Economic Outlook 22nd April 2020

Adam, Rupesh and Kwasi kindly allowed me to record our call where we discuss some topics on the subject of the economic outlook.

We flipped things round so Adam hosted the discussion and did a tremendous job too.

As a reminder;

Kwasi Affum was on episode 11 and is a banker at Barclays, specialising in Risk Management and also invests in property.

Adam Lawrence was on episode 14 and previously worked in wealth management and is a portfolio holder of residential properties and bolt on businesses.

Rupesh Tailor makes his first appearance on The Rodcast. Rupesh has been and analyst and investor in the high yield market since 2001. He is the CEO & founder of Everest Research, a research company that specialises in distressed debt and the whole capital structure of businesses and provides truly exceptional reports to Hedge Funds and institutional investors on a range of investment options. You can find out more about them here https://www.everestresearch.co.uk

Some of the questions we discuss are;

What do you see happening to people's Disposable incomes?

Do you see any costs of living increasing over the next 12 months?

How do you think oil will impact the economy over the next 2 years and how have this week's events influenced thoughts on deflationary risk versus inflationary/hyper/stagflation?

How do you think the £ will fare against the euro and dollar

At what point do you think inflation will start (if at all) and will it just be on the costs of goods and services and when do you think economic growth will pick up.

Local Housing Allowance (LHA) rates have gone up meaning yields for investment properties have increased at the lower end of residential property, possibly providing a floor.

Over 50% of residential properties are owned outright and help to buy has been extended. What do you think will happen to house prices in general and do you think the above points provide a floor to any price drops.

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