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My Conference Tournament Results:
1H Unders: 21-19-1, 52.5%, up 0.0911 units
Sides: 20-20-1, 50.0%, down 1.818 units
WHAT IF Results: (Not betting, just tracking for future reference)
Every Underdog ATS: 22-18-1, 55.0%, up 2.0002 units
Every Underdog ML: 15-26, 36.6%, up 4.88 units
Tonight's 1H Unders:
Radford/High Point Under 70.5
Missouri State/Indiana State Under 70.5
William & Mary/North Carolina A&T Under 65.5
Longwood/Winthrop Under 68.5
Belmont/Northern Iowa Under 71.5
Hampton/Elon Under 70.5
The Citadel/Mercer Under 65.5
Charleston Southern/UNC Asheville Under 67.5
Evansville/Drake Under 68.5
VMI/East Tennessee State Under 70.5
Western Illinois/Little Rock Under 64.5
Presbyterian/Gardner-Webb Under 67.5
South Dakota/Oral Roberts Under 73
Pepperdine/San Diego Under 72.5
Illinois Chicago/Bradley Under 63.5
Morehead State/UT Martin Under 69.5
Loyola Marymount/Portland Under 67.5
ATS Picks:
G1. Northern Iowa -1 vs. Belmont (from the podcast)
This will be a dandy under the Arch. Belmont continues to pass the eye test, they've won 8 of 9 games, last 7 wins have all been by double digits including the 25-point win over Valpo yesterday that was 42 at one point before they called off the dogs. Bruins rank 5th in the Valley on offense, 4th on defense. Back in November, Belmont won @ UNI by 20. In January, Northern Iowa won @ Belmont by 11. UNI has won 5 of 6 including wins over Drake & Bradley during that stretch. Panthers rank a spot below Belmont on both ends of the floor ranking 6th on offense, 5th on defense. I said last week that I would bet UNI at Arch Madness, I'm not going to waver this time. Ben Jacobson will have the Panthers ready.
G2. San Diego +1.5 vs. Pepperdine (from the podcast)
Pepperdine Head Coach Lorenzo Romar was informed his week that he was out after the conference tournament, his team decided that wasn't going to be on Thursday. Pepperdine led Pacific 56-9 at halftime yesterday. The Waves ultimately won 102-43 shooting 60% for the floor. I expect a major regression tonight. Pepperdine is now 13-19 on the season, split with San Diego during the season winning by 6 on the road, losing by 2 at home. San Diego and HC Steve Lavin enter this one at 17-14, they beat Pacific in the regular season finale by only 12. That Pacific might help drive this line to 2 or more by tip but I think yesterday was the last stand for Coach Romar at Pepperdine, coaching career at Pepperdine ends tonight.
G3. Oral Roberts -2.5 vs. South Dakota (from the podcast)
Now or never for Oral Roberts. Most disappointing team this year in the Summit, preseason #2, playing in the 8/9 game. Golden Eagles have lost 7 straight games. In January, Oral Roberts beat South Dakota by 18. Couple weeks ago, South Dakota beat Oral Roberts by 1 at home. South Dakota has the better offensive efficiency numbers, Oral the better defensive numbers. Game is in Sioux Falls, South Dakota so the Coyotes will have more fans but the South Dakota State Jackrabbit fans that will occupy most of the seats will be pulling for Oral Roberts so toss any crowd edge out the door. Issac McBride will still be the best player on the floor tonight, give me ORU one more time.
G4. Missouri State +11.5 vs. Indiana State
First game of the day at Arch Madness, all the "other fans" tend to become fans of the underdog especially against the top seed. Missouri State looked good yesterday on this floor, they lost by only 2 in February against Indiana State. Sycamores are #1 on both ends of the floor, excellent team. 11.5 is a bit much in St. Louis. I'll grab the points.
G5. Winthrop +1.5 vs. Longwood
Teams split during the season, Winthrop won by 8 in OT at home, Longwood won by 10 at home. Winthrop lost the final 2 games of the year against top tier teams, High Point by 4 in OT, Gardner Webb by 1. Rank #2 in D, #4 on O. Longwood ranks #7 on O, #6 on D. They beat both High Point & UNC Asheville in the final couple weeks. Evenly matched game, I'll back the efficiency metrics and take Winthrop.
G6. UT Martin +7.5 vs. Morehead State
Both teams finished 14-4 in the OVC, Morehead State coasted to the easy 15-point win over SIUE last night. Teams split during the year, Morehead State won by 18 at home, UT Martin won by 6 at home. Morehead State ranks #1 on both ends of the floor, UT Martin has won 7 straight games. UT Martin will push the pace, could be a factor since Morehead State played last night. I'll grab the points.
G7. Western Illinois +6 vs. Little Rock
9 straight wins for Little Rock, won by 3 @ Western Illinois in February in the only meeting. #2 on both ends of the floor. Western Illinois won a battle last night by 2 over Tennessee State, Western went 13-5 in conference, solid club. 3 of the 5 losses in conference this year for the Leathernecks were by 3 or fewer points. #3 on D, #4 on O. I can't pass up 6 points. I'll take the dog.
G8. Mercer -3.5 vs. The Citadel
The Citadel went 3-15 in conference, only 3 of those losses were by a possession. Teams split during the season; I can't find enough on the Bulldogs resume to back, so I'll lay the points.
G9. Illinois Chicago +12.5 vs. Bradley
These are college kids; it was only the FIRST game so I'm not going to overact to tired legs after a 2OT win last night over Southern Illinois. Bradley swept during the regular season winning by 18 on the road, 12 at home. Braves are solid on both ends but this is another game that I think is in doubt at the under 8 timeout, Bradley pulls away late but won't cover 12.5.
G10. Presbyterian +6.5 vs. Gardner-Webb
Teams split during the year at winning at home. Gardner-Webb won the last 3 over UNC Asheville by 1, Longwood by 3, and Winthrop by 1. Luck used up? Blue Hose have some competitive losses and good wins over Gardner-Webb and Winthrop in February. I'll grab the points.
G11. Evansville +13.5 vs. Drake
Big fan of the Bulldogs, not a fan of the number. Drake won by 49 in the first meeting, 3 in the 2nd. I've never had success laying double digits with Drake, I'll grab the points. Purple Aces will put up a fight.
G12. Elon -3.5 vs. Hampton
Elon won the first meeting by 6 on the road. Phoenix beat Delaware & UNC Wilmington in February showing some signs of progress. Hampton started 0-13 in the CAA, won 3 of 5 to end the year. Body of work edge to Elon, I'll lay the 3.5.
G13. North Carolina A&T +5 vs. William & Mary
A&T won the only meeting of the year by 7. NCA&T lost 9 straight to end the year. Tribe of William & Mary finished 4-14 in the CAA, ended a 9-game losing streak in the season finale beating Hampton. Tribe rank 13th on O, 10th on D. Not exactly numbers that get me excited to lay 5 so I'll grab the 5 instead.
G14. Loyola Marymount -5.5 vs. Portland
Last game of the year, Portland beat Loyola by 10 at home. Pilots upset Santa Clara in the OT the game before that. Those were the only non-Pacific/Pepperdine wins of the conference season for Portland. Loyola Marymount won the first meeting by 27, Lions had the same 5-11 record but they were much more competitive in the losses including 4- & 5-point losses to St. Mary's. Mid-pack team in the efficiency metrics, I'll lay the 5.5.
G15. High Point -10.5 vs. Radford
High Point won the regular season meetings by 14 & 25. Panthers come in off a loss to Longwood by 2. Good wakeup call before tournament play. I'll lay the points.
G16. Charleston Southern +12.5 vs. UNC Asheville
Bulldogs won the last meeting by 31, won the first meeting by 6. I've backed UNC Asheville more than most this season. 20 wins on the year, 12 conference wins. Only 3 of those 12 conference wins were by double digits. They never seemed to run away with anything for me. #1 on D, #2 on O. They might win by 30 but I can't lay 12.5. Give me the points.
G17. VMI +17 vs. East Tennessee State
ETSU beat VMI by 1 on the road, 13 at home. Line was 18.5 in that last meeting; this is on a neutral floor in tournament play. VMI went 1-17 in conference, terrible basketball team but this line is still a couple buckets high.
