My NCAA Tournament Results
ATS/Sides: 28-16, 63.6%, up 9.4548 units
1H Totals/Unders: 18-24-2, 42.8%, down 8.3472 units
Sunday Totals: (Always Under)
| Colorado/Marquette | 69.5 |
| Utah State/Purdue | 69.5 |
| James Madison/Duke | 70 |
| Clemson/Baylor | 68 |
| Grand Canyon/Alabama | 79 |
| Northwestern/UConn | 64 |
| Texas A&M/Houston | 62.5 |
| Yale/San Diego State | 60.5 |
ATS/Sides:
Northwestern +14.5 vs. UConn
Betting into UConn is a bad idea, defending champs, 32-3, #2 on offense, #11 on defense, #1 Overall in the Ken Pom numbers. Huskies against Top 40 teams this year have a 10-2 record. Of those 10 wins the only wins by more than 14 were against one team this year, Marquette winning by 28 & 16. Northwestern ranks #38, 11 losses on the season, only Illinois beat them by more than 14. That was a 30-point defeat. Northwestern played tough a couple times this year vs. a #1 seed beating Purdue at home, losing to Purdue in OT on the road. They also beat Illinois at home this year. The Wildcats are tough, they shot terrible in the 1H against FAU, and survived in OT. I think they will put up a fight and cash the +14.5.
Utah State +11.5 vs. Purdue
I backed both of these teams on Friday and cashed. Utah State helped save face for the Mountain West with the impressive win over TCU. The Aggies are 28-6 on the season and might be even better than I thought with multiple 1st Team All-Conference players. Conference losses scare me, lost to New Mexico by 13, San Diego State by 14, Nevada by 14, Colorado State by 20, and San Diego State by 16. When they lose, it has been by double digits. Still, they rank 29th on offense, 67th on defense, and have 6 Top 50 wins. Purdue beat 2-seed Tennessee by 4, beat 2-seed Marquette by 3, beat 2-seed Arizona by 8, beat 4-seed Alabama by 6, beat 5-seed Gonzaga by 10, and swept my favorite 3-seed Illinois in the Big 10 winning by 5 & 6. 12 wins for Purdue against Top 50 teams this year. ZERO of those wins were by more than 10 points. I love Purdue, I have them in my Final Four, but I can't pass up 11.5 today.
Grand Canyon +6.5 vs. Alabama
Get ready for some points. Alabama has the #3 offense in the country, #117 defense. Grand Canyon ranks #56 on offense, #42 on defense. Heck of a win on Friday for the Antelopes over Saint Mary's. Now 30-4 on the season. Alabama has only 1 Top 50 win away from home and that was at Mississippi State, SEC hasn't looked the best so far in the Big Dance, lack of defense scares me. Loyal listener DJ is a big fan of the Tide, I think they still win but unless the Lopes go cold shooting, I can't trust the Crimson Tide to cover the number.
Marquette -4 vs. Colorado
Marquette got down, then turned on the jets to win and cover on Friday vs. Western Kentucky. Golden Eagles are Top 20 on both ends of the floor, won at Illinois, beat Kansas in Maui, beat Creighton and Texas at home. Colorado ranks 21st on offense, 43rd on defense. Buffalos have already won a pair of games this week, beat Boise State in the play-in, beat Florida in the 102-100 triller on Friday. I want to grab the points but I'm not sure how much Colorado has left in the tank. Marquette should only be better in Kolek's second game back, I'll lay the points.
San Diego State -5.5 vs. Yale
Last year, #5 San Diego State beat Charleston in the first round by 6, then beat 13-seed Furman by 23 in the second round. This year #5 San Diego State beat UAB by 4 in the first round and get to face another 13-seed in the second round. Yale won a trilling finish over Auburn on Friday. I don't expect a repeat tonight. I have been high on San Diego State all year and the Azteks still have the ingredients to make a run in this tournament. I'll lay the points.
Houston -9.5 vs. Texas A&M
Last 3 games for Texas A&M: Scored 97 against Kentucky, 90 against Florida, and 98 about Nebraska. The Houston D will be a rude awakening today. Good news for A&M, they faced Houston once already this season rallying from 21 down to lose by only 4. Texas A&M has been hot of late, but they have 14 losses and have been uncompetitive several times this year. Lost by 12 at Virginia scoring only 47, lost by 15 to LSU scoring only 53, lost to Alabama by 25, lost at Tennessee by 35 scoring only 51. Frustration could mount early going from easy looks to a suffocating D. I'm sure Kelvin Sampson prepped plenty this week for Texas A&M, I think the Cougars will get a statement win today by double digits.
Baylor -4.5 vs. Clemson
Clemson crushed New Mexico on Friday; Lobos shot just 29.7% from the field in that game. Clemson ranks #25 on offense, #46 on defense, won at Alabama, won at North Carolina, and lost at Duke by only 1 point. Tigers have upside. The numbers say that I should back them today, value on Clemson. Eye test is telling me that Clemson caught New Mexico at the right time, Baylor has the #5 offense and could quickly put the Tigers in a bad spot today. I'll laying the points with the Bears.
Duke -7 vs. James Madison
I tip my cap to James Madison, never trailed on Friday beating Wisconsin by 11. The Dukes scored 27 points off 19 Badger turnovers. Duke ranks 31st in turnover % so I'm not expecting to see a repeat today. Duke ranks #8 on defense, #22 on offense. Blue Devils lost in the RD of 32 last year as the 5-seed, this year I expect them to advance as the 4-seed. The last two losses for Duke are both already in the Sweet 16, maybe the ACC was better than I thought. I think the Blue Devils get some separation and cover the number.
