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July 31, 2024

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit. 

 

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1      170-124, 57.8%, up 14.6091 units

@KotaCapperKyle        54-57, 48.6%, down 9.88 units

 

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Wednesday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI - Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays (-120 on FanDuel)
Taj Bradley for the Rays, 2.43 ERA, 1.01 WHIP. Check, I'm good with the first 3 outs. Roddery Munoz for the Marlins, 5.61 ERA, 6.37 ERA over his last 7 starts, 4.91 ERA on the road. Nothing screams NRFI, but my gut says that we have a slow scoring start today in St. Pete. 
 
NRFI - Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers (-146 on FanDuel)
Chris Sale for the Braves, I'm good with that. Freddy Peralta for the Brewers, 3.94 ERA, 3.05 ERA over his last 7, 6.43 ERA in the 1st inning. Peralta has absolutely killed me. Today he cashes. NRFI it is. 
 
NRFI - Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (-113 on FanDuel)
Drew Thorpe for the White Sox, 4.81 ERA in the show so far, 1.35 ERA over 60 innings in the minors this year. He has upside so I'll trust him to get me the first 3. Brady Singer for the Royals, 2.82 ERA, 1.18 WHIP. Give me the NRFI. 
 
NRFI - Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks (-125 on DraftKings)
Zac Gallen at home for Arizona, check. MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals, 4.51 ERA, 7.63 ERA over his last 7, but he has a nice 2.14 ERA in the first inning this year. Crazy series, I expect a normal game today. 
 
NRFI - LA Dodgers at San Diego Padres (-138 on FanDuel)
I'm going with @KotaCapperKyle on this one. My gut says the Padres hit Kershaw today, my gut says Cease will have a regression game today. My wife says that I'm wrong most of the time. Let's go NRFI. 

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Wednesday (dropped on the podcast)

Dodgers/Padres NRFI (-125 on FanDuel)

  • I’ll always say that when I bet NRFIs, it is strictly due to better pitching over better hitting. This one really holds true in this game. What a great pitching matchup we have in this one. It’s Clayton Kershaw day for those who celebrate. Kershaw made his first start of the season last week where he gave up two runs in four innings pitched with six strikeouts. Not a bad showing for your first appearance after surgery. Lifetime, Padres batters are hitting .259 off of Kershaw in 158 ABs. Meanwhile the Padres are starting Dylan Cease. Cease has been solid this season with a 10-8 record, a 3.50 ERA, and is leading the league with 168 strikeouts. Lifetime, Dodgers batters are hitting .208 off of Cease in 72 ABs. With two solid pitchers going at it and success being shown against them lifetime, that has me feeling a NRFI.

Rangers/Cardinals NRFI (-110 on DraftKings)

  • This game is going to be interesting, as we have a matchup of battle of old vs. battle of new. Andrew Heeney is getting the call for the Rangers, and he has struggled this season with a 4-10 record and a 3.77 ERA. He has been very solid against the Cardinals lifetime, allowing them to bat a mere .188 with no runs allowed in 32 ABs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are starting Michael McGreevy. If you’re sitting here and thinking, I have not heard that name before, that would be because he is making his MLB debut. In the minors he has a 5-7 record with a 4.45 ERA. Not the best of numbers, but every year he is improving. I have noticed that teams will rally for players making their MLB debut, and I expect the Cardinals to do the same, especially in the first inning.

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