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My Conference Tournament Results:
1H Unders: 61-43-2, 58.6%, up 10.0456 units
Sides: 52-53-1, 49.5%, down 5.7268 units
WHAT IF Results: (Not betting, just tracking for future reference)
Every Underdog ATS: 51-54-1, 48.6%, down 7.6359 units
Every Underdog ML: 34-72, 32.0%, up 1.93 units
Today's 1H Unders:
Towson/Charleston Under 65
New Orleans/Lamar Under 74
Cleveland State/Oakland Under 68.5
Arkansas State/James Madison Under 72.5
East Tennessee State/Samford Under 70.5
St. Thomas/South Dakota State Under 65.5
Montana State/Weber State Under 67.5
Stony Brook/Hofstra Under 66
Texas A&M-Commerce/Nicholls Under 64
Santa Clara/Saint Mary's Under 63.5
Milwaukee/Northern Kentucky Under 71
Denver/Omaha Under 73
Portland State/Montana Under 68.5
San Francisco/Gonzaga Under 70.5
ATS Picks:
G1. St. Thomas +1.5 vs. South Dakota State (from the podcast)
I absolutely love South Dakota State tonight, I bet this team all year, conference champ, #2 on offense, #3 on defense, beat Towson on a neutral floor, won @ Wichita State, have won 6 straight games, have the extra days rest, will have 90% of the fans tonight in Sioux Falls. Only one problem......they beat St. Thomas on the road by 1, they beat St. Thomas by 5 at home. As you've heard by now, it's tough be beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.
G2. Stony Brook +5.5 vs. Hofstra (from the podcast)
Hofstra pounded Delaware yesterday by 15, Stony Brook won a game to remember upsetting Drexel in 2OT 91-88. This will be the 3rd game in 3 days for Stony Brook, legs might be a concern after the 2OT win. Hofstra won the first meeting by 6 on the road, won the second meeting by 1 at home. I'm going to keep saying it, it's tough be beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.
G3. Denver +1.5 vs. Omaha (from the podcast)
6 & 7 seeds meet in the semis. Both teams used up some luck in the quarterfinals? Last night, Omaha trailed North Dakota by 10 with 4 to go, 9 with under 3 to go and scored in the closing seconds to win it. Saturday night, Denver rallied from 12 down to beat UMKC shooting only 39.3% from the field. Unfortunately, the 2 teams split during the year, both winning on the road. Pioneers won at Omaha by 15, Mavericks won at Denver by 19. Denver is a bit better on offense, Omaha a bit better on defense. Leading scorer in the league was Tommy Bruner, he averaged 24.3 PPG this year, he plays for Denver. Never a bad thing to have the best player on the floor. Give me the Pioneers.
G4. Weber State -6 vs. Montana State (from the podcast)
Welcome to the conference of chaos! #10 Sacramento State upset #1 Eastern Washington; #8 Idaho State upset #2 Northern Colorado last night. AND now, I'm backing a favorite. These two played in the last game of the regular season, Montana State won that game 76-64. Weber State won the first meeting by 22. Bobcats finished 9-9 in the Big Sky, 2nd ranked D. Wildcats finished 11-7, have the #1 D, #4 on offense. Weber State has a high upside, they beat #22 Saint Mary's and #89 Yale in the non-conference. Add in the fact that Dillon Jones has named conference MVP, they also have the best player on the floor. That's enough for me to roll the dice and lay points in the crazy Big Sky.
G5. Charleston -4 vs. Towson (from the podcast)
Pat Kelsey can flat out coach. Charleston crushed Monmouth on Sunday by 24. Cougars of Charleston have won 10 straight, 5 straight by double digits including a 16-point win @ Towson. Charleston will push the pace, #1 in the CAA, #1 offense in the CAA, 15-3 in conference. But Towson is always a challenge, they upset Charleston by 4 in the first meeting of the year. This will be the 3rd game in 3 days for Towson, beat William & Mary by 11 on Saturday, UNC Wilmington by 10 on Sunday. Tigers they have the #1 D in CAA. I'm also a little concerned with the extra motivation of losing to Charleston last year in the semis. But when it comes to talent, Charleston had a 1st team, 2nd team, and 3rd team All-Conference selection. Towson had a 3rd team All-Conference selection. Charleston also had the coach of the year in Pat Kelsey, I'll lay the 4 hoping the 3 games in 3 days catches up to the Tigers.
G6. Milwaukee +1 vs. Northern Kentucky (from the podcast)
I don't like any of the other numbers on the board so I'm forcing myself to bet this game and I'm flopping like a fish. Teams split during the season, Northern Kentucky won the first meeting by 18, Milwaukee won the 2nd meeting by 1. Darrin Horn has done a tremendous job at Northern Kentucky, won the conference tournament last year as a 4 seed, outlasted Wright State 99-97 in OT in the quarterfinals, and the Norse have the #2 D in the Horizon. Milwaukee is on the rise, winning 7 of 8, mid-pack on both ends of floor. Numbers favor Northern Kentucky, they have the defensive player of the year, but BJ Freeman has taken his game to another level. He scored 38 against Purdue Fort Wayne and now 30 & 32 in the first 2 rounds of the tournament. I'm not going to bet against him tonight, give me the Panthers.
G7. San Francisco +9 vs. Gonzaga
Only one way for the Dons to make the big dance, win the conference tournament. This is a dangerous team, beat Minnesota by 18, lost by only 5 @ Boise State, lost to Utah State by 1, lost at Gonzaga by 5, lost at St. Mary's by 4. Gonzaga did crush them by 18 a couple weeks back but that will likely just add to the effort tonight. Dons are the 3rd best team on both ends of the floor, they can create some challenges. Zags are playing great basketball, but I still think this one stays within foul game range. I'll grab the points.
G8. James Madison -6.5 vs. Arkansas State
James Madison won the lone meeting of the season by 4 @ Arkansas State. Red Wolves are hot, winning 8 of 9, fresh off the buzzer beating win over Appalachian State last night. Once 8-13, now 1 win away from the big dance. James Madison has been the class of the conference all season at 30-3. I was hoping for Appalachian State in this spot since they beat JMU twice during the season, but I'll just settle for laying the points tonight with the team that has the longest active winning streak in college basketball.
G9. Santa Clara +9.5 vs. Saint Mary's
Gaels swept the season series winning by 24 @ Santa Clara, winnings by 5 at home. Gaels lost the final game of the season to Gonzaga; hopefully they get caught looking ahead tonight. Santa Clara has wins over Oregon, Washington State, San Francisco, and Gonzaga. Solid club ranking 4th on both ends of the year, looked great on Saturday beating San Diego by 25, and have a good veteran coach in Herb Sendek. Saint Mary's is the better team, I'm just hoping to keep it in single digits tonight.
G10. Cleveland State +6.5 vs. Oakland
Grabbing points in the Horizon seems to be a good idea since #2, #3, #4 have already been sent packing. #1 Oakland lost at Cleveland State back in December by 8, beat Cleveland State by 12 at home in February. Grizzlies have won 6 of 7, solid 10-point over Purdue Fort Wayne in the quarterfinals. #3 on offense, #4 on defense. Cleveland State won @ Bradley in the non-conference, had an impressive 12-point win @ Youngstown State in the quarters. Dangerous team. 6.5 seems a bit much, I'll grab the points.
G11. East Tennessee State +10.5 vs. Samford
I fully expect to be backing Samford in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament next week, they will win this game. Bulldogs are 28-5, beat Furman by 7 yesterday, have the #1 offense, #2 defense in the SoCon. They beat ETSU by 3 on the road, by 16 at home. Buccaneers enter fresh off the big upset over Chattanooga in OT, this will be 4 games in 4 days, never easy on the legs. Tank could be on empty, blowout potential. With all that said, 10.5 is a BIG number. I'll take the points.
G12. Portland State +7.5 vs. Montana
Teams split during the season, Portland State won by 26 at home, Montana won by 9 at home. Grizzlies have the 2nd best offense, Portland State has the 3rd best D. I think the Vikings can keep this one interesting, give me the points.
G13. Texas A&M-Commerce +6.5 vs. Nicholls State
6.5 isn't 6 but Nicholls State won both meetings during the season, won in 2OT on the road by 3, won by 15 at home. It's tough to beat a team 3x in the season even at 6.5. Give me the points.
G14. Lamar -9.5 vs. New Orleans
Lamar beat New Orleans both times in the regular season winning by 25 at home, winning by 22 on the road. Statement wins. Cardinals are solid on both ends of the floor, 2nd on O, 3rd on D. New Orleans is 10-22, big upset win over SE Louisiana yesterday but the metrics are bad for a reason. I'm laying the points.
