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My Conference Tournament Results:
1H Unders: 10-9-1, 52.6%, up 0.091 units
Sides: 8-12, 40.0%, down 4.7272 units
WHAT IF Results: (Not betting, just tracking for future reference)
Every Underdog ATS: 10-10, 50.0%, down 0.909 units
Every Underdog ML: 7-13, 35.0%, up 0.43 units
Tonight's 1H Unders:
Missouri State/Murray State Under 65.5
Purdue Fort Wayne/Oakland Under 70.5
Illinois Chicago/Southern Illinois Under 65.5
Evansville/Illinois State Under 64.5
Marshall/Georgia State Under 71.5
Northern Kentucky/Wright State Under 77.5
Texas State/Southern Miss Under 63.5
Georgia Southern/South Alabama Under 71.5
North Alabama/Austin Peay Under 69.5
Milwaukee/Green Bay Under 68.5
Tennessee State/Western Illinois Under 63.5
Lehigh/Lafayette Under 64.5
Cleveland State/Youngstown State Under 71.5
Bucknell/American Under 61.5
Jacksonville/Stetson Under 65.5
Navy/Boston U Under 62.5
SIUE/Morehead State Under 64.5
Valpo/Belmont Under 73.5
Coastal Carolina/Louisiana Under 70.5
Pacific/Pepperdine Under 71.5
Holy Cross/Colgate Under 67.5
ATS Picks:
G1. Missouri State +2 vs. Murray State (from podcast)
Murray State won both games in the regular season. Won @ Missouri State by 24 as a 5.5-point underdog. Won by 10 at home as a 3.5 points favorite. Say it with me......tough to beat a team 3 times as a 6-point or less favorite.
G2. Illinois Chicago +5.5 vs. Southern Illinois (from podcast)
Southern Illinois won both games in the regular season. Salukis won by 3 @ UIC as a 2.5-point favorite, Salukis won by 12 at home as a 6.5-point favorite. Say it with me......tough to beat a team 3 times as a 6-point or less favorite.
G3. North Alabama +4 @ Austin Peay (from podcast)
G4. Lafayette +3.5 vs. Lehigh (from podcast)
The home team is the underdog in tournament play. Lehigh won both meetings during the year. Mountain Hawks won by 4 at home as a 3.5-point favorite, Mountain Hawks won @ the Leopards by 8 as a 3.5-point favorite. Say it with me......tough to beat a team 3 times as a 6-point or less favorite.
G5. Bucknell +5 @ American (from podcast)
Both teams finished 10-8 in the Patriot. American won both meetings during the regular season. Eagles won by 8 @ Bucknell as a 1-point underdog. Eagles won at home by 9 in OT over the Bison as a 4.5-point favorite. Say it with me......tough to beat a team 3 times as a 6-point or less favorite.
G6. South Alabama -2.5 vs. Georgia Southern
South Alabama has won 6 of 8 losing only to Arkansas State during that stretch. Georgia Southern started the year 0-12, finished 8-23 on the season including 3 of 4 wins down the stretch. Both teams beat each other at home, Jaguars are more balanced, so I'll lay the 2.5.
G7. Coastal Carolina +12.5 vs. Louisiana
Louisiana won the only meeting during the season by 8 at home. Ragin Cajuns lost 4 of 5 to end the season plus I give Coastal Carolina a slight edge for already playing in this building on Tuesday.
G8. Belmont -12.5 vs. Valparaiso
Beacons ended an 11-game skid on Sunday beating Illinois State. Belmont won both meeting this year by 9 & 18. Bruins are playing some good basketball winning 7 of 8 including a 14-point win over Southern Illinois, 15-point win @ UIC, 15-win over Missouri State, 22-point win @ Murray State, and a 17-point win over Evansville.
G9. Pacific +10.5 vs. Pepperdine
Both head coaches have been fired, Leonard Perry & Lorenzo Romar. Pepperdine won both meetings by 15 & 19. With the coaching changes, portal discussion, and chaos.....I'll grab the points.
G10. Texas State PK over Southern Miss
Coinflip game to say the least. Texas State won by 5 at home, Southern Miss won by 4 at home. Southern Miss lost 4 of 6 down the stretch, Texas State has won 4 straight plus survived an OT game on this floor on Tuesday. Southern Miss offense ranks 12th in efficiency.
G11. Evansville +3.5 vs. Illinois State
Purple Aces lost 7 straight games to end the year. Illinois State lost to Valparaiso to end the year. Evansville won by 4 at home, Illinois State won by 7 at home. This is Arch Madness, of course I'm going to back a team that has lost 7 straight games.
G12. Oakland -3.5 vs. Purdue Fort Wayne
Oakland lost to Purdue Fort Wayne back in December by 21 at home but them on the road by 8. Grizzlies won 8 of 10 down the stretch. Mastodons started 4-0 in the Horizon, finished 11-9. PFW won on Tuesday over Robert Morris, but I like how Oakland is playing so I'll lay the points.
G13. Cleveland State +9.5 @ Youngstown State
Cleveland State lost the conference opener at Youngstown 94-69, beat them in February at home 81-73. Vikings had good road wins @ Bradley & Purdue Fort Wayne this year, they have some talent. Youngstown State has won 3 straight games, #1 D in the Horizon, #2 O. 9.5 is just a bit too much for me, I'll grab the points.
G14. Jacksonville +6.5 @ Stetson
Glass slipper will likely fall off tonight. 3rd game in 4 days for the Dolphins. Big upset of #1 Eastern Kentucky on Tuesday. Stetson beat Jacksonville at home last week 86-73, beat them by 16 at home back in January. Tournament time is crazy, Jacksonville is the story of the week, I'll grab the points one more time.
G15. Colgate -17.5 vs. Holy Cross
I cashed on Holy Cross already this week, but Colgate is #1 on O, #1 on D. Colgate can turn it on at any moment, 16-2 in the Patriot coming off a subpar 3-point win @ Lehigh. I'll lay the points.
G16. Boston U -3.5 vs. Navy
Boston U has won 5 straight games, beat Navy by 9 at home, lost by 2 on the road. Navy has now won 5 straight games after crushing Loyola MD this week by 6. Short enough number for me to back the home team, I like how the Terriers have looked.
G17. Western Illinois -2 vs. Tennessee State
Impressive debut season for the Leathernecks moving over from the Summit. 13-5 in conference, winning 5 of 6 down the stretch, Top 4 on both ends of the floor. Lost by 1 at home to Tennessee State, beat them by 7 on the road. Tennessee State gets a slight edge for playing on this court last night, but the efficiency metrics force me to lay the points.
G18. Northern Kentucky +7.5 @ Wright State
Watch out for Scott Nagy and the Raiders in this tournament. #1 O in the Horizon, his teams improve during the year. Swept Northern Kentucky this year, won by 7 on the road, won by 6 at home. Northern Kentucky has the #2 D in the Horizon, they just played these guys in this building on Saturday. That favors the underdog, give me the points.
G19. Georgia State -1 vs. Marshall
Teams split during the season. Marshall won the first meeting by 9. Georgia State won by 3 at home on Saturday. Rubber match tonight at a neutral site. Marshall has lost 7 straight games; I don't see that ending today, metrics edge to the Panthers.
G20. Green Bay -1 vs. Milwaukee
I have no pulse on either team. I deferred this pick to the KenPom numbers. He has Green Bay 75-71 so I'm going with Green Bay. I would've bet Milwaukee for what it's worth.
G21. Morehead State -8 vs. SIU Edwardsville
Outstanding effort from the Little E on Wednesday winning by 11 over Eastern Illinois. Teams split during the season, SIUE won by 13 at home, Morehead State won by 11 at home. Eagles of Morehead State are #1 on both ends of the floor, won 14 conference games, won 13 of those by double digits. Yes, I'll lay the points.
