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My Conference Tournament Results:
1H Unders: 34-23-1, 59.6%, up 6.5664 units
Sides: 28-29-1, 49.1%, down 3.5452 units
WHAT IF Results: (Not betting, just tracking for future reference)
Every Underdog ATS: 28-29-1, 49.1%, down 3.5452 units
Every Underdog ML: 18-40, 31.0%, down 2.42 units
Today's 1H Unders:
Campbell/Monmouth Under 68.5
Le Moyne/Merrimack Under 62.5
Mercer/Samford Under 73.5
Longwood/High Point Under 72.5
Georgia Southern/Appalachian State Under 69.5
Wagner/Central Connecticut Under 58.5
Maine/Bryant Under 67
Gardner-Webb/UNC Asheville Under 70.5
William & Mary/Towson Under 60.5
East Tennessee State/UNC Greensboro Under 62.5
UAlbany/Vermont Under 68.5
Binghamton/New Hampshire Under 69
UMBC/UMass Lowell Under 76.5
Louisiana/Arkansas State Under 71.5
Northern Iowa/Indiana State Under 69.5
Northeastern/Stony Brook Under 65
Bradley/Drake Under 64
Texas State/Troy Under 65.5
Wofford/Chattanooga Under 67.5
Oral Roberts/South Dakota State Under 70.5
Sacramento State/Idaho Under 60.5
Morehead State/Little Rock Under 65
Hampton/Delaware Under 65.5
Marshall/James Madison Under 72.5
Furman/Western Carolina Under 69.5
Denver/Kansas City Under 71
San Diego/Santa Clara Under 70.5
Idaho State/Northern Arizona Under 65.5
Portland/San Francisco Under 68
ATS Picks:
G1. Wagner +6 @ Central Connecticut (from the podcast)
Blue Devils of Central Connecticut won the first 2 meetings of the season winning by 1 in OT at home, winning by 1 on the road. 2 heartbreaking losses for the Seahawks, I'm hoping for revenge today. I've heard it before, it's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.
G2. Denver +4.5 vs. UMKC (from the podcast)
Roos of UMKC have won 6 in a row and they won both meetings this year against Denver. Roos won by 14 at home, then won by 15 @ the Pioneers last week. None the less, it's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.
G3. Northeastern +2.5 vs. Stony Brook (from the podcast)
The Seawolves of Stony Brook won the first 2 meetings of the season, winning by 9 @ Northeastern and by 4 at home over the Huskies. Let's say it again, it's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.
G4. Wofford +4 @ Chattanooga (from the podcast)
How committed am I to this strategy? I love the guards at Chattanooga, I've bet on them all year and now when it matters most I'm jumping ship. Mocs won both meetings in the regular season winning @ Wofford by 14, beating the Terriers by 16 at home just a couple weeks ago. As much as I want to bet them, it's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.
G5. Arkansas State -1.5 vs. Louisiana (from the podcast)
We finally have a favorite that has lost both games in the regular season. Ragin Cajuns won the first meeting by 7 on the road, won the second meeting by 6 at home. It's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.....in this case the underdog. Give me the Red Wolves.
G6. Bradley +2.5 vs. Drake (podcast add)
Drake won both meetings during the season, by 7 @ Bradley and then an 8-point win at home to end the regular season. I love Drake, this play pains me but I'm sticking with the system of it's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.
G7. UNC Asheville -2.5 vs. Gardner Webb (podcast add)
I love UNC Asheville and now it's a system play. Gardner Webb won both meetings during the season, by 7 at home, by 1 @ UNC Asheville. It's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less. Give me the Bulldogs!
G8. Sacramento State +1 vs. Idaho (podcast add)
Idaho won the first meeting, 61-58 at home. Idaho won game two on the road 61-45. It's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.
G9. Northern Iowa +7.5 vs. Indiana State
Indiana State won the lone meeting by 11 in Cedar Falls. Sycamores are the class of the Valley, but UNI was won 4 straight including a 14-point win over Drake, 12-point win @ Southern Illinois, and the hard-fought win yesterday over Belmont. Ben Jacobson has them peaking at the right time, I'll grab the points.
G10. Western Carolina +1.5 vs. Furman
Teams split during the season, Furman won by 3 at home, Western won by 8 at home. Catamounts have the #1 D in the SoCon, Paladins are mid-pack on both ends of the floor. Furman lost 3 of 4 down the stretch, I'll take the dog.
G11. Morehead State -3.5 vs. Little Rock
Little Rock has won 10 straight games, solid club that destroyed Western Illinois by 25 in the semis. Game 2 for Little Rock, Game 3 in 3 days for Morehead State. UT Martin gave the Eagles a battle last night before they pulled it out by 6. Morehead State is no stranger to the championship game, I'm counting on that experience to help bring it home. Little Rock won the only meeting during the season by 1 at home.
G12. East Tennessee State +7.5 vs. UNC Greensboro
East Tennessee State won the last game of the regular season over Greensboro by 1. Greensboro won the first meeting by 16. This is a Ken Pom value play; model has UNC Greensboro by 3. I can't pass up 4.5 points of value.
G13. Texas State +6.5 vs. Troy
Texas State won the last game of the regular season over Troy by 3 in OT at home. Troy won the first meeting by 13. First game of the tournament for Troy, 3rd game for Texas State. Bobcats beat ODU in OT on Tuesday, crushed Southern Miss on Thursday, had the off day on Friday. Slight edge to Texas State, familiar with the building. 6.5 is a bit much, I'll grab the points.
G14. High Point -6.5 vs. Longwood
Teams split during the season, High Point won the first meeting by 17, Longwood won the 2nd meeting by 2. High Point started slow yesterday but turned it on for a 14-point win over Radford, Panthers have the #1 O in the Big South. Lancers have won 5 of 7, none the less I think High Point can cover the number today.
G15. Samford -8 vs. Mercer
Most of the time the value is on the underdog, this time it's on the favorite. Teams split during the season, Samford won by 7, Wofford won by 22. I can understand the line based on that result. Body of work has me loving Samford, #83 in the Ken Pom numbers, 12 Top 200 wins. Mercer has 5 Top 200 wins and ranks 7th on both ends of the floor. I'll lay the points.
G16. Bryant -5.5 vs. Maine
Maine won the first meeting by 7, Bryant won the second meeting by 5. Both teams have a good D. Home game for Bryant, I'll lay the points with the Bulldogs.
G17. Oral Roberts +8 vs. South Dakota State
99% crowd edge to the Jackrabbits tonight. South Dakota State lost the first meeting by 5, won the second meeting by 11. Jacks pulled away late in the season to win the Summit, Oral Roberts disappointed most of the year losing 7 down the stretch before beating up on South Dakota last night in the 8/9 game. If we see the ORU that we've seen most of the year, Jacks win by 20. If we see the ORU that we expected to see, the team that lost @ Texas Tech by 6, took K State to OT on the road, and the team that crushed South Dakota last night.....we will have the #1 seed on upset alert. I'm a big Issac McBride guy, I like the underdog story, I'll take the Golden Eagles.
G18. San Diego +11.5 vs. Santa Clara
Did I really watch San Diego win a game last night without making a 2-point shot in the 2H? I was a long day of basketball, but I think that really happened. Teams split during the season, it's March, we saw heavy favorites cover a ton of numbers yesterday....not today. I'll grab the 11.5.
G19. New Hampshire -2 vs. Binghamton
Binghamton played New Hampshire tough during the season winning by 13 at home, losing by 6 in OT on the road. None the less I'm not going to pass up laying only a bucket at home.
G20. Northern Arizona +5.5 vs. Idaho State
Teams split a pair of tight games during the season. Idaho State won by 2 at home. Northern Arizona won by 4 at home in 2OT. Idaho State lost the last 3 games of the year, I can't lay 5.5 so I'll back the dog.
G21. Campbell +5.5 vs. Monmouth
Monmouth won the first meeting by 1 at home. Campbell passed the eye test when they beat Wilmington in 2OT. I'll grab the points.
G22. Marshall +12.5 vs. James Madison
JMU is really good, 28-3 good. They beat Marshall by 15 and 26 during the season. 12.5 in tournament play is still a big number against a team that beat Ohio, UNC Greensboro, Louisiana, and Texas State during the season. Thundering Herd played on this floor already, I'll grab the points.
G23. Merrimack -7 vs. Le Moyne
Merrimack won the first meeting by 4, Merrimack won the second meeting by 16. Warriors have won 11 of 12 and they have the home court edge in this one. Not 6 or less, I'll lay the 7.
G24. UMass Lowell -8 vs. UMBC
River Hawks won both meetings during the season by 4 and 13. Home game vs. neutral, not 6 or less, and it's a Ken Pom value play since he has UMass Lowell by 11.
G25. William & Mary +11.5 vs. Towson
Towson won the lone meeting by 9 @ William & Mary. Tigers are #1 on D, Tribe have won 2 straight....maybe just maybe they can keep this one interesting.
G26. Georgia Southern +13.5 vs. Appalachian State
App State swept the regular season winning by 1 in OT on the road, winning by 10 at home. Now the number is 13.5 on a neutral floor at tournament time. Mountaineers have won 7 straight games, #1 on D, 16-2 in conference. Georgia Southern started 0-12, now 9-23. They've won 4 of 5. They didn't give up at 0-12, I don't expect them to go down without a fight today, so I'll grab the points.
G27. Albany +17.5 @ Vermont
Another Ken Pom value play since he has a 13-point spread. Rare to get 4.5 points of value. I'll grab the points.
G28. Portland +16 vs. San Francisco
San Francisco beat Portland by 27 and 12 during the regular season. The Portland that I watched beat Loyola Marymount last night isn't losing by more than 16 tonight. We will see if THAT team shows up again tonight. I hope they do.
G29. Delaware -10 vs. Hampton
Delaware won the lone meeting during the year by 27. Blue Hens beat Xavier this year, they won @ Towson by double digits. This team has upside, hats off to Hampton for upsetting Elon yesterday but the party is over today.
