26.599
or they jump through the red tape a little bit quicker.

1090
00:56:27.599 --> 00:56:30.800
Is there not any sort of global regulation? I mean,

1091
00:56:30.880 --> 00:56:33.000
can they just go do whatever they want? Y?

1092
00:56:33.360 --> 00:56:34.239
Yeah, what are they going to do?

1093
00:56:34.320 --> 00:56:34.480
Yeah?

1094
00:56:34.519 --> 00:56:36.559
I don't know some of the in there.

1095
00:56:36.679 --> 00:56:39.199
There's no global police of nuclear power plant.

1096
00:56:39.239 --> 00:56:43.679
Yeah, that's why, like if you're a superpower, you I mean,

1097
00:56:43.920 --> 00:56:46.559
obviously if you're a small country like Iran and they

1098
00:56:46.559 --> 00:56:48.360
try to get their nuclear power up. That's why we

1099
00:56:48.440 --> 00:56:52.239
literally went there and did the whole WMD invasion, and

1100
00:56:52.840 --> 00:56:55.880
the whole thing that they had was nuclear power and

1101
00:56:55.920 --> 00:56:58.920
they were trying to reverse engineer into a nuclear weapon.

1102
00:56:59.280 --> 00:57:01.800
And that's the issue you with currently, we were scared

1103
00:57:01.840 --> 00:57:05.000
about having all these countries having nuclear power reverse engineering,

1104
00:57:05.000 --> 00:57:07.559
and then everyone has a nuclear weapon and it's like, goodness, gracious,

1105
00:57:07.599 --> 00:57:10.280
there's some really crazy leaders out there that we don't

1106
00:57:10.320 --> 00:57:13.360
want to have nuclear weapons in their hands because they

1107
00:57:13.440 --> 00:57:15.920
might even think rationally, they might just do something crazy

1108
00:57:15.920 --> 00:57:18.079
and it sets off the chain reaction. So that's the

1109
00:57:18.119 --> 00:57:21.320
idea of why nuclear hasn't been brought about on the masses.

1110
00:57:21.719 --> 00:57:24.480
But if you see all the developed countries it has

1111
00:57:24.559 --> 00:57:26.880
like France, for example, I've already built out a lot

1112
00:57:26.880 --> 00:57:29.119
of nuclear but they're not building new ones and that's

1113
00:57:29.159 --> 00:57:30.440
going to be a problem because the ones that they

1114
00:57:30.440 --> 00:57:32.400
built out twenty years ago are going to go out

1115
00:57:32.440 --> 00:57:34.719
of commission eventually and then they're going to behind the

1116
00:57:34.719 --> 00:57:36.599
eight ball. So these things take a long time, and

1117
00:57:36.679 --> 00:57:39.559
that's why these fission reactors are kind of a next

1118
00:57:39.559 --> 00:57:41.679
step evolution where you don't have to wait as long.

1119
00:57:41.719 --> 00:57:44.000
It's still going to be three four years to create

1120
00:57:44.039 --> 00:57:49.199
these fission reactors versus you know, ten fifteen years. But yeah,

1121
00:57:49.400 --> 00:57:50.119
it's a big deal.

1122
00:57:50.320 --> 00:57:53.320
I think that the decision by Consolation and Energy, a

1123
00:57:53.360 --> 00:57:57.840
major company, to restart three Mile Island, and that it

1124
00:57:57.880 --> 00:58:00.679
could actually do that, it could actually get their regulatory

1125
00:58:00.719 --> 00:58:04.920
approval to do that, I think really encourage these SMRs

1126
00:58:06.119 --> 00:58:10.800
to be taken more seriously. And if we are going

1127
00:58:10.880 --> 00:58:14.480
to have a mindset in this country that accepts a

1128
00:58:14.599 --> 00:58:20.559
nuclear fusion or nuclear fission, and you've got companies that

1129
00:58:20.639 --> 00:58:25.000
can pump these things out like prefab houses, that's going

1130
00:58:25.079 --> 00:58:27.880
to be a really nice business to be in. But

1131
00:58:28.000 --> 00:58:30.119
it's a long ways down the road. And most of

1132
00:58:30.159 --> 00:58:32.760
these companies have gone up forty fifty percent in the

1133
00:58:32.880 --> 00:58:35.639
last thirty days. I don't know how that's going to

1134
00:58:35.719 --> 00:58:36.079
work out.

1135
00:58:36.199 --> 00:58:37.840
And another thing that you can look at is the

1136
00:58:37.960 --> 00:58:40.920
uur It's an ETF four uranium. Uranium is one of

1137
00:58:40.960 --> 00:58:50.119
the most used commodities in the nuclear reaction energy production stage. Now,

1138
00:58:50.239 --> 00:58:53.400
fusion uses a lot more uranium than fission does, but

1139
00:58:53.599 --> 00:58:55.760
you're still going to need a lot of uranium for

1140
00:58:55.800 --> 00:58:59.719
these type of reactions. So RA has gone up quite

1141
00:58:59.719 --> 00:59:03.239
a bit over the last actually three weeks, it's gone

1142
00:59:03.280 --> 00:59:05.920
up quite a bit. So that's more of the miners though,

1143
00:59:06.119 --> 00:59:09.599
so uranium minors versus the people that are actually creating

1144
00:59:09.599 --> 00:59:10.119
the plants.

1145
00:59:10.440 --> 00:59:12.639
I'm pretty sure it pays a pretty good dividend too.

1146
00:59:12.920 --> 00:59:15.719
Uranium pays about a five percent dividend so yes, they.

1147
00:59:15.559 --> 00:59:18.199
Have a you paid something for sitting there waiting. Yes,

1148
00:59:19.000 --> 00:59:21.239
and it's abo it's folatile.

1149
00:59:21.599 --> 00:59:23.480
It is a well, yeah, it's pretty volatile.

1150
00:59:23.559 --> 00:59:27.199
Yeah, you're and you're going to you're betting on things

1151
00:59:27.239 --> 00:59:33.440
that are potentially happening in four, five, six years from now.

1152
00:59:34.400 --> 00:59:37.119
Yeah, and for some people that makes a lot of sense, right,

1153
00:59:37.159 --> 00:59:39.440
for others it doesn't. So that's again it goes back

1154
00:59:39.440 --> 00:59:41.880
to your risk tolerance, your investment time horizon, what you're

1155
00:59:41.880 --> 00:59:44.800
actually you know, looking to do. For example, uranium has

1156
00:59:44.800 --> 00:59:47.159
a bet of one point five a dividend of five

1157
00:59:47.199 --> 00:59:50.280
point eight percent, so you know, the last month it's

1158
00:59:50.360 --> 00:59:52.320
up ten percent because off the news of all this

1159
00:59:52.320 --> 00:59:55.239
stuff coming out, so you can see that there's definitely

1160
00:59:55.239 --> 00:59:58.920
some increase. And on the same token, we saw XLU

1161
00:59:59.000 --> 01:00:01.920
right utilities get the bid off the energy needs of

1162
01:00:02.239 --> 01:00:04.800
AI and along that lines, I think also with the

1163
01:00:06.400 --> 01:00:10.000
hurricane that we're seeing here in Florida, generak G n

1164
01:00:10.119 --> 01:00:12.280
r C could be a play on both of those

1165
01:00:12.360 --> 01:00:16.280
where AI eventually does need a lot of energy. Saying

1166
01:00:16.320 --> 01:00:20.039
with data centers that drains the grid, eventually the grid

1167
01:00:20.079 --> 01:00:23.039
could have blackouts or brownouts, and people don't want to

1168
01:00:23.079 --> 01:00:24.400
have that, so what do they do? They buy their

1169
01:00:24.400 --> 01:00:27.400
own generator for their home let alone. We know hospitals

1170
01:00:27.400 --> 01:00:30.559
have to have generators, Certain businesses have to have generators.

1171
01:00:30.559 --> 01:00:33.119
They can't ever have a moment where they're not online. Right,

1172
01:00:33.280 --> 01:00:37.320
So you know, Generak has a big share of the

1173
01:00:37.400 --> 01:00:41.079
gender generator business. And with hurricane coming about in Florida

1174
01:00:41.480 --> 01:00:43.920
and anytime you have a natural disaster, I've seen that

1175
01:00:43.920 --> 01:00:46.599
Generac gets a bid and we kind of saw that

1176
01:00:47.039 --> 01:00:50.280
on you know this this last week. It's it's got

1177
01:00:50.320 --> 01:00:50.519
a bid.

1178
01:00:50.800 --> 01:00:51.440
That's our trade.

1179
01:00:52.360 --> 01:00:53.559
It's that right now, it's at one.

1180
01:00:55.079 --> 01:00:59.800
Sorry, the twelve month rad return on that, Shaka is

1181
01:00:59.840 --> 01:01:03.360
no great. I know it han't done much Generak.

1182
01:01:03.400 --> 01:01:05.119
The last year it's up forty percent.

1183
01:01:04.920 --> 01:01:07.119
So they're not sure the last twelve months. Yeah, it's

1184
01:01:07.199 --> 01:01:10.639
up forty PNRC. Yes, that's simple, Yeah.

1185
01:01:10.840 --> 01:01:15.000
Forty percent, and it's up nine percent this week, twenty

1186
01:01:15.000 --> 01:01:16.440
one percent year to date. Generak.

1187
01:01:16.559 --> 01:01:18.159
I was looking at six months or a year ago

1188
01:01:18.159 --> 01:01:19.960
and it just seemed like it was just dead money.

1189
01:01:19.960 --> 01:01:21.920
And I couldn't understand it because I thought, like you

1190
01:01:22.079 --> 01:01:25.480
that generators really would be a hot area.

1191
01:01:25.760 --> 01:01:28.360
Yeah, going forward, it doesn't offer a dividend but again, yeah, no,

1192
01:01:28.400 --> 01:01:30.599
it's it's up twenty one percent year to date and

1193
01:01:30.719 --> 01:01:33.320
uh okay nine percent the last week because again and

1194
01:01:33.360 --> 01:01:35.880
it jumped hard on Friday, it was up four percent

1195
01:01:35.880 --> 01:01:38.440
at one point, only finished up about two because again

1196
01:01:38.480 --> 01:01:40.320
the hurricane I had.

1197
01:01:40.360 --> 01:01:42.280
I've been talking for the last few weeks about how

1198
01:01:42.679 --> 01:01:46.800
Walgreens has quit hitting multi decade lows and so maybe

1199
01:01:46.800 --> 01:01:48.880
you guys thesis that they're not going to be in

1200
01:01:48.960 --> 01:01:51.000
business a lot longer is it's not going to come

1201
01:01:51.039 --> 01:01:53.840
to play. And this last week we hit another new

1202
01:01:53.920 --> 01:01:56.880
multi decade low. So two weeks of not hitting a

1203
01:01:57.000 --> 01:02:01.199
multi decade low are over. I just think it's fascinating

1204
01:02:02.400 --> 01:02:05.360
that you've got one hundred and twenty three year old

1205
01:02:05.400 --> 01:02:10.159
company here who are a staple in many neighborhoods in

1206
01:02:10.199 --> 01:02:13.280
many cities. It's going to be really interesting to watch

1207
01:02:14.280 --> 01:02:17.800
how this, how this unfolds, because it really does look

1208
01:02:17.920 --> 01:02:19.719
like a company that's going out of business.

1209
01:02:19.760 --> 01:02:20.880
Do you remember Sears?

1210
01:02:21.079 --> 01:02:24.079
Yep, that's a good point, very good analogy.

1211
01:02:24.159 --> 01:02:26.000
I mean that was the Amazon one time, very.

1212
01:02:25.880 --> 01:02:28.559
Good analogy that if Sears can go, why can't Walgreens?

1213
01:02:28.639 --> 01:02:33.119
Yeah? And even Blockbuster another good jockbuster that was in

1214
01:02:33.199 --> 01:02:34.760
every single neighborhood around the country.

1215
01:02:34.880 --> 01:02:37.320
I think that going back on Blockbuster, they had an

1216
01:02:37.360 --> 01:02:39.440
opportunity to buy Netflix and past.

1217
01:02:39.679 --> 01:02:43.199
Yeah, that's the mistake. I mean, that's that's going to.

1218
01:02:43.199 --> 01:02:46.880
Be one of the biggest business mistakes in history.

1219
01:02:46.280 --> 01:02:48.599
Right that or is firing Steve Jobs.

1220
01:02:49.480 --> 01:02:51.519
Yeah, that wasn't a smart move either.

1221
01:02:51.800 --> 01:02:52.880
Wasn't a really smart movie.

1222
01:02:53.079 --> 01:02:55.599
You know, we we we learned some interesting things about

1223
01:02:55.679 --> 01:02:57.760
four O one k's last week that we shared with

1224
01:02:57.800 --> 01:03:00.760
the listeners about r and DS, that sort of thing.

1225
01:03:03.159 --> 01:03:06.719
I found out something related to that this past week

1226
01:03:07.119 --> 01:03:11.119
is if you have a person who passes away and

1227
01:03:11.199 --> 01:03:15.639
they have three airs and each of those heirs, Let's

1228
01:03:15.639 --> 01:03:18.079
say the person is over seventy three and has been

1229
01:03:18.119 --> 01:03:22.280
taking their RMD. Let's say the RMD is twenty thousand

1230
01:03:22.360 --> 01:03:25.440
dollars for the year, and they had taken ten. It

1231
01:03:25.519 --> 01:03:29.079
means there's another ten thousand dollars that needs to be taken. Okay,

1232
01:03:29.480 --> 01:03:33.440
so they divide the account amongst three different heirs. One

1233
01:03:33.480 --> 01:03:37.320
of the years takes out fifty thousand dollars. Have they

1234
01:03:37.360 --> 01:03:43.159
satisfied the RMD requirement? No, it's pro rata. Every single

1235
01:03:43.239 --> 01:03:47.039
person has to take out their share. So if you've

1236
01:03:47.159 --> 01:03:48.880
got someone says, oh, I don't need the money, I'm

1237
01:03:48.880 --> 01:03:52.400
not going to take it, not an option. You've got

1238
01:03:52.440 --> 01:03:55.639
to take your third of that ten thousand dollars whether

1239
01:03:55.639 --> 01:03:56.119
you want or not.

1240
01:03:56.199 --> 01:04:00.960
I didn't know that, and I rest just clarified that too.

1241
01:04:00.960 --> 01:04:03.719
With inherited diarrays where you have to take one each year,

1242
01:04:03.760 --> 01:04:05.119
you can't just wait till the tenth year.

1243
01:04:05.440 --> 01:04:08.880
So that and that that's something that the IRS has

1244
01:04:08.920 --> 01:04:13.360
been really gray on. So did we get some clarification

1245
01:04:13.519 --> 01:04:17.199
in that? Are they saying absolutely, we know that when

1246
01:04:17.239 --> 01:04:19.480
you inherit an ira, you have ten years to take

1247
01:04:19.480 --> 01:04:23.280
the money, right, and there was no clear guidance as

1248
01:04:23.320 --> 01:04:24.440
to win during that.

1249
01:04:24.360 --> 01:04:27.400
Ten each year for ten years. Obviously, that doesn't mean

1250
01:04:27.400 --> 01:04:28.679
that it's all going to be drained in ten years

1251
01:04:28.719 --> 01:04:30.119
because you could have growth, sure.

1252
01:04:29.880 --> 01:04:32.639
And I mean that would we've advised people to do

1253
01:04:32.679 --> 01:04:34.440
that from a tax point of view. Just take ten

1254
01:04:34.480 --> 01:04:36.960
percent of it each year, makes it spread it out,

1255
01:04:37.079 --> 01:04:39.360
makes it easier, right then taking it all one hit.

1256
01:04:39.800 --> 01:04:41.960
If you don't need the money and you're saying that,

1257
01:04:42.000 --> 01:04:44.719
the IRS says, now clarify that that you have to

1258
01:04:44.760 --> 01:04:47.559
take ten percent of it every year. It's not just

1259
01:04:47.960 --> 01:04:50.199
a dream of financial advising you.

1260
01:04:50.360 --> 01:04:51.719
Yeah, you can't just take it all at the end.

1261
01:04:52.159 --> 01:04:54.079
And then also, I mean, I'm not positive on this,

1262
01:04:54.119 --> 01:04:56.840
but I would assume that applies to the wroth inherited

1263
01:04:56.880 --> 01:04:58.679
roth as well, because again you have to take it

1264
01:04:58.679 --> 01:05:01.159
out within ten years out of the wrath, but you

1265
01:05:01.159 --> 01:05:03.599
can experience that benefit of tax for your growth through

1266
01:05:03.599 --> 01:05:05.880
an extra ten years. So I don't think you can

1267
01:05:05.880 --> 01:05:07.119
just leave it all in ten years, though I can

1268
01:05:07.199 --> 01:05:07.519
take it out.

1269
01:05:07.559 --> 01:05:10.480
Ye. Interesting, interesting rules. Let's talk a little bit about

1270
01:05:10.480 --> 01:05:13.760
EV's I got. Three years ago, Mary Barra said that

1271
01:05:13.920 --> 01:05:17.480
General Motors electric vehicle sales would catch up with Tesla

1272
01:05:17.840 --> 01:05:19.119
by twenty twenty five.

1273
01:05:20.199 --> 01:05:20.920
How's that going.

1274
01:05:21.079 --> 01:05:24.519
GM's EV sales are seventy percent above what they were

1275
01:05:24.559 --> 01:05:28.440
one year ago. Seventy percent, and they're still selling less

1276
01:05:28.480 --> 01:05:33.079
than thirteen percent of what Tesla is selling. And we

1277
01:05:33.199 --> 01:05:35.280
just got a few months to go tell twenty twenty five,

1278
01:05:35.360 --> 01:05:37.920
so Mary better crank it up. In fact, if you

1279
01:05:38.000 --> 01:05:43.119
take the three biggest non Tesla EV sellers and multiply

1280
01:05:43.480 --> 01:05:46.719
their sales by two, you'll still be short of what

1281
01:05:46.760 --> 01:05:50.159
Tesla is delivering. So Tesla clearly dominates that space. One

1282
01:05:50.199 --> 01:05:53.000
of the things that I hear when people talk about

1283
01:05:54.000 --> 01:05:56.679
electric cars is, yeah, but what happens when that battery

1284
01:05:56.719 --> 01:05:59.480
wears out? Man, it's gonna cost you a fortune. To

1285
01:05:59.599 --> 01:06:03.719
study released last week of an independent company who's been

1286
01:06:03.719 --> 01:06:07.760
doing a five year study on EV batteries, and this

1287
01:06:07.840 --> 01:06:11.880
is interesting, guys. What they determined is that the degradation

1288
01:06:12.119 --> 01:06:15.840
of the battery is one point eight percent per year,

1289
01:06:16.960 --> 01:06:20.400
one point eight percent per year, And since batteries tend

1290
01:06:20.440 --> 01:06:25.639
to degrade the fastest in the early years, they're predicting

1291
01:06:25.719 --> 01:06:29.039
that the life of most EV batteries that are being

1292
01:06:29.199 --> 01:06:32.559
produced today is somewhere in the in the neighborhood of

1293
01:06:32.599 --> 01:06:33.639
thirty to forty years.

1294
01:06:34.960 --> 01:06:39.119
I wonder how the elements take play into that, Arizona

1295
01:06:39.199 --> 01:06:39.440
they do.

1296
01:06:39.519 --> 01:06:42.079
If it's hot, a hotter climate will shorten that certainly,

1297
01:06:42.400 --> 01:06:45.239
and we've seen that in range in the range numbers,

1298
01:06:46.159 --> 01:06:47.639
hot and cold climates.

1299
01:06:47.239 --> 01:06:50.400
Will And that's also like I wouldn't have guessed that

1300
01:06:50.400 --> 01:06:53.400
that it loses more of its production in the early

1301
01:06:53.480 --> 01:06:54.880
years than does in the later years.

1302
01:06:55.039 --> 01:06:58.239
Yeah, that in this report that was like a given, like, well,

1303
01:06:58.280 --> 01:07:00.880
you know with batteries, you know they use more. I

1304
01:07:00.920 --> 01:07:01.360
didn't know that.

1305
01:07:01.480 --> 01:07:04.559
Yeah, but it's like if I'm that's a that's a

1306
01:07:04.559 --> 01:07:06.559
tough one for wrapping my head around. I'll have to

1307
01:07:06.599 --> 01:07:08.159
have an expert explaining that one.

1308
01:07:08.440 --> 01:07:12.480
I suppose if a battery you have a full charge, right,

1309
01:07:12.599 --> 01:07:14.719
I think of a flashlight battery. You put a new

1310
01:07:14.719 --> 01:07:17.400
battery and you got a full charge, it's gonna use

1311
01:07:17.400 --> 01:07:19.480
a lot more of that charge in the early stages,

1312
01:07:19.519 --> 01:07:21.559
and then as the battery starts to age, it's gonna

1313
01:07:21.559 --> 01:07:26.800
go And but the report said it as a given. Well,

1314
01:07:26.840 --> 01:07:30.119
you know, batteries degrade faster in the early years.

1315
01:07:29.840 --> 01:07:32.559
Though, like all batteries are alike to now.

1316
01:07:33.840 --> 01:07:35.840
And what they said is this is a this is

1317
01:07:35.960 --> 01:07:38.920
a study that was done over the last five years,

1318
01:07:39.280 --> 01:07:43.199
and the batteries being put into lectury vehicles today we

1319
01:07:43.280 --> 01:07:47.239
know from other reports I've done are much better than

1320
01:07:47.320 --> 01:07:48.440
batteries five years ago.

1321
01:07:48.840 --> 01:07:50.800
And then also, you know, this reminds me of like

1322
01:07:50.880 --> 01:07:52.559
yesterday I was in PT and they were talking about

1323
01:07:52.760 --> 01:07:55.280
knee surgeries are a lot better, but we don't technically

1324
01:07:55.320 --> 01:07:57.199
know for sure, because you know, we've only had like

1325
01:07:57.239 --> 01:07:59.519
fifteen years of data so far the new surgery. So

1326
01:07:59.519 --> 01:08:01.800
it's like, like you just said, it's a five year study.

1327
01:08:01.840 --> 01:08:03.000
Five year study, we don't know.

1328
01:08:03.159 --> 01:08:05.000
We haven't had a EVSE for forty years yet, so

1329
01:08:05.039 --> 01:08:08.920
we don't know exactly for sure, but the evidence is

1330
01:08:08.960 --> 01:08:10.000
looking towards That's.

1331
01:08:09.920 --> 01:08:12.039
The point is they're projecting that the battery should last

1332
01:08:12.119 --> 01:08:15.400
multiple decades. Uh, And what they said is a lot

1333
01:08:15.440 --> 01:08:19.239
longer than you'll ever keep the car. So that takes

1334
01:08:19.640 --> 01:08:23.680
battery replacement off the table essentially.

1335
01:08:24.079 --> 01:08:27.000
Now, I will say, so you're saying thirty years, but

1336
01:08:27.039 --> 01:08:29.279
what happens if ten years down the road my car

1337
01:08:29.439 --> 01:08:33.159
only gives me about eighty five miles range now because

1338
01:08:33.159 --> 01:08:34.239
it's degraded so much.

1339
01:08:34.319 --> 01:08:36.560
No, no, they say, they what they that's a good,

1340
01:08:36.680 --> 01:08:38.960
very good point. But what if you're degrading at one

1341
01:08:39.000 --> 01:08:41.600
point eight percent per year in ten years, you've still

1342
01:08:41.640 --> 01:08:45.479
got eighty two percent eight percent of per year degradation.

1343
01:08:45.600 --> 01:08:47.760
So in ten years you've still got eighty ten percent.

1344
01:08:47.840 --> 01:08:50.640
Well is it compounded? Yeah, huh, it's compounded.

1345
01:08:50.760 --> 01:08:51.039
Simple.

1346
01:08:51.560 --> 01:08:55.479
As we're getting we're getting deeper into this, and I

1347
01:08:55.560 --> 01:08:58.199
wanted to go, and I can see people that I

1348
01:08:58.199 --> 01:09:00.560
can see the listener's eyes glazing over here.

1349
01:09:00.600 --> 01:09:03.399
We talked a little bit about micron, super micro Computer.

1350
01:09:03.479 --> 01:09:06.960
On Thursday, they fell twelve percent and halted just because

1351
01:09:07.119 --> 01:09:10.199
Wall Street Journal reported that the US Justice Department had

1352
01:09:10.239 --> 01:09:15.159
opened a probe into the company. Hindenburg Research revealed last

1353
01:09:15.199 --> 01:09:17.279
month that had taken a short position in the company,

1354
01:09:17.359 --> 01:09:21.640
citing fresh evidence of accounting manipulation. Super micro Computer is

1355
01:09:21.680 --> 01:09:25.239
one of Innvidia's biggest customers. Any thoughts on this.

1356
01:09:25.520 --> 01:09:28.239
I find it interesting that you can short a stock

1357
01:09:28.359 --> 01:09:30.600
sales stock you don't own, with the idea of buying

1358
01:09:30.600 --> 01:09:33.279
it back cheaper, and then get out in the airways

1359
01:09:33.319 --> 01:09:36.039
and just beat the strap out of it and say

1360
01:09:36.079 --> 01:09:37.640
all kinds of whatever you want to say.

1361
01:09:37.760 --> 01:09:39.199
That is super funny.

1362
01:09:39.239 --> 01:09:42.319
It just yeah, But again, you could be a I

1363
01:09:42.319 --> 01:09:44.199
could be I could open up a short selling firm,

1364
01:09:44.279 --> 01:09:46.640
Dave and do the same exact thing, and I don't

1365
01:09:46.640 --> 01:09:48.479
have an audience. You know how they got that audience

1366
01:09:48.560 --> 01:09:51.279
because they were right. They've been right in the past,

1367
01:09:51.800 --> 01:09:55.000
so investors now see them, they're like, oh, they're going

1368
01:09:55.079 --> 01:09:56.920
to be right again. Doesn't mean they're always going to

1369
01:09:56.960 --> 01:09:59.479
be right. But once you have a reputation, especially in

1370
01:09:59.520 --> 01:10:02.039
Wall Street, it stays with you. And that's why when

1371
01:10:02.079 --> 01:10:04.439
people see Warren Buffett buying something, what do they do.

1372
01:10:04.880 --> 01:10:07.600
Some people buy it doesn't need it has any sense

1373
01:10:07.640 --> 01:10:09.439
to it, It's just the name, right, And so I

1374
01:10:09.479 --> 01:10:11.680
think that's you know, this.

1375
01:10:11.600 --> 01:10:14.119
Is more than just Department of Justice stuff with super

1376
01:10:14.159 --> 01:10:18.399
micro computers and and uh the Google lossuit, right, and

1377
01:10:18.680 --> 01:10:22.840
last week Visa was down four percent. Uh, A Justice

1378
01:10:22.880 --> 01:10:26.640
Department has opened a monopoly lossuit against them. Guys, are

1379
01:10:26.640 --> 01:10:30.039
we gonna Are we gonna just sue everybody that is successful?

1380
01:10:30.079 --> 01:10:31.840
I have to They only got like a couple of

1381
01:10:31.880 --> 01:10:32.760
months left potentially.

1382
01:10:32.880 --> 01:10:35.319
The good news is that almost none of these ever

1383
01:10:35.439 --> 01:10:36.760
really amount to anything.

1384
01:10:36.840 --> 01:10:39.079
Yeah, I thought the visa one was really interesting because

1385
01:10:39.079 --> 01:10:41.319
I did when you when you thought about the debit cards,

1386
01:10:41.359 --> 01:10:43.000
I was like, yeah, I think every single one's Visa.

1387
01:10:43.399 --> 01:10:45.359
H do you know one debit card that's not I

1388
01:10:45.399 --> 01:10:47.920
mean pretty much every debit card.

1389
01:10:48.000 --> 01:10:49.840
I've never honestly paid attention to it.

1390
01:10:49.920 --> 01:10:53.039
A debit card I think about, like bank account, I

1391
01:10:53.039 --> 01:10:55.439
don't care always Visa, Yeah, really it's not. I mean

1392
01:10:55.479 --> 01:10:57.840
credit cards, you have all kinds of different providers, right,

1393
01:10:57.920 --> 01:11:01.199
But debit cards, it does seem like it's pretty much Visa.

1394
01:11:01.319 --> 01:11:03.680
So I don't know how if they have a case there.

1395
01:11:03.680 --> 01:11:04.439
But even if they do.

1396
01:11:04.479 --> 01:11:07.720
It's like there's a filing that Nancy Pelosi sold off

1397
01:11:07.760 --> 01:11:09.439
her visa shares back in July.

1398
01:11:12.119 --> 01:11:15.279
Gee, how convenient. I wonder why, Nancy, What are you

1399
01:11:15.399 --> 01:11:21.000
seeing in this shock that did it or fundamental.

1400
01:11:20.479 --> 01:11:22.439
Or you're not selling just half, you're selling all of it?

1401
01:11:22.560 --> 01:11:23.520
Yeah, what is that?

1402
01:11:23.600 --> 01:11:24.800
You're not just trimming back?

1403
01:11:25.359 --> 01:11:28.039
What would cause you to what are you seeing that

1404
01:11:28.039 --> 01:11:30.760
that we're not seeing that that you want to liquidate

1405
01:11:30.800 --> 01:11:31.159
all of.

1406
01:11:31.119 --> 01:11:32.600
Your visas lawsuit?

1407
01:11:32.640 --> 01:11:36.039
Dude? Oh really you were? You were in the hallway

1408
01:11:36.079 --> 01:11:37.720
where and talk to who you.

1409
01:11:37.800 --> 01:11:39.439
Heard of the Department of That's.

1410
01:11:39.239 --> 01:11:42.039
Yeah, that's the kind of stuff. It's just it's so pervasive.

1411
01:11:42.079 --> 01:11:44.880
It's just and even if it's not pervasive, you believe

1412
01:11:44.880 --> 01:11:47.880
it is, and that's that's not good. Well, appreciate your listening.

1413
01:11:47.880 --> 01:11:50.399
We'll be back, got a couple more segments. Thanks again

1414
01:11:50.439 --> 01:11:52.600
for joining us. This is the Money Matter Show.

1415
01:11:53.720 --> 01:11:56.159
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is Toddlick.

1416
01:11:56.199 --> 01:11:59.560
I'm here with Sebastian Borsini and David Sherwood. It was

1417
01:11:59.600 --> 01:12:02.399
a fun week in the markets where we have just

1418
01:12:02.479 --> 01:12:04.960
the investors really loving that. We had a fifty base

1419
01:12:05.000 --> 01:12:07.399
point rate. Cup continue to trend higher. We set a

1420
01:12:07.399 --> 01:12:09.039
new all time high for the S and P and

1421
01:12:09.079 --> 01:12:10.840
the Dow even the equal way to set a new

1422
01:12:10.880 --> 01:12:13.119
all time high. We saw that the equayor and Dow

1423
01:12:13.199 --> 01:12:16.399
did have a good day on Friday, and so much

1424
01:12:16.479 --> 01:12:18.760
a little bit of that rotation. But going back to

1425
01:12:18.840 --> 01:12:20.640
just kind of what we see throughout the year. At

1426
01:12:20.640 --> 01:12:22.960
first we were saying growth, value, what's going to be

1427
01:12:23.000 --> 01:12:25.279
this year? We said value was going to be where

1428
01:12:25.319 --> 01:12:27.279
we think the trend was going to be, and we

1429
01:12:27.279 --> 01:12:29.760
were wrong for the first couple months of the year.

1430
01:12:29.800 --> 01:12:32.439
But now looking back on it, we're definitely right. Because

1431
01:12:32.439 --> 01:12:36.680
you still have value funds out pacing the Nasdaq one hundred,

1432
01:12:36.760 --> 01:12:39.960
you know, which is pretty pretty crazy. So values had

1433
01:12:40.000 --> 01:12:42.720
a great year. Some are up twenty seven twenty eight

1434
01:12:42.760 --> 01:12:45.880
percent including their dividend versus the S and P only

1435
01:12:45.960 --> 01:12:48.520
up twenty percent. NASDAK up twenty percent for the year,

1436
01:12:48.640 --> 01:12:51.800
So you definitely have that rotation in the middle. In

1437
01:12:51.840 --> 01:12:52.920
the middle part of the year.

1438
01:12:53.399 --> 01:12:56.039
You guys have talked a little bit about the fan

1439
01:12:56.159 --> 01:13:00.680
duel and the company those draft Kings, Draft Kings, those companies.

1440
01:13:00.920 --> 01:13:03.319
You know, I've never owned draft Kings because the symbol

1441
01:13:03.359 --> 01:13:04.279
is donkey kong y.

1442
01:13:05.000 --> 01:13:07.840
I just I just get over it DK, and you're not.

1443
01:13:08.039 --> 01:13:09.760
I can't see a donkey kong.

1444
01:13:09.840 --> 01:13:09.960
You know.

1445
01:13:10.119 --> 01:13:12.880
Well, once while the stock is trying to tell you something,

1446
01:13:13.119 --> 01:13:17.399
Oakley Sunglasses came out a couple of decades ago. Company

1447
01:13:17.439 --> 01:13:20.439
has since gone bankrupt. Stock symbol was oh, oh, well,

1448
01:13:20.479 --> 01:13:23.399
then trying to tell you know what's just talk symble.

1449
01:13:23.560 --> 01:13:26.119
Oh oh, there you go. So they were trying to

1450
01:13:26.159 --> 01:13:30.119
tell you, but you didn't listen. So anyway, FanDuel's parent company,

1451
01:13:30.159 --> 01:13:34.199
Flutter Entertainment, already up thirty percent this year, added another

1452
01:13:34.279 --> 01:13:38.119
six percent Wednesday after the company announced their share buyback program.

1453
01:13:38.359 --> 01:13:42.479
Get this up to five billion dollars company also for

1454
01:13:42.800 --> 01:13:45.399
god this is this is a bullyway. The company also

1455
01:13:45.520 --> 01:13:50.079
forecast total revenue growth of about twenty one billion in

1456
01:13:50.199 --> 01:13:53.319
twenty twenty seven. Yeah, are you Are you kidding me?

1457
01:13:53.600 --> 01:13:56.119
I know I saw the same report and I said, really,

1458
01:13:56.199 --> 01:13:58.760
so you get you're just able to say something that's

1459
01:13:58.800 --> 01:14:00.800
basically what they did. Yeah, they're saying, Hey, I'm going

1460
01:14:00.840 --> 01:14:02.000
to make a lot of money in the future.

1461
01:14:02.119 --> 01:14:05.159
Oh, we're going to be so successful, say twenty twenty seven.

1462
01:14:04.880 --> 01:14:06.119
We're gonna be really successful.

1463
01:14:06.119 --> 01:14:09.119
And find somebody in twenty twenty seven that can prove

1464
01:14:09.199 --> 01:14:11.520
me wrong. Right, it's just like awful.

1465
01:14:11.720 --> 01:14:14.760
It was a ridiculous thing, and it's ridiculous. But you know, DraftKings,

1466
01:14:14.760 --> 01:14:16.760
Donkey Kong, you know what, you know, what do monkeys do?

1467
01:14:16.840 --> 01:14:19.039
What apes do? They climbed things, and that stock climbed

1468
01:14:19.039 --> 01:14:22.760
a little higher. There you go, so there you go perspective.

1469
01:14:22.159 --> 01:14:22.319
You know.

1470
01:14:23.239 --> 01:14:25.720
Anyways, yeah, we it did drop the last two days

1471
01:14:25.760 --> 01:14:29.159
of trading though, after that initial increase on a report

1472
01:14:29.199 --> 01:14:30.880
that was pretty much.

1473
01:14:32.840 --> 01:14:36.199
You know, find this guy, yeah Forgazzi, Hey a Bank

1474
01:14:36.239 --> 01:14:39.119
of America. Over the last ninety days, the Banking ETF

1475
01:14:39.159 --> 01:14:42.840
has rallied ten percent, but Bank of America has rallied

1476
01:14:42.840 --> 01:14:47.920
one percent because Warren Buffett has been steadily reducing his

1477
01:14:48.079 --> 01:14:50.039
large position in the bank. Now. I don't know if

1478
01:14:50.039 --> 01:14:52.840
he's going to stop at some point, but he has

1479
01:14:52.880 --> 01:14:56.960
sold nine billion dollars worth of Bank of America.

1480
01:14:57.159 --> 01:15:01.359
He's putting all the he's making room for serious XCM.

1481
01:15:01.439 --> 01:15:04.119
Making him for oxy. That's what he's doing by the

1482
01:15:04.119 --> 01:15:05.760
whole company and take a private.

1483
01:15:05.640 --> 01:15:08.840
Just keep I wouldn't be surprised, I wouldn't be a bit.

1484
01:15:08.800 --> 01:15:11.920
Surprised Novo Nordis cousin's been doing too good. I think

1485
01:15:11.920 --> 01:15:14.920
they're about down fifteen percent in the last two months.

1486
01:15:15.000 --> 01:15:17.560
Novoe and Lily both have seen pressure. Of these are

1487
01:15:17.600 --> 01:15:19.039
the weight loss guys mm.

1488
01:15:18.920 --> 01:15:22.640
Hmm, and sicipate for third quarter setting a software than

1489
01:15:22.640 --> 01:15:29.319
consistent consensus outlook for Novo's blockbuster weight loss drug Egovy. Yeah,

1490
01:15:29.920 --> 01:15:31.840
more people entering that market, you know.

1491
01:15:31.880 --> 01:15:35.920
It was really surprised. I I, for whatever reason, AT

1492
01:15:36.039 --> 01:15:39.680
and T stock and Verizon stock are just have been

1493
01:15:40.159 --> 01:15:44.319
perpetual underperformers. And you buy them for the dividend. I

1494
01:15:44.319 --> 01:15:46.600
think you both pay about six percent dividend, and say

1495
01:15:46.600 --> 01:15:49.560
you want a six percent dividend, you buy Verizon and

1496
01:15:49.600 --> 01:15:51.520
hope it doesn't go down much and hope it just

1497
01:15:51.600 --> 01:15:55.199
kind of hangs in there. Both of them are about

1498
01:15:55.239 --> 01:15:57.720
fifty percent higher in the last twelve month. I was

1499
01:15:57.760 --> 01:16:00.199
blown away by that. I'm blown away by the and

1500
01:16:00.319 --> 01:16:04.479
it's because of this AI upgrade cycle that they everybody

1501
01:16:04.479 --> 01:16:06.119
thinks they're going to be the beneficiary of.

1502
01:16:06.359 --> 01:16:06.880
That was funny.

1503
01:16:06.920 --> 01:16:08.760
A couple of weeks ago, I was asking the boy,

1504
01:16:08.840 --> 01:16:11.119
I was like, Hey, what do you think because we

1505
01:16:11.199 --> 01:16:13.279
normally use AT and T as almost an example of

1506
01:16:13.279 --> 01:16:15.439
why you don't just buy a single dividend stock right

1507
01:16:15.520 --> 01:16:18.279
because your business risk is too high. And I was

1508
01:16:18.319 --> 01:16:20.319
telling the I'm like, what do you think at and

1509
01:16:20.359 --> 01:16:21.960
T is up this year, and they all got it

1510
01:16:21.960 --> 01:16:24.520
wrong because it's like, yeah, we probably maybe not use

1511
01:16:24.720 --> 01:16:27.359
that example too much this year because they're a fifty percent.

1512
01:16:28.399 --> 01:16:34.079
It's unbelievable of the mortgage refis that hit it have hit.

1513
01:16:34.159 --> 01:16:36.920
Excuse me, mortgage race hit a two year low. Refis

1514
01:16:37.000 --> 01:16:40.920
off to the races eight straight weeks up twenty percent

1515
01:16:41.239 --> 01:16:44.479
higher than last week, Todd one hundred and seventy five

1516
01:16:44.560 --> 01:16:46.520
percent above the same period last year.

1517
01:16:46.680 --> 01:16:47.960
That definitely makes sense.

1518
01:16:48.800 --> 01:16:50.199
But you look at that and you say it's a

1519
01:16:50.239 --> 01:16:54.439
six percent. That's not probably not going to be the low.

1520
01:16:54.520 --> 01:16:57.600
I don't think there's many people that believe mortgage rates

1521
01:16:57.640 --> 01:16:59.479
will be higher in six months.

1522
01:16:59.319 --> 01:17:01.920
Right, and they are. Now you have so much download pressure, why.

1523
01:17:01.720 --> 01:17:03.159
Are you refinancie now?

1524
01:17:03.279 --> 01:17:04.960
I always think that's incredible to me.

1525
01:17:05.119 --> 01:17:07.880
Sebastian, I always think that too, But rates very rarely

1526
01:17:07.920 --> 01:17:10.279
always just go down or straight up. There was one

1527
01:17:10.319 --> 01:17:13.159
time we're goes straight up, and that was when the

1528
01:17:13.159 --> 01:17:17.159
FED rate hiked for like eight straight sessions, and that

1529
01:17:17.279 --> 01:17:20.119
was just recently. Right, If you look at all interest

1530
01:17:20.159 --> 01:17:23.720
rate mortgage charts, like their gyrations, and yes, we've only

1531
01:17:23.800 --> 01:17:26.159
been on a down trend for the last several weeks.

1532
01:17:26.640 --> 01:17:29.079
I think five point eight might be where we're headed.

1533
01:17:29.159 --> 01:17:31.199
And then we get to that two hundred day. That's

1534
01:17:31.239 --> 01:17:34.039
a very important technical thing where we probably will bounce

1535
01:17:34.359 --> 01:17:37.479
and then potentially fall into the mid fives. But don't

1536
01:17:37.800 --> 01:17:40.159
I don't think we're in the mid fives until mid

1537
01:17:40.199 --> 01:17:41.960
twenty five, late twenty five, I.

1538
01:17:41.920 --> 01:17:45.319
Hear you, And we're using technical analysis, fundamental analysis. The

1539
01:17:45.520 --> 01:17:49.279
regular retail consumer that's out purchasing at home isn't thinking

1540
01:17:49.279 --> 01:17:51.680
about that type of stuff. So if I'm a consumer

1541
01:17:51.720 --> 01:17:54.319
thinking there's a downward pressure on these interest rates, the

1542
01:17:54.319 --> 01:17:56.159
Fed's saying that they're going to keep cutting rates, why

1543
01:17:56.159 --> 01:17:57.119
am I jumping into it?

1544
01:17:57.199 --> 01:17:59.840
And this is not people personating at home. This is refinances.

1545
01:18:00.279 --> 01:18:02.439
So these are people that own a home, have a

1546
01:18:02.439 --> 01:18:05.199
mortgage on that home, and they're refinanciing it for some reason.

1547
01:18:05.640 --> 01:18:06.560
The odds of.

1548
01:18:06.520 --> 01:18:10.399
That rate being a above six percent are pretty minuscule.

1549
01:18:11.199 --> 01:18:13.439
So why would you refinance at six percent?

1550
01:18:13.520 --> 01:18:14.520
Because you're getting destroyed.

1551
01:18:14.640 --> 01:18:16.000
Credit card dead is eating you a lot.

1552
01:18:16.159 --> 01:18:17.000
That's the only reason.

1553
01:18:17.119 --> 01:18:20.520
And dave hand to all American lending. Our neighborhoods said

1554
01:18:20.560 --> 01:18:23.520
that that was going to happen six to nine months ago.

1555
01:18:23.560 --> 01:18:25.359
He said, you watch, we're going to get a big

1556
01:18:25.399 --> 01:18:29.119
reef reef I push here, What were to pay for

1557
01:18:29.199 --> 01:18:31.279
all these credit card desks that people are racking up?

1558
01:18:31.399 --> 01:18:33.520
Right? But that that now, I don't think has to

1559
01:18:33.520 --> 01:18:34.960
do with rates, like you said, has to do more

1560
01:18:35.039 --> 01:18:41.039
with just irresponsible spending. And that's that's a small percentage

1561
01:18:41.079 --> 01:18:43.720
of the actual American population. I mean, most do have

1562
01:18:43.760 --> 01:18:47.159
some type of savings. They can do some some type

1563
01:18:47.159 --> 01:18:49.079
of you know, weather the storm for a couple more

1564
01:18:49.159 --> 01:18:51.760
years and not have to take that drastic approach. Because again,

1565
01:18:52.600 --> 01:18:54.439
even seven percent with more dridge was a seven percent.

1566
01:18:54.600 --> 01:18:57.600
That's a lot lower than eighteen percent credit card. Yes,

1567
01:18:57.880 --> 01:19:00.560
so it going from seven to six doesn't change the

1568
01:19:00.600 --> 01:19:03.199
math that much. It's still such a better deal. Yeah,

1569
01:19:03.359 --> 01:19:05.960
I don't think, you know, it's really just like you said,

1570
01:19:06.000 --> 01:19:07.880
maybe that people will finally hit that mark.

1571
01:19:08.479 --> 01:19:10.520
It feels like it. It feels like it. And of

1572
01:19:10.520 --> 01:19:12.479
course rates went up to I think the high was

1573
01:19:12.560 --> 01:19:15.319
seven to seven two. Yeah, so when I was down

1574
01:19:15.319 --> 01:19:18.159
to six or boy, we've better financed before they go

1575
01:19:18.279 --> 01:19:22.079
back to seven, not really understanding obviously they're probably headed

1576
01:19:22.079 --> 01:19:22.680
to five and a half.

1577
01:19:22.720 --> 01:19:24.600
And then when people don't understand, some people be like

1578
01:19:24.600 --> 01:19:26.279
I saw the well v ales are like five to five.

1579
01:19:26.279 --> 01:19:28.079
But you know when we say mortagin ardes are at six,

1580
01:19:28.119 --> 01:19:30.920
that's like the base and you can get quoted anywhere

1581
01:19:30.920 --> 01:19:33.000
around that probably one percent, you know range.

1582
01:19:33.039 --> 01:19:36.920
There's a term called conforming loans, and a conforming loan

1583
01:19:37.000 --> 01:19:40.640
simply conforms with the Freddie mac fanny May standards. That's

1584
01:19:40.760 --> 01:19:43.680
called a conforming loan that gets you the best rate

1585
01:19:43.760 --> 01:19:47.039
twenty percent down on a refinanced eighty percent of the

1586
01:19:47.119 --> 01:19:50.520
value of the house. It's called a conforming loan, and

1587
01:19:51.079 --> 01:19:53.239
again you get the best rate, but.

1588
01:19:53.199 --> 01:19:55.199
That rate can be higher with the lower credit score,

1589
01:19:55.199 --> 01:19:57.199
and that rate could be lower with other provisions if

1590
01:19:57.199 --> 01:19:58.359
it's non conforming and things.

1591
01:19:58.439 --> 01:20:02.600
That's relatively new when I say relatively new within the

1592
01:20:02.680 --> 01:20:05.960
last ten years or so, that the credits actually impacted

1593
01:20:06.000 --> 01:20:09.439
your rate. They used to either got the own or

1594
01:20:09.439 --> 01:20:10.119
you didn't get the one.

1595
01:20:10.199 --> 01:20:12.720
Really, yeah, it was more based on income than it was.

1596
01:20:12.800 --> 01:20:15.000
Yeah, it was well, credit score too. But but the

1597
01:20:15.039 --> 01:20:16.960
credit score. If you have a credit score of six

1598
01:20:17.079 --> 01:20:18.880
versus the credit score of eight, it's all the same.

1599
01:20:18.920 --> 01:20:20.279
You're gonna get the same right, You're gonna get that,

1600
01:20:20.319 --> 01:20:22.720
you're gonna get the same rate. But but I've noticed

1601
01:20:22.800 --> 01:20:25.000
in a lot of different things in my life that

1602
01:20:25.119 --> 01:20:27.640
credit score is impacting.

1603
01:20:27.359 --> 01:20:29.199
The rate what I pay got you.

1604
01:20:29.199 --> 01:20:31.800
You're right, Todd, that difference between the seven to six

1605
01:20:31.840 --> 01:20:34.239
percent refight doesn't seem like it would make that huge

1606
01:20:34.239 --> 01:20:36.520
one if it's for that purpose, for that purpose, right,

1607
01:20:36.960 --> 01:20:39.399
And if it is for that purpose, I would say

1608
01:20:39.399 --> 01:20:42.079
that it's a lot more behavioral than right, exactly.

1609
01:20:43.079 --> 01:20:44.880
And you see that a lot of time we talked

1610
01:20:44.880 --> 01:20:47.479
about that with you know rates, they cut rates, they

1611
01:20:47.479 --> 01:20:50.680
were already cut they they cut it a month before

1612
01:20:50.760 --> 01:20:52.920
the Fed cut them. You just you didn't quite.

1613
01:20:52.760 --> 01:20:53.560
Understand that more.

1614
01:20:53.640 --> 01:20:55.239
And then the Fed cut or Jerne Power comes out

1615
01:20:55.239 --> 01:20:56.720
says a cut and they're like, okay, let's go.

1616
01:20:56.840 --> 01:20:58.760
Yeah, and you actually got a higher rate than you

1617
01:20:58.760 --> 01:20:59.880
could have got a month earlier.

1618
01:21:00.119 --> 01:21:00.319
Job.

1619
01:21:00.479 --> 01:21:02.880
But you know, it's just it's kind of hard for

1620
01:21:03.119 --> 01:21:05.760
people to say that, Hey, I actually know what I'm

1621
01:21:05.800 --> 01:21:08.159
gonna talk about this on the other side of the break, but.

1622
01:21:08.520 --> 01:21:09.199
A couple of minutes.

1623
01:21:09.560 --> 01:21:11.640
No, it's it's a little longer than a couple of minutes.

1624
01:21:11.640 --> 01:21:14.279
But yeah, I mean overall, I've been lucking a lot

1625
01:21:14.279 --> 01:21:16.760
on the Japanese end because ever since that's scare of

1626
01:21:16.880 --> 01:21:19.159
the liquidity being taken out of the system because of

1627
01:21:19.199 --> 01:21:21.760
the end. The end was down really, I mean, the

1628
01:21:22.239 --> 01:21:24.600
end was up big against the dollar on Friday. To me,

1629
01:21:24.720 --> 01:21:29.199
that's a concern potentially some liquidity being pulled out because

1630
01:21:29.199 --> 01:21:31.720
of that. Again carry trade, So I'd be a little

1631
01:21:32.079 --> 01:21:33.960
worrisome over the weekend into Monday.

1632
01:21:34.239 --> 01:21:38.119
I think. I think the bottom line for the market

1633
01:21:38.239 --> 01:21:42.800
right now is stay invested, but reduce your level of risk.

1634
01:21:43.359 --> 01:21:46.079
Don't commit new funds right now. If you're if you're

1635
01:21:46.119 --> 01:21:51.359
fifty percent invested and that's your your benchmark and you

1636
01:21:51.439 --> 01:21:55.640
have one hundred thous dollars cd mature, don't invest it

1637
01:21:55.680 --> 01:21:58.880
in the market right now. Just wait. You've got October,

1638
01:21:58.920 --> 01:22:01.920
You've got the election. There's gonna be some volatility, There's

1639
01:22:01.960 --> 01:22:04.319
going to be an opportunity. It's kind of like the

1640
01:22:04.319 --> 01:22:06.880
Costco stock. You know that after they report and you're

1641
01:22:06.920 --> 01:22:09.479
just going to drop it. Did you know pick your spot.

1642
01:22:09.760 --> 01:22:12.199
Yeah, same with the Vanguard money market. We told you

1643
01:22:12.239 --> 01:22:14.760
that that would eventually start dropping. All money markets will

1644
01:22:14.800 --> 01:22:17.000
start dropping, and that has to do with them rolling

1645
01:22:17.039 --> 01:22:21.479
their thirty day T bills over and over again. Right now,

1646
01:22:21.680 --> 01:22:26.600
the current yield is still five percent.

1647
01:22:26.880 --> 01:22:28.520
So yeah, I saw I think I saw it at

1648
01:22:28.520 --> 01:22:32.279
four ninety seven or something on Yeah, five percent. Essentially

1649
01:22:32.439 --> 01:22:35.399
that was five point three four months and months.

1650
01:22:35.079 --> 01:22:37.680
A sorry technically now, So every single day it's going

1651
01:22:37.760 --> 01:22:39.520
to change. That's the interesting things about this because every

1652
01:22:39.520 --> 01:22:41.199
single day they're picking up new bonds, right and every

1653
01:22:41.199 --> 01:22:42.680
single day they're picking up new bonds, it's at the

1654
01:22:42.720 --> 01:22:44.960
lower rate that they just cut. So it's actually at

1655
01:22:45.000 --> 01:22:47.479
four point eighty seven now, and that probably different on

1656
01:22:47.479 --> 01:22:48.359
Monday and then differently.

1657
01:22:48.399 --> 01:22:48.640
Yeah.

1658
01:22:48.680 --> 01:22:50.840
Yeah, so it will keep going down, but probably will

1659
01:22:51.399 --> 01:22:53.560
stabililize and around four point five until the Fed.

1660
01:22:53.800 --> 01:22:55.640
Yeah, it seems like it. Around four point five would

1661
01:22:55.680 --> 01:22:58.600
be it would be a good level to say. And Vidia,

1662
01:22:58.760 --> 01:23:02.560
one of everybody's favorites, probably the most significant stock he

1663
01:23:02.600 --> 01:23:06.119
could have owned in twenty twenty four, has been under pressure,

1664
01:23:06.960 --> 01:23:09.600
and there was up four percent on Tuesday. That pressure

1665
01:23:09.640 --> 01:23:14.159
has come from a well known seal program by their CEO.

1666
01:23:14.720 --> 01:23:17.359
It was a pre designed cell program and you can't

1667
01:23:17.359 --> 01:23:21.159
blame him. He has created trillions of dollars worth of value.

1668
01:23:21.439 --> 01:23:23.640
There's absolutely no reason why he shouldn't be able to

1669
01:23:23.640 --> 01:23:26.159
cash in on it to some extent. And it was

1670
01:23:26.159 --> 01:23:29.920
a pre arranged plan to sell stock. That's what was

1671
01:23:29.960 --> 01:23:32.199
the pressure on the stock is that they weren't sure

1672
01:23:32.239 --> 01:23:35.239
how much he was going to sell, and on Tuesday

1673
01:23:35.840 --> 01:23:39.800
gained four percent and more on Wednesday after a report

1674
01:23:39.880 --> 01:23:43.319
that he was done. He had sold seven hundred million

1675
01:23:43.439 --> 01:23:46.279
dollars worth of the stock, so I guess enough to

1676
01:23:46.319 --> 01:23:50.159
cover his more ex payment for this month. And good

1677
01:23:50.159 --> 01:23:52.279
for him, I mean good for him. He's hit it

1678
01:23:52.279 --> 01:23:55.439
out of the ballpark, created a tremendous amount of wealth

1679
01:23:55.920 --> 01:23:58.920
for a lot of people. And if you're not rewarded

1680
01:23:58.920 --> 01:24:03.000
for that, what's the point. So the our hats off

1681
01:24:03.039 --> 01:24:06.039
to Jensen Wang. I think it's wang is pronounced that

1682
01:24:06.239 --> 01:24:08.560
h u A n G. I think it's Wang wang

1683
01:24:08.600 --> 01:24:10.000
or Wong. I'm not sure. If you haven't on your

1684
01:24:10.079 --> 01:24:13.359
chances anyway, hats off to him. And so anyway, Nvidia

1685
01:24:13.359 --> 01:24:14.760
got a little bit of a bid. We'll be back

1686
01:24:14.800 --> 01:24:16.760
with the final segment, right up to this break. Thanks

1687
01:24:16.760 --> 01:24:19.319
again for joining us. Good morning, Welcome back to the

1688
01:24:19.319 --> 01:24:23.039
Money Matters Show. I'm Dave Sherwood. I'm here with Sebastian Borsinia.

1689
01:24:23.079 --> 01:24:25.640
I'm here with Todd good Jr. Dean and Dylan are

1690
01:24:25.640 --> 01:24:29.039
dealing little kachin this evening, and UH wished them well

1691
01:24:29.079 --> 01:24:30.960
they got. I think what three on one record over

1692
01:24:31.000 --> 01:24:34.000
there is that's good for this US on high badgers

1693
01:24:34.039 --> 01:24:36.279
and we're cheering for them.

1694
01:24:36.479 --> 01:24:39.159
Well, I wanted to talk about something because I saw

1695
01:24:39.199 --> 01:24:41.920
a really interesting video last night from Bloomberg talking about

1696
01:24:41.960 --> 01:24:45.920
quantum mechanics and it was explaining really what this next

1697
01:24:45.960 --> 01:24:47.720
revolution is going to be. And I don't think a

1698
01:24:47.760 --> 01:24:50.840
lot of people understand what quantum computing is or what

1699
01:24:50.880 --> 01:24:54.319
it refers to and what the potential could be. And

1700
01:24:54.359 --> 01:24:55.239
so I want to take a minute.

1701
01:24:55.239 --> 01:24:57.039
It's kind of really important.

1702
01:24:57.199 --> 01:24:59.439
So AI is what we the buzz where that we're

1703
01:24:59.439 --> 01:25:02.680
all hearing about. That's what drove this rally the last

1704
01:25:02.760 --> 01:25:06.319
year and a half. Quantum computing has that same capability

1705
01:25:06.319 --> 01:25:08.880
once it's mass produced, or even once it's able to

1706
01:25:08.920 --> 01:25:13.159
actually be here. No one has an actual, for sure

1707
01:25:13.239 --> 01:25:16.239
working quantum computer that can do the practical stuff that

1708
01:25:17.279 --> 01:25:19.359
they are saying can be done in the future. Their

1709
01:25:19.439 --> 01:25:22.720
timeframe for these completions are five to seven years, so

1710
01:25:22.800 --> 01:25:25.680
twenty twenty nine is pretty much where they think the

1711
01:25:25.720 --> 01:25:28.479
first quantic computer could really be. But then again, all

1712
01:25:28.520 --> 01:25:31.199
this is really classified. No one really knows how close

1713
01:25:31.239 --> 01:25:33.079
they are or how far they are. The companies that

1714
01:25:33.079 --> 01:25:38.119
are really at the helm is IBM, Google, and then countries,

1715
01:25:38.319 --> 01:25:42.800
so United States, China, and Britain. But China is spending

1716
01:25:43.000 --> 01:25:45.479
triple the amount of any other country in the world,

1717
01:25:46.479 --> 01:25:49.039
or the second closest country in the world on quantum computing,

1718
01:25:49.079 --> 01:25:52.680
so they're really going heavy into this. What is quantum computing, Well,

1719
01:25:52.720 --> 01:25:56.319
it's a completely different way of computation. So a computer.

1720
01:25:56.439 --> 01:25:59.159
The way a computer works is ones and zeros. Think

1721
01:25:59.199 --> 01:26:02.319
about it as on and off switches. A computer just

1722
01:26:02.359 --> 01:26:04.000
goes on and off a whole bunch of times to

1723
01:26:04.039 --> 01:26:06.199
figure out what to do. So think about a maze.

1724
01:26:07.119 --> 01:26:09.720
A computer is gonna send all the different ways that

1725
01:26:09.800 --> 01:26:12.119
can go through a maze until it finds the right

1726
01:26:12.159 --> 01:26:14.239
way to get through the maze. That's how a computer

1727
01:26:14.319 --> 01:26:16.920
reasons it doesn't actually know what the right way is.

1728
01:26:16.920 --> 01:26:18.560
That the first isn't just look at it. It has to

1729
01:26:18.600 --> 01:26:21.199
go through all the possible possibilities and then after a

1730
01:26:21.239 --> 01:26:22.600
while it says, oh, this is the one that gets

1731
01:26:22.640 --> 01:26:24.479
me through the maze. So it takes a little bit

1732
01:26:24.479 --> 01:26:26.239
of time, right, especially if you have a really, really big,

1733
01:26:26.239 --> 01:26:29.800
complicated maze, the computer could take years to figure out

1734
01:26:29.880 --> 01:26:33.840
what the right answer is. A quantum computer runs on cubits,

1735
01:26:33.840 --> 01:26:37.680
so instead of these off switches, these on and off switches,

1736
01:26:37.760 --> 01:26:41.520
these ones and zeros, a cubit is both on and

1737
01:26:41.560 --> 01:26:46.359
off at the same time. It's a paradox. Don't try

1738
01:26:46.359 --> 01:26:47.880
to think about it too hard. It won't work in

1739
01:26:47.920 --> 01:26:50.800
your head. It doesn't make sense right. And this only

1740
01:26:50.880 --> 01:26:54.279
works at the quantum level. In our everyday physics, it

1741
01:26:54.319 --> 01:26:58.560
doesn't work right. Things take position, But in quantum world

1742
01:26:58.560 --> 01:27:01.680
you get something called super Poissi, which means again you

1743
01:27:01.800 --> 01:27:04.960
have a one and a zero. You're on and you're

1744
01:27:04.960 --> 01:27:08.239
off at the same time. It's you're spinning left and

1745
01:27:08.279 --> 01:27:10.920
you're spinning right at the same time. It doesn't quite

1746
01:27:10.960 --> 01:27:14.119
make sense to us because we have figure out right.

1747
01:27:14.359 --> 01:27:16.840
And when you see a picture of a quantum computer,

1748
01:27:16.920 --> 01:27:19.279
you see these big gold things with all these wires

1749
01:27:19.279 --> 01:27:21.079
coming out of it, and these things that looks like

1750
01:27:21.079 --> 01:27:23.960
a big tower, that's not the quantum computer. In fact,

1751
01:27:24.000 --> 01:27:26.840
the quantum computer's just this little tiny disc at the

1752
01:27:26.960 --> 01:27:29.560
very bottom of that tower because the tower itself, what

1753
01:27:29.640 --> 01:27:32.560
it's doing is cooling down the cubits in this disc

1754
01:27:33.359 --> 01:27:36.439
close to zero temperature as you can get just above it,

1755
01:27:36.560 --> 01:27:40.239
because it needs to basically be a vacuum, just like space.

1756
01:27:40.760 --> 01:27:43.279
So space, the reason it's so cold is it's a vacuum.

1757
01:27:43.279 --> 01:27:46.960
There's an absence of energy, and so that's what they

1758
01:27:47.039 --> 01:27:50.439
need because these cubits can easily be influenced by just

1759
01:27:50.479 --> 01:27:53.119
a slight bit of energy. So they have to cool

1760
01:27:53.119 --> 01:27:56.159
it and create this almost vacuum like scenario for the

1761
01:27:56.199 --> 01:27:59.279
cubits to be able to do these computations. And what

1762
01:27:59.319 --> 01:28:02.760
the capa ability is for these cubits is essentially going

1763
01:28:02.800 --> 01:28:05.199
back to that maze analogy. I can then instead of

1764
01:28:05.239 --> 01:28:08.920
going trying all the different possibilities one by one, I

1765
01:28:08.920 --> 01:28:12.520
can try all possibilities all at once, and I can

1766
01:28:12.560 --> 01:28:15.039
find a maze that would take the best supercomputer we

1767
01:28:15.119 --> 01:28:18.760
currently have it would take supercomputer hundreds of years to do.

1768
01:28:19.079 --> 01:28:21.279
A quantum computer could do it in the mere minutes

1769
01:28:21.920 --> 01:28:25.880
because of this superpositioned computation ability.

1770
01:28:25.479 --> 01:28:27.279
And what are some examples of what that we'll do

1771
01:28:27.319 --> 01:28:28.039
in our ever, so.

1772
01:28:28.279 --> 01:28:31.560
A few examples of saying this to say, hey, a vaccine,

1773
01:28:31.600 --> 01:28:34.439
what do we do currently? We use supercomputers. We have

1774
01:28:34.520 --> 01:28:36.840
to say how many times does this vaccine work for

1775
01:28:36.920 --> 01:28:41.119
this particular geno makeup of a human. Well, they use

1776
01:28:41.159 --> 01:28:44.199
supercomputers and it takes a very very long time. For example,

1777
01:28:44.199 --> 01:28:47.000
when they came up with the vaccines for COVID, they

1778
01:28:47.079 --> 01:28:49.479
ran computer tests. That's how they were able to come

1779
01:28:49.560 --> 01:28:52.479
up with the vaccine faster in the so fast than

1780
01:28:52.600 --> 01:28:55.399
any other time in history, was because they have supercomputers

1781
01:28:55.439 --> 01:28:57.680
now right that can run all the different possibilities of

1782
01:28:57.720 --> 01:29:00.560
the sequences that can go into the vaccine. They found

1783
01:29:00.560 --> 01:29:03.640
the right sequence and that's the RNA sequence. They didn't

1784
01:29:03.680 --> 01:29:05.800
know what sequence would kill COVID, and they had to

1785
01:29:05.880 --> 01:29:08.359
run all the different simulations and finally found one that

1786
01:29:08.439 --> 01:29:12.920
was quote unquote effective. That's a different story. So the

1787
01:29:13.039 --> 01:29:16.479
quantum computer is saying, hey, we can run a billion

1788
01:29:16.520 --> 01:29:21.119
different vaccine trials all at once at the molecular level

1789
01:29:21.159 --> 01:29:23.680
and understand so much more about why or why it

1790
01:29:23.720 --> 01:29:26.239
doesn't work and if it actually works or not, and

1791
01:29:26.279 --> 01:29:29.279
it can find things like the cure of cancer so

1792
01:29:29.439 --> 01:29:32.920
much quicker than anything else we could. All medicine is

1793
01:29:32.920 --> 01:29:35.800
going to get revolutionized, and then on top of that,

1794
01:29:35.880 --> 01:29:38.359
encryption is going to be revolutionized as well, because a

1795
01:29:38.359 --> 01:29:41.119
lot of people are afraid that a quantum computer can

1796
01:29:41.119 --> 01:29:44.000
get into a regular computer's encryption, which it easily could,

1797
01:29:44.079 --> 01:29:47.119
because how a regular encryption works in our day to

1798
01:29:47.199 --> 01:29:49.880
day world is you have two products, you have two

1799
01:29:49.960 --> 01:29:53.399
numbers multiplying each other to get one product, and a

1800
01:29:53.439 --> 01:29:57.319
computer can't find those two prime numbers of the said products.

1801
01:29:57.359 --> 01:29:59.960
So basically all of our messages and all of our

1802
01:30:00.199 --> 01:30:02.800
accounts are locked up with like a twenty six digit

1803
01:30:02.880 --> 01:30:06.479
code and they're all numbers. And then in order to

1804
01:30:06.640 --> 01:30:08.960
unlock that code, you put your password in and then

1805
01:30:09.279 --> 01:30:12.680
the password gives you the two numbers that equal that number,

1806
01:30:12.800 --> 01:30:14.680
and that's how you get into your account, and that's

1807
01:30:14.680 --> 01:30:16.199
how no one else can get into your account because

1808
01:30:16.279 --> 01:30:18.039
no one knows that two numbers. The only way you

1809
01:30:18.039 --> 01:30:20.520
get those two numbers is if you put in your password. Well, hacker,

1810
01:30:20.520 --> 01:30:23.079
what they do is they run all the simulations that

1811
01:30:23.079 --> 01:30:25.880
could be those two numbers, but for really long numbers,

1812
01:30:25.880 --> 01:30:28.479
it takes really long time quantum computing. It can do

1813
01:30:28.520 --> 01:30:29.319
it in mere minutes.

1814
01:30:29.399 --> 01:30:31.720
And the reason we spent half of this segment on

1815
01:30:32.199 --> 01:30:35.319
quantum computing is it is super super important.

1816
01:30:35.720 --> 01:30:36.880
It will change everything.

1817
01:30:36.920 --> 01:30:40.880
It's going to change everything we have. Countries, whatever country,

1818
01:30:40.920 --> 01:30:44.920
whatever company can break this code is going to have

1819
01:30:44.960 --> 01:30:47.159
a dramatic advantage.

1820
01:30:47.399 --> 01:30:51.920
China's setting a quantum computing network where they can they

1821
01:30:52.000 --> 01:30:54.399
can send data that is unhackable.

1822
01:30:55.159 --> 01:30:56.199
That's going to change the world.

1823
01:30:56.640 --> 01:31:00.279
Unhackable encryption. You don't worry about hackers anymore. You can

1824
01:31:00.359 --> 01:31:02.479
you can find all the medicine that you would ever want.

1825
01:31:02.800 --> 01:31:04.760
I mean, think about the trading systems you can create

1826
01:31:04.800 --> 01:31:07.640
with quantum of cants. I mean, it's it's it's purely

1827
01:31:07.760 --> 01:31:11.319
Also this our understanding of the universe will change. We

1828
01:31:11.319 --> 01:31:14.800
will actually understand things like wormholes and black holes and

1829
01:31:14.840 --> 01:31:16.800
things that we can't understand with classic physics.

1830
01:31:17.039 --> 01:31:19.920
It's safe to say that if a different country other

1831
01:31:20.000 --> 01:31:23.600
than the US finds that technology first, or if.

1832
01:31:23.520 --> 01:31:26.439
They're a bad if they're a bad actor, it could

1833
01:31:26.439 --> 01:31:27.720
be potentially very harmful.

1834
01:31:27.840 --> 01:31:30.479
Yeah, it's something we do not want to see.

1835
01:31:30.520 --> 01:31:32.920
We don't want to see trying to get there first, talk.

1836
01:31:32.720 --> 01:31:33.399
About a couple others.

1837
01:31:33.399 --> 01:31:34.880
I don't want to see anybody other than the US

1838
01:31:34.880 --> 01:31:35.359
get their first.

1839
01:31:35.359 --> 01:31:37.239
Well, well, China is the only one that probably has

1840
01:31:37.239 --> 01:31:38.800
the ability to get there first.

1841
01:31:39.199 --> 01:31:41.479
So let's have a Let's have a Starbucks while we're

1842
01:31:41.479 --> 01:31:44.479
thinking about it. Right, Starbucks has been on fire since

1843
01:31:44.520 --> 01:31:48.439
Brian Nickel became CEO. He actually started working now on

1844
01:31:48.880 --> 01:31:53.000
nine to nine. You know, the stock went up twenty

1845
01:31:53.000 --> 01:31:55.600
five percent before he ever showed up on the at

1846
01:31:55.600 --> 01:31:57.399
the company. And I was gonna say ever showed up

1847
01:31:57.439 --> 01:31:59.840
on on the campus, but he had not a campus.

1848
01:32:00.439 --> 01:32:04.159
He's working from home. He lives in Manhattan Beach, right,

1849
01:32:04.159 --> 01:32:07.880
and the Seattle's Starbucks is in Seattle. And he said,

1850
01:32:08.039 --> 01:32:09.920
I'll take the job, but I'm going to work from home.

1851
01:32:09.960 --> 01:32:13.399
They go, okay again. One of the more popular CEOs

1852
01:32:14.119 --> 01:32:19.479
in the country, the former head of CHIPOTLEI Jeffrey's downgrade

1853
01:32:19.520 --> 01:32:23.479
is Starbucks on They're saying the twenty five percent spike

1854
01:32:23.600 --> 01:32:27.439
is too much, too soon, And since Brian Nichols really

1855
01:32:27.439 --> 01:32:31.159
didn't even start working until September ninth and is working

1856
01:32:31.159 --> 01:32:33.720
from home, I don't think it takes a genius to

1857
01:32:33.720 --> 01:32:35.800
figure it's going to take time to turn the ship around,

1858
01:32:36.600 --> 01:32:39.399
but on Thursday the stock was raised to a buy

1859
01:32:39.399 --> 01:32:44.840
at Burnstein. Regardless, the new CEO is a really good

1860
01:32:45.159 --> 01:32:48.039
find for the company, a really good hire. But it

1861
01:32:48.199 --> 01:32:50.319
is going to take time. How much he can do

1862
01:32:50.359 --> 01:32:53.600
and how quickly he can do it is we're going

1863
01:32:53.680 --> 01:32:55.600
to have to see. But the stock has had a

1864
01:32:55.640 --> 01:33:00.319
really strong move pushing a hundred. Most of the price

1865
01:33:00.399 --> 01:33:02.479
targets are in the one to five to one ten area,

1866
01:33:03.000 --> 01:33:05.239
so you could actually make the case of the stock's

1867
01:33:05.439 --> 01:33:09.760
pretty much done because that news has all been digested.

1868
01:33:09.960 --> 01:33:11.600
I was expecting to see a little bit more of

1869
01:33:11.600 --> 01:33:13.640
a pop this week from the China News just because

1870
01:33:13.680 --> 01:33:17.239
of their exposure there. Yeah maybe I mentioned, We mentioned

1871
01:33:17.239 --> 01:33:18.800
this on the radio show last week, but they are

1872
01:33:18.880 --> 01:33:21.159
changing their franchising there in China, so.

1873
01:33:21.960 --> 01:33:25.720
Well, they're trying to right right. So anyway, they've got

1874
01:33:25.760 --> 01:33:27.880
a lot of work to do, and Brian Nickel has

1875
01:33:27.880 --> 01:33:29.119
no international experience.

1876
01:33:29.279 --> 01:33:31.119
One hundred is always a big round number. It's gonna

1877
01:33:31.119 --> 01:33:32.960
be hard to get above it. I think can it

1878
01:33:32.960 --> 01:33:35.720
could run because again, once you get above a big number,

1879
01:33:36.000 --> 01:33:37.359
you can get some momentum behind it.

1880
01:33:37.439 --> 01:33:39.359
Yeah. Well, again, most of the price targets are the

1881
01:33:39.359 --> 01:33:41.079
one of five to one ten area. I just think

1882
01:33:41.119 --> 01:33:44.279
that's the news that he is. The CEO is wonderful

1883
01:33:44.319 --> 01:33:46.159
he has I think he'll do a great job, but

1884
01:33:46.159 --> 01:33:48.119
it's going to take a lot of time. Home Depot

1885
01:33:48.239 --> 01:33:50.960
new three year high on Friday on the belief that

1886
01:33:51.079 --> 01:33:53.640
lower interest rates are going to ignite a housing rally

1887
01:33:54.680 --> 01:33:57.680
boots on the ground, which is me, I'm not seeing that.

1888
01:33:58.239 --> 01:34:01.159
I'm not seeing a housing rally. What I'm seeing is

1889
01:34:01.199 --> 01:34:04.159
a buyer's market. I'm seeing houses that have been on

1890
01:34:04.199 --> 01:34:08.840
the market for more than a few months. I'm seeing

1891
01:34:08.920 --> 01:34:15.800
price drops pretty regularly. I don't see this big housing

1892
01:34:15.960 --> 01:34:20.800
boom that's coming from these lower interest rates happening into

1893
01:34:20.920 --> 01:34:21.680
sin Arizona.

1894
01:34:22.680 --> 01:34:26.159
But again, I mean, does house pricing can go down?

1895
01:34:26.640 --> 01:34:27.760
What is that? Hows that hurt?

1896
01:34:28.439 --> 01:34:31.359
It might be because the price went up so far

1897
01:34:31.479 --> 01:34:33.880
so fast, Todd, I just don't see a lot of

1898
01:34:34.760 --> 01:34:40.520
buyers clamoring to get houses into San Arizona. There were

1899
01:34:41.079 --> 01:34:45.359
six months ago, a year ago, two years ago, bidding

1900
01:34:45.399 --> 01:34:48.119
wars on every single property, it seems like, and I've

1901
01:34:48.159 --> 01:34:51.239
now seen that kind of quiet down regardless of the

1902
01:34:51.239 --> 01:34:53.840
lower interest I'm just I guess what I'm thinking is

1903
01:34:53.840 --> 01:34:57.319
is is the Are the lower interest rates really going

1904
01:34:57.359 --> 01:35:01.279
to ignite some type of real estate boom or have

1905
01:35:01.399 --> 01:35:03.600
we really kind of gone over that hump and now

1906
01:35:03.600 --> 01:35:07.279
we're into the digestion process where prices kind of come

1907
01:35:07.359 --> 01:35:10.680
down and get stable and get into an area where

1908
01:35:11.399 --> 01:35:14.199
maybe it's a little bit more affordable. KB Holmes that

1909
01:35:14.319 --> 01:35:18.079
stocks nearly doubled over the last twelve months, again on

1910
01:35:18.159 --> 01:35:21.760
a shortage of existing homes, which seems to be ending.

1911
01:35:22.159 --> 01:35:25.640
I'm seeing existing homes for sale all over town six

1912
01:35:25.680 --> 01:35:29.399
percent lower on Wednesday after the quarterly report was slightly

1913
01:35:30.039 --> 01:35:32.520
blow what analysts were expecting. Nothing to watch, but anyway,

1914
01:35:32.600 --> 01:35:36.600
there's a lot of bests being made in the market

1915
01:35:37.000 --> 01:35:39.560
on lower interest rates and what that's going to do.

1916
01:35:39.680 --> 01:35:41.560
So we'll have to see how that plays out again.

1917
01:35:41.680 --> 01:35:45.000
Right now, don't be a hero, be cautious, wait for

1918
01:35:45.079 --> 01:35:48.399
your position, wait for your time, wait for your enterry point.

1919
01:35:49.199 --> 01:35:52.119
We all want to be happy, and we all want

1920
01:35:52.159 --> 01:35:54.680
to be healthy. Really important because if we're not healthy,

1921
01:35:54.720 --> 01:35:57.840
we're probably not happy. And the Greenberg financial would we

1922
01:35:57.920 --> 01:36:01.359
really like to be is? Oh you next week