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May 21, 2024

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit. 

 

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1      66-45, 59.5%, up 9.8359 units

@KotaCapperKyle        33-39, 45.8%, down 11.23 units

 

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates (-115)
Logan Webb goes for the Giants; Webb has always been good at home, but this is on the road. He's given up 4 or more runs in 3 of his last 4 road starts. The Pirates rank 26th in runs scored in May so that should help. Martin Perez is on the bump for the Pirates, 4.86 ERA, 1.50 WHIP this season. Last out he allowed 9 runs in 5 innings against Milwaukee. On the bright side, he's only allowed 1 first inning run in 9 starts. I like that number. I also like that these teams rank 25th & 26th in 1st inning runs scored. Let's run with it. 
 
NRFI: Texas Rangers at Philadelphia Phillies (-115)
The Philadelphia Phillies have scored 109 runs in May, 18 more than the #2 scoring team. Phillies are the #1 scoring team in the 1st inning averaging 0.90 runs in the 1st. Eyes wide open wager. Ranger Suarez goes for the Phillies. What stat do you like best? 8-0 record in May, 1.37 ERA, 0.76 WHIP? I'll take my chances with him. Jon Gray goes for the Rangers, 2.08 ERA, 1.17 WHIP on the season. 1.74 ERA on the road. Those numbers look good, but he has struggled early in games. I expect better tonight. 
 
@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Tuesday (dropped in the newsletter)
 
NRFI: Rangers/Phillies (-120)
This play may make folks nervous. The Phillies are the best team in the MLB in the first inning averaging 0.90 runs per game. However, it's been brough up numerous times by Action and I that we will take good pitching over good hitting in the first inning. We have Jon Gray on the mound for the Rangers with a 2-1 record and a 2.08 ERA. Meanwhile, we also have Ranger Suarez for the Phillies with an 8-0 record and a 1.37 ERA. These two pitchers are playing lights out lately, and it's not unusual to look at a NRFI and like it in this matchup. 
 
NRFI: Rockies/Athletics (-105)
This is not as much about the pitching matchup as it is the hitting matchup. Yes, both these pitchers have a high 3 ERA in this game. However, both these teams are not great in the first inning. The A's are averaging only 0.20 per first inning, and the Rockies are only averaging 0.43 runs in the first inning. These two teams have struggled here. Now there's heavy juice in this game on the YRFI because of the ERAs of the pitchers, but I think that the struggle for both of these teams hitting in the first inning is worth the risk for a NRFI here. They can score any other time, but let's keep the first inning clean.