No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit. 

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1      98-73, 57.3%, up 7.2411 units

@KotaCapperKyle        43-44, 49.4%, down 7.28 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles (-128)

• What scares me? No team averages more runs per game than Baltimore, Orioles are #2 in OPS vs. lefties. Max Fried is on the bump for the Braves, 2.93 ERA, 1.02 WHIP. 2.63 ERA on the road, 2.33 ERA at night, 1.86 ERA over his last 7 starts. That's a good. The bad, Fried has allowed 12 runs in the 1^st over 12 starts. Albert Suarez for the O's, 1.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP on the season over 39.1 innings. He's yet to give up a 1^st inning run over 6 starts. Crazy to think before the season that I would be backing a non-roster invite to spring training against the Braves, but I'll do just that. 

NRFI - Miami Marlins at New York Mets (-130)

• What scares me? Mets rank 6^th in OPS vs. lefties. Jesus Luzardo goes for the Marlins, hammered last out allowed 9 runs at Tampa Bay over 4.1 innings. Luzardo is now 2-5 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the season. Mets are a career 25 for 102 vs. Luzardo, .245 BA. For all his troubles this year he's only given up 2 runs in the 1^st over 10 starts. Tylor Megill gets the call for the Mets, 4 starts this year, 3.00 ERA. Struggled last out allowing 5 runs over 5 at Washington, prior to that he shutout the Dodgers for 7 innings. That's baseball. Marlins are 26^th in OPS vs. righties. I'll take my chances. 

NRFI - Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-138)

• Paul Skenes is must see TV for the Pirates. 5 starts, 0 runs allowed in the 1st. Miles Mikolas goes for the Cardinals, 5.32 ERA, 1.28 WHIP. Pirates rank 29^th in OPS vs. righties, I like that number. The Pirates have the 6^th best NRFI %, Cardinals have the 7^th best NRFI % this year. I like that combo, NRFI it is. 

NRFI - New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals (+110)

• I have a feeling that I would be kicking myself if I did the math on how much I've lost this year on Yankee NRFI's. The Yankees rank #1 in YRFI's, Royals rank #5. I know this and still can't stop myself. Brady Singer takes the hill for KC, 2.76 ERA on the year. 2/16 ERA at home. 12 starts, 2 runs allowed in the 1^st with opponents hitting only .125 against. Marcus Stroman for the Yankees, 3.04 ERA, 1.24 WHIP. 1.82 ERA on the road, 1.67 ERA in May. I like good pitchers in bounce back spots, Stroman last only 4.2 giving up 5 against Minnesota, Singer last only 3.2 giving up 3 at Cleveland. 6 outs, that's all I need. Please give me the 6 outs without a run. 

NRFI - Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants (-128)

• Ronel Blanco for the Astros, after 9 starts allowing 2 or fewer runs Blanco has given up 4 runs in back-to-back starts against Minnesota and St. Louis. YTD numbers are still really good with a 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP. Road ERA of 2.08, Giants have the 4^th highest NRFI % this year. Jordan Hicks tonight for San Francisco, 2.82 ERA, 1.19 WHIP on the season. 13 starts, 4 runs allowed in the 1st. That's good enough for me. 

NRFI - Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners (-138)

• I'm doing it again. Rookie debut for Drew Thorpe, #3 prospect in the White Sox system. 1.35 ERA over 60 innings this year in AA. Seattle ranks 24^th in OPS vs. righties so that should help the young 23-year-old. Bryan Woo for the Mariners, 1.07 ERA, 0.53 WHIP after 6 starts. 6 starts, 0 runs allowed, only 1 hit. He's facing the White Sox, sign me up! 

NRFI - Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays (-125)

• Rays rank 28^th in OPS vs. righties, Jameson Taillon goes for the Cubs with a 3.47 ERA. Taillon started the year strong but has now given up 3 or more runs in 5 straight starts. Roughed up last out by the White Sox of all teams, I'm hoping he can find he stuff again at the Trop. 9 starts, 3 runs allowed in the 1st. Zach Eflin makes his 2^nd start since returning from the shelf, 4.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP on the season. The Cubs rank 27^th in OPS since May 1st. Let's give it a shot. 

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Wednesday:

NRFI - Braves/Orioles (-130)

I know some of you may be thinking that these two teams are so solid hitting, why would you bet a NRFI? Well, we have said it numerous times on the podcast that we will take good pitching over good hitting any time we want to bet a NRFI, and that's exactly what we have here. The Braves have Max Fried on the mound with a 6-2 record and a 2.93 ERA. He has dominated the Orioles in years past, as Orioles hitters are a combined .163 average against him with only 3 runs scored in 43 ABs. Meanwhile the Orioles have Albert Suarez on the mound with a 2-0 record and a 1.83 ERA. He has only faced one Braves hitter, who only had one AB against him. This is a new pitcher that the Braves will need time to figure out. Good pitching here will hopefully lead to 0 runs in the first inning. 

YRFI - Philles/Red Sox (+105)

The Phillies are the top team in baseball in terms of runs in the first innings with 0.75 runs in the first inning. They are also the third best team in baseball at hitting a YRFI, hitting at a 37% clip. Although they are facing a pitcher that no one in the lineup has faced in Kutter Crawford, I like the chances for a run here. Meanwhile the Phillies have Zach Wheeler on the mound and the Red Sox have been solid off of him, hitting a combined .327 average with 6 runs in 55 ABs. Solid YRFI team and a solid lifetime hitting team sounds like a YRFI to me. 

NRFI - Pirates/Cardinals (-145)

Mr. Action Junkie got me on this train of betting NRFIs when Paul Skenes is on the mound. I am glad I have followed suit because he has been super solid in the first inning of all of his outings. I like his odds against the Cardinals here, who only hit YURFIs at a 21.9% clip, the 7th worst in baseball. Meanwhile the Pirates are slightly worse than the Cardinals at hitting a YRFI, only doing so at a 21.54% clip. I like two bad first inning teams going at it with solid pitchers starting, so let's hope for a quick inning. 

YRFI - Rockies/Twins (-105)

We have talked all year about good pitching leading to NRFIs, but this game is the opposite, as we have some bad pitchers in this game. The Rockies have Cal Quantrill on the bound with a 5-4 record and a 3.58 ERA. Twins hitters have gotten 8 runs off of him in 93 AB's, so not great numbers but top four batters are hitting over .300 against him lifetime. The Twins are starting Louie Varland. He has really struggled as he has an above 5 ERA on AAA and an above 9 ERA in the majors. He has not found his groove yet. Two bad pitchers in this game sounds like a YRFI is definitely possible here.