It's Tournament Time! Round of 32 Bets for Saturday

Dayton might be the end of me. I had Nevada on Thursday; Flyers broke my heart. I backed Dayton several times on the road, never seemed to work out for me. Loss @ Loyola was the most painful of the bunch. They played within 14 on a neutral against Houston, lost at Northwestern by 5. Ken Pom numbers have this at 6, Flyers rank 21^st on offense, 69^th on defense. I have Arizona in my Final 4, I really like this team. Top 10 on both ends of the floor. I hate to bet against them, but the numbers say I should, the early tip tells me that I should, and maybe by backing Dayton that will allow me to keep my Final 4 team in it since Dayton always seems to do what I don't want to see happen. Let's grab the 9.5. 

 

I'm almost embarrassed to back Kansas, dropped 4 of 5 down the stretch losing by 8 at home against BYU, lost by 8 at Baylor, lost at Houston by 30, lost on a neutral by 20 to Cincinnati before surviving with a 4-point win over Samford shooting 60% but turning it over 18 times. They don't have McCullar, they lost 10 games, they finished 5^th in the Big 12. Let's focus on what they do have. Dickinson was 1^st Team All-Conference, put up 19 points - 20 rebounds on Thursday, Dajuan Harris was 1^st Team All-Defense, Johnny Furphy was 1^st Team All-Freshman in the tough Big 12. The Jayhawks beat Tennessee & Kentucky on a neutral floor, they beat a pair of #1's at home beating both UConn & Houston. Beating a 3-seed Baylor at home is the 5^th best win this season for Kansas. Zags kicked my butt on Thursday with McNeese, they won at Kentucky, they won at Saint Mary's, they have a top-level offense ranking 8^th in the country. Zags are good, but something is telling me not count out Kansas, let's do it. Rock Chalk Jayhawk. Give me the points. 

 

I cashed in on Michigan State to open the dance on Thursday, getting that first win is always the toughest for me so I will thank this team for that. Ken Pom has the Tar Heels by 3, computer numbers have loved Michigan State all season, 1-seeds reach the Sweet 16 84.2% of the time. The Spartans have Izzo, they have played the 7^th best schedule, they beat Baylor & Illinois, they lost 5 games by 3 or less this year including at Illinois. They key for me; they LOST 14 games and were inconsistent most of the year. Prior to the win over Mississippi State, they had lost 5 of 7. North Carolina ranks 18^th on offense, 7^th on defense, they beat Tennessee, swept Duke, beat NC State twice, won at Clemson. 28-7 on the season. On court performance has earned my respect. I'll lay the points. 

 

Pac 12 is 5-0 so far in the tournament, Washington State was good enough to beat Arizona twice, won at Oregon, beat Colorado. Cougars are ranked 22^nd on D, 68^th on offense. Iowa State ranks 52^nd on offense, 2^nd on defense. I have so much respect for Houston, Cyclones beat them twice including the 28 pounding in the Big 12 Championship, that speaks volumes. Baylor looked unstoppable yesterday, Iowa State beat them by 14 in the Big 12 semifinal, lost by 2 at Baylor. They won at tournament teams TCU and Texas. Crowd edge to Iowa State in Omaha, I'll lay the points. 

 

These are all tough games to handicap. Ken Pom has North Carolina State by 7. One of my favorite handicaps is to talk regression stats. On the season, both of these teams shot 45% from the floor. North Carolina State shot 50.9% vs. Texas Tech on Thursday, 54.9% vs. North Carolina in the ACC title, 48.3% vs. Virginia in the ACC semifinal, 45.9% vs. Duke in the ACC quarterfinals. All four games above average shooting. Oakland hit a ton of 3's but only hit 41.3% vs. Kentucky on Thursday, they shot 43.5% in the Horizon Championship vs. Milwaukee, shot 38.7% in the Horizon League semifinal vs. Cleveland State. Golden Grizzles have won 3 straight elimination games with subpar shooting. Flip the script game for me, I'll grab the points. 

 

Rick Barnes gets to face his old assistant and the program that fired him with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line. My level of concern with this wager has increased since watching most of the SEC struggle in this tournament. Volunteers rank 3^rd on D, 28^th on offense. Beat Illinois, Wisconsin, and North Carolina State in the non-conference, lost to Purdue, Kansas, and North Carolina. Tennessee won at Kentucky, Alabama, and South Carolina in the conference. Vols are more than capable of winning 5 more. I tip my cap to Texas, nice W over Colorado State. Top 40 team on both ends, up and down 9-9 in the Big 12, I'm not a believer in the Longhorns. I'll lay the points. 

 

Illinois is my national champ; I'm going to back them until the end. No handicap is required, magical ride ends tonight for the Dukes. 

 

The number keeps dropping, 4.5 is a really good number in my opinion on Creighton. The two winningest coaches in Creighton history get to face each other, as Coach Greg McDermott said this week, Dana Altman is still beloved in Omaha taking a program from 1,500 fans a game into a 17,000-seat sold out arena. Averaging 45.7% from the floor during the year the Ducks shot 59.6% against South Carolina on Thursday. Metrics on both ends of the floor strongly favor Creighton, scoring options favor Creighton with 3 veterans averaging 17+ points per game, but the Ducks have a 1-2 punch that combined for 63 on Thursday. Blue Jays have wins over UConn, Marquette, & Alabama. I'll lay the 4.5 as Coach Mac beats the legend that he replaced in Omaha.