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June 4, 2024

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit. 

 

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1      86-62, 58.1%, up 8.6839 units

@KotaCapperKyle        42-43, 49.4%, down 6.73 units

 

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians (-113)

  • Triston McKenzie gets the call for the Guardians, 3.31 ERA at home, 3.06 ERA in May, 3.27 ERA in the 1st. After giving up 2 or fewer runs in 6 straight games, last 2 he has given up 3 to the Mets and 4 to the Rockies. Bounce back spot against a team that is 6 for 47 against him, .128 BA. Seth Lugo goes for Kansas City, special season in the making with a 9-1 record, 1.72 ERA, 0.86 ERA on the road, 1 inning allowed in the 1st over 12 starts. Can't pass up numbers like that. 

NRFI - Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates (-132)

  • Another big test for Pirates rookie Jared Jones, 3.55 ERA, 1.01 WHIP on the season. 2.32 ERA at home, 2.45 ERA in the 1st inning. Tyler Glasnow will toe the rubber for the Dodgers, 3.04 ERA, 0.91 WHIP. Glasnow has a 1.69 ERA away from home, 2.25 ERA in the 1st inning. It was Dodgers run line or NRFI, I'm going NRFI. 

NRFI - Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins (-130)

  • Jesus Luzardo time for the Marlins, 3.09 ERA at home, 1.75 ERA in May, 2.00 ERA in the 1st inning this year. Ryan Pepiot gets the ball for Tampa Bay, 3.88 ERA, 0.95 WHIP. 12 scoreless innings pitched on the road this season. I'll gladly take my chances with these two on the bump. 

NRFI - San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels (-115)

  • Out with the old, in with the new. I'm going to back a rookie in his MLB debut. 23-year-old Adam Mazur makes his debut tonight for the Padres. He's the #5 prospect in the Padres system, 1.95 ERA in AA this year over 32.1 innings, 7.11 ERA in AAA this year over 19 innings. I'm going to trust the judgement of the Padres organization, if they think he's ready, I'm willing to back him. I do like the fact that he's walked just 9 batters over 51.1 innings pitched. Patrick Sandoval goes for the Angels; no pitching split justifies backing him. 5.34 ERA, 6.32 ERA at home, 5.25 in the 1st. But the Padres rank 25th in OPS vs. lefties and Sandoval had good starts against Pittsburgh, Texas, and the New York Yankees in May tossing 19 innings giving up just 3 runs. I'll look for that type of stuff again tonight. 

NRFI - Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (-115)

  • Shota Imanaga goes for the Cubs; he burned me last time out allowed 7 runs over 4.1 innings at Milwaukee. Great YTD numbers, 1.86 ERA, 1.20 ERA at Wrigley, and he's allowed only 2 first inning runs in 10 starts. Chris Flexen gets the call for the White Sox, 5.50 ERA, but his early innings numbers are excellent allowing just 1 run in the 1st inning over 10 starts. Cubs are 20th in OPS vs. righties. Let's get 6 without a run.