306: Covid-19, avoiding people, and family

I chose to stay at my mom's outside the city

Why?

• Read stories, saw difference between places with SARS and MERS experience versus not
• NY and US woefully underprepared govt, corps. People didn't get it
• Not worried about my health, but system
• Advice is distance

What could happen

• Closer to Italy than China or Iran
• Talked to friend in medicine
• Talked to friend who had been following most
• US lacks central authority

Why not?

• Mom is 76. Stepfather close. I could unknowingly bring disease
• Solution isn't possible for everyone. On the other hand, everyone who can slow spread should

At first felt privileged

• But hard to find precisely
• Having mom?
• Having mom still alive?
• Her living outside the city? Many other situations doesn't help.
• That I can afford to go somewhere else?
• Normally couldn't but situation demands it. Like many, I can't afford. My largest source of income last year was corporate speaking, which is all disappearing
• In any case, able to relocate possibly for months results from work at pruning unnecessary, which anyone can do
• I don't have kids, which enables a lot, but a major factor in not having kids is not being able to afford them.
• Feels like the opposite of privilege, not being able to afford something
• Still, people have told me I'm privileged for it.
• Candidly, it feels that way, but I can't put my finger on it. My family isn't loaded. If middle class is privileged, I guess, but then everyone outside poverty is privileged.

Back to Covid

• What made case for me was seeing scientific models that what we're seeing with minimal testing implies far more we haven't tested, which implies far more who can transmit but haven't shown symptoms, which could be you or me
• Biggest problem would be if we don't learn from it.
• Biggest lesson so far: can't not fly -> can not fly
• Because however big Covid, scientists have predicted pandemics based on overpopulation and over travel for generations
• They've also predicted a lot more to come.
• Best course beyond this pandemic is to implement globally what Thai people did: lowering birth rate globally to around 1, 1.5 children per woman.
• In the immediate, follow expert advice, of course

The two articles that influenced me most:

• Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
• How Will Coronavirus Spread? Liz Specht Breaks Down Systemic Risk – by the Math – As 16 Million Are Quarantined in Italy

The chart I described, from the first link above:

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