Here we go again. It's time to dance. Still waiting on 2 totals for Friday.
1H Unders:
| Wagner/Howard | 59.5 |
| Colorado State/Virginia | 55 |
| Grambling/Montana State | 62 |
| Colorado/Boise State | 65 |
| Michigan State/Mississippi State | 60 |
| Duquesne/BYU | 66.5 |
| Akron/Creighton | 65.5 |
| Long Beach State/Arizona | 77 |
| Morehead State/Illinois | 70 |
| Oregon/South Carolina | 61.5 |
| Nevada/Dayton | 64.5 |
| Oakland/Kentucky | 78.5 |
| McNeese/Gonzaga | 69.5 |
| South Dakota State/Iowa State | 62.5 |
| North Carolina State/Texas Tech | 68.5 |
| Saint Peter's/Tennessee | 62.5 |
| Samford/Kansas | 71 |
| Drake/Washington State | 64.5 |
| Wagner/North Carolina | 63.5 |
| Colorado State/Texas | 67.5 |
| Northwestern/Florida Atlantic | 65 |
| Colgate/Baylor | 64.5 |
| UAB/San Diego State | 64 |
| Western Kentucky/Marquette | 76 |
| New Mexico/Clemson | 70.5 |
| Yale/Auburn | 65 |
| Texas A&M/Nebraska | 67.5 |
| Vermont/Duke | 62 |
| Charleston/Alabama | 82.5 |
| Longwood/Houston | 60 |
| James Madison/Wisconsin | 67.5 |
| TCU/Utah State | 69.5 |
| Grand Canyon/Saint Mary's | 60.5 |
| Stetson/UConn | 71 |
| Colorado/Florida | 75 |
| Grambling/Purdue | 66 |
Sides:
Colorado State -1.5 vs. Virginia
Both teams are Top 40 on defense. Colorado State is 42nd in offensive efficiency, Virginia ranks 194th plus as I learned the hard way in a tight game the Cavaliers rank 349th in FT shooting.
Boise State +2.5 vs. Colorado
I was going to wait for 3, felt more of a risk dropping to 2. Not sure if I will be right or wrong on that. Winning away from home is tough in college basketball. Boise State beat FOUR tournament teams away from home with wins over Saint Mary's, Nevada, New Mexico, and San Diego State. I'm sold.
Michigan State -1.5 vs. Mississippi State
Last Big 10 team to win a National Championship, Michigan State in 2000. The Big 10 has been getting its teeth kicked in year after year after year. I might have a Big 10 bias, but I truly think the Big 10 will be dangerous this year in the tournament. Spartans are just a bit better on both ends of the floor, I think Izzo gets the Big 10 off to a good start in the opening game on Thursday.
Nevada -1 vs. Dayton
Dayton frustrated me down the stretch, I lost money on them. Meanwhile, Nevada did everything that I could ask for winning at Utah State, at Colorado State, and at Boise State. I'm going to back the team that won three games down the stretch at tournament teams.
Washington State PK vs. Drake
Might shock some people that I'm going against a Valley school in this one. I love Tucker DeVries, he's averaging 21.8 PPG for Drake. The 19-point win against Nevada on a neutral floor was impressive, 5-1 record against Bradley & Indiana State was also impressive. They have the better numbers on offense, but Washington State swept Arizona, won at Oregon, beat Colorado, and beat Boise State on a neutral floor. I'm can't overlook that so I'm backing the Cougars.
South Carolina PK vs. Oregon
I love Dana Altman, Ducks just had a great run to win the Pac 12, big fella down low looks unstoppable, peaking at the right time, getting healthy down the stretch will be the discussion points for the Ducks. BUT Dante has been playing since mid-January, he shot 70% on the season, he played in all EIGHT conference losses so I'm not going to overreact. I underestimated South Carolina all year. They beat Grand Canyon on a neutral floor, they won at Tennessee, they won at Texas A&M, they won at Mississippi State. All tournament teams plus they beat Florida & Kentucky. It's time for me to give them the respect they deserve.
BYU -7.5 vs. Duquesne
I can't play this one fast enough. BYU has the 11th best offense in the country, Duquesne ranks 166th. Dukes finished strong winning 8 straight after starting 0-5 in the A-10. Duquesne played 4 games against Top 50 opponents: lost at Nebraska by 10, lost to Dayton by 10, lost at Dayton by 16, and then upset Dayton in the A-10 tournament. BYU beat San Diego State, Iowa State, Texas, Baylor, TCU, and won at Kansas. They have 6 Top 50 wins. Give me the Cougars.
Illinois -12 vs. Morehead State
I was going to play this at 13.5, I will gladly play it at 12. Everyone knows by now that I'm extremely high on Illinois, multiple 1st Team All-Conference players, maybe the top player in the country right now. Morehead State has improved during the year after losing to Alabama by 32, Purdue by 30, and Penn State by 23. Still, have you seen the Illinois offense? Morehead State ranks 120th on D, this might be track meet early, but the Fighting Illini will run away in the 2H.
Creighton -12.5 vs. Akron
The Big East was disrespected on Selection Sunday. Creighton is Top 25 in the nation on both ends of the floor, they won at Nebraska by 29. They beat Alabama, they beat the defending champ and top seed UConn, they beat Marquette. Akron ranks 162nd on offense, 97th on defense. I'll lay the points before the number increases.
Kentucky -13.5 vs. Oakland
Total in this one is 163. Holy cow! Both teams are outside the Top 100 on D. Kentucky ranks 5th on offense, Oakland ranks 135th. It's Kentucky, it's Coach Cal, anything can happen but this time around Kentucky can score. I think they can also cover.
Tennessee -19.5 vs. Saint Peter's
Both teams can play D. Tennessee ranks 29th on offense, Saint Peter's ranks 305 in the nation. Last year, I backed offenses ranked in the 300's, didn't end well for me so I'm not doing it this year.
North Carolina -24 vs. Wagner
This thing is steaming fast, I had on my list at -22.5 and it jumped quick. Wagner has no depth to foul, North Carolina averages 23 free throws per game. Wagner ranks 332nd on offense, North Carolina ranks 24. 1 vs. 16 games in my early days going to Vegas were always lines of -40 to -45. This one has the potential to finish in that range.
Colorado State +3 vs. Texas
Tuesday night only reinforced how much I like Colorado State. Rams are Top 40 on both ends of the floor, beat Creighton on neutral floor by 21, and have 7 wins vs. NCAA tournament teams. No knock on Texas, solid club, Max Abmas is fun to watch, #19 on offense, 6 Top 50 wins this season. As of this moment, I plan to back everyone from the Mountain West on Thursday & Friday. I like this team, I like the MWC this year. I'll grab the 3.
Stetson +26.5 vs. UConn
I don't like double digit numbers; it is tough for me to handicap. Why am I willing to lay 24 with North Carolina and 19.5 with Tennessee but not lay 26.5 with the #1 team? Good question. Saint Peter's ranks 306th on offense, Wagner ranks 332nd on offense. Stetson ranks 102nd. That's all I have, plus Ken Pom has UConn by only 23.
Clemson +2.5 vs. New Mexico
I struggled with this game. The love that I'm seeing for New Mexico and the lack of a line move is scaring me. Lobos had to win 4 games in 4 days including wins over Boise State, Colorado State, and San Diego State. They won all 3 of those by 7 or more. Without that, sounds like the Lobos would've been out of the tournament. Pitino has a ton of talent on the roster, but they go just 4-6 in the final 10 of the regular season including the home loss to 9-22 Air Force. Clemson beat Boise State by 17 in the NC, won at Alabama, beat TCU on a neutral floor, won at North Carolina. Not bad, they also lost at home to Georgia Tech and at Notre Dame plus they lost 3 of 4 to end the season. Not good. Tyler has been nailing these Mountain West picks, he loves New Mexico, very possible that I'm going to kick myself, but something is telling me to grab the points.
Utah State +4.5 vs. TCU
Mountain West got 6 teams into the dance, yet the conference winner is a multi-possession underdog in the opening round against the 7th best team in the Big 12. Utah State ranks higher in offensive efficiency, they had TWO 1st Team All-Conference players. I like teams with multiple top end players so I'm grabbing the points.
Baylor -13.5 vs. Colgate
Colgate went 16-2 in the Patriot, 6-7 in the NC losing to Arizona by 27, Iona by 20, Yale by 18, and Illinois by 17 to name a name. Raiders rank 209th on offense, while Baylor ranks 6th. That's enough for me to lay the points.
Marquette -14.5 vs. Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky went 22-11 without losing a game by more than 10 points. Toughest opponent: Conference foe Louisiana Tech ranked #98, they split during the season. Hilltoppers lost 4 straight prior to running the table at the conference tournament. WKU ranks 190th on offense, Marquette #22. Golden Eagles beat Xavier by 24, Providence by 22, Texas by 21, Seton Hall by 18, Kansas by 14. I'll lay the number.
Longwood +24.5 vs. Houston
Tons of people I respect are on Houston in the 1H, that might be a good play. For the game, Ken Pom has Houston 19. Rare to see a 5.5-point edge against that number so I'm not going to pass it up.
Grand Canyon +5.5 vs. Saint Mary's
Bryce Drew and the Antelopes are a trendy upset pick, 29-4 on the year, South Carolina was the only NC loss on the season. Best win: Beat San Diego State. Both teams are in the Top 65 on both ends of the floor, this should be a good quality basketball game, I'm a big Gaels fan but I can't justify laying 5.5.
Wisconsin -5 vs. James Madison
I really like how the Badgers responded at the Big 10 tournament, defense improved, offense looked great. Badgers are ranked #12 in the nation in offensive efficiency. Never thought that I would see that. Badgers beat Marquette, Purdue, and swept Michigan State. JMU had the big marque win @ Michigan State to open the season, that was the only Top 100 win this year. I'll lay the points.
Alabama -9.5 vs. Charleston
Pat Kelsey is one of my favorite coaches. My wife wants to visit Charleston, I love the tempo they play, 58th best offense in the country. Alabama can score, 3rd best offense in the country, lost 4 of 6 down the stretch giving up 117, 105, 102, and 81. The defense is not easy on the eye to watch. Alabama beat Liberty by 45, crushed South Carolina by 27, LSU by 21, Mississippi State by 32, Texas A&M by 25. When Alabama is on, watch out. I'll back the North Dakota kid Grant Nelson and the Tide -9.5.
Duke -12 vs. Vermont
How's this for a handicap? I'll be sitting at the book with a bunch of Duke fans. My ride home is a Duke fan. I'm not betting against Duke. Blue Devils rank 7th on offense, Catamounts rank 158th.
Nebraska -1 vs. Texas A&M
And then we have NONE. Nebraska is the LAST Power 5 program without an NCAA Tournament win. That ends on Friday. Biggest fear: Huskers rank 36th in % of points from beyond the arc, teams that live and die from 3 are always a risk but I've watched enough of Nebraska to have faith. The Aggies have a ton of upside, beat Iowa State, Tennessee, & Kentucky twice. They also got swept by Arkansas and lost to Vanderbilt. Wade Taylor will be the best player on the floor, that always concerns me but it's time for the Huskers to taste tournament success.
UAB +7.5 vs. San Diego State
I was wavering on this one. I made a complex decision. I decided if Boise State covered against Colorado, I would bet San Diego State. If not, I would bet UAB. It beats a coinflip.
Purdue -26 vs. Grambling State
After being upset last year in the 1/16 game, I expect Purdue to run it up and leave no doubt. Grambling State ranks 287th on offense, lost by 32 against Colorado, 55 to Iowa State, 30 to Dayton, 39 to Florida. Purdue ranks 4th on offense, beat Samford by 53, Morehead State by 30, Texas Southern by 32, Jacksonville by 43, Eastern Kentucky by 27, Michigan by 32, Rutgers by 28. What do all of those teams have in common? They rank higher than Grambling in the Ken Pom numbers. I'll lay the points.
Yale +13 vs. Auburn
Princeton loss to UNLV didn't help my confidence level but Yale ranks Top 100 on both ends of the floor so they can score. They struggled against Brown but got the buzzer beater to survive and advance. Auburn dominated at the SEC tournament, Top 10 team on both ends of the floor, Final 4 threat, but I'm thinking 13 might be a little much. I have a feeling this game will be in doubt at the under 8 timeout.
Florida Atlantic -2.5 vs. Northwestern
I was flopping like a fish over this game. Boo Buie is a big game player. In the end, I'm going to use the words of a Northwestern fan that said, "my head is telling me that we're too damaged and FAU is too capable." That sums it up to me. Northwestern isn't the Northwestern that they could be because of injuries. Florida Atlantic has underachieved, but they still have a ton of talent with tournament experience. Give me the Owls.
Colorado +1.5 vs. Florida
Colorado is much better offensively than they looked on Wednesday against Boise, I love that they can hit clutch FT's down the stretch ranking 16th in the nation. Gators rank 7th in the nation in offensive rebounds but lost Center Micah Handlogten in the SEC Tournament. The Gators still have plenty of offense, but I had decided at the time of the bracket that I was picking the winner of the play in game in this one.
