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June 21, 2024

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit. 

 

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1      120-82, 59.4%, up 15.434 units

@KotaCapperKyle        47-48, 49.5%, down 6.58 units

 

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Friday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers (-128)
Jack Flaherty will toe the rubber for the Tigers, 3.01 ERA, 0.95 WHIP on the season. 2.16 ERA over the last 7 starts, White Sox rank 30th in OPS vs. righties. Erick Fedde gets the call for the White Sox, 3.09 ERA on the season, 1.80 ERA in the 1st inning. He's given up 2 or fewer runs in 10 of 15 starts, Tigers rank 22nd in OPS vs. righties. Numbers work for me. 
 
NRFI - Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds (-108)
Arm direction splits sold me on this one. Reds rank 26th in OPS vs. righties, Red Sox rank 10th in OPS vs. lefties. Weaker split for both teams sticks. Kutter Crawford is on the bump for Boston, 3.54 ERA, 2.62 ERA on the road, 3.00 ERA in the 1st inning. Andrew Abbott goes for Cincinnati, 3.42 ERA, 3.34 ERA at home. Please don't look at his 1st inning numbers, or you might get sick to your stomach. He's allowed 2 or fewer earned in 10 of 14 starts, body of work is strong enough for me. 
 
NRFI - Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins (-115)
This is my stubborn streak coming out again. Mariners burned me on Wednesday & Thursday, I want payback tonight. Seattle ranks 21st in OPS vs. lefties, Trevor Rogers has been really good in 3 of his last 4 starts for the Marlins dropping his ERA from 6.11 to 5.09. I think he can get me the first 3 outs that I need. George Kirby goes for Seattle, 3.54 ERA, 2.93 ERA over his last 7. Marlins rank 28th in OPS vs. righties. Let's get 6. 
 
NRFI - Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers (-111)
Nathan Eovaldi for the Rangers, 3.15 ERA, 2.09 ERA at home, 2.45 ERA in the 1st. Added bonus, bounce back spot after lasting just 3 innings at Seattle giving up 4. Brady Singer for the Royals, 3.39 ERA, 1.93 ERA in the 1st. Rangers rank 18th in OPS vs. righties, ranked 29th in OPS this month. NRFI it is. 
 
@KotaCapperKyle Card for Friday (dropped in the newsletter)
 
NRFI - Tigers/White Sox (-125)
This one is particularly risky. The numbers say that the splits do not work out in the favor of the NRFI, as the Tigers hitters are hitting very well off of White Sox pitcher Erick Fedde lifetime. However, he's having one of the best starts to a season of his career with a 5-1 record and a 3.09 ERA. I think he can hold the Tigers off for an inning, and I'll always bet on the White Sox to not score a run. 
 
NRFI - Brewers/Padres (-125)
Good pitching will always dominate good hitting, and that's exactly what I think will happen here in the first inning. Colin Rea is on the mound for the Brewers spotting a 6-2 record and a 3.29 ERA. Padres batters are hitting .273 off of him lifetime. Meanwhile the Padres have Dylan Cease on the mound with a 6-6 record and a 3.95 ERA. He has dominated the Brewers lifetime, as they have hit a combined .105 off of him lifetime. Dominant pitching leads to NRFIs, so let's go for it. 

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