No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit. 

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1      104-74, 58.4%, up 10.8221 units

@KotaCapperKyle        46-46, 50.0%, down 5.28 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Wednesday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI - Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants (-142)

• Logan Webb at HOME for the Giants, check. Framber Valdez gets the call for the Astros, 2.67 ERA on the road, 16 innings pitched in June allowing only 2 runs. Giant hitters are a career .250 against Valdez over 44 AB's. The Giants have the 4^th best NRFI % so let's do it. 

NRFI - Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers (-128)

• Reese Olson goes for Detroit, 1.92 ERA at the end of May. First 2 starts of June, not good allowing 13 runs over 9.1 innings against the Red Sox and Brewers. Nationals rank 23^rd in OPS vs. righties and have the 2^nd highest NRFI % in baseball so that should help. Olson has been $$$ in the 1st, 12 starts, 0 runs allowed on only 4 hits. Jake Irvin gets the call for the Nationals, 3.12 ERA, 2.68 ERA on the road, 1.50 ERA in June, 1.38 ERA in the first inning. Sign me up! 

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Wednesday (dropped on the podcast)

Blue Jays/Brewers NRFI (-115)

• Toronto is the top team in the MLB in hitting NRFIs, as they are hitting them at a 86.4% clip. The Brewers are solid at hitting NRFIs as well, as they are hitting them at a 72.7% clip. Now for the pitching splits. The Blue Jays have Chris Bassit on the mound with a 6-6 record and a 3.81 ERA. However, six Brewers batters have faced off against Bassit and are batting a combined .158 against him with only 1 run scored in 38 ABs. The Brewers are bringing out rookie Tobias Myers who has a 2-2 record and a 4.15 ERA. No Blue Jays batters have ever faced off against Myers. It usually takes hitters a little while to adjust to a new pitcher. All of these added together spells out a NRFI for me.

Athletics/Padres NRFI (-135)

• We have a solid pitching matchup in this one. The Athletics have Hogan Harris on the bump, who has had a no decision in each of his four games started this year with a 2.21 ERA and 18 Ks. He has faced two batters for the Padres, and they are both 0-2 against Hogan lifetime. Meanwhile the Padres have Micahel King on the mound with a 5-4 record and a 3.58 ERA. Only three batters on the A’s have faced off against King. Although the A’s hitters have had a decent showing against King lifetime, I am willing to bet they will struggle in the first inning, as they’re hitting NRFIs at a 83.8% clip, which is the third best in all of baseball. Let’s take advantage of the solid pitching matchup here, and hope for three up and three down on both sides of the inning.

Guardians/Reds NRFI (-115)

• Both of these teams are about in the middle of the league in terms of NRFI hit percentage hitting at a 73.4% and 72.4% rate respectively. The starting pitchers are going to be fairly new for these two teams. The Guardians are bringing out Tanner Biebee with a 4-1 record and a 3.73 ERA. Only one Red has had an AB against him lifetime, and that batter failed to get a hit off of him. The Reds are bringing out Nick Lodolo with a 6-2 record and a 2.92 ERA. Only three batters on the Guardians have faced Lodolo. Two of them are a combined 0-5 against him. His biggest hurdle for getting out of the inning clean? Jose Ramirez. Ramirez is 2 for 2 off of him lifetime with a HR and 3 RBIs. If Lodolo can get past Ramirez, this should be a clean inning. I will always be willing to bet against just one person when it comes to a NRFI, so let’s hope for a quick inning.