Game Preview: San Jose State @ USC
USC is a legit Top 10 team, National Title contender. USC has won the last 2 meetings against San Jose State by a combined score of 86-10 and are currently favored by 30.5 points in this one. USC has Nevada on deck, no potential look ahead spot for the Trojans. I struggle with spreads like this, we know the clear talent edge is on the USC side so to me the bigger factor is how a coach like Lincoln Riley tends to manage games like this.
Let's review lines of 21+ for Riley over the last 5 years:
2022 vs. Rice (-32), won ATS 66-14
2022 vs. Arizona State (-25), lost ATS 42-25
2022 vs. California (-21), lost ATS 41-35
2022 vs. Colorado (-34), won ATS 55-17
2021 vs. Tulane (-32), lost ATS 40-35
2021 vs. Western Carolina (-50), won ATS 76-0
2021 @ Kansas (-38), lost ATS 35-23
2020 vs. Missouri State (-42), won ATS 48-0
2020 vs. Kansas State (-27), lost ATS and SU 38-35
2020 vs. Kansas (-38), won ATS 62-9
2020 vs. Baylor (-21), lost ATS 27-14
2019 vs. Houston (-23), lost ATS 49-31
2019 vs. South Dakota (-45), won ATS 70-14
2019 @ UCLA (-23), won ATS 48-14
2019 vs. Texas Tech (-27), won ATS 55-16
2019 @ Kansas (-33), lost ATS 45-20
2019 vs. West Virginia (-32), won ATS 52-14
2019 @ Kansas State (-23), lost ATS and SU 48-41
2018 vs. UCLA (-29), lost ATS 49-21
2018 vs. Army (-30), lost ATS 28-21
2018 vs. Baylor (-22), won ATS 66-33
2018 vs. Kansas State (-24), won ATS 51-14
2018 vs. Oklahoma State (-21), lost ATS 48-47
2018 vs. Kansas (-34), lost ATS 55-40
Summary:
Riley ATS over the L5 years when favored by 21 or more: 11-13 (45.8%)
Not enough of an edge for me so let's dig deeper.
Game total is 64. How about this? 20 of those 24 games have gone over this total of 64 including the last 6. San Jose State has 9 starters back on offense. This is the angle I was looking for.
My Pick: San Jose State @ USC Over 64 (-110)
