Match Stats 2023

So we're now in the winding down stages of the residency match for the 2023 year. We've got maybe a few applicants out there still trying to secure up the. Remaining programs that have been unmatched or looking for those programs, but for the majority of people, the match is over and you were either successful or unsuccessful. And if you're unsuccessful and don't know what to do or still want to pursue it, there's tons of options out there. Reach out to us, we can help you. But what did you think about this year overall? What are your overall impressions, Taylor? About the 20 really? The 20 22, 20 23 match.

Well, Sean, I think one, we were right.

We were right. I love being right.

We had good predictive models. We must have input good variables into our predicting equation. So I think but overall it's still just surprising just to really grasp and think about how much it has changed over the past few years and just how the balances have tit the scales and everything from, just a few years ago, even to up till now. So I, I'm just excited and optimistic about the future, but, there could be a lot of change coming as well. With that, so we're gonna break that down for y'all on the episode today.

Yeah. So let's start. So now, last time we talked about just phase one. So some of the stats are gonna sound a little different today because we're looking at the combined stats. So if you're on the Match website, these are gonna be all under the combined phase one and two. So they're gonna sound a little bit higher. And, and they're gonna be a couple hundred above what we were last time. So every time we say 20 22, 20 23, we're talking about combined. So just to update. To go through here. Let's just take it in the same process we did last time. Let's start with just like the number of participants participating in the match total. So we had 606,486 in 2022 who had registered for the match. These are the ones that had signed up, paid that initial registration fee. So in 2023, that number dropped to 5,754. And then just one more stat here, Taylor, to combine with that one. So the number actually participating in the match, these are the ones that submitted rank order lists. We had 5,427 and 2022, and that dropped to 5,011 in 2023.

Yeah. Pretty significant decline on both ends of that, and I just want to even throw it back a couple years, even more than that, and, and just to get perspective, because I, I, I think, the class of 2020, they had the, they probably had it maybe the hardest. But back in 2020, the number of applicants PGY one applicants enrolled in the match was 7,535, and then 6,185 participated in the match. So we're talking a difference of, about a thousand applicants. So from 2020 to 2023. So we see that steady decline and that's just, to me, that's just fascinating.

Yeah, that's a huge Especially now we're seeing that trend, that trend downwards. And so the drop is surprising.

I think another thing that's interesting in the big overarching data that you're probably interested in, the number of applicants that matched overall from 2023, it was 4,099, which is down slightly from the year before which was 4,152, so about 50. Fewer candidates match, but you have to keep that in context. So the number participating was down almost over 400. So proportionally you're still seeing a higher percentage match, which we, we did see 82% match this year compared to 77% that you'd be here before.

Yeah, I, I we had predicted greater than 80% and then there's your greater than 80%. Overall, a 5% change from the year before to now is pretty huge. Just to think about the fact that we have 5% more folks participating, which next year we might even be, I would, I would just settle a prediction and say, next year's probably gonna be more than 85%.

I think we might see maybe a little bit less. Of a percentage increase that match. But I do think maybe like 83 or 84 would be my, probably 84 if I had to hedge my bets and, and put in my very early bet for next year. So mark it down.

I'll hold you to it.

Deal. And I just want to even, again, I like to go back to this 2020 year because that was the peak of competition and number of applicants participating in this process. But that year, 3,904 applicants matched. Which is less than that have matched even this year and the year prior, and there was only a 63% match rate. So you see an absolute increase of almost 20%, which is just mind boggling to me from 2020 to 2023.

And we're talking about like, oh man, the mat rates are so much better. That doesn't mean it's not still competitive. If you're looking for a specific program, your chances of getting your top choice, it's still competitive. Don't take anything we're saying today is a, oh, I don't have to try as hard. You still wanna try, you still want to get your top choice. So there it's not a hundred percent yet. So we're not to that range where you've got a really, really good chance of getting the exact one you want. There's still gonna be probably a little competition there.

Yeah. And still one in five won't match. So you have to keep that in mind. That's still not. Great odds, but it's better than what we have had before. So, some optimism, but very cautious optimism, I would say. In terms of the effort and everything that you put into this process, what do you think will happen though, Sean, not just this next year, but let's say five years down the road? Where do you think we'll be at that point?

Five years down the road, can I have you hold that thought because there's something I want to talk about with the unfilled one that answers that question.

Okay.

So you've got a number of positions offered in PGY one in 2022 being 4,242 that went up, so that's good. We talked about it still rose. It stayed pretty steady, but still rose slightly. It went up to 4,249. So seven more positions were offered in 2023 than in 2022. The PGY two positions also went up by a close to 20. Now the unfilled PGY positions went up from 74 to one 14, from 20 22, 20 23, so, we've got more programs, more positions, and now we're having more unfilled positions, which just logically it's probably from, less candidates applying to those programs. Right.

Yeah, and they're still gonna have some degree of. Selectivity in terms of which programs they're applying to and that they're ranking and things of that nature. So it just makes sense that there's gonna be more. But again, let's go back to 2020, Sean, for those numbers.

You love that?

Five unfilled positions, five unfilled PGY one positions.

I remember that year it was

nuts

you asked me earlier, Taylor, about what am I thinking is gonna happen in five years and I think we're seeing it already with these unfilled PGY one positions. So just break. So we have three general PGY one s, not the two year ones, but just three general ones. We have, the pharmacotherapy ones. I'm sorry, pharmacy practice once we have community managed care. So in 2022, if you just look at the general pharmacy practice and then community, you had 20 unfilled pharmacy practice. You had 51 unfilled communities. So most of the unfilled positions after the total match was over was community positions. This year it flip flopped. We have 65. Like you were saying, 65 unfilled general ones, and only 38 unfilled community. So there actually was more, more. General positions open. Now there's in the thousands of general PGY one positions and there's only a couple hundred communities. So overall the ratio is still, there's a higher percent of unfilled community, but we're seeing this flip flop now, combined with that, this is the jaw dropper right here, is that the number of PGY one community positions that were offered. A dropped from 374 last year to 339 this year. That's my, that is it. That summarizes my, what's gonna happen in five years? This is my prediction, is that you're gonna start to see some of these programs that may have gone multiple years unfilled, or maybe even just one year unfilled start to close down their residency programs. We're seeing a drop in community, which is probably why there's less unfilled community, there's less to choose from. We didn't see it this year with general ones, but I think we're gonna start to see some of these, especially these more esoteric, more unique ones, start to close down their programs to match the falling applicant rate.

Yeah. So I think that, yeah, from a program side, I would agree with you. I think that that's the trend that we're going towards. Fewer candidates participating in the match, fewer matching, overall pursuing residency, you might shut down some of the doors of those programs that are not filling from year to year. So you'll see fewer. But my other thought is, I wonder too about pharmacy school enrollment and how. The, job market dictates, demand for pharmacy, school enrollment and if that might sway back into the direction of, balancing that supply and demand aspect. We might see in a few years if there's a high demand for pharmacists and more and more filling those applicant seats. Admissions into pharmacy school. I wonder if we might see an uptick in the future of applicants, maybe not as much as we had in the past, but some that might sway it a little bit, but hopefully it's balancing out a little bit.

I agree with both of us next year. I think it's going to jump a little higher in the eighties in terms of percent matched, but I think we'll hit a plateau where even though the applicants might still be drop in, we're not gonna see a higher match rate cuz in all realness, I don't think you'd ever see a hundred percent match rate because that means that the most unqualified candidate in the entire pool of applicants matched. And that's probably not gonna be the case, cuz there's probably gonna be someone out there who's pursuing postgraduate training, who doesn't have the tenacity and the academics and the know-how to be able to be successful and programs are gonna identify that. So I don't think we'll ever see a hundred percent match rate.

Oh, definitely not. And my optimistic goal would be somewhere between 85 maybe up to 90%. I think med school their match rates are like mid nineties and obviously, Residency isn't a requirement for pharmacy practice at this point, but having more opportunities available I think is good for our profession and the applicants who are pursuing those positions. I just wanted to mention this for completeness sake, but PGY two programs, unfilled positions went from 1 46 to 1 42 this year. So a little bit of a decrease about the same. But what's interesting is when you look at the types of programs that are not filling or remain unfilled afterwards, I think the one that strikes me the most is the

say am care.

No. Is the PGY two and health system administration and leadership, went from nine or had nine filled positions and 26 unfilled positions, which is. Quite a lot, and I bet a lot of that comes from most of those types of people who are interested in pursuing administration and leadership probably pursue the combined programs. PGY one, PGY two s, especially those that are accompanied by a master's program. So could see maybe some of those types of programs fizzle out a little bit. There's also a lot of ambulatory care opportunities that remain unfilled,

There are those am care opportunities. I think the PGY two programs are feeling some of The squeeze sometimes you'd have folks pursuing a PGY two just cuz they're not quite sure what to do with their PGY one and they're looking at jobs, but they're not seeing a job that's really peaking their interest. So it's the old staying in school for longer until something good comes open or you figure out what you want to do with your career. PGY two is another, like gives you an extra year to figure things out, gives you that extra training and specialty. So I think we're finding a lot of PGY one s are starting to be like, oh, I can get the job I want right out of PGY one. I don't need to do additional training. So we're seeing that

Yeah. I also wonder if some of it is, the complexity of pharmacy school training nowadays is higher than it was 10 years ago. With all the changes in some of our accreditation standards and the things that the students are being asked to do, so I wonder if they're just in a sense burnt out of, having, being in that learner role and they're just ready to start their career. So they choose to forego a PGY two, whereas maybe before they wouldn't have. But that's just speculation. I don't have data to support that.

And then once I'm looking at this again it's not all PGY two programs. It's specific professions here that are suffering in PGY two, like overall numbers, there was more positions in PGY two, there was less unfilled. So that would tell us that it's actually doing better.

Yeah.

When you look at these individual ones, you're starting to see these like maybe AM care is not as popular as it used to be for certain reasons. Or maybe we're just looking at flukes one year and it's gonna reverse itself the next year.

Which I'm surprised by because I feel like I see a lot of potential opportunities with ambulatory care and I feel like that's a huge gap that pharmacy can fill in terms of. The lack of primary, the shortage of primary care providers, I feel like that's a huge gap that pharmacists could fill. So, whereas like some of the other opportunities potentially could be a little bit oversaturated.

One of my mentors would say, and this was back in like 2015, but if you go look 20 years in the future, you're gonna have these massive I C U towers that are gonna specialize in the most advanced critical care and that's it. And everything else is gonna be outpatient. So no more, step down units in the hospital or just like general medicine in the hospital. Like everything's gonna be handled outpatient other than like critical cases.

Yeah. Be prepared to pivot.

And that's what I'm saying, like, I see AM care jobs open all the time, so it surprises me that we don't have more people looking at it,

not, to dissuade our listeners, from pursuing what you're passionate about, but these are just us rambling

on What he meant to say was, this is just Sean rambling Well bringing it back home, keeping us on track.

Well, I, I, speaking of that, I, I think that's all the time we have

today

but No what Sean, just like if you were to, if you were to summarize, the stats from this, this year, just what we've talked about, how would you summarize it in one to two sentences?

I would say better opportunities for candidates. Still a little competitive, but definitely worth checking out post-graduate training as an option because it's not impossible.

Yeah. Trending in the right direction. I'll, I'll leave it in

that like that one better.

All right, well then I'll close on that and appreciate you all listening and if you have any questions about phase one or phase two or just the match in general, any of the statistics and the trends that we're seeing, feel free to reach out to us on our social media or on our website. Thank you for listening.