E10: Prediction markets are a trillion dollar opportunity. Why aren’t they working yet?

This week on The Riff, Erik and Byrne talk about why you should ignore the 2024 presidential election news cycle, the barriers to the success of prediction markets, why the United States can't be a net exporter, and more.

The Riff is sponsored by Shopify: https://shopify.com/momentofzen for a $1/month trial period.

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The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: https://turpentine.co

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We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

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LINKS:

Byrne's writing: https://thediff.co

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X / TWITTER:

@eriktorenberg (Erik)

@byrnehobart (Byrne)

@turpentinemedia (Turpentine)

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TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(00:50) Byrne talks about why we should ignore stuff about politics for this 2024 election

(07:35) The underrated impact of either a Biden or Trump presidency

(12:12) The barriers to the success of prediction markets

(16:27) Sponsor | Shopify

(18:10) Prediction markets for career success

(24:20) The economics of information and the give-to-get model

(30:53) Mass adoption of prediction markets

(35:35) Why do companies by expensive headquarters?

(45:10) Industry talent cycles

(51:32) Russia and China - build economic blocks from net exporters

(56:55) Wrap

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The Riff is a production from Turpentine

Producer: Sam Kaufman

Editor: Seven Morris

For guest or sponsorship inquiries please contact Sam@turpentine.co