No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

NRFI - Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers (-136 on FanDuel)

• This bet is a great example of why I'm at peace with flat betting. I missed a good pricing opportunity last night, mentally I can accept winning less vs. losing more if I played to win a full unit. Phillies are 3^rd best in OPS vs. lefties so that is a major concern. Tarik Skubal is coming off back-to-back subpar starts on the road. I love good pitchers in bounce back spots. Skubal has a 2.50 ERA on the season, 0.97 WHIP, 2.01 ERA at home, 1.80 ERA in the 1st. Ranger Suarez goes for Philadelphia, 1.75 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 1.94 ERA on the road. Tigers rank 25^th in OPS vs. lefties. No regrets, I like this bet.

NRFI - Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (-115 on DraftKings)

• Hitter friendly park NRFI? Little scary. Mitch Keller for the Pirates, 3.11 ERA, 2.40 ERA in the 1st, 1.65 ERA over his last 7 starts. Hunter Greene for the Reds, 3.35 ERA, 1.80 ERA in the 1st. Reds are a career .231 against Keller, Pirates are a career .211 against Greene. Teams rank 24^th and 29^th in OPS vs. righties. Let's get 6 without a run. 

NRFI - Oakland Athletics at LA Angels (-128 on FanDuel)

• Mitch Spence has been a nice surprise this season, 3.86 ERA, 3.65 ERA on the road. Angels rank 24^th in OPS vs. righties this season and have the 10^th highest NRFI %. Tyler Anderson for the Angels, 2.48 ERA on the season, 2.00 ERA over the last 7 games. Oakland sticks are a career 4 for 30 off Anderson. Oakland ranks 19^th in OPS vs. lefties this year, 5^th highest NRFI %. Let's do it. 

@KotaCapperKyle's Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

Phillies/Tigers NRFI (-120)

• I would argue that we see two of the best pitchers in baseball in this game. We got Ranger Suarez for the Phillies with a 10-1 record and a 1.75 ERA, both top in the league. He has had the best season of his career by a very large margin, and has not shown any signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, the Tigers have Tarik Skubal on the mound with a 8-3 record and a 2.50 ERA. He had his worst outing of the season last game where he had 4 earned runs and a loss. Certainly an outlier for him. I expect a big bounce back game from him in this one, and a solid early start overall.

Marlins/Royals NRFI (+110)

• We got an interesting matchup here in terms of pitching. The Marlins have Yonny Chironos on the mound. The 30 year old is making only his second start of the season this year, and in his first he went 5 innings, allowed 2 runs, and had six strikeouts against the Cardinals. Lifetime, the Royals are batting .300 against him, so not great numbers favoring the pitcher. However, the Royals are still a solid NRFI team, hitting at a 72.1% clip. I can trust them to not get a run here. Meanwhile, the Royals are starting Seth Lugo, who is having one of the best starts to a season of his career with a 10-2 record and a 2.42 ERA. He has absolutely dominated the Marlins hitters lifetime, as six batters have gone up against him, and they are hitting a combined .065 against him.

Dodgers/White Sox NRFI (+105)

• The Dodgers have second year pitcher Bobby Miller on the mound. He has struggled this season with a 1-1 record and a 6.00 ERA. However, he had a very solid season last year, so his ability to peak can come at any time, and I could see that here against one of the worst teams in baseball. Meanwhile, the White Sox have Chris Flexin on the mound, and to say that this season has been a struggle for him is an understatement. He has a 2-6 record and a 5.03 ERA. However, the Dodgers aren’t dominant against him lifetime by any means, as they are a combined .226 off of him lifetime. The batters in the top of the lineup are all batting below .220 off him. He can shut them down for one inning.