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My Conference Tournament Results:
1H Unders: 51-35-1, 59.3%, up 9.3496 units
Sides: 44-42-1, 51.2%, down 1.9996 units
WHAT IF Results: (Not betting, just tracking for future reference)
Every Underdog ATS: 38-48-1, 44.2%, down 13.4542 units
Every Underdog ML: 24-63, 27.6%, down 12.02 units
Today's 1H Unders:
Monmouth/Charleston Under 73
Longwood/UNC Asheville Under 65.5
Bucknell/Colgate Under 61.5
Drake/Indiana State Under 70.5
Austin Peay/Stetson Under 67.5
Towson/UNC Wilmington Under 60.5
Lehigh/Boston U Under 65
Furman/Samford Under 72
Stony Brook/Drexel Under 65.5
New Orleans/SE Louisiana Under 68.5
Arkansas State/Appalachian State Under 68.5
East Tennessee State/Chattanooga Under 65.5
North Dakota State/St. Thomas Under 63
Sacramento State/Eastern Washington Under 66.5
Delaware/Hofstra Under 63.5
Texas A&M-Commerce/Northwestern State Under 63.5
Texas State/James Madison Under 66.5
Omaha/North Dakota Under 68.5
Idaho State/Northern Colorado Under 66.5
ATS Picks:
G1. Drake +1.5 vs. Indiana State (from the podcast)
Top 2 teams meet in the Valley, I was hoping for some chaos on Saturday but it didn't happen. Drake won by 11 at home this year, Indiana State won by 8 at home. Drake has won 9 of 10. Indiana State has won 6 straight. Sycamores are #1 on both ends of the floor, Bulldogs rank 2nd on O, 3rd on D. 15 Top 200 wins for Indiana State, 18 Top 200 wins for Drake. Best win of the year: Drake crushing Nevada by 19 on neutral floor. First Arch Madness title game appearance since 2014 for the Sycamores, this is the 4th straight year for the Bulldogs in the title game.....they won it last year by 26 over Bradley. Experience edge to Drake. I would love to see both teams in the Big Dance, give me the Bulldogs in this one.
G2. UNC Asheville -3 vs. Longwood (from the podcast)
Crazy day in the Big South yesterday, Longwood stormed back to beat the top seed and host school High Point by 1 in OT. UNC Ashville battled back and then made it look easy in OT winning by 11 over Gardner Webb. 2 teams played a couple good ones during the year, Asheville won by 4 at home, Longwood won by 5 at home. Longwood was 6-10 in conference during the season, Asheville was 12-4. Asheville has one of my favorite players in Drew Pember, triple double yesterday. I'm expecting for the glass slipper to fall off today for the Lancers, give me UNC Asheville.
G3. Lehigh -1 @ Boston U (from the podcast)
#6 is favored on the road at #2. Boston U won both meetings during the regular season beating Lehigh by 1 at home, then won by 2 in OT on the road. I heard a rumor that it's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.
G4. East Tennessee State +7.5 vs. Chattanooga (from the podcast)
No line was out last night, based on Ken Pom having this game at 3 I was expecting this to qualify for my tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less. It no longer qualifies for that but I'm still playing it with 4.5 points on value vs. Pom.
G5. Idaho State +3.5 vs. Northern Colorado (from the podcast)
Northern Colorado won the first meeting at home by 5 in 2OT. Bears beat the Bengals again in the second meeting by 2. I keep hearing this voice telling me that it's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.
G6. Appalachian State -4.5 vs. Arkansas State
Mountaineers survived in OT yesterday against Georgia Southern to win for the 8th straight time. Mountaineers beat Arkansas State by 23 in the lone meeting, Mountaineers swept James Madison this year, they beat Auburn, they beat UNC Wilmington by 30. This is a good basketball team. Arkansas State was won 7 of 8 including a dominating 27-point win yesterday over Louisiana. Today, I expect Appalachian State to bring it and cover.
G7. Samford -1.5 vs. Furman
Teams split during the season, Furman won by 10 at home, Samford won by 2 at home. Ken Pom has this at 5. Furman needed OT to beat Western Carolina yesterday, they are mid-pack on both ends of the floor. Samford went 15-3 in the SoCon, rank #1 on O, #2 on D. I regret not putting this on my podcast card. I really, really, really like Samford today.
G8. UNC Wilmington -2.5 vs. Towson
Last time Wilmington played, tempers were running hot in the 75-64 win over Towson to end the season. This will be an intense game after that finish. Towson pulled away in the 2H to beat William & Mary by 11 yesterday. Towson beat Wilmington in the first meeting by 3 and they have the #1 D in the CAA. UNC Wilmington can score, they rank 2nd on O, they beat Kentucky this year, they have upside so give me the Seahawks.
G9. Delaware +4.5 vs. Hofstra
Hofstra won the only meeting this year by 5 at home. Pride finished 8-2 down the stretch losing only to Drexel & Charleston. Rank #2 on D, #4 on offense. Delaware had no issue with Hampton yesterday winning by 30. The Blue Hens metrics aren't as favorable ranking 8th on O, 4th on D. I should probably back Hofstra, but they burned me a few times this year with disappointing efforts so I'm going to grab the points and hope for one of those off nights.
G10. Monmouth +9.5 vs. Charleston
I love Pat Kelsey & the Cougars. 9 straight wins, 4 straight by double digits. This is a numbers play for me. Ken Pom has at 6. Line is 9.5, might hit 10. Value on the Monmouth side. I'll take the points.
G11. North Dakota -2 vs. Nebraska Omaha
Teams split during the season, UNO won by 18 at home, UND won by 21 at home. Fighting Hawks started 0-3 in the Summit, finished 10-6 with good metrics including on the offensive glass. Mavericks lost 5 of 7 to end the year with the only wins against the teams that played in the 8/9 game. Anything can happen but the Fighting Hawks should have enough talent to win this one given recent performance trends.
G12. Stetson -3.5 vs. Austin Peay
True home game. I was ready to pick Austin Peay, I want to pick Austin Peay. I got cold feet. If 10 people gave me a side on this game, all 10 picked Austin Peay. Yes, Stetson struggled to beat Jacksonville, but Austin Peay also needed OT to beat North Florida. Stetson won the first meeting by 1 at home. Austin Peay has won 9 of 10. I will probably be kicking myself later today, but I'll lay the points with the Hatters.
G13. Texas State +11 vs. James Madison
Cashing a ticket with a double-digit dog has been tough so far in conference tournament action. I'll try again today. JMU won the first meeting by 17 at home. Dukes are 29-3 including the season opening win @ Michigan State. Texas State has won 6 straight. 4th game for them vs. 2nd game for James Madison. Might be a factor late but I expect this one to stay in single digits.
G14. North Dakota State +5.5 vs. St. Thomas
Computer was to play St. Thomas. Can't do it. North Dakota State head coach Dave Richman is called "Sioux Falls" Dave. North Dakota State has advanced to the title game 5 straight years, they always seem to peak at this time. I'm not passing up Sioux Falls Dave getting 5.5.
G15. Northwestern State +1.5 vs. Texas A&M-Commerce
Revenge spot to start the tournament. Last game of the regular season: Texas A&M Commerce beat Northwestern State at home 83-80 in 3OT. That's all I need to see. Give me the Demons today.
G16. New Orleans +6.5 vs. Southeastern Louisiana
Just missed my 6-point cut to be a system play but I'm still playing it. SE Louisiana won the first meeting by 5 on the road, won the second meeting by 10 at home. 3rd time, I'll grab the points.
G17. Bucknell +10.5 @ Colgate
True road game. Colgate won both meetings during the year winnings @ Bucknell by 11, winning at home by 12. Bucknell won @ American on Thursday by 23. Last 7 wins for the Bison have all been by double digits. They have some potential; this one might be in doubt at the Under 8. I'm grabbing the points.
G18. Eastern Washington -11.5 vs. Sacramento State
Eastern Washington last played @ Sacramento State winning by 3. I was dumb enough to lay points with the Eagles in that one and lost. I get payback today on a neutral floor.
G19. Drexel -3.5 vs. Stony Brook
Drexel won the lone meeting during the year by 4 at home. Dragons are solid, top 3 on both ends of the floor. Stony Brook beat me yesterday by crushing Northeastern for the third time this season. Seawolves rank 5th on both ends of the floor. Drexel beat Villanova this year, they have upside, dangerous out in the CAA so I'll lay the points.
